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3 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

I love what Allen brought to the team this year. He was solid and just what we needed. That said there are going to be options for a back up along with Primeau. Halak is going to be a free agent even. So I wouldn't go over board giving away picks ect. to make Seattle not take him. He's been good but if we lose him it won't break the team.

For sure. And I still believe the reason we traded for him - and them promptly gave him a cap-friendly 2 year extension - was to have him as an appealing option to expose during the ED.   I think they love what he brought but he was brought in for the sacrifice. I think the team still hopes Allen gets picked up over say Chiarot or Lehkonen or Evans or whomever they leave exposed. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.tsn.ca/canadian-expansion-draft-primer-2-0-for-the-seattle-kraken-1.1628561

 

MONTREAL CANADIENS

Protection Scheme: 7/3/1

Forwards (7)

Josh Anderson
Jonathan Drouin
Jake Evans
Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Artturi Lehkonen (RFA)
Tyler Toffoli

Defence (3)

Joel Edmundson
Jeff Petry (NMC)
Shea Weber

Goaltender (1)

Carey Price (NMC)

Potentially Exposed Players

F Joel Armia (UFA)
F Paul Byron
F Philip Danault (UFA)
F Tomas Tatar (UFA)
D Ben Chiarot
G Jake Allen

 

 Is it at all possible the Canadiens opt to expose Weber? It seems unlikely, especially given GM Marc Bergevin’s affinity for Man Mountain, but his contract runs through his 40th birthday and has cap recapture penalties, both limiting factors for an expansion franchise. Exposing Weber would allow the Habs to protect Chiarot.

- Montreal will need to sign one forward (Armia?) to meet the exposure requirements.

- If the Canadiens plan to re-sign other free agents, such as Danault or Tatar, it makes little sense to do it prior to the Expansion Draft.

What To Watch For

- Will Bergevin make a trade with Seattle to keep Allen in tandem with Price? Allen is signed to a team-friendly, two-year extension that kicks in next season, which makes him prime for plucking.

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https://www.si.com/hockey/news/2021-nhl-expansion-draft-preview-north-division

 

Projected protected list (7-3-1):

F – Josh Anderson
F – Brendan Gallagher
F – Jake Evans
F – Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F – Artturi Lehkonen
F – Phillip Danault
F – Tyler Toffoli
D – Ben Chiarot
D – Joel Edmundson
D – Jeff Petry
G – Carey Price

 

 

Key UFAs: Tomas Tatar (LW), Phillip Danault (C), Joel Armia (RW), Eric Staal (C), Erik Gustafsson (D), Jon Merrill (D)

Key RFAs: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C), Artturi Lehkonen

No-movement clauses: Carey Price, Jeff Petry, Brendan Gallagher

Help us, Seattle: With only about $12 million in cap space and so many important UFA decisions to make, the Habs would probably be comfortable with exposing Jonathan Drouin and his $5.5-million cap hit. Drouin, away from the team for personal reasons, could use a fresh start and has more upside than most of the players that will be available to the Kraken league-wide. A Drouin pick could constitute a win-win scenario.

Toughest decision: Will the Habs go for an 8-1 protection scheme or a 7-3-1? It depends on whether they feel the need to re-sign any UFAs before the draft. Phillip Danault and Tomas Tatar should be of interest to the Kraken during the early negotiation window, so GM Marc Bergevin might feel compelled to lock a UFA up early. Danault’s role as the shutdown center remains crucial to the Habs.

Top candidates to crack the Kraken: If the Kraken don’t target a UFA or snap up Drouin, Jake Allen could make sense as the veteran half of a goaltending platoon alongside a younger option such as Florida Panthers UFA Chris Driedger. If Montreal opts for a 7-3-1 plan, one of Joel Edmundson or Ben Chiarot could be available on ‘D’ – though the Habs might be wiser to expose Shea Weber knowing Seattle would have little interest in a 35-year-old with five years left at $7.86 million per.

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Exposing Weber would be the smartest play. Virtually no chance Seattle picks him, unless they truly think they can contend right off the bat. They'd be gambling a big Cap hit for a guy showing his wear and tear in his declining years to come. If by some miracle they did pick him up, would that really be disastrous for us? An extra 7.5 mill to find a replacement for what he would bring going forward is more then doable.  

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15 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Exposing Weber would be the smartest play. Virtually no chance Seattle picks him, unless they truly think they can contend right off the bat. They'd be gambling a big Cap hit for a guy showing his wear and tear in his declining years to come. If by some miracle they did pick him up, would that really be disastrous for us? An extra 7.5 mill to find a replacement for what he would bring going forward is more then doable.  

I don't think it happens for two reasons:

1. Optics: looks bad / insulting to leave our captain exposed (most media will ignore likelihood of Seattle taking on the contract, etc)

2. Trade option: While the contract is all risk for Seattle (main risk being Weber sticks around for love of the game or whatever, even when he's only making 1 million but keeps the large cap hit), they could always grab him to trade him. I suspect that even with the contract and his current age, there are still plenty of teams who would give up some positive value for Weber. The question is if that trade value is better than Chiarot or whoever else they could take instead? I agree Seattle would want nothing to do with a 35 year old player and his contract  (especially when they will be in a place to weaponize cap space), so IMO whether they take him would all comes down to his trade value, which is debatable.

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20 hours ago, PuckPundit said:

If a change of scenery could do Drouin good, Seattle picking him would clear $5.5 million cap space.  Wow!

Do you really think they will pick a player that is has secret issues and may very well be fighting deep demons. And a player who has never played to his contractual amount? For real? 

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On 6/26/2021 at 8:20 AM, H_T_L said:

Exposing Weber would be the smartest play. Virtually no chance Seattle picks him, unless they truly think they can contend right off the bat. They'd be gambling a big Cap hit for a guy showing his wear and tear in his declining years to come. If by some miracle they did pick him up, would that really be disastrous for us? An extra 7.5 mill to find a replacement for what he would bring going forward is more then doable.  

Logical, yes but I cant see MB doing it.  

My biggest fear is that we will go 4-4-1 so we can protect Weber, Petry, Ed and Chiarot leaving several forwards exposed. 

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https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-plan-kraken-expansion-draft/

Free Agents List

The Canadiens will have a difficult choice ahead this offseason. With a flat salary cap at $81.5 million, there will be no increase to help cover the cost of the raises some free agents will likely demand. Any free agent, whether they be unrestricted free agents (UFA) or restricted free agents (RFA) with more than two years of North American professional experience, will need to be protected, or they could be open to being claimed in the expansion draft.

Difficult choices on UFAs like Phillip Danault, Joel Armia, Corey Perry, and Tomas Tatar will need to be made — which to retain, which to allow to walk. Three of them played major roles in the Canadiens’ success this season. The RFAs that will need contracts, like Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Artturi Lehkonen, will also need protection and raises.

 

One Major Issue

Bergevin will have his hands full regarding what to do with forward Jonathan Drouin. The supremely skilled yet mercurial left-winger has had issues finding his potential in Montreal. This, in turn, has led to loud and consistently harsh criticism from fans and media alike. For now, Drouin is on the long-term injured list while he works on his personal issues, creating a difficult situation. If they can’t resolve his situation or work out a trade before the draft, it’s almost a guarantee he will be protected, as losing that level of skill for nothing would be a difficult hurdle to overcome.

Side Deal

Like the Vegas Expansion Draft, GMs will have an opportunity to make side deals with Seattle. Bergevin may want to offer some draft picks in return for the Kraken to select a specific player from his roster. That player would still need to hold some value to the new franchise, such as an ability to fill a role or as a future trade asset.

One player that Bergevin could try to use in this manner is Paul Byron. He had been placed on waivers multiple times this past season as part of the team’s cap and roster management — with two more years remaining at $3.4 million, it is no surprise he cleared each time. But Byron does have leadership value, as he is an alternate captain and still plays a major role on the Canadiens’ penalty kill, which has been outstanding during their run to the Stanley Cup Final.

e may not reach the 20-goal plateaus he has with the Habs in the past, but for a short-term addition as a bottom-six player, he could add the intangibles a new franchise may need. So adding a second-round pick might be enough to convince the Kraken.

With that said, now onto what the Canadiens’ 7-3-1 approach can look like.

Goaltender

Protected: Carey Price

Exposed: Jake Allen, Micheal McNiven, Charlie Lindgren

Notable Exemptions: Cayden Primeau

This will be an easy decision for Bergevin. Not only did Price provide outstanding play in the playoffs yet again, but he also holds an NMC. So his five remaining years at $10.5 million will be protected.

Allen was a key regular-season contributor and will be in danger of being lost to Seattle. This may be the biggest concern for the Canadiens, as it took Bergevin several seasons to find a competent backup goaltender capable of playing enough games to allow Price to rest for the playoffs or could fill in for long stretches in case of injury.

Defence

Protected: Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Joel Edmundson

Exposed: Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Cale Fleury

Notable Exemptions: Alexander Romanov, Josh Brook

The protected list for defencemen is difficult to predict. Team captain Shea Weber has no clause to force Bergevin to protect him, and while there had been talk of leaving him and his five remaining years at $7.86 million exposed as fans believe his contract is too rich for Seattle to want to claim, the same fans seem to overlook that this contract is a tradeable commodity. Weber’s salary drops significantly in the last four years, making this contract desirable for teams wanting to remain cap compliant while staying on a strict budget. Also, it is highly unlikely Bergevin doesn’t protect the player he brought in to create and maintain the culture he wants to see in this locker room.

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Personally I would expose Drouin and Weber.  Losing Drouin at this point would be no real big loss IMO has been a flop since we made the deal and only looks worse seeing Sergechev play so well in the SCF.  Would also expose Weber and protect Chairot, Chairot has been huge in our playoff success and with Weber's age and contract it would be doubtful if Seattle takes him anyways.

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12 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

Personally I would expose Drouin and Weber.  Losing Drouin at this point would be no real big loss IMO has been a flop since we made the deal and only looks worse seeing Sergechev play so well in the SCF.  Would also expose Weber and protect Chairot, Chairot has been huge in our playoff success and with Weber's age and contract it would be doubtful if Seattle takes him anyways.

I would easily expose Weber unless there's a way to trade his contract because some poor team wants to boost their cap to the floor and sees it as an asset. Otherwise, it's Petry and Edmundson as 1-2 for protection for me and probably Fleury 3rd. I couldn't care if we lose Chiarot either, he's got a year left on his deal and even though he's been fine in the playoffs, we don't need both him and Edmundson going forward.

I'd still protect Drouin if we think there's a chance he returns next year. If you don't sign Armia/Danault/Tatar, then who are you protecting instead of Drouin as your 7th attacker? Byron? Belzile? There isn't anyone else worth it. With Tatar likely walking, I don't really want to go into next year with Toffoli and Byron as my top two left wingers (unless they make CC a permanent left winger, which I'm not against).

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

I would easily expose Weber unless there's a way to trade his contract because some poor team wants to boost their cap to the floor and sees it as an asset. Otherwise, it's Petry and Edmundson as 1-2 for protection for me and probably Fleury 3rd. I couldn't care if we lose Chiarot either, he's got a year left on his deal and even though he's been fine in the playoffs, we don't need both him and Edmundson going forward.

I'd still protect Drouin if we think there's a chance he returns next year. If you don't sign Armia/Danault/Tatar, then who are you protecting instead of Drouin as your 7th attacker? Byron? Belzile? There isn't anyone else worth it. With Tatar likely walking, I don't really want to go into next year with Toffoli and Byron as my top two left wingers (unless they make CC a permanent left winger, which I'm not against).

With Tatar not playing in the finals I think it's a given he won't re-sign. 

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My guess is that:

- Weber, Petry and Edmondson are protected
- Drouin is not protected (obviously this is hugely based on what he and the team decide)
- Either Allen or Chiarot gets claimed. Outside chance Evans or Lehkonen gets picked

Who we lose really depends what else is out there & if the Kraken think they need the experience of a guy like Chiarot or will have that elsewhere & can take a quality forward like Lekhs or Evans. 

I think there's a slim chance MB will go 4-4-1 to protect his "big 4" but I sure hope not.   

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With the number of picks we have this year and the draft being such  a crap shoot I would like to see us send a second or two to Seattle and have them take Byron.  Clear his over spent cap off the books.  Can't see them taking Drouin but I certainly wouldn't be upset over that either.

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18 hours ago, maas_art said:

My guess is that:

- Weber, Petry and Edmondson are protected
- Drouin is not protected (obviously this is hugely based on what he and the team decide)
- Either Allen or Chiarot gets claimed. Outside chance Evans or Lehkonen gets picked

Who we lose really depends what else is out there & if the Kraken think they need the experience of a guy like Chiarot or will have that elsewhere & can take a quality forward like Lekhs or Evans. 

I think there's a slim chance MB will go 4-4-1 to protect his "big 4" but I sure hope not.   

To lose Drouin for nothing, though... Ugh, that would hurt. Especially watching Sergachev be in a great position to contribute to winning his second Stanley Cup.

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You can only lose one player , correct ? Im guessing MB will make side deals with Seattle

Last time they lost

Montreal Canadiens: Alexei Emelin, D
Many thought Vegas would take 23-year-old winger Charles Hudon, who was regarded as one of Montreal’s most NHL-ready prospects at the time of the expansion draft. But instead they went with Emelin, who was traded to Nashville for a third-round draft pick just days later. Emelin played one season with Nashville before leaving for the KHL’s Omsk Avangard in 2018-19.

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On 7/7/2021 at 9:04 AM, jennifer_rocket said:

To lose Drouin for nothing, though... Ugh, that would hurt. Especially watching Sergachev be in a great position to contribute to winning his second Stanley Cup.

What exactly is Drouin doing for us now??  Would rather lose him for nothing over potentially losing a player like Allen who does add something to the team.  Besides once Drouin is gone that whole cluster **** of a deal can be put to rest.

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5 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

You can only lose one player , correct ? Im guessing MB will make side deals with Seattle

Last time they lost

Montreal Canadiens: Alexei Emelin, D
Many thought Vegas would take 23-year-old winger Charles Hudon, who was regarded as one of Montreal’s most NHL-ready prospects at the time of the expansion draft. But instead they went with Emelin, who was traded to Nashville for a third-round draft pick just days later. Emelin played one season with Nashville before leaving for the KHL’s Omsk Avangard in 2018-19.

You only lose one player, yes.

Im not so sure that there will be as many side deals this time. A lot of the side deals with the VGK actually ended up worse than if they had just lost the player they wanted to keep.

I also dont think we had any sort of side deal in place for them to take Emelin. We didnt give anything else up to the knights.  The Preds obviously contacted them beforehand and told the knights "if you take Emelin, we'll give you x"     which complicates things.  Its entirely possible the Kraken doesnt want a guy like Evans or Chiarot or Allen (or whomever we leave exposed) but a different team does, so they pick that player in order to trade him. All the more reason to go 7-3-1 and protect 11 players rather than 4-4-1 and only protect 9. 

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I think exposing Drouin just makes sense at this point. We still don't know what's really going on but reading between the lines, the pressure of playing in Montreal may well be a factor. If that's truly it, a fresh start could be the best for everyone, which would suck because we would have traded Sergachev for nothing... unless there's a way to include him and e.g. Kotkaniemi in a deal for Eichel of course.

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19 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

I think exposing Drouin just makes sense at this point. We still don't know what's really going on but reading between the lines, the pressure of playing in Montreal may well be a factor. If that's truly it, a fresh start could be the best for everyone, which would suck because we would have traded Sergachev for nothing... unless there's a way to include him and e.g. Kotkaniemi in a deal for Eichel of course.

Yeah, really tough to say. You would think that if there's no updates on him in the next few days, (the deadline to submit your protected lists is fast approaching) then the Kraken likely wouldnt gamble on taking him knowing that he may never play again. If thats the case then there's no real need/ point to protect him & it means we dont have to sign someone like Frolik, just to expose them (which we might have to do to be compliant otherwise). 

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2 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

What exactly is Drouin doing for us now??  Would rather lose him for nothing over potentially losing a player like Allen who does add something to the team.  Besides once Drouin is gone that whole cluster **** of a deal can be put to rest.

I would hate to lose Drouin for nothing of value to the Krakken - he has to be worth some future picks or even some other trade value for a fresh start.  His case has to be severe for missing what would be a pinnacle point in his career of helping the team and Stanley Cup finals. Keeping him on future 2021-22 LTIR just delays the situation. Can anyone even imagine that he's bought out at 4 years of a $1.833M cap hit to save 2 years of $5.5M cap hit and move on from the debacle?

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5 hours ago, claremont said:

I would hate to lose Drouin for nothing of value to the Krakken - he has to be worth some future picks or even some other trade value for a fresh start.  His case has to be severe for missing what would be a pinnacle point in his career of helping the team and Stanley Cup finals. Keeping him on future 2021-22 LTIR just delays the situation. Can anyone even imagine that he's bought out at 4 years of a $1.833M cap hit to save 2 years of $5.5M cap hit and move on from the debacle?

I don't think you can buy out a player on LTIR but you can trade him.

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My current protection list:

- Forwards (7): Kotkaniemi, Evans, Gallagher, Toffoli, Anderson, Lehkonen, Drouin.

- Defence (3): Petry, Edmundson, Fleury

- Goalie (1): Price

 

It leaves exposed

- Danault, Tatar, and Armia (impending UFA's)

- Byron

- Chiarot

- Weber

- Kulak

- Allen

 

I'd peg the odds in this case of their choosing Allen at about 60%, Chiarot 30%, and other at 10%.

After Price's playoffs, I think he would get claimed if we exposed him now, either for Seattle to make him their poster boy star the way Vegas did with Fleury or else to grab him and trade him to another team who thinks he's still their missing piece. I think if we want to move him, we get value for him in a trade right now after how he played. Weber, on the other hand, I see having little value in the ED although he may have value to a limited number of teams as a way to get to the cap floor but not shell out a lot of money. And frankly, I would be happy if someone took Weber's contract off our hands, so it's an easy call to expose him for me.

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22 hours ago, claremont said:

I would hate to lose Drouin for nothing of value to the Krakken - he has to be worth some future picks or even some other trade value for a fresh start.  His case has to be severe for missing what would be a pinnacle point in his career of helping the team and Stanley Cup finals. Keeping him on future 2021-22 LTIR just delays the situation. Can anyone even imagine that he's bought out at 4 years of a $1.833M cap hit to save 2 years of $5.5M cap hit and move on from the debacle?

Given the peculiar nature of his LTIR ... his trade value is probably nill as most teams are going to what some serious assurances he will in fact play.   He miiiight have limited value to a team trying to make the salary floor, but reality is he's untradeable at the moment for all practical purposes.

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We'll find out soon, but based on MB's comments today, he doesn't seem to be putting a lot of stock in Drouin being here in the future. If that's the case, the question becomes who MB values more: Chiarot or the best of Lehkonen, Evans, and UFA Danault? And the more I think about how MB operates, the more I'm thinking he will protect 4 D men. He loves his top 4. We all know it's a deranged school of thought and that he'd have little to lose by exposing Weber, but I think he's going to protect Price, Weber, Petry, Chiarot, Edmundson, Gallagher, Toffoli, Kotkaniemi, and Anderson. I think he'll leave Lehkonen, Byron, Drouin, Evans, Kulak, Fleury, Allen etc exposed. And I think if it comes down to this, the odds we'll see will be roughly:

- Allen 40%

- Lehkonen 30%

- Evans 25%

- Drouin 5%

 

They might be tempted by Drouin, but it's a risky gamble for Seattle to end up with nothing. Allen is the safe choice, but it depends on their strategy in goal and if they see another guy as being their go-to #1, they may want a cheaper back-up. They've also made it clear they want cheaper, cost-controlled contracts with leverage to move on quickly and free up cap space. So Evans could be a great fit for them there, while Lehkonen should be cheap enough and impressed in the playoffs.

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