claremont

Offer Sheet - July 1,2020

29 posts in this topic

Looking at the Expiring RFA’s for this year

Mikhail Sergachev - will cap strapped Tampa Bay offer him in excess of 8.4M for a term contract? Based on the cap limit speculated at $84-$86m TBAY will have $7.8M-$9.8m to spend and will have to replace 2 other D and 4 forwards barring any trades. 
So the question is - Do the Habs make an offer for LD Sergachev and give up a first, second and third pick?  I would say yes based on our prospect pool 

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According to some players, Daly's projected Cap increase to $84-88 million has virtually chance of happening, mainly because of the current escrow situation. For the players to lose less money to escrow, it's in their best interest to have a lower Cap. Therefore, depeding on negotiations with the NHLPA, it may not even reach the minimum projection of $84 million next season.

Anyway, I agree that Sergachev is a really interesting offer sheet target. I'd definitely give up next year's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for him, the question is though would he be willing to sign with us after we traded him? Another interesting target would be Dubois, but Columbus has plenty of Cap space so chances are they'd match any offer.

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I'm not paying Sergachev 8.4 million. We would be giving up a 1, 2 and 3 for a bad contract

I'm all for offer sheets but I'm not for overpaying a guy so the former team doesn't match

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Posted (edited)

8 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I'm not paying Sergachev 8.4 million. We would be giving up a 1, 2 and 3 for a bad contract

I'm all for offer sheets but I'm not for overpaying a guy so the former team doesn't match

But isn't overpaying the only way to actually get teams not to match? Going in half-assed and offering a guy a reasonable contract won't cut it, of course the other team will match the offer.

Edited by ChiLla
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2 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

But isn't overpaying the only way to actually get teams not to match? Going in half-assed and offering a guy a reasonable contract won't cut it, of course the other team will match the offer.

I think the odds are always against offer sheets but I see no reason in not trying, including Sergachev

I don't think its winning to overpay for a guy and then fork over a bunch of draft picks. How is that ever going to be a good thing?

RFAs might be worth overpaying a little, after all they are young and could be ready to take the next step but there's a limit. 

Sergachev at 5 or even 6 might scare off Tampa enough, especially if Cap doesn't increase enough.

If I'm going to spend 8 million, might as well do it in the UFA market and keep my picks 

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1 minute ago, habsisme said:

I think the odds are always against offer sheets but I see no reason in not trying, including Sergachev

I don't think its winning to overpay for a guy and then fork over a bunch of draft picks. How is that ever going to be a good thing?

RFAs might be worth overpaying a little, after all they are young and could be ready to take the next step but there's a limit. 

Sergachev at 5 or even 6 might scare off Tampa enough, especially if Cap doesn't increase enough.

If I'm going to spend 8 million, might as well do it in the UFA market and keep my picks 

Yeah, agreed that it's preferrable not to overpay and lose picks, but I'm sure Tampa will easily match a 5 million or 6 million offer for Sergachev. He'll be 22 next season and already has 3 full seasons under his belt. He's strong, good offensively, and now plays all situations on one of the best teams in the league. I also think there's still some room for development given his age. That's the kind of player I'd be willing to overpay for, especially since we had tons of unused Cap space in the past couple of years. Yes, we may need that Cap space in 2021, but I'll cross that bridge when I get there.

It's nice to dream but realistically I don't see Sergachev sign here. He'd be leaving a true contender for a middling team that has already traded him once. He'd also be leaving Florida for Montreal, so you'd have to account for tax differences and the whole sunshine state vs. Canadian winter thing. Not going to happen.

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3 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

Yeah, agreed that it's preferrable not to overpay and lose picks, but I'm sure Tampa will easily match a 5 million or 6 million offer for Sergachev. He'll be 22 next season and already has 3 full seasons under his belt. He's strong, good offensively, and now plays all situations on one of the best teams in the league. I also think there's still some room for development given his age. That's the kind of player I'd be willing to overpay for, especially since we had tons of unused Cap space in the past couple of years. Yes, we may need that Cap space in 2021, but I'll cross that bridge when I get there.

It's nice to dream but realistically I don't see Sergachev sign here. He'd be leaving a true contender for a middling team that has already traded him once. He'd also be leaving Florida for Montreal, so you'd have to account for tax differences and the whole sunshine state vs. Canadian winter thing. Not going to happen.

I disagree on overpaying but I think most RFAs are looking to get paid the most. For sure he'll take taxes into account but if negotiations don't go well in Tampa, I'd see him signing whomever gave him the most money. I don't think Aho WANTED  to come here but he wanted his money first and foremost

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3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I disagree on overpaying but I think most RFAs are looking to get paid the most. For sure he'll take taxes into account but if negotiations don't go well in Tampa, I'd see him signing whomever gave him the most money. I don't think Aho WANTED  to come here but he wanted his money first and foremost

Agreed on the money aspect in general but that can go hand in hand with overpaying. As for Aho, I think he was wiling to come here. Montreal is generally an attractive destination for European players, especially in comparison to Carolina. Also, we didn't really overpay for Aho. The offer sheet was very reasonable in my opinion, which is also why Carolina had no qualms matching it once it became clear Dundon was fine with the front-loaded structure. According to reports, the Hurricanes were trying to lowball him in negotiations so MB made his move, we didn't get the player because MB wasn't bold enough.

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46 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I'm not paying Sergachev 8.4 million. We would be giving up a 1, 2 and 3 for a bad contract

I'm all for offer sheets but I'm not for overpaying a guy so the former team doesn't match

$8.45 mill was the maximum to pay while giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Quite possible he could be obtained for the lower range of $6.5 million 

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15 minutes ago, claremont said:

$8.45 mill was the maximum to pay while giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Quite possible he could be obtained for the lower range of $6.5 million 

6.5 i think would be worth it. Its a bit of an overpay but you gotta hope he takes another step

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I’m generally not a big fan of the offer sheet. They almost never work, and the cost is set so high it’s rarely worth it. But there are exceptional circumstances. This one in particular that you have mentioned is a tough one. The compensation going back is tolerable, but that’s a hefty contract we’d have to commit to... I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility, but I’d also take another hard look at the trade market. Colorado doesn’t seem to interested in moving Byram, but we might be able to wiggle Girard or Graves out of there. That also might be a suitable solution, Girard would be a particularly nice fit alongside Weber. Girard is basically everything we hoped Mete would be, and even if it cost is something similar to the offersheet compensation package, at least we wouldn’t be stuck with a long term $8 million contract.

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2 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

I’m generally not a big fan of the offer sheet. They almost never work, and the cost is set so high it’s rarely worth it. But there are exceptional circumstances. This one in particular that you have mentioned is a tough one. The compensation going back is tolerable, but that’s a hefty contract we’d have to commit to... I wouldn’t rule it out as a possibility, but I’d also take another hard look at the trade market. Colorado doesn’t seem to interested in moving Byram, but we might be able to wiggle Girard or Graves out of there. That also might be a suitable solution, Girard would be a particularly nice fit alongside Weber. Girard is basically everything we hoped Mete would be, and even if it cost is something similar to the offersheet compensation package, at least we wouldn’t be stuck with a long term $8 million contract.

Girard has a 7 year deal at $5m per - that’s a long term risk contract to assume despite his youth. Sergachev IMO is a better dman so he will likely get a minimum 5 year term and I would prefer to avoid any contracts longer than 5. Graves - I haven’t seen enough of him playing with an AVs high octane offense -distorts some stats? For a late 4th rounder he sure has blossomed- I might be inclined to wait for one of ours before we give up too much. Look how overrated Tyson Barrie has turned out coming from the avs so Graves makes me nervous 

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6 hours ago, claremont said:

Looking at the Expiring RFA’s for this year

Mikhail Sergachev - will cap strapped Tampa Bay offer him in excess of 8.4M for a term contract? Based on the cap limit speculated at $84-$86m TBAY will have $7.8M-$9.8m to spend and will have to replace 2 other D and 4 forwards barring any trades. 
So the question is - Do the Habs make an offer for LD Sergachev and give up a first, second and third pick?  I would say yes based on our prospect pool 

And risk the chance of picking 1st overall in 2021?

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10 hours ago, claremont said:

Girard has a 7 year deal at $5m per - that’s a long term risk contract to assume despite his youth. Sergachev IMO is a better dman so he will likely get a minimum 5 year term and I would prefer to avoid any contracts longer than 5. Graves - I haven’t seen enough of him playing with an AVs high octane offense -distorts some stats? For a late 4th rounder he sure has blossomed- I might be inclined to wait for one of ours before we give up too much. Look how overrated Tyson Barrie has turned out coming from the avs so Graves makes me nervous 

I mostly agree with everything you said here. I wasn’t aware Girard had already signed long term. It’s not a terrible contract all things considered, just bigger/longer than I anticipated. I also agree with you on Graves ( is he the real deal? Wouldn’t want to give up too much..) but for the right price, I’d consider taking a chance. Either way, mostly I was just making the case for exploring trade options before going the offer sheet rout.

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#39 | Anthony Mantha
Right Wing | Detroit Red Wings
Stick Hand     Left
Date of Birth     9/16/1994
Height, Weight     6'5", 234 lbs
From     Longueuil, PQ
Drafted     2013 - Rd 1
Anthony Mantha expects 'complicated' negotiations with Red Wings this summer

The Red Wings have a long list of free agents to deal with this summer, but there’s one who stands out. Anthony Mantha has shown the talent to be a big-time goal scorer in the NHL — when he isn’t injured, which has been a nuisance in Mantha’s career. Mantha has missed 28 games this season (knee, then a punctured lung), yet he still has 15 goals in 40 games, and nobody is doubting he’ll run down Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both with 18) for the team lead before the end of the season. Mantha is a restricted free agent this summer, so his leverage is limited. He’s in line for a substantial raise from the two-year, $6.6 million ($3.3 million salary cap hit) deal on which he’s currently playing.
https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/anthony-mantha-expects-complicated-negotiations-with-red-wings-this-summer-617445.html
Local talent is always something to consider regarding the Habs. And though this does not fill the need for a left defenseman, it may lead to a trade of another forward that could be part of a deal for one.


Is an offer sheet possible and even worth it for the Habs in this case?

 

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As much as I would love to see Sergachev back in Montreal, I have a feeling an offer sheet for him would fail. Of course it's tempting to look at TB's cap space available next season and lick our lips, but... I have a feeling TB would match our offer and then just find another way to make the cap work. They could trade a forward to make it work. Something like that. Unless we want to seriously overpay. Which I don't think we do.

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I don't see MB ( if he's still GM) going this route again. He was ridiculed for his pathetic offer to Aho and i don't see Bargainbin going all in to make a serious offer on anybody.

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12 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

I don't see MB ( if he's still GM) going this route again. He was ridiculed for his pathetic offer to Aho and i don't see Bargainbin going all in to make a serious offer on anybody.

This

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16 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

I don't see MB ( if he's still GM) going this route again. He was ridiculed for his pathetic offer to Aho and i don't see Bargainbin going all in to make a serious offer on anybody.

The people who ridiculed him were stupid

If he thinks there might be a chance with someone, I think he will try again

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2 hours ago, Habs_Hockey_Nutz said:

#39 | Anthony Mantha
Right Wing | Detroit Red Wings
Stick Hand     Left
Date of Birth     9/16/1994
Height, Weight     6'5", 234 lbs
From     Longueuil, PQ
Drafted     2013 - Rd 1
Anthony Mantha expects 'complicated' negotiations with Red Wings this summer

The Red Wings have a long list of free agents to deal with this summer, but there’s one who stands out. Anthony Mantha has shown the talent to be a big-time goal scorer in the NHL — when he isn’t injured, which has been a nuisance in Mantha’s career. Mantha has missed 28 games this season (knee, then a punctured lung), yet he still has 15 goals in 40 games, and nobody is doubting he’ll run down Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi (both with 18) for the team lead before the end of the season. Mantha is a restricted free agent this summer, so his leverage is limited. He’s in line for a substantial raise from the two-year, $6.6 million ($3.3 million salary cap hit) deal on which he’s currently playing.
https://www.prosportsdaily.com/articles/anthony-mantha-expects-complicated-negotiations-with-red-wings-this-summer-617445.html
Local talent is always something to consider regarding the Habs. And though this does not fill the need for a left defenseman, it may lead to a trade of another forward that could be part of a deal for one.


Is an offer sheet possible and even worth it for the Habs in this case?

 

Mantha is intriguing.  One of the montreal insiders (Lebrun?) recently mentioned he's positive MB has a "Big plan" in place for this summer, so that feels to me more like a trade in the works (Ie a GM who said "well do this in the summer, not the TDL) rather than an offer sheet, but we shall see.

 

1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

As much as I would love to see Sergachev back in Montreal, I have a feeling an offer sheet for him would fail. Of course it's tempting to look at TB's cap space available next season and lick our lips, but... I have a feeling TB would match our offer and then just find another way to make the cap work. They could trade a forward to make it work. Something like that. Unless we want to seriously overpay. Which I don't think we do.

Yeah I dont see us making the offer for sergachev (or him accepting it)  TBH.  After seeing what he did with Aho last year, I dont think MB will make any offers honestly.  I mean it was a pretty feeble attempt so I doubt he'd do what is necessary (overpayment in contract $ and losing assets) to get any player really.  And therein lies MB's problem: He wont take risks.  

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I know this is a thread about offersheets but one name that I could see MB being very interested in (as an UFA) is Torey Krug. Obviously Boston will do everything they can to resign him but assuming they cant, we might have a shot at him.   First of all, he is apparently good friends with Jeff Petry. Secondly, Krug has always had very good things to say about Julien, so i get the sense they would be happy to work together again.

He's a bit older than id like but if we're honestly going to try to win with Weber/Price/Petry then now is the time.

Krug - Petry
Mete - Weber
two of the thousand 3rd pairing guys we have. 

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33 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I know this is a thread about offersheets but one name that I could see MB being very interested in (as an UFA) is Torey Krug. Obviously Boston will do everything they can to resign him but assuming they cant, we might have a shot at him.   First of all, he is apparently good friends with Jeff Petry. Secondly, Krug has always had very good things to say about Julien, so i get the sense they would be happy to work together again.

He's a bit older than id like but if we're honestly going to try to win with Weber/Price/Petry then now is the time.

Krug - Petry
Mete - Weber
two of the thousand 3rd pairing guys we have. 

Don't forget Romanov too

Krug is definitely someone I would love to sign but Boston should have the cap space to re-sign. 

At this point it seems like we'll have an opportunity to offer him something. I'd pay a lot for Krug and he may listen if had a good relationship with CJ

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1 minute ago, habsisme said:

Don't forget Romanov too

Krug is definitely someone I would love to sign but Boston should have the cap space to re-sign. 

At this point it seems like we'll have an opportunity to offer him something. I'd pay a lot for Krug and he may listen if had a good relationship with CJ

I do think there's a good chance Romanov comes over but i also think if he does, he probably plays 3r pairing minutes to start.  I could see him leapfrogging Mete onto the 2nd pair - and I also could see MB using Mete as part of a trade if we went that route instead.  Mete + Domi  or Mete + Drouin could probably bring you back a very very good young LD. 

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2 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I do think there's a good chance Romanov comes over but i also think if he does, he probably plays 3r pairing minutes to start.  I could see him leapfrogging Mete onto the 2nd pair - and I also could see MB using Mete as part of a trade if we went that route instead.  Mete + Domi  or Mete + Drouin could probably bring you back a very very good young LD. 

you might be right but I think Romanov is already better than Mete. We do need to sign or trade for an LD

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52 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I know this is a thread about offersheets but one name that I could see MB being very interested in (as an UFA) is Torey Krug. Obviously Boston will do everything they can to resign him but assuming they cant, we might have a shot at him.   First of all, he is apparently good friends with Jeff Petry. Secondly, Krug has always had very good things to say about Julien, so i get the sense they would be happy to work together again.

He's a bit older than id like but if we're honestly going to try to win with Weber/Price/Petry then now is the time.

Krug - Petry
Mete - Weber
two of the thousand 3rd pairing guys we have. 

 

18 minutes ago, habsisme said:

Don't forget Romanov too

Krug is definitely someone I would love to sign but Boston should have the cap space to re-sign. 

At this point it seems like we'll have an opportunity to offer him something. I'd pay a lot for Krug and he may listen if had a good relationship with CJ

I also would like to see us make a move on Krug. But I also do think he most likely re-signs with Boston. Boston has a knack for keeping their players for less than the market price would suggest, and Boston is very good. They could make a legitimate run for the cup this year, and possibly for years to come. But Krug would definitely be a great addition to our blue line. What about Gryzlick (I probably misspelled that)? His numbers look... okay, what do you think his upside could be? I doubt he’s got the offence we’re looking for long term, but does he have enough to out produce Chairot? Chairot’s been okay, but I think he’d be better off on the second pairing.

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