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2020-21 State Of The Habs

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1 hour ago, electron58 said:

Canadiens submit qualifying offers to five players

The offers were made to forwards Max Domi and Charles Hudon, as well as defensemen Noah Juulsen, Victor Mete and Xavier Ouellet

by Montreal Canadiens @CanadiensMTL / News release

 October 3, 2020
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Then that's on Hudon for not accepting the offer.     Still does not change that at best he is a fringe NHL player, and more than likely a career AHLer.    He was a 5th round pick, so it is what it is.   People trying to imply he was a top 9 NHL forward are just seeing him through rose tinted glasses.

Or to put it less delicately ... you can slap lipstick on a pig, doesn't change that it's a pig.

Edited by HabsAlways
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1 hour ago, arpem-can said:

I don't think there's a chance in hell Bergevin lets Danault go to free agency .. Danault will sign a reasonable contract to stay in Quebec and solidify his future . I think he'll be a bit like Gallagher who will sit on it ( for 1 day ) and contemplate what it'll be like to turn his life completely upside down by going to another team and multiple unknowns . Same thing happened for Petry .If push comes to shove Bergevin at the very least will make a trade and not lose a valuable  asset but I don't think that will happen . @ $5 mill + a year and term our modern day version of Guy Carbonneau won't care about his " role " when he's financially secure for the rest of his life .

I agree that Danault wont go UFA. MB would be a fool to lose that asset for nothing.  

However, I do think there's a decent chance he gets traded.   There have been hints that they think guys like Poehling, Vejdemo and Evans can get those bottom two slots filled effectively.  

Its really going to come down to Suzuki/JK.  If they perform right out of the gate, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Danault traded (or signed and traded).   

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12 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I agree that Danault wont go UFA. MB would be a fool to lose that asset for nothing.  

However, I do think there's a decent chance he gets traded.   There have been hints that they think guys like Poehling, Vejdemo and Evans can get those bottom two slots filled effectively.  

Its really going to come down to Suzuki/JK.  If they perform right out of the gate, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Danault traded (or signed and traded).   

JK hasn't even shown he can stay healthy for a full season yet. I hope he can but some players you never know. Two way centers like Toews Bergeron O'Reilly are actually very valuable to have on your team. I would like to see him stay long term. At a reasonable figure and I believe he will.

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1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

JK hasn't even shown he can stay healthy for a full season yet. I hope he can but some players you never know. Two way centers like Toews Bergeron O'Reilly are actually very valuable to have on your team. I would like to see him stay long term. At a reasonable figure and I believe he will.

Assuming he wants something reasonable then yes, I think he will. But if he really pushes the salary demands I htink MB will think long and hard whether JK/Suzuki/Poehling/Evans/Vejedmo/Hillis will be able to handle it on their own.

I think a lot of it comes down to Danault. Does he take $5m year?  Does he accept he may be playing down the lineup ?  Tough to say.  With our depth I think we roll 3-4 lines anyway but I dont think this is a clear-cut issue at this point without knowing what PD wants/expects. If he wants $7m a year or assurances he's one of our top 2 centres, I think you have to think long and hard about his long term worth to this squad. 

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21 minutes ago, maas_art said:

But if he really pushes the salary demands I htink MB will think long and hard whether JK/Suzuki/Poehling/Evans/Vejedmo/Hillis will be able to handle it on their own.

   I don't think Danault has it in his DNA to push the envelop and will sign for reasonable money but in the event of an eventual  roster shake-up Hillis is one of my dark horses down the road ...smooth-skating former captain of the Storm was an outstanding junior with all the tools , plays both ends and has great hockey IQ..

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1 hour ago, arpem-can said:

   I don't think Danault has it in his DNA to push the envelop and will sign for reasonable money but in the event of an eventual  roster shake-up Hillis is one of my dark horses down the road ...smooth-skating former captain of the Storm was an outstanding junior with all the tools , plays both ends and has great hockey IQ..

One would hope we can salvage Poehling who has more upside before we're resorting to Hillis.

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

One would hope we can salvage Poehling who has more upside before we're resorting to Hillis.

We forget players develop at different times in their careers, i think he will be fine and in the next couple of years will be our third line center. I think he is faster then Danault and plays a more physical game and will become a really good two way center.  I like Danault but he thinks he is a number one center and he is not. He was lucky enough to have played with our top two wingers the last two season. 

Keep in mind Danault had over a 160 games in the AHL before making the step to the NHL. Poehling has played 36. Danault did nothing in the NHL until the start of the 2016/17 season, he was 23 years old and turned 24 that season.  

Edited by caperns61
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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

I agree that Danault wont go UFA. MB would be a fool to lose that asset for nothing.  
However, I do think there's a decent chance he gets traded.   There have been hints that they think guys like Poehling, Vejdemo and Evans can get those bottom two slots filled effectively.  
Its really going to come down to Suzuki/JK.  If they perform right out of the gate, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see Danault traded (or signed and traded).   

2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

One would hope we can salvage Poehling who has more upside before we're resorting to Hillis.

Where do you hear of positive thoughts on Poehling? I keep hearing he has a USA college prima Dona complex and that he simply needs to work harder to improve his skill level and compete. I hope that he isn’t a draft bust. 

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

One would hope we can salvage Poehling who has more upside before we're resorting to Hillis.

  Certainly Poehling is way ahead of him in the depth / experience  chart   ..I did say Hillis was a " dark horse " down the road for me ..He rarely  gets mentioned in prospect conversations but maas _art threw his name into the mix so it caught my attention... he hasn't played an AHL game either so there's plenty of room for development in the pros ...I've seen Hillis play as a junior and he was skilled  and anticipated well  ...for all we know Poehling makes the club this season ..I hope so 

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3 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

One would hope we can salvage Poehling who has more upside before we're resorting to Hillis.

"Salvage" might be a bit of a stretch here. He's 21 years old, hardly close to "bust" age.  He was always going to be a project, so its possible Hillis or someone else develops faster.  Evans and Vejdemo are both a few years older than either of them so there's a decent chance they progress first.

There's also a chance Poehling is converted to the wing - Bouchard seemed to like him there at times. 

50 minutes ago, claremont said:

Where do you hear of positive thoughts on Poehling? I keep hearing he has a USA college prima Dona complex and that he simply needs to work harder to improve his skill level and compete. I hope that he isn’t a draft bust. 

21 years old.   Lets not use the "bust" word yet.    

As for positive words - ive heard Bouchard and Bergevin reference him in good ways within the last year.  MB recently said that Danault wasnt "guaranteed anything" with Poehling and Evans vying for the 3rd line (so not only 1-2 but even 3 -4 arent a guarantee).

The only negative I have heard about him is that he showed up to the play in camp out of shape, but a number of NHL players (Vets even) did that around the league too. I assume, not getting even a single game, he learned his lesson.   Ive never heard of him referenced as a Prima Donna. 

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The Athletic put out an article on the changes team's made this off-season and on paper, whether that should account for more or less team wins. It's based on the formula of how a player adds wins above a replacement player and it does not take into account the addition of rookies like Romanov nor the progression or slowing down of existing players on the roster. It is only looking at players added vs subtracted who have established NHL records to be able to assess how they impact team wins based on things like expected goals for and against while in the ice. In the Habs case, they're down a player like Domi but have added the likes of Toffoli, Anderson, Edmundson, and Allen. Allen's impact on paper may be minimized by the fact that Carey plays so much and the back-up doesn't impact a lot of games in Montreal, but in practice, it may help more if Allen gets into more games and allows Carey to perform better in the ones he plays.

That said, on paper, the numbers don't tell as good a story as the commentary about Bergevin's off-season. The advanced stats predict the Habs have added less than one win to their totals from last year. Again, this doesn't take into account Suzuki or Kotkaniemi or Romanov simply blowing us out of the water with added value, but the additions/subtractions basically haven't done a lot as per The Athletic. In large part, this is being driven down by Edmundson's negative impact. Conversely, Detroit and NJ have added 5-6 wins each and even a team like Colorado has managed to add wins despite cutting salary. Here's a visual of this (courtesy Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic):

 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

The Athletic put out an article on the changes team's made this off-season and on paper, whether that should account for more or less team wins. It's based on the formula of how a player adds wins above a replacement player and it does not take into account the addition of rookies like Romanov nor the progression or slowing down of existing players on the roster. It is only looking at players added vs subtracted who have established NHL records to be able to assess how they impact team wins based on things like expected goals for and against while in the ice. In the Habs case, they're down a player like Domi but have added the likes of Toffoli, Anderson, Edmundson, and Allen. Allen's impact on paper may be minimized by the fact that Carey plays so much and the back-up doesn't impact a lot of games in Montreal, but in practice, it may help more if Allen gets into more games and allows Carey to perform better in the ones he plays.

That said, on paper, the numbers don't tell as good a story as the commentary about Bergevin's off-season. The advanced stats predict the Habs have added less than one win to their totals from last year. Again, this doesn't take into account Suzuki or Kotkaniemi or Romanov simply blowing us out of the water with added value, but the additions/subtractions basically haven't done a lot as per The Athletic. In large part, this is being driven down by Edmundson's negative impact. Conversely, Detroit and NJ have added 5-6 wins each and even a team like Colorado has managed to add wins despite cutting salary. Here's a visual of this (courtesy Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic):

 

Its an interesting theory and a good read, although I think there's (obviously) flaws with it.

For us the biggest one is that while Toffoli is clearly a big replacement over, say Hudon, Anderson probably shows negative value vs. Domi - but in practice that shouldnt be the case. Edmundson vs. Kulak (or even Mete)  looks like it will hurt us but we will have to wait & see how guys are used and deployed. 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out in practice.  I think the changes will be a considerable boon although there's certainly a lot riding on guys like Suzuki and JK continuing where they left off. 

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13 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Its an interesting theory and a good read, although I think there's (obviously) flaws with it.

For us the biggest one is that while Toffoli is clearly a big replacement over, say Hudon, Anderson probably shows negative value vs. Domi - but in practice that shouldnt be the case. Edmundson vs. Kulak (or even Mete)  looks like it will hurt us but we will have to wait & see how guys are used and deployed. 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out in practice.  I think the changes will be a considerable boon although there's certainly a lot riding on guys like Suzuki and JK continuing where they left off. 

The one main flaw I see with this is the starting point. A team like Tampa who was one of the highest scoring teams last year who don't have cap room to add players won't have much of an increase next year (even if they could add how many more goals would they realistically be able to add per game?). Where as a team like Detroit who couldn't score to save their lives last year and added a significant number of players will obviously score more this year.

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Interesting sound-byte from the Vegas owner Foley:

“I wish we’d done something different with Tatar,” Foley said. “Turk (former Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant) really didn’t want him to play, that was the issue with Tatar. He was a valuable player when we got him. He moved up and down the line and was consistent on any line. He’s a real good player, he’s a real good guy. He’d been hurt the year before, but by the time he left (Vegas) he was in good shape.

“I regret what we did with Tatar and then we gave up Suzuki as well.”

Im sure they are happy with the deal (Patches has been good for them) but in a few years time I think there will be 'trader's remorse'

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Interesting sound-byte from the Vegas owner Foley:

“I wish we’d done something different with Tatar,” Foley said. “Turk (former Golden Knights coach Gerard Gallant) really didn’t want him to play, that was the issue with Tatar. He was a valuable player when we got him. He moved up and down the line and was consistent on any line. He’s a real good player, he’s a real good guy. He’d been hurt the year before, but by the time he left (Vegas) he was in good shape.

“I regret what we did with Tatar and then we gave up Suzuki as well.”

Im sure they are happy with the deal (Patches has been good for them) but in a few years time I think there will be 'trader's remorse'

By the sound of that there already is! single best move MB ever made.

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1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

By the sound of that there already is! single best move MB ever made.

:6280:

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

Its an interesting theory and a good read, although I think there's (obviously) flaws with it.

For us the biggest one is that while Toffoli is clearly a big replacement over, say Hudon, Anderson probably shows negative value vs. Domi - but in practice that shouldnt be the case. Edmundson vs. Kulak (or even Mete)  looks like it will hurt us but we will have to wait & see how guys are used and deployed. 

It will be interesting to see how it plays out in practice.  I think the changes will be a considerable boon although there's certainly a lot riding on guys like Suzuki and JK continuing where they left off. 

I would expect that if we don't play in an All Cdn division, 1) we will not lose to teams like New Jersey, Detroit or Ottawa with our compete level much higher and fewer1 goal loss games 2) Buffalo should be slightly better, Toronto IMO worse, Tampa Bay and Boston about the same

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8 minutes ago, claremont said:

I would expect that if we don't play in an All Cdn division, 1) we will not lose to teams like New Jersey, Detroit or Ottawa with our compete level much higher and fewer1 goal loss games 2) Buffalo should be slightly better, Toronto IMO worse, Tampa Bay and Boston about the same

Tampa won't be as good through attrition ....they'll probably lose 2 good players off a Stanley Cup winning roster ....Boston will struggle without Krug and Chara and with Marchand and Pasternak on the mend ...Bergeron is still effective but at 35 I'm thinking his last kick at the can was last year ...Toronto has holes to fill they can't afford ...it will probably be a shortened season of 50 or 60 games and a team needs to be firing on all cylinders out of the gate ...Buffalo I agree will be somewhat better ...Secretly I was hoping for a Killorn for our 3rd or 4th line but the money dried 

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https://thehockeywriters.com/montreal-canadiens-chiarot-edmundson-expansion/?fbclid=IwAR2O4i8lQodIfcP3iOL7hCmJR3nXU8_SsubZUJStMj0KiS8L06FPDbaECRA

Article by the hockey writers on which defensemen to protect in the Kraken ED next year. Speculation that Kulak could be traded for cap room / roster space although I think for this coming season, Kulak provides additional depth for us. Writers think Edmundson is a preferred depth piece to be protected over Chiarot. Winnipeg is in dire need of some better LHD and have LTIR injury cap relief as Bryan Little is unlikely to come back this season. There is no rush to make a deal, but I could see something happening here. I am almost certain, that RHD Travis Hamonic is going to want to play with virtually his home town Jets, so Kulak for their cap reasons is likely a better fit. 

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13 hours ago, claremont said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/montreal-canadiens-chiarot-edmundson-expansion/?fbclid=IwAR2O4i8lQodIfcP3iOL7hCmJR3nXU8_SsubZUJStMj0KiS8L06FPDbaECRA

Article by the hockey writers on which defensemen to protect in the Kraken ED next year. Speculation that Kulak could be traded for cap room / roster space although I think for this coming season, Kulak provides additional depth for us. Writers think Edmundson is a preferred depth piece to be protected over Chiarot. Winnipeg is in dire need of some better LHD and have LTIR injury cap relief as Bryan Little is unlikely to come back this season. There is no rush to make a deal, but I could see something happening here. I am almost certain, that RHD Travis Hamonic is going to want to play with virtually his home town Jets, so Kulak for their cap reasons is likely a better fit. 

Its going to be interesting to see what - if anything - MB does to try to limit his exposures.

That said, i think they believe Allen is the most desirable player we'll have exposed.  And its hard to argue with that.  Assuming he has a good year, he's got to be one of the top 3-4 goalies who will be left exposed and his contract is very appealing too. 

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^^ FWIW re: Kulak, Julien did an interview yesterday that seemed to leave him as the odd man out. Some of the stuff the Habs reporters pieced together from that interview and previous conversations:

- Edmundson said MB led him to believe he would be playing with Petry (oddly reminiscent of how MB promised Alzner he would get that role).

- CJ also pointed out that both Mete and Romanov could play either the left or right side and give him flexibility.

- He added that he doesn't feel as comfortable with Kulak on the right. When asked about what role he envisioned for Kulak, he stated that "it's always good to have depth"

- MB had previously stated that Juulsen couldn't be counted on to be a healthy option and that Fleury could be ceded to the AHL easily without risk of losing him.

 

All that seemed to suggest that the Habs will go into the season with the worst possible configuration for their defence and play Chiarot-Weber and Edmundson-Petry as their top 4, followed by Mete-Romanov having the inside edge for the 3rd pairing with one guy playing the off-side. The 7th job would be Kulak's unless he's dealt or Juulsen supplants him. Utterly disappointed by all of this... the defence will be our downfall.

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On 10/20/2020 at 6:02 PM, maas_art said:

The only negative I have heard about him is that he showed up to the play in camp out of shape, but a number of NHL players (Vets even) did that around the league too. I assume, not getting even a single game, he learned his lesson.   Ive never heard of him referenced as a Prima Donna. 

There was some issue when he was first sent down ... Bouchard or Julien made a comment about RP having to learn "it's part of the game when you're a prospect".   Report was Poehling was sulking.  

Also, somebody else said Poehling is faster than Danault.   Quite the opposite.    That is what is currently holding Poehling back is his foot speed, he's average at best.    He could become a good defensive center/winger at some point ... he's got the size, the defensive awareness ... just needs to get a bit faster.    

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5 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

... the defence will be our downfall.

You mean like every other year under MB?

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5 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

You mean like every other year under MB?

Essentially. And the sad part is that it wouldn't have been that hard to fix if MB stopped with his obsession over bigger, tough defensive defencemen. Murray, Allen, Drewiske, Alzner, Schlemko, Davidson, Benn, Chiarot, Edmundson, etc... When MB has gone after a skilled player, it's often times been a guy past his prime, like Gonchar, Kaberle, or Streit. The one guy MB acquired who had skill and whom advanced stats predicted would be great here was Petry, and that's what he's been... a great skater with a good first pass and strong possession stats who can provide offence. Need to focus more on finding another Petry or using the guys within the organization who can skate and play with skill more.

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11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ FWIW re: Kulak, Julien did an interview yesterday that seemed to leave him as the odd man out. Some of the stuff the Habs reporters pieced together from that interview and previous conversations:

- Edmundson said MB led him to believe he would be playing with Petry (oddly reminiscent of how MB promised Alzner he would get that role).

- CJ also pointed out that both Mete and Romanov could play either the left or right side and give him flexibility.

- He added that he doesn't feel as comfortable with Kulak on the right. When asked about what role he envisioned for Kulak, he stated that "it's always good to have depth"

- MB had previously stated that Juulsen couldn't be counted on to be a healthy option and that Fleury could be ceded to the AHL easily without risk of losing him.

 

All that seemed to suggest that the Habs will go into the season with the worst possible configuration for their defence and play Chiarot-Weber and Edmundson-Petry as their top 4, followed by Mete-Romanov having the inside edge for the 3rd pairing with one guy playing the off-side. The 7th job would be Kulak's unless he's dealt or Juulsen supplants him. Utterly disappointed by all of this... the defence will be our downfall.

I agree... hard to believe that Kulak is the odd-man out before we really know what we have in a Mete-Romanov pairing

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