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Poll: Who would you rather face in Round 3?


Round 3  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Which team do we want next?


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23 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I don't think it's a mirage in that the team played well down the stretch against Toronto and certainly against Winnipeg. Did we play in a weaker division? Probably. Did we benefit from Tavares and Scheifele being out? Yes. Would we win those two series against those same teams if we had to play them over? Maybe not. We probably could have been eliminated in 5 games against Toronto as easily as we won that series. Even really great teams probably only win 60-70% of games and series that they play in and anything is possible. Winning a Cup requires a balance of skill and a well-built roster but it also requires luck and timing. These guys worked hard and you have role players like Evans, Lehkonen, Edmundson, Chiarot, Staal, Perry, Armia, etc. who played about as well as you could expect them to play, along with more skilled guys like Price and Suzuki and Kotkaniemi and Toffoli who elevated their games when needed. I'd peg our chances of winning the next series at about 40% but anything can happen and I certainly think we've put in a full effort every night. This team is capable of playing well and getting results, especially when Carey is on, so I don't think it's a fluke, I think it's just nice that all the parts of the machine have showed up to play well at the same time. It's a nice change from the inconsistency we've seen over recent years.

100%  agree with everything in this post. 

And i think 40/60 is probably fair for this series.  I liked our chances against Toronto, I really liked our chances against Winnipeg but Im cautiously optimistic for round 3. 

Petry playing (and at what percentage) is a huge factor too because i think our top 4 playing lots (with sub-in rotations by the other 2 dman) will be severely effected if one of the best of those 4 is out for any length of time. 

 

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17 minutes ago, maas_art said:

100%  agree with everything in this post. 

And i think 40/60 is probably fair for this series.  I liked our chances against Toronto, I really liked our chances against Winnipeg but Im cautiously optimistic for round 3. 

Petry playing (and at what percentage) is a huge factor too because i think our top 4 playing lots (with sub-in rotations by the other 2 dman) will be severely effected if one of the best of those 4 is out for any length of time. 

 

I picked Toronto to win the first series and I think they might well have had Tavares not been hurt. But just picking Toronto doesn't mean I thought Montreal had no chance, it just means I thought Toronto had a better chance (I would have put it at 55-45 in favor of Toronto). I actually picked Montreal to top Toronto in the regular season standings before the year, so I did think this roster could compete with the Leafs. But going into the playoffs, we simply didn't have any recent inclination Carey would be able to turn it on as well as he did or that the team would get so many guys elevating their play. I think it was reasonable, however, to believe the Habs would play better than their regular season record indicated given that our team largely relies on older veterans and that the schedule was grueling in the second half. All that said, Toronto was clearly the favorite and we needed things to go right to win. I thought we would win one of the first two games coming out of the break fresh but that we'd struggle to keep up our legs as the series went on and again, I think Carey and a couple of others surprised with how they managed to do that.

With Winnipeg, I would have put the Habs at 55-45 to win that series. I thought we would lose Game 1 coming off a long series against a rival but that we would rebound and win in 5 or 6 games. I liked the way we were playing in general, Carey was hot, we had good contribution from depth players, and Winnipeg's D was simply very suspect. Again, Demelo and Scheifele going out helped, but I wasn't shocked to see us beat Winnipeg.

With the next series, we're going to go in as clear underdogs. It'll be a tougher series than either of the first two for us to win, and those two teams were 1-2 in the league despite the fact they had to play each other 7-8 times in the season (thus dampening each others' records). If you hold me to a prediction, I'm likely going to say the other team will win the series. But again, for me to say Vegas in 6 or Colorado in 7 or whatever it is, all that means is that I think that's the most probably scenario, recognizing that of course, other scenarios can happen too. With Colorado, what can be exploited is that their core, their D, their goalie, and their coach really don't have experience going on deep playoff runs. So it's always possible the stress or expectations could get to them, and Bednar already called out his team once in the current series. It's a series where maybe the Avs would go in fatigued having had to win in 7 games and you can take advantage of your freshness in Game 1, surprise them, and then cast doubt in their heads.

With Vegas, I think it'll be tougher. There's a group of veterans there who have won Cups and been deep on playoff runs. They've had two tough series already and they've been mentally strong getting through them. So I think the mental aspect will be harder to win there. Where can we exploit them though? Well we know Fleury played behind some strong Pittsburgh teams and we've always seemed to have his number in the playoffs. I recall his giving up several really weak goals to us and then just losing his concentration completely, so he could go from being a strong link to a weak link for them, and it wouldn't be hard to cause a goaltending controversy in Vegas if Fleury plays badly for a game or two. Like us, they also have some older core players, so maybe there could be an element of fatigue after two long series to get to the semis. And their PP hasn't been very effective, even though they had the 31 PK in the league. So there are still some things to exploit there and just as getting first goals in games for us has been important, I think if we can win 2 of the first 3 games in the series, it'll put doubt in their heads as to whether we're really as bad as everyone in the media thinks...

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39 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I picked Toronto to win the first series and I think they might well have had Tavares not been hurt. But just picking Toronto doesn't mean I thought Montreal had no chance, it just means I thought Toronto had a better chance (I would have put it at 55-45 in favor of Toronto). I actually picked Montreal to top Toronto in the regular season standings before the year, so I did think this roster could compete with the Leafs. But going into the playoffs, we simply didn't have any recent inclination Carey would be able to turn it on as well as he did or that the team would get so many guys elevating their play. I think it was reasonable, however, to believe the Habs would play better than their regular season record indicated given that our team largely relies on older veterans and that the schedule was grueling in the second half. All that said, Toronto was clearly the favorite and we needed things to go right to win. I thought we would win one of the first two games coming out of the break fresh but that we'd struggle to keep up our legs as the series went on and again, I think Carey and a couple of others surprised with how they managed to do that.

I thought it was 50-50 (I picked the habs in 6 or 7) - i think we could have still beat them with Tavares but I dont think we could have come back from 3-1 with him, I think that we would have needed at split (at least) of the first 4.  I think they squandered at least 1 of those 3 loses.  But they righted the ship so in the end, all good.

40 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

With Winnipeg, I would have put the Habs at 55-45 to win that series. I thought we would lose Game 1 coming off a long series against a rival but that we would rebound and win in 5 or 6 games. I liked the way we were playing in general, Carey was hot, we had good contribution from depth players, and Winnipeg's D was simply very suspect. Again, Demelo and Scheifele going out helped, but I wasn't shocked to see us beat Winnipeg.

I picked us in 6 again and i think the loss of Demelo & Scheifele are what took it down to 4.  I am sure that if they had both been in, we would have had a tougher time but i still think we would have won. 

41 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

With the next series, we're going to go in as clear underdogs. It'll be a tougher series than either of the first two for us to win, and those two teams were 1-2 in the league despite the fact they had to play each other 7-8 times in the season (thus dampening each others' records). If you hold me to a prediction, I'm likely going to say the other team will win the series. But again, for me to say Vegas in 6 or Colorado in 7 or whatever it is, all that means is that I think that's the most probably scenario, recognizing that of course, other scenarios can happen too. With Colorado, what can be exploited is that their core, their D, their goalie, and their coach really don't have experience going on deep playoff runs. So it's always possible the stress or expectations could get to them, and Bednar already called out his team once in the current series. It's a series where maybe the Avs would go in fatigued having had to win in 7 games and you can take advantage of your freshness in Game 1, surprise them, and then cast doubt in their heads.

With Vegas, I think it'll be tougher. There's a group of veterans there who have won Cups and been deep on playoff runs. They've had two tough series already and they've been mentally strong getting through them. So I think the mental aspect will be harder to win there. Where can we exploit them though? Well we know Fleury played behind some strong Pittsburgh teams and we've always seemed to have his number in the playoffs. I recall his giving up several really weak goals to us and then just losing his concentration completely, so he could go from being a strong link to a weak link for them, and it wouldn't be hard to cause a goaltending controversy in Vegas if Fleury plays badly for a game or two. Like us, they also have some older core players, so maybe there could be an element of fatigue after two long series to get to the semis. And their PP hasn't been very effective, even though they had the 31 PK in the league. So there are still some things to exploit there and just as getting first goals in games for us has been important, I think if we can win 2 of the first 3 games in the series, it'll put doubt in their heads as to whether we're really as bad as everyone in the media thinks...

Agree on all points.   The rest for us is great (especially if it means they have more time to see what they are dealing with with Petry once the swelling goes down) maybe Evans draws back in, heck maybe Drouin comes back (doubt that one) but it also means we might lose momentum.  I sure hope that LV and COL beat up on each other in the(se) last game(s).

I think we have a shot against either & even though i agree with your 40%/60% odds, Im still picking us in 7. Lol.   

If we somehow pull off the win, I think destiny has taken over and the SC is ours.    That said, Id rather face the Isles (or bruins) than the Lightning!



 

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