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2021-22 State of the Habs


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56 minutes ago, claremont said:

I question whether they really saw enough of Norlinder or Niku prior to their injuries. You would think that Norlinder's development would be enhanced by going back to Frolunda. Perhaps they just don't want to rush that decision and give both of them some more feedback from practices or a couple of games trial. As soon as Edmundson returns, and if Wideman continues to perform adequately like he seems to have done, I would think that Norlinder and Niku don't make the roster unless there are injuries.   

I agree re: Norlinder. I think he's headed back to Europe. But I don't know if they can demote him while injured. I expect he won't be here this season.

As for Niku, I think the jury's still out on him. On paper, he's more valuable than Wideman, so the question comes down to whether Wideman adds value during the first few games. In reality, the Habs will carry 7 D men, so after Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see Poehling and/or Belzile demoted and Niku reactivated if healthy. Until Edmundson is ready to return (which appears to be a few weeks away according to Ducharme), then there isn't a need to make a decision between Niku and Wideman If one plays terribly, they may get demoted when Edmundson is ready. If they both play well, the Habs could shelter 8 D men on the roster for a while and demote forwards to make space. Poehling, again, is waiver-exempt, and Belzile has almost zero value. The bigger question for me is whether Wideman or Niku uses the first few weeks to establish themselves as a 3rd-pairing RHD and 2nd PP wave QB. That's where the value is. If one of them does that, I wholly expect Kulak or Romanov as a lefty to be the one who to sit once Ed is ready, so we'd have Kulak and Romanov rotating as the 3rd LHD and Niku and Wideman rotating as the 3rd RHD.

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Montreal Canadiens begin the season using LTIR to remain compliant
Cap Hit: $91,951,370
LTIR: Carey Price ($10.5M LTIR relief while on the Player Assistance Program)
ACSL: $81,451,370
Roster Size: 23 (15F - 6D - 2G)

MONTREAL CANADIENS

Montreal Canadiens
PROJECTED CAP HIT Tooltip : $91,951,370
PROJECTED LTIR USED Tooltip : $10,451,370
PROJECTED CAP SPACE Tooltip : $0 ($0 Tooltip)
CURRENT CAP SPACE Tooltip : $0
DEADLINE CAP SPACE Tooltip : $0
TODAYS CAP HIT Tooltip : $91,951,370
ROSTER SIZE: 23/23
CONTRACTS: 48/50
RESERVE LIST: 72/90
INJURIES: 5
GENERAL MANAGER: Marc Bergevin
HEAD COACH: Dominique Ducharme
 

LTIR Summary

ACSL: $81,451,370
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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

Hey, Engels is picking us to make the POs, so, there's that. :ph34r:

I think he's almost contractually obligated to say that

this team... I don't know this doesn't make sense but I think I'm going to be happy with this year cause I feel like we will really surprise people OR we will fail miserably and get a good draft pick. 

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56 minutes ago, habsisme said:

this team... I don't know this doesn't make sense but I think I'm going to be happy with this year cause I feel like we will really surprise people OR we will fail miserably and get a good draft pick. 

win:win

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7 hours ago, habsisme said:

I think he's almost contractually obligated to say that

this team... I don't know this doesn't make sense but I think I'm going to be happy with this year cause I feel like we will really surprise people OR we will fail miserably and get a good draft pick. 

Except not so fast, because we owe a 1st rounder to the Coyotes... so if Carolina makes the playoffs and we end up missing the playoffs and getting the 15th overall pick, for example, then Arizona gets that pick from us and we end up with only the Canes' pick.

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58 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Except not so fast, because we owe a 1st rounder to the Coyotes... so if Carolina makes the playoffs and we end up missing the playoffs and getting the 15th overall pick, for example, then Arizona gets that pick from us and we end up with only the Canes' pick.

That would be awkward. & in Montréal.

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1 hour ago, HabsRuleForever said:

Poehling sent to Laval.

 

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Expected. Surprised Belzile didn't go too. They both had terrible camps.

I didnt watch much of the preseason but from what i saw / heard Poehling wasnt horrific but just didnt do much to push the needle.  A shame since there was clearly a spot for him.   

Right now, today, it sounds like Brooks may be better then him for this moment but that doesnt bode well for us long-term. 

9 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Doesn't have Weber on IR also help make us cap compliant?

Yes. LTIR works a little differently than what most people think though - it doesnt remove the $ from the cap - but it does allow a team to go over the cap.

So for example, if you had a player who made $10m for the year and he was injured for 1/2 of it, you couldn't just sign a guy who made $5m for the season. When the $10m guy came back, you would have to get rid of salary.

In Weber's case it sounds like its not even a possibility he'll be back this season so theoretically we should be able to use his full cap hit. 

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Except not so fast, because we owe a 1st rounder to the Coyotes... so if Carolina makes the playoffs and we end up missing the playoffs and getting the 15th overall pick, for example, then Arizona gets that pick from us and we end up with only the Canes' pick.

no i mean like a top 5 pick, I wouldn't be excited over 15 anyway

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13 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Doesn't have Weber on IR also help make us cap compliant?

 

3 minutes ago, maas_art said:

 

I didnt watch much of the preseason but from what i saw / heard Poehling wasnt horrific but just didnt do much to push the needle.  A shame since there was clearly a spot for him.   

Right now, today, it sounds like Brooks may be better then him for this moment but that doesnt bode well for us long-term. 

Yes. LTIR works a little differently than what most people think though - it doesnt remove the $ from the cap - but it does allow a team to go over the cap.

So for example, if you had a player who made $10m for the year and he was injured for 1/2 of it, you couldn't just sign a guy who made $5m for the season. When the $10m guy came back, you would have to get rid of salary.

In Weber's case it sounds like its not even a possibility he'll be back this season so theoretically we should be able to use his full cap hit. 

1. Poehling was very average. He wasn't overly involved and he didn't create much offensively. Overall, he just didn't look like he wanted it very much. There was no extra effort, there was no sense of urgency or motivation in his game. Maybe he was just nervous, but there wasn't anything that told the Habs they had to keep him. He was also waiver-exempt, so it was an easy decision to send him down rather than have to put another player on waivers. The only saving grace for Poehling is that he'll be the 1C in Laval and get to play with Ylonen again, and those two had success last year. So there will be opportunity to dominate at the AHL level again and warrant a chance when his confidence is higher. Based on Jake Evans' unfortunate injury history, I suspect there will be an opportunity for Poehling to get into the top 9 at some point with us during the season, so he'll have to seize that. Brooks and Paquette don't appear to be top 9 material, so Poehling has an edge there by having more offensive upside.

2. For LTIR, the other point I'll add based on my understanding is that you can only use the overage you create at the time you place the player on LTIR. That's why the Habs built their roster such that on day 1 of the season (yesterday) they were as tight as possible to the cap. By doing that, it maximizes the amount of relief they get. If they had been, say 5M under the cap at the time they placed Weber's 7.8M on LTIR, then they would only be allowed to go over by 2.8M. The way they did it, they can use Weber's full 7.8M just about.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

no i mean like a top 5 pick, I wouldn't be excited over 15 anyway

Their better pick is top-10 protected, so that could work, otherwise it goes to Arizona. So you're right in that regard. Just pointing out that there is a viable scenario (and some might argue the most likely scenario) where we finish out of the playoffs but don't end up with a lottery pick of any sort. Carolina is projected in most models to make the playoffs and be one of the better teams in the league, albeit they're playing in a deep division so a stumble along the way could put them out. Conversely, Montreal in most models is ranked somewhere in the 18-24 range, which puts us precisely in that range of ending up with a pick in the 9-15 range. That's worst-case scenario for us. If we end up with our own choice being 11-16 and Carolina makes the playoffs, we're getting only their choice and losing the 11-16 pick to Arizona.

Best-case scenario for us is that Carolina misses the playoffs. In that case, we either miss too and end up with two lottery choices (so are guaranteed to keep one) or we make the playoffs and then lose out on an 11-16 pick at Carolina's expense or keep Carolina's top 10 pick and lose our own non-lottery pick. Definitely cheering for the Canes to have a bad year, otherwise the trade-off of Kotkaniemi-for-Dvorak looks worse when you figure in the picks gained and lost.

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2 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Their better pick is top-10 protected, so that could work, otherwise it goes to Arizona. So you're right in that regard. Just pointing out that there is a viable scenario (and some might argue the most likely scenario) where we finish out of the playoffs but don't end up with a lottery pick of any sort. Carolina is projected in most models to make the playoffs and be one of the better teams in the league, albeit they're playing in a deep division so a stumble along the way could put them out. Conversely, Montreal in most models is ranked somewhere in the 18-24 range, which puts us precisely in that range of ending up with a pick in the 9-15 range. That's worst-case scenario for us. If we end up with our own choice being 11-16 and Carolina makes the playoffs, we're getting only their choice and losing the 11-16 pick to Arizona.

Best-case scenario for us is that Carolina misses the playoffs. In that case, we either miss too and end up with two lottery choices (so are guaranteed to keep one) or we make the playoffs and then lose out on an 11-16 pick at Carolina's expense or keep Carolina's top 10 pick and lose our own non-lottery pick. Definitely cheering for the Canes to have a bad year, otherwise the trade-off of Kotkaniemi-for-Dvorak looks worse when you figure in the picks gained and lost.

Yeah depending how the picks shake out it could end up being a significant benefit or cost. At least though the worst can't happen. If its a top 10 pick the better one will be ours. So that mitigates things significantly for me. Worst case scenario is we pick 11 and they pick 32. That would still be quite a drop

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40 minutes ago, maas_art said:

 

I didnt watch much of the preseason but from what i saw / heard Poehling wasnt horrific but just didnt do much to push the needle.  A shame since there was clearly a spot for him.   

Right now, today, it sounds like Brooks may be better then him for this moment but that doesnt bode well for us long-term. 

Yes. LTIR works a little differently than what most people think though - it doesnt remove the $ from the cap - but it does allow a team to go over the cap.

So for example, if you had a player who made $10m for the year and he was injured for 1/2 of it, you couldn't just sign a guy who made $5m for the season. When the $10m guy came back, you would have to get rid of salary.

In Weber's case it sounds like its not even a possibility he'll be back this season so theoretically we should be able to use his full cap hit. 

Back for the playoffs !

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

Yeah depending how the picks shake out it could end up being a significant benefit or cost. At least though the worst can't happen. If its a top 10 pick the better one will be ours. So that mitigates things significantly for me. Worst case scenario is we pick 11 and they pick 32. That would still be quite a drop

11 to 32 would be the biggest drop for us.

The other worst-case scenario, though, would be if Mtl and Car both end up being lottery teams and grab 1-2 in the draft. That means we could potentially have lost the #2 overall pick for Dvorak, which would be a disaster as well (albeit softened by having the #1 overall choice).

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

11 to 32 would be the biggest drop for us.

The other worst-case scenario, though, would be if Mtl and Car both end up being lottery teams and grab 1-2 in the draft. That means we could potentially have lost the #2 overall pick for Dvorak, which would be a disaster as well (albeit softened by having the #1 overall choice).

I don't see it that way. We started with one pick and ended with one pick. We would have never traded for Dvorak had we not had the extra first. If we end up with a top 10 pick, regardless where they other pick is, we win

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https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2021/10/14/22725626/canadiens-need-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-their-third-line-brendan-gallagher-jake-evans-joel-armia

It’s early days, but the Canadiens need to keep a close eye on their third line

An abysmal night statistically in Toronto represents a major anomaly in Brendan Gallagher’s resume.

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5 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2021/10/14/22725626/canadiens-need-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-their-third-line-brendan-gallagher-jake-evans-joel-armia

It’s early days, but the Canadiens need to keep a close eye on their third line

An abysmal night statistically in Toronto represents a major anomaly in Brendan Gallagher’s resume.

It's an interesting experiment because you could look at as A) you don't want to squander Gallagher's ability or B ) use this as an advantage to run over other teams 3rd line and capitalize on mismatches. One game in, I'm not sure what will happen.

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16 minutes ago, seth505 said:

It's an interesting experiment because you could look at as A) you don't want to squander Gallagher's ability or B ) use this as an advantage to run over other teams 3rd line and capitalize on mismatches. One game in, I'm not sure what will happen.

Im still a little worried about the idea of Evans as our 3rd line centre.  I think he can be a competent checking centre but you're ask him to centre Gallagher (and soon Hoffman too).  I have no doubt a line like Lehks - Evans - Armia would be phenomenal as your 4th.  And I think  Hoffman ______  Gallagher would be an excellent 3rd scoring line... but as of right now I am not convinced we have the right centre for that line. If only Poehling had made some noise.   

I know Brooks will get a shot tonight (although on the 3rd line).  He's had some offensive success over the years so maybe he can take on a bigger role with us.

Solve the 3rd line centre and 2nd pairing D issues and i think we'll do ok this year. 

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32 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Im still a little worried about the idea of Evans as our 3rd line centre.  I think he can be a competent checking centre but you're ask him to centre Gallagher (and soon Hoffman too).  I have no doubt a line like Lehks - Evans - Armia would be phenomenal as your 4th.  And I think  Hoffman ______  Gallagher would be an excellent 3rd scoring line... but as of right now I am not convinced we have the right centre for that line. If only Poehling had made some noise.   

I know Brooks will get a shot tonight (although on the 3rd line).  He's had some offensive success over the years so maybe he can take on a bigger role with us.

Solve the 3rd line centre and 2nd pairing D issues and i think we'll do ok this year. 

Evans looked pretty good last night not worried about giving him a good look.

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6 hours ago, Regis22 said:

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2021/10/14/22725626/canadiens-need-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-their-third-line-brendan-gallagher-jake-evans-joel-armia

It’s early days, but the Canadiens need to keep a close eye on their third line

An abysmal night statistically in Toronto represents a major anomaly in Brendan Gallagher’s resume.

The problem is, it's been a real long time since it hasn't. 

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

Im still a little worried about the idea of Evans as our 3rd line centre.  I think he can be a competent checking centre but you're ask him to centre Gallagher (and soon Hoffman too).  I have no doubt a line like Lehks - Evans - Armia would be phenomenal as your 4th.  And I think  Hoffman ______  Gallagher would be an excellent 3rd scoring line... but as of right now I am not convinced we have the right centre for that line. If only Poehling had made some noise.   

I know Brooks will get a shot tonight (although on the 3rd line).  He's had some offensive success over the years so maybe he can take on a bigger role with us.

Solve the 3rd line centre and 2nd pairing D issues and i think we'll do ok this year. 

I'm not worried about Evans. He wasn't the problem with that line. Both Armia & Gallagher were off their games, and Gallagher has been off, for a real long time.

Unfortunately,  I don't see Brooks out there.  It's painful watching Paquette & Perreault out there.

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It's only 4 periods into the season, but when you look at the roster MB has built, other than the worrisomely slow D corps, the other thing that stands out is how poorly the French-Quebecer additions have played. Last year, we had Drouin and we had Danault, and both those guys clearly belonged here and were key members of the team. But after that one game where we had no French players and Bergevin got raked by the Francophone media, he clearly went out of his way to add French players this year. Thus far, Paquette looks invisible, Perreault looks like he doesn't belong in the NHL any longer, Savard looks slow and overrated, and Montembeault looks like an AHL player. Would three of these players be on another roster in the league and would Savard be worth this same contract elsewhere? It really looks like MB forced these moves for political reasons rather than as hockey decisions, just as he has with his coaching choices in the past. And here we're seeing the effect of trying to pansy to language critics ahead of the on-ice product.

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