HabsRuleForever

Brendan Gallagher

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Its sad because Gallagher deserves the world as far as I'm concerned but I think we need to let the season playout, at least part way before we hand out big contracts. The reality is we're going to lose some players to free agency, that's just the way it is

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13 minutes ago, HabsRuleForever said:

According to TSN contract extension talks have broken off.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/agent-talks-between-montreal-canadiens-brendan-gallagher-have-broken-off-1.1538280

 

There still plenty of time though.

Gallagher is going to be a tricky one.  Obviously his last deal was incredibly team-friendly but you have to remember that when he signed it, it was a risky one for the team. A lot of fans thought it was overpayment. He skipped the bridge deal most of his teammates were taking & went with a long term (slightly higher) contract.  $3.75m seems like nothing for a player of his stature now, but when he signed it, he had never broken 20 goals, and just barely broken 40 points.  He was a 2 year vet - a 5th round pick. The cap was under $70m at the time too, which is something to consider. 

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the power was all Brendans because you couldnt fathom the team trading him & making Armia our #1RW but now we have Anderson. Now we have Toffoli.  Brendan is still very important on this team but he's lost some leverage.   

I suspect that he's going to want the payment to at least partially compensate the cheap contract he is just finishing up but again, it was a contract that initially benefitted him, not the team - much like Anderson's contract (if he performs as well as they think he will). 

Bergevin seems to have developed an internal salary structure whereby the top forward is making $5.5m  I think he'd go slightly above that for Gallagher (who is the heart and soul of the forward group) and  Im sure that at some point a guy like Suzuki or JK may break that but for now, I dont think he's handing out $8m contracts unless you're an elite forward.   

My guess is that he's offering gallagher something in the $6m range which fits with our salary structure but Im sure Gallagher's agent is saying that $7m-$7.5m+ is market value. 

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I have a hard time figuring out what Gallagher is worth. He's obviously very valuable to the team. But, what do you offer him?

$6 million/5 years? On the right side, he's definitely worth more than Anderson and Toffoli, who just got brand new deals.

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32 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Gallagher is going to be a tricky one.  Obviously his last deal was incredibly team-friendly but you have to remember that when he signed it, it was a risky one for the team. A lot of fans thought it was overpayment. He skipped the bridge deal most of his teammates were taking & went with a long term (slightly higher) contract.  $3.75m seems like nothing for a player of his stature now, but when he signed it, he had never broken 20 goals, and just barely broken 40 points.  He was a 2 year vet - a 5th round pick. The cap was under $70m at the time too, which is something to consider. 

Up until a couple of weeks ago, the power was all Brendans because you couldnt fathom the team trading him & making Armia our #1RW but now we have Anderson. Now we have Toffoli.  Brendan is still very important on this team but he's lost some leverage.   

I suspect that he's going to want the payment to at least partially compensate the cheap contract he is just finishing up but again, it was a contract that initially benefitted him, not the team - much like Anderson's contract (if he performs as well as they think he will). 

Bergevin seems to have developed an internal salary structure whereby the top forward is making $5.5m  I think he'd go slightly above that for Gallagher (who is the heart and soul of the forward group) and  Im sure that at some point a guy like Suzuki or JK may break that but for now, I dont think he's handing out $8m contracts unless you're an elite forward.   

My guess is that he's offering gallagher something in the $6m range which fits with our salary structure but Im sure Gallagher's agent is saying that $7m-$7.5m+ is market value. 

 

31 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I have a hard time figuring out what Gallagher is worth. He's obviously very valuable to the team. But, what do you offer him?

$6 million/5 years? On the right side, he's definitely worth more than Anderson and Toffoli, who just got brand new deals.

$6 million over 5 years seems to be reasonable value. Gallagher (if you project from 2019-20, 22 goals over 59 games), has been consistent at around 30 goals and I agree he he has leadership value - heart and soul. On the downside, he has a bit of injury mileage on him from broken hands from shots, and now the broken jaw. Perhaps MB had a plan thinking this negotiation would be difficult hence the signings of insurance in Anderson and Toffoli. It is going to come down to performance. If Toffoli and Anderson deliver on the promise, then sorry Brendan you may be redundant. If Gallagher performs and the other two miss their mark, then he bet on himself and Bergevin will have to up the ante and pay the higher market value, or risk his loss to the UFA market. 

I'm certain Brendan and his agent are going to watch the market for Hoffman, Dadanov, Reinhart and Duclair over forthcoming days / weeks to apply similar comparisons

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16 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I have a hard time figuring out what Gallagher is worth. He's obviously very valuable to the team. But, what do you offer him?

$6 million/5 years? On the right side, he's definitely worth more than Anderson and Toffoli, who just got brand new deals.

I think they'll work this eventually but the flat cap and uncertainty about the NHL given the world we live in today should lower expectations for players in terms of huge salary increases ...I had Gallagher pegged for about $ 6 mill and 5 years ...would another team give him $7 ?...I'm thinking not ....he should get more than Anderson but Toffoli took a cut from his last deal and was maybe a result of overall lower AVV around the league ...2 years ago Pietrangelo would have gotten at least $ 10+mill per and term ...it would be nice to know what Bergevin is offering and what Gallagher is asking 

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Gallagher has been vastly underpaid the past few years, but as a GM you can't get suckered into over-paying for the past. You can't give Alzner 5+M a year because he played big minutes in Washington. You can't pay a guy because he was once a 30-goal scorer if you don't think he can do that for you again regularly. As I posted elsewhere, the average forward peaks in terms of value to their team around age 23, and we've seen plenty of contracts to 28-32 year olds handed out where the player just literally fell off a cliff shortly into their deal. Look at deals for Backes, Lucic, Neal, Eriksson, etc. There will be guys who succeed later in their careers, but I don't think you can bank on it.

Gallagher is always going to be an injury risk because of his style of play but I think it's reasonable to believe he can be a 25-goal scorer for another 3 years. After that, there are reasonable chances his production and consistency because of wear-and-tear drop off somewhat. So the ideal contract for the Habs would be a 4-year deal similar in length to what Toffoli got. Past 32-33 years old becomes more of a gamble to the team. I think you could argue he's worth 7M a year for the next 3 years and then maybe 4.5-5M for the 3 years after that. So to me, a reasonable deal that pays Gallagher his worth but doesn't overpay him into the high-risk years would be something in the range of a 5-year deal for 6.M AAV or a 6-year deal in the range of a 5.75M AAV. I'm sure he could find someone who would pay him 6.5-7M for 5 years but I'm just not sure he's valuable enough to us to do that. He's a winger, he's had his share of injuries, and we have other RW options coming through the pipeline in addition to having Anderson and Toffoli signed long-term. So we don't need to force a contract here. I certainly don't think he's more valuable to us than Petry over the next 3-4 years. If he wants more than what we can afford, I think he'd largely be tradeable for at least a 1st round pick and a good prospect.

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13 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

If he wants more than what we can afford, I think he'd largely be tradeable for at least a 1st round pick and a good prospect.

And this is definitely an option.   With Anderson - Toffoli (who can be used on either side of course) and Armia you have a solid group of RW now.

Im not necessarily advocating we trade Brendan, I really like him, but if your return was similar to what we got with Patches but this time a LD, for example, Id be interested.

I dont think Colorado would necessarily covet him but lets say they feel like they need a guy between Rantanen and Saad.  You could pitch an offer like  Gallagher  for  Byram + 1st + Donskoi  (might need to throw in a pick from our end)


I would hate to lose him - just like i was sad to see Pacioretty go - but man am i glad we have Suzuki now.  Adding a top flight young D man right now would be a very good plan. Now that we've shored up our RW position... thats certainly an option. 

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I coukd see this situation getting interesting especially with kk needing a new contract next year and im guessing Suzuki the year after

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Gallagher is the kind of player you want to be a Hab for life, but that takes both sides.

MB gambled on BG's first contract, and BG made the gamble payout. Every. Single. Shift.  

BG will be 29 at the time of his next contract, in a flat cap era.  $6-$7m for 5 years I think is realistic.  

 

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I would do as much as 7 Mil x 8 years front loaded with a NMC. Gally is no Jean Beliveau in terms of skill but his value to the organization and his loyalty to the Habs through the years is equal to Beliveau's and if there has been 1 Montreal Canadien over the last 40 years that deserves to retire as a Habit is most definitely Gallagher.

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15 minutes ago, Windoe said:

Gallagher is the kind of player you want to be a Hab for life, but that takes both sides.

MB gambled on BG's first contract, and BG made the gamble payout. Every. Single. Shift.  

BG will be 29 at the time of his next contract, in a flat cap era.  $6-$7m for 5 years I think is realistic.  

 

this could be the very reason Bergevin went out and acquired Anderson and Toffoli ....I think Montreal is offering close to $6 mill or slightly less and Gallagher thinks he's worth $ 7 mill and term ....there's lots of time 

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29 minutes ago, Windoe said:

Gallagher is the kind of player you want to be a Hab for life, but that takes both sides.

MB gambled on BG's first contract, and BG made the gamble payout. Every. Single. Shift.  

BG will be 29 at the time of his next contract, in a flat cap era.  $6-$7m for 5 years I think is realistic.  
 

I can live with 6.  Maybe 6.5.  If he has to have 7 Id want less term. As BT pointed out, you've probably got 2-4 more prime BG years. So $7m for that last year would be tough to swallow.  

 

8 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I would do as much as 7 Mil x 8 years front loaded with a NMC. Gally is no Jean Beliveau in terms of skill but his value to the organization and his loyalty to the Habs through the years is equal to Beliveau's and if there has been 1 Montreal Canadien over the last 40 years that deserves to retire as a Habit is most definitely Gallagher.

BG $7m per for the next 3-4 years? No problem.  BG for $7m per in years 4-8 would be ugly imho.   

I dont have a problem with him retiring as a Hab but then you work out a 3-4 year deal and then take it 1 year at a time after that. 

 

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5 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

this could be the very reason Bergevin went out and acquired Anderson and Toffoli ....I think Montreal is offering close to $6 mill or slightly less and Gallagher thinks he's worth $ 7 mill and term ....there's lots of time 

Exactly - no reason to panic. In a cap world we also have to be very careful not to fall in love with a player and look at the value. I suspect it is just agent positioning to play on the fan’s sympathy while they look at comparables 

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I think the longer the deal, the less the AAV for BG's next contract given that he'll be signing it at 29yo (unless there is an extension):

Some examples:
$7m x 3 for BG's 29-31 age seems good for everyone, as does
$5m x 8, for BG's 29-36 age, where the team wins on the AAV in the first few years, and BG wins in the last few years

 

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I would have been OK trading Gally a year ago when his value was super high. I could only imagine the return at that time. If MB is stupid enough to sign him to a 7 or 8 year deal,, that would likely make him untradable. I can't for the life of me see BG stay healthy for that length of time, and if he needs to modify his playing style because of his beat up body there's no way we'll get value on the deal.

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I'm sure alot of teams would want to trade for Gallagher, but Vancouver in particular makes alot of sense.

Would you trade Gallagher for RW Boeser (23 yo, 6'1, 210lbs, 2015-23, 5.875-2 then RFA)? I could see that being the basis for a discussion at least between Benning and MB.

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19 minutes ago, Windoe said:

I'm sure alot of teams would want to trade for Gallagher, but Vancouver in particular makes alot of sense.

Would you trade Gallagher for RW Boeser (23 yo, 6'1, 210lbs, 2015-23, 5.875-2 then RFA)? I could see that being the basis for a discussion at least between Benning and MB.

Reporters out of Vancouver have already reported that Jim Benning would be interested if he were available. I'm sure you'd find a dozen other teams who'd love to have him. I think we could get a return similar to what Pacioretty brought in, even as a rental. Gallagher, if re-signed for 5 years or less and an AAV of 6M or under, would still have tremendous trade value at any point in that contract. A deal longer than 5 years or a higher AAV likely make him a difficult player to trade.

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Reporters out of Vancouver have already reported that Jim Benning would be interested if he were available. I'm sure you'd find a dozen other teams who'd love to have him. I think we could get a return similar to what Pacioretty brought in, even as a rental. Gallagher, if re-signed for 5 years or less and an AAV of 6M or under, would still have tremendous trade value at any point in that contract. A deal longer than 5 years or a higher AAV likely make him a difficult player to trade.

Krieder got 7 years at 6.5 Mil at 29 YO, are you saying that Gallagher isn't worth as much as Krieder? Krieder has the size advantage but even still the injuries over the last 4 seasons for Gally have been:

16-17 Broken Hand (Weber)

17-18 Played all 82 games

18-19 Played all 82 games

19-20 concussion (Chiarot kneed him in the head)

In conclusion IF our own players stop injuring the guy his injury history wouldn't even be a concern.

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6 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Krieder got 7 years at 6.5 Mil at 29 YO, are you saying that Gallagher isn't worth as much as Krieder? Krieder has the size advantage but even still the injuries over the last 4 seasons for Gally have been:

16-17 Broken Hand (Weber)

17-18 Played all 82 games

18-19 Played all 82 games

19-20 concussion (Chiarot kneed him in the head)

In conclusion IF our own players stop injuring the guy his injury history wouldn't even be a concern.

Is Gallagher as valuable as Kreider? Sure. Would I pay Kreider 6.5M for 7 years? No. So I also wouldn't give that to Gallagher.

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25 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Is Gallagher as valuable as Kreider? Sure. Would I pay Kreider 6.5M for 7 years? No. So I also wouldn't give that to Gallagher.

Agreed, Kreider also signed his inflated deal pre-COVID, so I don't think it should be used as a benchmark for Gallagher. I love Gally and would absolutely hate to lose him, he's the heart and soul of this team IMO and has given us more than we could have possibly asked for under his current deal. But if that's truly what he's after, it's a pass for me. There's a lot of mileage on that body already and 7-year deals hardly work out anyway, that's just too rich for my taste. Vancouver seems to be very interested, maybe there's a deal to be had around Virtanen/Gallagher if negotiations truly don't go anywhere down the road.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Is Gallagher as valuable as Kreider? Sure. Would I pay Kreider 6.5M for 7 years? No. So I also wouldn't give that to Gallagher.

Entirely rational thinking - Gallagher and his agent have an interesting choice in a new cap constrained world - do they bet on themselves hoping for the extra $1m or extra 2 years or do they take some financial security? I’m pretty certain the Habs staff play him next year and give him every chance to succeed. Just because other teams overpaid some comparables doesn’t mean MB has to make the same mistake 

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20 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I have a hard time figuring out what Gallagher is worth. He's obviously very valuable to the team. But, what do you offer him?

$6 million/5 years? On the right side, he's definitely worth more than Anderson and Toffoli, who just got brand new deals.

This is exactly what I would try to sign him for. Maybe $6 mil/ for 6 years.  Seems fair to me.

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20 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I have a hard time figuring out what Gallagher is worth. He's obviously very valuable to the team. But, what do you offer him?

$6 million/5 years? On the right side, he's definitely worth more than Anderson and Toffoli, who just got brand new deals.

But is he worth more than Anderson or Toffoli? On what basis? There's no doubt there's an emotional attachment to Gallagher here and that he's given a lot to this franchise, but when you remove emotion from the decision, is he really better? Toffoli and Gallagher were drafted in the same year, they're the same age. Their point totals and games played in both the regular season and in the same playoffs are remarkably similar. Toffoli is described by his ex-teammates as a heart-and-soul guy and a leader and a guy who shows up in big games. He's won a Cup. He's a little bigger than Gallagher. Other than the fact he wasn't drafted here and we don't know him as well, what exactly makes Gallagher that much more valuable than Toffoli? And don't get me wrong, I completely believe Gallagher's attachment to the organization counts for something, but I'm not sure it justifies a contract that's 2 years longer and 2M more per year more expensive when you can clearly go out and sign a UFA to a more reasonable deal to fill a similar role.

Then look at Anderson. He's two years younger. He's bigger and uses his size extremely well. He doesn't quite have the same point production as Gallagher, but he's also gotten a bit less opportunity in a scoring role.

So Toffoli's contract takes him to about 32. Anderson's takes him to about 33. Gallagher will be 29 when he signs his next deal, so if he wants a 3-4 year deal that pays him as much or more than Anderson and Toffoli, that's reasonable. 6M or even 6.25M on a 3-4 year deal would not be an overpayment. But for every year Gallagher wants tacked on to that, the assumption should be that his production and durability are dropping off. So if he wants a 6-7 year deal, I think the payment on those years needs to be lower. If he were to sign a 4-year deal at age 29 for 6M AAV, how much would he be worth at age 33 for the next 2-3 year? I don't think the odds are high anyone's giving him 6M+ at that time. Let's look at other prominent wingers who are in that 32-34 range right now... Phil Kessel, a very prolific scorer and Cup winner. Would you give him 6M+ today for the next 3 years? Milan Lucic. Kyle Okposo. Mats Zuccarello. James Neal. David Perron. Nick Foligno. Bobby Ryan. Wayne Simmonds. Patrick Maroon. All guys who were top 6 players at  one point in their careers. I wouldn't be giving any of them 6M a year for the next 3 years. Brad Marchand may be the one exception to the rule but he's far from being the expectation. My point is that it's great to have these players when they're 23 or 25 or even 29 but you can't be paying guys for their 30-35 years based on how they did in their 20's. The drop-off is real. Is Brendan Gallagher in his prime better than Wayne Simmonds or Bobby Ryan or Phil Kessel in their primes and what makes us think he's going to avoid seeing a drop-off in his play in a few years?

So yeah, if BG wants a 4 year-deal for 6M or so, sure. If he wants a longer contract, the AAV has to drop to compensate for that, and we frankly don't need to rush to sign him to a deal we don't like knowing we have Anderson, Toffoli, and potentially Ylonen and Caufield down the right side for the next 4 years. If he wants 7 years at 6+M AAV, I'd rather take a package like what we got from trading Pacioretty.

1 hour ago, claremont said:

Entirely rational thinking - Gallagher and his agent have an interesting choice in a new cap constrained world - do they bet on themselves hoping for the extra $1m or extra 2 years or do they take some financial security? I’m pretty certain the Habs staff play him next year and give him every chance to succeed. Just because other teams overpaid some comparables doesn’t mean MB has to make the same mistake 

Not even sure Gallagher's value will go up if he has a great year next year. He's not coming off a down year or anything and I don't think anyone's questioning his value over the next 3-4 years. Over that time, he's a 6M player. If he waits a year to sign, he's simply a year older and he's gone through another year of injury risk. I think it's to his advantage to sign as long a deal as he can up front. As I said, he's not getting a longer or better deal if he signs a 1-2 year deal now and then tries to go long term after the age of 30.

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Talks have broken down for a new contract. 

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