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Habs Magic Number 2021 - Countdown to the Playoffs


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So with Habs up to 57 points...

- Calgary would need to go 5-1 to tie us in points (and they would likely win the tie-break at that point).

- Vancouver would need to go 8-3 to tie us in points (and would have trouble catching us in the tie-break unless those were all regulation wins)

Both tall orders.

As far as 3rd place goes, Habs now tied with Wpg for points but 1 behind in regulation wins. 2nd tie-break is regulation + OT wins and we're 4 behind Winnipeg there. So pretty much need to outright pass them in points or else have to outright win the first tie-break because we're losing the 2nd tie-break regardless. To outright win the first tie-break we'd have to win at least two more regulation games and have Wpg win no more regulation games. If that happens, we're probably just outright passing them in points. So I think it's likely just a need to finish with more points in our last 5 than the Jets get in their last 5 to take 3rd place.

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Yes, ladies and gents, we're not only in single digits but we're halfway to 0 already.  The magic number is indeed 5!  Funny how quickly it falls when we win our games, eh?

A win for Edmonton over Vancouver tonight would bring us down to 3, but it would also mean that the Canucks would fall into a tie with Calgary at 26.5 losses.  Once we reach that point, we'll need both Vancouver and Calgary to lose a game before we pick up any bonus points.

All of this to say, I think the earliest that we can get it to 0 is after Thursday's game against the Leafs.  In order to do that we need to take at least one of our games against Ottawa or Toronto and hope the Canucks and Flames lose.  If we win both of those games, the chances of us hitting 0 on Thursday go way, way up.
 

  GP GR PTS NL
Toronto Maple Leafs 52 4 72 16
Edmonton Oilers 50 6 64 18
Winnipeg Jets 51 5 57 22.5
Montréal Canadiens 51 5 57 22.5
         
Vancouver Canucks 46 10 41 25.5
Calgary Flames 50 6 47 26.5
Ottawa Senators 52 4 45 29.5
         
         
      MN 5
      Pace 2.12
      MN Home Ice 11
      MN Division 24

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Flying_Lion said:

This should get bumped soon. :5187:

Thanks, Manatee. 

 

16 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Welcome back FL. It's been awhile.

And yes, welcome back! :)

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6 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Vancouver lost 4-1 so now MN is 3 correct?!

Yes!

Flames maximum number of points now is 59. Canucks maximum also 59. Habs currently sitting at 57, so need to get to 60 to clear both teams.

At present, even if we lose all our games, Flames would need to go 5-1 to catch us and Canucks would need to go 8-1 to catch us. If we win tonight, any loss of any type (regulation/OT/SO) would eliminate the Flames or Canucks. So technically, we can clinch a spot as early as tomorrow night.

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Winning the game tonight would be huge, not having a great gut feeling though. We didn’t really look good against them so far...

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We're now in a double bubble team situation where both the Flames and Canucks need to lose a game to get bonus points. Flames and Jets tonight however is a game where some of us would prefer to see the Flames win, if the hope is to overtake the Jets. 

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

We're now in a double bubble team situation where both the Flames and Canucks need to lose a game to get bonus points. Flames and Jets tonight however is a game where some of us would prefer to see the Flames win, if the hope is to overtake the Jets. 

Hard to imagine the Jets going into such a funk - the toughest thing in sports IMO is to finally knock out your opponent, but I think Winnipeg pulls it off tonight and lays out the Flames. Given that Lucic just waived his NMC now vs. waiting, just seems to be a sign that they are mailing it in. Winnipeg does have the easier schedule playing Vancouver twice and the pesky Sens. I'm just hoping the Habs can finish on an upswing. We do have 2 extra days of rest finishing our season before the Laffs. 

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

We're now in a double bubble team situation where both the Flames and Canucks need to lose a game to get bonus points. Flames and Jets tonight however is a game where some of us would prefer to see the Flames win, if the hope is to overtake the Jets. 

Absolutely pulling for the Flames.

If we win tonight, Cal or Van would have to go perfect the rest of the year AND we'd have to garner no further points the rest of the way too. Odds of that are so slim that at this point, focus should be on catching Winnipeg, not watching the rear-view mirror.

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4 minutes ago, claremont said:

Hard to imagine the Jets going into such a funk - the toughest thing in sports IMO is to finally knock out your opponent, but I think Winnipeg pulls it off tonight and lays out the Flames. Given that Lucic just waived his NMC now vs. waiting, just seems to be a sign that they are mailing it in. Winnipeg does have the easier schedule playing Vancouver twice and the pesky Sens. I'm just hoping the Habs can finish on an upswing. We do have 2 extra days of rest finishing our season before the Laffs. 

But also possible the Oilers are locked into the 2 seed by the time we play them and start resting players.

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Absolutely pulling for the Flames.

If we win tonight, Cal or Van would have to go perfect the rest of the year AND we'd have to garner no further points the rest of the way too. Odds of that are so slim that at this point, focus should be on catching Winnipeg, not watching the rear-view mirror.

I'm with you there.  I'm not too worried about bonus points right now.  I mean, realistically, we could lose every game for the rest of the year and would probably still make it in.  I'm all for passing the Jets and going in to the playoffs with as much momentum as we can get.

 

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10 minutes ago, Manatee-X said:

 I'm all for passing the Jets and going in to the playoffs with as much momentum as we can get.

 

Momentum is the key for me. I think you want to go into the playoffs with confidence and the sense you can beat anyone.


That said, I kind of would prefer to draw the leafs in the first round.  I am pretty sure they beat Winnipeg if they get that matchup & then they go into the second round with confidence. I think we can beat them - in any round - but the fact they havent won a playoff round in 16 years has to play on their minds a little. 

 

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10 hours ago, H_T_L said:

We're now in a double bubble team situation where both the Flames and Canucks need to lose a game to get bonus points. Flames and Jets tonight however is a game where some of us would prefer to see the Flames win, if the hope is to overtake the Jets. 

We have that hope. 

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5 hours ago, maas_art said:

Momentum is the key for me. I think you want to go into the playoffs with confidence and the sense you can beat anyone.


That said, I kind of would prefer to draw the leafs in the first round.  I am pretty sure they beat Winnipeg if they get that matchup & then they go into the second round with confidence. I think we can beat them - in any round - but the fact they havent won a playoff round in 16 years has to play on their minds a little. 

 

When was the last time we won a playoff round?

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3 minutes ago, electron58 said:

When was the last time we won a playoff round?

Well its not as dire as Toronto, but fair point. If you count the play-in we won last year but technically we lost in the "first round"  

The last time we won a "real" playoff round was 6 years ago (we lost in the Semis) the year before that we won 2 rounds (lost in Conference final) and we did that a few years before that too.

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4 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Well its not as dire as Toronto, but fair point. If you count the play-in we won last year but technically we lost in the "first round"  

The last time we won a "real" playoff round was 6 years ago (we lost in the Semis) the year before that we won 2 rounds (lost in Conference final) and we did that a few years before that too.

Sure seems longer.:(  But, Thanks for that.

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Didn't help ourselves last night but Calgary has put themselves on the edge, losing to the Jets. Any loss or OT loss by them, OR a single point by us, does the trick. If Vancouver loses tonight and we get a single point vs the Leafs, we're in the playoffs.

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6 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Didn't help ourselves last night but Calgary has put themselves on the edge, losing to the Jets. Any loss or OT loss by them, OR a single point by us, does the trick. If Vancouver loses tonight and we get a single point vs the Leafs, we're in the playoffs.

Couldn't have put it better myself :)

Let's finish this off with a win tonight.  And hey, on the bright side, at least we won't have to face Ottawa in the post-season :wacko:

 

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1 hour ago, Manatee-X said:

Couldn't have put it better myself :)

Let's finish this off with a win tonight.  And hey, on the bright side, at least we won't have to face Ottawa in the post-season :wacko:

 

Or Detroit if we get out of the North.:lol:

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