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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Think it really depends on the player.  A guy like Hall is going to be set up for life financially no matter where he signs and he's already proven himself on an individual level. So my guess is that he's narrowed things down to teams he think he can win with. Colorado was rumored to be interested in him but they just acquired Saad. Boston is also rumored to have made an offer but they're going full Marian Hossa on him and trying to get him for one year only. That said, teams that have a shot at becoming a winner with Hall AND have at least 7M in cap space right now (i.e. won't need to make a significant trade to clear space for him) would be IMO

- NYR

- Nas

- Bos

- Col

- Clb

- Dal

- NYI

- Phi

-Van

That said, the Isles have to re-sign Barzal, Pulock, etc. so they really don't have much cap room. Ditto for Dallas with Gurianov, Hintz, Faksa. Philly and the Rangers don't really need a top 6 LW and I'd say the same about Colorado with their wealth of forwards right now. So that leaves me with Boston, Columbus, Nashville, and Vancouver. Not sure I really see Vancouver as a serious bidder for Hall though.

None of this is to say that another suitor can't come in with a bid, but our biggest competition in terms of need, cap space, and ability to be competitive in the playoffs would be Boston (who are rumored to be offering a 1-year deal), Columbus, and Nashville. Not sure Clb or Nas is any further ahead than us when it comes to being competitive. If we want to throw politics and health into the mix, you also need to wonder if playing in Canada during the COVID fiasco could also be appealing to a Canadian who wants to avoid the American health system and COVID risk. Historically, we've never done well in these types of races and we supposedly came 2nd in the Duchene race despite the fact we made more sense on paper (taxes and weather aside). So won't get my hopes up too high for Hall, but I also don't think it's out of the question. MB didn't shoot down the idea, which he almost always does, and Hall is rumored to not have ruled us out either, so I guess you never know.

Good analysis - I would say if Vegas strikes out in Pietrangelo then I think the Bruins get Alex. Hall doesn’t strike me as a Bruins fit and the Bruins are likely to resign LW Debrusk. In Dallas Tyler Seguin is likely to be out for a 4 month plus surgery rehab so with that LTIR perhaps Hall fits there and they deal with their top heavy forwards when Seguin returns the next year. Columbus would be my other favorite horse as it is very likely Dubinsky at 5.85m never plays another game so more LTIR relief there on top of their cap. I agree with you that Vancouver is unlikely and when I look at Nashville they are already LW heavy 

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Apparently CLb GM Jarmo Kekalainen did an interview where he admitted to talking to both Pietrangelo and Hall but said neither worked out for them. So it would seem they're out of the race.

Dave Pagnotta on TSN690 suggested both Bos and Col had discussed a 1-2 year deal and that the Habs and Preds had both discussed a long-term deal. Said Hall was interested in Montreal but wasn't sure Habs would pay the price he was asking for on a long-term deal.

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39 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Apparently CLb GM Jarmo Kekalainen did an interview where he admitted to talking to both Pietrangelo and Hall but said neither worked out for them. So it would seem they're out of the race.

Dave Pagnotta on TSN690 suggested both Bos and Col had discussed a 1-2 year deal and that the Habs and Preds had both discussed a long-term deal. Said Hall was interested in Montreal but wasn't sure Habs would pay the price he was asking for on a long-term deal.

I hope MB pays the price for Hall.  We need at least 1 elite forward and this market is starving for some elite offensive talent. 

If a 28yo Hart winner wants to play in MTL for the long term, make it so...these opportunities don't come around often.  

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3 minutes ago, Windoe said:

I hope MB pays the price for Hall.  We need at least 1 elite forward and this market is starving for some elite offensive talent. 

If a 28yo Hart winner wants to play in MTL for the long term, make it so...these opportunities don't come around often.  

Agreed, I dont think it will happen as we never get that lucky lol. But if he is interested I say go for it. 8 Mil x 7 years front loaded with performance bonuses every year and a Full NMC. Get him keep him and move forward.

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On 10/9/2020 at 9:11 AM, BigTed3 said:

Have to wonder if MB offersheeting Aho last year made TB more concerned some GM could do it to them. If so, then maybe MB's offeersheet forced Johnson away for no return. One bonus at least!

Another potential bonus...looks like MB offersheeting Aho last year has also made CBJ a bit more offersheet defensive as well, clearing space to defend against a potential offersheet on Dubois.

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8 hours ago, Windoe said:

I hope MB pays the price for Hall.  We need at least 1 elite forward and this market is starving for some elite offensive talent. 

If a 28yo Hart winner wants to play in MTL for the long term, make it so...these opportunities don't come around often.  

8 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Agreed, I dont think it will happen as we never get that lucky lol. But if he is interested I say go for it. 8 Mil x 7 years front loaded with performance bonuses every year and a Full NMC. Get him keep him and move forward.

A big trade has to happen before that cap room is there. It would require moving Tatar for likely draft choices. That might be ok as Tatar probably doesn’t fit in a contract extension unless he has a very strong season. Hall is definitely an upgrade over Tatar for the long term. Dealing Gallagher or Danault makes no sense. Dealing Drouin - we would be trading him at a very diminished value which is MB’s normal mode of trade preparation. Dealing other small pieces won’t get us there. 

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5 minutes ago, Windoe said:

Another potential bonus...looks like MB offersheeting Aho last year has also made CBJ a bit more offersheet defensive as well, clearing space to defend against a potential offersheet on Dubois.

Nonsense - Read up on Brandon Dubinsky and likely LTIR relief my earlier comments on Hall  - CBJ has tons Of cap room with Dubinsky likely to never play another game.

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

Nonsense - Read up on Brandon Dubinsky and likely LTIR relief my earlier comments on Hall  - CBJ has tons Of cap room with Dubinsky likely to never play another game.

Yeah.  Columbus has lots of room, made more room  and I think they were targeting both Hall & Pieterangelo.  Definitely would have put them into the next level.  Plus like you said, claremont, they can bury Dubinsky for even more room.  I think they will be getting some of the secondary free agents. Players that we may be interested in, like a Hoffman or a Dadonov, or......

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11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Apparently CLb GM Jarmo Kekalainen did an interview where he admitted to talking to both Pietrangelo and Hall but said neither worked out for them. So it would seem they're out of the race.

Dave Pagnotta on TSN690 suggested both Bos and Col had discussed a 1-2 year deal and that the Habs and Preds had both discussed a long-term deal. Said Hall was interested in Montreal but wasn't sure Habs would pay the price he was asking for on a long-term deal.

FWIW, if Hall is thinking about things, he's not thinking about money all that much. That would be relatively easy to know who's offering you the most. He's thinking about where he can win, where he wants to live, and how long a deal he wants to sign. So imagine he has two basic options in terms of contract length:

1. 1-2 years at 7-9M per season.

2. 5-7 years at 7-9M per season.

The advantage to option 1 is it likely permits you to go to a team with a better shot at winning now, like Colorado or Boston, who may not be offering a longer-term deal. It also permits you to jump ship in a year or two if it's not working out. Maybe it also permits you to sign another 6-7 year deal to increase your career earnings, whereas if you sign for 7 now, that's probably your last big contract.

The advantage to option 2 is job security. If he gets injured or declines, he's guaranteed himself 40-60M in future earnings, which is nothing to sneeze at. No worries about what you need to play for and needing to stay healthy. Also gives you some stability in terms of where you're living.

My personal guess is that winning is the most important factor to Hall right now and that he's going to go the Marian Hossa route. I think he'll bet on himself being good enough in a year or two to earn another big contract. So if I had to guess, regardless of what makes the most sense in terms of team fit and so on, I think he's got to look at the West as being an easier conference to come out of right now and Colorado as being one of two teams (Vegas being the other) who are clearly better positioned than anyone else to win that conference. So my guess is he signs with Colorado 1-2 years at something around 8.25M AAV.

 

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6 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, if Hall is thinking about things, he's not thinking about money all that much. That would be relatively easy to know who's offering you the most. He's thinking about where he can win, where he wants to live, and how long a deal he wants to sign. So imagine he has two basic options in terms of contract length:

1. 1-2 years at 7-9M per season.

2. 5-7 years at 7-9M per season.

The advantage to option 1 is it likely permits you to go to a team with a better shot at winning now, like Colorado or Boston, who may not be offering a longer-term deal. It also permits you to jump ship in a year or two if it's not working out. Maybe it also permits you to sign another 6-7 year deal to increase your career earnings, whereas if you sign for 7 now, that's probably your last big contract.

The advantage to option 2 is job security. If he gets injured or declines, he's guaranteed himself 40-60M in future earnings, which is nothing to sneeze at. No worries about what you need to play for and needing to stay healthy. Also gives you some stability in terms of where you're living.

My personal guess is that winning is the most important factor to Hall right now and that he's going to go the Marian Hossa route. I think he'll bet on himself being good enough in a year or two to earn another big contract. So if I had to guess, regardless of what makes the most sense in terms of team fit and so on, I think he's got to look at the West as being an easier conference to come out of right now and Colorado as being one of two teams (Vegas being the other) who are clearly better positioned than anyone else to win that conference. So my guess is he signs with Colorado 1-2 years at something around 8.25M AAV.

 

The Avs are basically in the same boat as the Habs in terms of cap space to fit Hall. According to Capfriendly the Avs have 9.96 Mil and only 11 Forwards and 5 defensemen signed. They still have to resign Kamanev, Jost and Graves. Kamanev likely comes in at about 3-4 so let's say 3. Jost at 1.5-2.5 So let's say 1.5 but Graves is going to cost between 4.5-6 Morse likely 5 like Girard. So 9.96-3-1.5-5=0.46 Mil and that still only gives them a 21 man roster. So they would have to move out more money than we would to fit Hall.

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14 hours ago, Windoe said:

I hope MB pays the price for Hall.  We need at least 1 elite forward and this market is starving for some elite offensive talent. 

If a 28yo Hart winner wants to play in MTL for the long term, make it so...these opportunities don't come around often.  

Yes.

14 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Agreed, I don't think it will happen as we never get that lucky lol. But if he is interested I say go for it. 8 Mil x 7 years front loaded with performance bonuses every year and a Full NMC. Get him keep him and move forward.

If he'd sign for that, Great!

5 hours ago, claremont said:

A big trade has to happen before that cap room is there. It would require moving Tatar for likely draft choices. That might be ok as Tatar probably doesn’t fit in a contract extension unless he has a very strong season. Hall is definitely an upgrade over Tatar for the long term. Dealing Gallagher or Danault makes no sense. Dealing Drouin - we would be trading him at a very diminished value which is MB’s normal mode of trade preparation. Dealing other small pieces won’t get us there. 

A lot of teams are biting the bullet on salaries & projected returns for players. Definitely a buyers market. I know that the general consensus here is pro Drouin, but I am not on board. If we could get TH for what campabee82 suggests, I would flip Drouin for picks in a heart beat. not only would we improve by deleting Drouin, but we would dramatically improve with Taylor Hall in the lineup. I know we would be selling low on Drouin, but really, when do you have a chance at a Taylor Hall?  And how many chances are you going to give Drouin? So, a lot of teams are giving players away, and the longer we wait, the less chance we can do the same. So in essence, it would be TH for JD. Do you do it?

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7 hours ago, claremont said:

Nonsense - Read up on Brandon Dubinsky and likely LTIR relief my earlier comments on Hall  - CBJ has tons Of cap room with Dubinsky likely to never play another game.

From nhl.com

season.

"Even though it may look like we have a lot of cap space, we don't because we have to make sure that we're not vulnerable in any way for offer sheets, or something like that, so we have to keep that cap space and flexibility moving forward here so that nobody gets any silly ideas," Kekkalainen said

 

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1 hour ago, bell75 said:

From nhl.com

season.

"Even though it may look like we have a lot of cap space, we don't because we have to make sure that we're not vulnerable in any way for offer sheets, or something like that, so we have to keep that cap space and flexibility moving forward here so that nobody gets any silly ideas," Kekkalainen said

 

Yeah I read somewhere that Kekkalianen said they were out on Hall as well due to Cap constraints. Whether or not that means internal cap or protection from an OS I have no way of knowing. I would think it is more of an internal cap than OS situation.

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12 minutes ago, claremont said:

1 year at $8m - very surprised bet on Eichel or himself 

It must be the 1 year. He probably didn't like the market this year and what was being offered. I wonder if he's biding his time until next year thinking teams will be better suited to offer him term and money. As it's been stated several times, many teams are either up against the cap or over now. Tough year if you are hoping for a big pay out.

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21 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Yeah no kidding! all about the cash!

 

Seems that way. We know Boston and Colorado both also offered him short-term deals but for less money. So if it was about winning, he wouldn't be in Buffalo. Supposedly, he was excited to reunite with Krueger but if that was it, likely would have been a longer-term deal. This signing suggests he wanted to take the most money for next year then hope the market resets a bit and he can sign a longer-term deal next year.

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With Hall off the market, next question is where Hoffman and Toffoli go. Neither signing makes a lot of sense for us. I don't think those players are better than Anderson, Gallagher, Drouin, or Tatar, so they'd be signing to be 3rd line/fringe 2nd line players. With the number of guys on expiring contracts, it also doesn't make a lot of sense to me for me to sign one of those guys to term (more than one season) and then not be able to pay Gallagher or Tatar or Danault. So the only way signing one of these guys makes sense to us is if it's a one-year deal worth 4M or less. Otherwise, we'll end up taking one step forward and two back.

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3 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

With Hall off the market, next question is where Hoffman and Toffoli go. Neither signing makes a lot of sense for us. I don't think those players are better than Anderson, Gallagher, Drouin, or Tatar, so they'd be signing to be 3rd line/fringe 2nd line players. With the number of guys on expiring contracts, it also doesn't make a lot of sense to me for me to sign one of those guys to term (more than one season) and then not be able to pay Gallagher or Tatar or Danault. So the only way signing one of these guys makes sense to us is if it's a one-year deal worth 4M or less. Otherwise, we'll end up taking one step forward and two back.

yeah, I think we're done. The interesting part now is do we even try to lock up any expiring deals or do we let the season play out (so we can make trades if we have another 8 game losing streak)

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1 minute ago, habsisme said:

yeah, I think we're done. The interesting part now is do we even try to lock up any expiring deals or do we let the season play out (so we can make trades if we have another 8 game losing streak)

I know people will disagree with me on this, but I think the guy we should be signing next is Danault, assuming we can do something reasonable (6M or under a year, no NTC's...). I think he's a player we haven't found a replacement for yet, even though Evans or Poehling eventually get there.

Tatar is likely gone after this year and Gallagher is a guy who I'm worried about signing to a long-term deal given his injury history and style of play. Might be better to see how that plays out over the season.

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34 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I know people will disagree with me on this, but I think the guy we should be signing next is Danault, assuming we can do something reasonable (6M or under a year, no NTC's...). I think he's a player we haven't found a replacement for yet, even though Evans or Poehling eventually get there.

Tatar is likely gone after this year and Gallagher is a guy who I'm worried about signing to a long-term deal given his injury history and style of play. Might be better to see how that plays out over the season.

I’d agree with you on that. If we look at the prospect pool, we don’t have much 3rd line centre depth developing or even depth shudder if Suzuki or KK get hurt Or slump, so Danault is invaluable experience that can rotate to 2nd line in juggling. I’m not an Evans fan, and I personally think Poehling might be better suited to LW. The prospect pool at centre is Cam Hillis (2019) and Jan Mysak (2020) who are 2-3 years away unless I missed someone. 
Next year’s free agent is likely a scoring LW to replace or improve over Tatar. Again I look at the prospect pool and we are empty on the LW side until Tuch or Mysak (also LW conversion) mature. Byron and Lehkonen are just penalty killers and general filler for me. I still wonder if MB looks for a cheap LW for this year with Kovalchuk in his back pocket. 
As to a long term deal for Gallagher- mgmt faces a choice between he and Armia as Caufield is on the next year horizon at RW. One has to love Gallagher’s heart and leadership but two 5 ft 9 RW’s?
 

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23 minutes ago, claremont said:

I’d agree with you on that. If we look at the prospect pool, we don’t have much 3rd line centre depth developing or even depth shudder if Suzuki or KK get hurt Or slump, so Danault is invaluable experience that can rotate to 2nd line in juggling. I’m not an Evans fan, and I personally think Poehling might be better suited to LW. The prospect pool at centre is Cam Hillis (2019) and Jan Mysak (2020) who are 2-3 years away unless I missed someone. 
Next year’s free agent is likely a scoring LW to replace or improve over Tatar. Again I look at the prospect pool and we are empty on the LW side until Tuch or Mysak (also LW conversion) mature. Byron and Lehkonen are just penalty killers and general filler for me. I still wonder if MB looks for a cheap LW for this year with Kovalchuk in his back pocket. 
As to a long term deal for Gallagher- mgmt faces a choice between he and Armia as Caufield is on the next year horizon at RW. One has to love Gallagher’s heart and leadership but two 5 ft 9 RW’s?
 

Not only Caufield, but (and I know I've been repeating this over and over) Ylonen as well. Depending on COVID, he should get his first taste of the AHL this year and he could easily be a top 9 player here within a year or two. So with Anderson locked up, I'm not sure there's a need for Gallagher in 3-4 years. On the other hand, he's been such a warrior for the Habs and grossly underpaid, so you can't really be asking him to take a hometown discount. He himself has clearly said he wants to win and wants to see what MB does with the roster before re-signing. So I'm wondering what the fit is going forward. The Habs have good prospect depth at LHD and RW. They need more help at RHD and LW. So as I said, while this opinion may be unpopular with fans and with MB himself, I wonder if Tatar, Gallagher, and Weber could be good trade bait to bring back some younger guys and to create the cap space we need going forward as well. We can't afford to keep everyone under the cap, so difficult decisions will need to be made.

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