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2020-21 State Of The Habs


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2 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

Gustafasson our top D during this series????? I love Petry but you gave him a B . He was on for most of the goals against and didn't look great offensively. I wonder if he's nursing something.

Weber a D???? He played great he broke up numerous plats around the net and played great defensively (which is what a defenseman is supposed to do) 

Throw "Corsi" out the window watch the games! Players that are playing in shutdown roles usually don't look as good in possession areas but are doing a very important part of the job. Gusta looked okay in one partial game , he looked nervous as did Kulak in the other game he was in. 

I would like to see Romanov get so time against the Jets because they are a physical team and he can play physical. 

To each their own opinion but I think sometimes it's to easy to get caught up in advanced stats.  Remember Toronto is a team very heavy on advanced stats usage. We just beat them. I also think the biggest factor happened in game 1. Toronto isn't the same without Tavares  

Just a few clarifications on what I wrote...

1. My grades are based on how players fill the role/ice time/expectations they are given. In Gus' case, he played his role well. We dominated puck control when he was on the ice at ES, and he was the most successful of all D men on the PP too. It doesn't mean he's the guy I'm throwing out in all situations or that he's my favorite D man.

2. I gave Petry a B-. He was still one of our stronger possession defenceman and one of our better ones at moving the puck for breakouts and zone entries. I agree with you that he failed to meet expectations for offensive production. He was on for 6 goals against and 3 for at ES, compared to 4 against and 2 for for Weber, 5 and 5 for Edmundson, and 4 and 5 for Chiarot. If you look at expected goals for (ie measuring how many goals should have gone in with them on the ice if you remove the goaltending being exceptionally strong or weak), then Petry is actually ahead of Weber and Chiarot. I don't think he played great, but he was still decent, and as noted in my rankings, I had Gus, Chiarot, and Edmundson all ahead of him in terms of their performances.

3. With Weber, I gave him a C-, not a D. He made some good plays defensively, but he also made a large number of bad plays. He has frequent clearing attempts where his passes were soft or where his dump outs didn't make it or simply turned possession over to the Leafs. His possession numbers and expected goals for were weak.

4. Agreed with you on Romanov, I think it's time we see him, especially given he'll be fresh while the rest of the team has been skating a lot.

5. Advanced stats don't tell you who will win, they tell you who has better odds of winning. There's always going to be some amount of luck and variation in outcomes. As you said, the Leafs lost Tavares, which hurt them a lot. Price far exceeded his regular season stats. Those two things alone explain a shift. It doesn't mean the players played better than expected. The Leafs had the better stats during the series, they had more expected goals, and they had more actual goals. And if you were to replay the series ten times, the data suggests the Leafs would win it more times than the Habs. It tells us that Price shut them down. It doesn't mean advanced stats don't work as a predictive tool... no tool is perfect.

 

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8 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

Any updates on Drouin?

No. The team previously said they were planning that he would not be back this year but that they didn't have any exact news. Haven't heard any new updates since the start of the playoffs, so I expect that they still don't see him returning at any point.

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2 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

No. The team previously said they were planning that he would not be back this year but that they didn't have any exact news. Haven't heard any new updates since the start of the playoffs, so I expect that they still don't see him returning at any point.

Ah man, too bad. I was still hoping for him to maybe return during the playoffs. Been looking around everyhwere but couldn't find any news, thanks for the update!

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On 5/31/2021 at 2:09 PM, ChiLla said:

If memory serves and the reports were accurate, Bergevin tried to get Cody Glass for Pacioretty but ended up having to "settle" for Suzuki, Tatar, and a 2nd rounder, which in retrospect was probably a blessing in disguise. I haven't followed Glass at all but it looks like we ended up with the better player.

...the point I was making is that Bergevin deserves credit for pulling the trigger at all ....maybe he was ecstatic that Vegas offered Suzuki and a proven 20 goal scorer and a draft pick ...Bergevin was willing to wait a year or 2 for Suzuki to develop to get a centre with upside and happily took the deal not just "settled " . We don't know the ins and outs of those trade negotiations ....lucky for us Suzuki  stepped right in  . 

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5 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

...the point I was making is that Bergevin deserves credit for pulling the trigger at all ....maybe he was ecstatic that Vegas offered Suzuki and a proven 20 goal scorer and a draft pick ...Bergevin was willing to wait a year or 2 for Suzuki to develop to get a centre with upside and happily took the deal not just "settled " . We don't know the ins and outs of those trade negotiations ....lucky for us Suzuki  stepped right in  . 

I wasn't disagreeing with you and understand the point you were making, the trade turned out well for both teams, all I was saying is that according to reports they really wanted Cody Glass. Maybe it was a negotiating strategy and they were actually after Suzuki from the start, but we'll probably never know.

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1 hour ago, arpem-can said:

...the point I was making is that Bergevin deserves credit for pulling the trigger at all ....maybe he was ecstatic that Vegas offered Suzuki and a proven 20 goal scorer and a draft pick ...Bergevin was willing to wait a year or 2 for Suzuki to develop to get a centre with upside and happily took the deal not just "settled " . We don't know the ins and outs of those trade negotiations ....lucky for us Suzuki  stepped right in  . 

 

1 hour ago, ChiLla said:

I wasn't disagreeing with you and understand the point you were making, the trade turned out well for both teams, all I was saying is that according to reports they really wanted Cody Glass. Maybe it was a negotiating strategy and they were actually after Suzuki from the start, but we'll probably never know.

A few points of clarification based on what we have been told in the media:

1. Bergevin himself said the reason he traded Pacioretty was because Pacioretty had asked for a trade the season prior and that he did not see any chance of re-signing him. Pacioretty denies he asked for a trade, but MB insists this was his reason for the deal.

2. George McPhee said the deal from Vegas' end was contingent on being able to negotiate an extension with Max before the deal went down, which they did. He said MB was reluctant to let them negotiate prior but caved in and accepted because (in McPhee's words) Montreal had already had another trade in place for Pacioretty that fell through because the other team couldn't negotiate an extension first. The rumors at that time from multiple sources were that the Habs were very close to a deal with LA and were after Gabriel Villardi but might have settled on Anderson-Dolan, along with one of Toffoli or Pearson as the primary parts of the package coming back.

3. MB himself stated that his objective in a trade for Max had been to get a top-tier center prospect back as part of the deal and that the deal he ended up making was the best deal he had on the table because he was on a timeline to get Max out before the start of training camp. He said he would have liked to get more but that this was best move available and he didn't want to wait any longer. He also stated that the team didn't know whether Suzuki would end up being a center or a winger and that they knew he had been used mainly as a winger prior to the trade and that they felt they already had Kotkaniemi and Poehling in the wings if it turned out NS ended up being a winger.

4. MB also stated that they knew Tatar's play had dropped off but that it was over a short time period and that they were hoping he could rebound to being a player who scored 20 goals and helped the PP.

 

Put all that together and it sounds like MB wasn't overly interested in trading for prospects except that his hand was forced by MP. It also sounds like Suzuki was far from being his first target, neither as Vegas being the team to trade with nor even with Suzuki being the top target within that organization (yes, multiple rumors MB wanted Glass, the bigger prospect with more of a pedigree as a true center). That's what we have on record from the two GM's more or less.

I think the basic assessment of all of this is

1. MB made a good trade for the organization.

2. I wish he made more of these types of deals, where we got rid of a player before they declined and recouped strong young, cost-controlled assets in return.

3. I don't think he knew he would get a player who would turn into a top 6 center and deliberately refrained from predicting this after what happened with Drouin.

4. I don't think Suzuki was even one of his top 3 choices as a target in a trade (we also heard about discussions with Stl for Robert Thomas and Fla for Borgstrom) and he clearly wanted a guy who was more clearly a center and couldn't get one.

5. I also don't think he expected Tatar to be as good as he was for us.

 

So overall, it was the right type of trade to make and I'm glad he accepted making it, but it also sounds like he kind of backed into the players he acquired and wouldn't have even bothered looking at this type of trade if it wasn't forced upon him.

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2 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Any updates on Drouin?

Nothing. 

Id be surprised to see him in the playoffs (to my knowledge he's not even skating) which is too bad but i am sure they know what is best for him &  being away from the rink is perhaps it right now.

Its funny, we talked about how there was zero chance of him being exposed at the ED but now im not so sure. Not that anyone would pick him with no updates but its possible we dont use a space on him if he's still not with the team. 

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Do we take the chance and resign Perry??  I would certainly like to depending on cap??

 

Bigger question is do we look at resigning PD after what he did in game 5 - 7?  I know it comes to cap hit but man  I don't think he worth much more than 5 mil per and from what I have seen he is swinging for the fences

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1 minute ago, 26NCounting said:

Do we take the chance and resign Perry??  I would certainly like to depending on cap??

 

Bigger question is do we look at resigning PD after what he did in game 5 - 7?  I know it comes to cap hit but man  I don't think he worth much more than 5 mil per and from what I have seen he is swinging for the fences

i think we should, his cap hit will probably remain the same. The only question is does he want to stay here or to Toronto which is where he originally wanted to go

I wouldn't pay Danault more than 4.5, I don't mind giving him term 

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2 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

Do we take the chance and resign Perry??  I would certainly like to depending on cap??

 

Bigger question is do we look at resigning PD after what he did in game 5 - 7?  I know it comes to cap hit but man  I don't think he worth much more than 5 mil per and from what I have seen he is swinging for the fences

Perry at 1 year at league min? Sign me up.  No problem bringing him back a year at a time for $1m or less.

When you look at the guys we have to resign, we have JK (RFA) Lehks (RFA) and then Tatar, Danault, Armia as UFA.   Yes, guys like Perry, Frolik and Staal are UFA but those are minimal, 1 year deals if we even decide to.   We also have a couple of RFA in the minors (Fleury and Leskinen I believe). 

With the raise for JK, Gallagher and Petry's new (more expensive) deals kicking in and a few other minor pieces, the question becomes, who can we afford to resign? I dont think we can keep Tatar, Danaul AND Armia.   Obviously, we may lose someone like Edmundson or Chiarot ($3.5m each) in the ED which would free up a little space.  And MB could trade lower value guys like Byron but ultimately they will have to make a decision.

Of the 3 Armia will be the cheapest obviously.  Tatar looks unlikely to be resigned since he's been a healthy scratch but things can change.  I think the team would like to resign Danault but a lot of it is going to have to do with term and money.   Im not saying Danault is expendable yet but with Evans coming alive lately and Poehling having a bounce-back  season in the minors, could we stumble along without PD?  Maybe.  Byron can play 4th line centre (if we keep him) or, you can always find a nate thompson type player on the UFA market as a band-aid solution.

I get the feeling the team will not offer Phil as much as they did last summer. He has definitely lost power in the negotiations. Not sure they want to walk away from him, but they just might.   

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

Do we take the chance and resign Perry??  I would certainly like to depending on cap??

 

Bigger question is do we look at resigning PD after what he did in game 5 - 7?  I know it comes to cap hit but man  I don't think he worth much more than 5 mil per and from what I have seen he is swinging for the fences

As long as he's playing the way he has, he can stay for as long as he likes if it works out for us cap-wise.

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2 hours ago, electron58 said:

That'll get Gustafsson benched.

He was already benched LOL and he should be. That is why he gets 6 minutes a game. Imagine having that paly 12 to 14 minutes against players like Mathews, Marner, MCdavids, Wheeler of the.. 

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Danault is pretty much the most under appreciated player in the league both of other fans and sadly, even Hab fans. It’s hilarious. Other centres hate playing against him so much. 
 

this guy needs to be kept at a high price even. And for a good handful  of years. 

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7 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

Ya know, we brought in experience. our top scorers are Toffu, 6 Pts., Staal 6 Pts., and Perry 5 PTs. 

 

Yep in the playoffs all the other stuff goes out the window. it is a different game players play harder and it gets much tighter and meaner high flying pretty boys like the Laffs get brought down to earth and all of their fancy stats go away. on another note I really hope Evans is going to be ok we are much much better with him in the lineup.

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20 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

 

A few points of clarification based on what we have been told in the media:

1. Bergevin himself said the reason he traded Pacioretty was because Pacioretty had asked for a trade the season prior and that he did not see any chance of re-signing him. Pacioretty denies he asked for a trade, but MB insists this was his reason for the deal.

2. George McPhee said the deal from Vegas' end was contingent on being able to negotiate an extension with Max before the deal went down, which they did. He said MB was reluctant to let them negotiate prior but caved in and accepted because (in McPhee's words) Montreal had already had another trade in place for Pacioretty that fell through because the other team couldn't negotiate an extension first. The rumors at that time from multiple sources were that the Habs were very close to a deal with LA and were after Gabriel Villardi but might have settled on Anderson-Dolan, along with one of Toffoli or Pearson as the primary parts of the package coming back.

3. MB himself stated that his objective in a trade for Max had been to get a top-tier center prospect back as part of the deal and that the deal he ended up making was the best deal he had on the table because he was on a timeline to get Max out before the start of training camp. He said he would have liked to get more but that this was best move available and he didn't want to wait any longer. He also stated that the team didn't know whether Suzuki would end up being a center or a winger and that they knew he had been used mainly as a winger prior to the trade and that they felt they already had Kotkaniemi and Poehling in the wings if it turned out NS ended up being a winger.

4. MB also stated that they knew Tatar's play had dropped off but that it was over a short time period and that they were hoping he could rebound to being a player who scored 20 goals and helped the PP.

 

Put all that together and it sounds like MB wasn't overly interested in trading for prospects except that his hand was forced by MP. It also sounds like Suzuki was far from being his first target, neither as Vegas being the team to trade with nor even with Suzuki being the top target within that organization (yes, multiple rumors MB wanted Glass, the bigger prospect with more of a pedigree as a true center). That's what we have on record from the two GM's more or less.

I think the basic assessment of all of this is

1. MB made a good trade for the organization.

2. I wish he made more of these types of deals, where we got rid of a player before they declined and recouped strong young, cost-controlled assets in return.

3. I don't think he knew he would get a player who would turn into a top 6 center and deliberately refrained from predicting this after what happened with Drouin.

4. I don't think Suzuki was even one of his top 3 choices as a target in a trade (we also heard about discussions with Stl for Robert Thomas and Fla for Borgstrom) and he clearly wanted a guy who was more clearly a center and couldn't get one.

5. I also don't think he expected Tatar to be as good as he was for us.

 

So overall, it was the right type of trade to make and I'm glad he accepted making it, but it also sounds like he kind of backed into the players he acquired and wouldn't have even bothered looking at this type of trade if it wasn't forced upon him.

so overall Bergevin doesn't deserve very much credit because he lucked out and the deal was forced on him...good thing for the Habs he shopped Paccs at all who ended up with a solid contract and brought a great return ...I guess pure luck is a good thing 

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10 hours ago, dreegking said:

Danault is pretty much the most under appreciated player in the league both of other fans and sadly, even Hab fans. It’s hilarious. Other centres hate playing against him so much. 
this guy needs to be kept at a high price even. And for a good handful  of years. 

I like Danault, but I don't know about him re-signing here. Bergevin already offered him a multi-year contract that he turned down. As Kotkaniemi and Suzuki continue to develop, you always need to consider moving on from currently established player in an effort to manage the cap.

I think Jake Evans is turning into a reliable bottom six player as well. It's perhaps Evans, moving forward, that would be most useful in replacing Danault's defensive responsibilities. Not saying Evans is there yet, but he was having a stellar season until Scheifele nearly killed him last night.

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14 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I like Danault, but I don't know about him re-signing here. Bergevin already offered him a multi-year contract that he turned down. As Kotkaniemi and Suzuki continue to develop, you always need to consider moving on from currently established player in an effort to manage the cap.

I think Jake Evans is turning into a reliable bottom six player as well. It's perhaps Evans, moving forward, that would be most useful in replacing Danault's defensive responsibilities. Not saying Evans is there yet, but he was having a stellar season until Scheifele nearly killed him last night.

Poehling also had a huge bounce back season this year before the injury. 

Its risky to go with those 4 but there are UFAs who could provide a band-aid solution for a couple of years.  Danault likely wants at least 5 years... is that in our best interest in years 3-5? 

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10 hours ago, dreegking said:

Danault is pretty much the most under appreciated player in the league both of other fans and sadly, even Hab fans. It’s hilarious. Other centres hate playing against him so much. 

this guy needs to be kept at a high price even. And for a good handful  of years. 

 

8 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I like Danault, but I don't know about him re-signing here. Bergevin already offered him a multi-year contract that he turned down. As Kotkaniemi and Suzuki continue to develop, you always need to consider moving on from currently established player in an effort to manage the cap.

I think Jake Evans is turning into a reliable bottom six player as well. It's perhaps Evans, moving forward, that would be most useful in replacing Danault's defensive responsibilities. Not saying Evans is there yet, but he was having a stellar season until Scheifele nearly killed him last night.

The trouble is that Danault is not a #1 centre in terms of offensive production (averages 10 goals, 30 assists) but is a #1 centre on defensive side. I don't know that there are a lot of comparables but Max Domi even got $5.3 million and PD is twice the player he is when it counts. There are a lot of bad centre contracts. Kadri is at $4.5M. I believe PD wants to play in the top 2 lines, and perhaps he does for the next couple of years, but north of $5M is too rich IMO. Perhaps the deal is front loaded with a large signing bonus so that he averages out to $5.0M over a 4 year term.  I am a fan of PD but in this cap constrained era, I don;t think he should be paid Gallagher type money ($6.5M)

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37 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Poehling also had a huge bounce back season this year before the injury. 

Its risky to go with those 4 but there are UFAs who could provide a band-aid solution for a couple of years.  Danault likely wants at least 5 years... is that in our best interest in years 3-5? 

Forgot about Poehling. :D Maybe he can continue to ascend to solid bottom-six NHL forward!

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17 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Forgot about Poehling. :D Maybe he can continue to ascend to solid bottom-six NHL forward!

He's scored at nearly a PPG pace in the AHL now & he's proven he can play at the NHL level in a bottom 6 role, so i think there's a legit chance he could (as early as next year) take on a 3rd or 4th line role.  Im still not 100% convinced he wouldnt be more effective at wing than centre but id be willing to sign a veteran centre for 1 or 2 years and take my chances with the 4 young guys.  It seems a shame to lose Danault and Tatar for nothing but i guess they were essentially our "rentals" this year by not trading them before the deadline. And lets face it, without Danault we might well have not made it out of the last round. 

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I like Danault but he price himself out. Would you rather have Danault at 5.5 or RNH at 7?! I think the decision is obvious if your thinking with your head and not your heart. We can't overpay for a guy who can't score

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3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I like Danault but he price himself out. Would you rather have Danault at 5.5 or RNH at 7?! I think the decision is obvious if your thinking with your head and not your heart. We can't overpay for a guy who can't score

RNH is overpaid at 7 , he's not great defensively if you're not signing Danualt and his stats are propped up quite a bit by playing with McDavid and Draisaital

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