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2021-22 State of the Habs


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7 hours ago, electron58 said:


 

If Playoffs started today, Teams in black bold, are in @ present.

Tough to figure out, who Boston & NYI will displace, once they play a few more games. And Pittsburg?

So, we're 7 points back of Columbus, who have 4 games in hand.

We're 1-2-1 on this present homestand.

We are 31st.  out of 32 teams.

I know.  I know.  It's still early. yada. yada.  So.  When do we start to worry?!?

Depends what you're worrying about. I didn't think this team would make the playoffs, so I expected them to not be in a favorable spot in the standings based on their roster composition. With that in mind, I would almost say we're "better off" than I thought we would be, because I figured we'd be ranked a little higher, thus having a worse draft pick while still missing the playoffs. If we really finish down the standings then at least we get compensation for our bad season.

As far as playoff odds go, sportsclubstats has us at a 1% chance of making the post-season now. We'd have to go 43-25 (.632 winning percentage, or a 104-point pace over an entire season) the rest of the way just to have a better than 50% chance of making the post-season. To put that in perspective, the last time the Habs had that good a record was 2014-15, when they finished 2nd overall in the league. So not holding my breathe about that happening. Until the defence composition/philosophy is changed and until the center line is deepened, I don't think we're going anywhere, and seeing the D make-up change likely requires a change at GM.

So my only worry now is whether Geoff Molson finally wakes up and fires Bergevin.

 

 

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7 hours ago, electron58 said:

I know.  I know.  It's still early. yada. yada.  So.  When do we start to worry?!?

Nothing to worry about . Buckle your seat belt and enjoy the ride . Look at the last five years . Three they didn’t make the playoffs . One they made it because of the added bye in round and they beat Pittsburgh in a short series , and last year although they went to the finals they had the worst record of all teams that qualified.  This year back to a regular schedule and key players gone , I didn’t expect them to make the playoffs but then I didn’t expect it to be this baD . It is what it is . The team needs help in pretty much all areas  except wing . 

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If we look at MB's key off-season additions, interesting to note that the worst 4 players on the Habs by advanced stats are (starting from worst) Perreault, Hoffman, Savard, and Dvorak. Every single one of them has been weak as far as possession. That said, conversely, our top 6 are (starting from best) Pezzetta, Belzile, Lehkonen, Wideman, Brooks, and Paquette. Niku also has pretty good advanced stats, with a high expected goals for %.

So what does all this mean? The 4th line seems to be holding their own and playing reasonably well, and the 3rd-pairing puck-moving D men are also doing their jobs. But the big problems remain a failure of the top 9 forwards and top 4 D men to do anything, and given that they play 80-90% of the game, this means the end results haven't been favorable.

If we look at the Big 4 flops in terms of acquisitions though, the trends were there to see before we signed any of them:

- Hoffman has been a negative possession player in 4 of the last 6 seasons, and his best result was a 50.37% Corsi, so just barely positive. His value is on the PP, where he's been decent but where the team as a whole has struggled, and Hoffman is hurting us at even strength. It suggests he's probably a player who should be playing lower down the line line-up with less minutes at ES and more exclusively big minutes on the PP.

- Perreault conversely has been a positive possession player most of his career, but his numbers dropped 3 years ago and then his last two years with Winnipeg were negative, including last year in the weak North division. The writing has been on the wall that his level of play has fallen off progressively over the past few years as he's aged.

- Dvorak, as I went over when we traded for him, was a negative possession player in 4 of his 5 years in Arizona, and his only positive year was barely over 50% like Hoffman. So once again, no surprise that he's being dominated here in Montreal. As I've said, he's a middle 6 center probably best-suited to being a 3C and certainly not worth a 1st and 2nd round pick. His production has been lower than predicted, but his overall play is largely concordant with what we would have projected from his career to date. I've been largely disappointed with his lack of engagement on the ice as well.

- Savard is probably the worst addition of the bunch, having signed a 4-year deal. MB claimed he's a perfect replacement for Weber, but Weber was a much better offensive weapon, a more intimidating hitter, and a better possession player. Savard has been a negative possession player in 8 of his 9 seasons in the NHL. We've seen him frequently caught out of position here and slow on his feet, and this is largely what his advanced stats show in the past. He's a guy who gets hemmed in a lot, so no surprise. He's very clearly a 3rd-pairing D man (and not a great one at that) and he's been outplayed by every other D man on the team so far this year.

So yeah, Niku and Wideman and Brooks have had better success, but for the most part, the "big" additions MB made have flopped. Keep in mind that Hoffman, Dvorak, Perreault, and Savard were also brought in to more or less replace in order Tatar, Danault, Kotkaniemi, and Weber, and those 4 guys have been strong possession players most of their careers. So we've gone from giving big minutes to guys who possess the puck to giving big minutes to guys who spend most of their night chasing it. Not surprising to see the change in outcomes of games. You don't have the puck, you don't score as much. You don't have the puck, you spend more time defending and giving up chances, and you spend more time wearing yourself down and taking penalties. Not that hard to understand.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

If we look at MB's key off-season additions, interesting to note that the worst 4 players on the Habs by advanced stats are (starting from worst) Perreault, Hoffman, Savard, and Dvorak. Every single one of them has been weak as far as possession. That said, conversely, our top 6 are (starting from best) Pezzetta, Belzile, Lehkonen, Wideman, Brooks, and Paquette. Niku also has pretty good advanced stats, with a high expected goals for %.

So what does all this mean? The 4th line seems to be holding their own and playing reasonably well, and the 3rd-pairing puck-moving D men are also doing their jobs. But the big problems remain a failure of the top 9 forwards and top 4 D men to do anything, and given that they play 80-90% of the game, this means the end results haven't been favorable.

If we look at the Big 4 flops in terms of acquisitions though, the trends were there to see before we signed any of them:

This season for the long run is probably a bit of a blessing for a series of reasons 1) Looks like MB has flopped again on acquiring a game changing d-man - wasted $ on Alzner, and looks to have wasted money on Savard 2) Made a bad public relations decision on over picking Mailloux - who I still think will pan out 3) Perhaps this is the year when Molson finally gets rid of MB and get someone who can effectively plan 4) Looks like we will get a top 10 draft pick - maybe a crack at Shane Wright and there looks like a couple of other centres in the draft that could have some ceilings (Lambert, Savoie)

 

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12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Depends what you're worrying about. I didn't think this team would make the playoffs, so I expected them to not be in a favorable spot in the standings based on their roster composition. With that in mind, I would almost say we're "better off" than I thought we would be, because I figured we'd be ranked a little higher, thus having a worse draft pick while still missing the playoffs. If we really finish down the standings then at least we get compensation for our bad season.

As far as playoff odds go, sportsclubstats has us at a 1% chance of making the post-season now. We'd have to go 43-25 (.632 winning percentage, or a 104-point pace over an entire season) the rest of the way just to have a better than 50% chance of making the post-season. To put that in perspective, the last time the Habs had that good a record was 2014-15, when they finished 2nd overall in the league. So not holding my breathe about that happening. Until the defence composition/philosophy is changed and until the center line is deepened, I don't think we're going anywhere, and seeing the D make-up change likely requires a change at GM.

So my only worry now is whether Geoff Molson finally wakes up and fires Bergevin.

Yes. Not really worrying about anything. Just  some people felt it was early and we would turn it around once we jelled as a team. I have to admit, that I didn't think we'd be this bad. Now,  I  just wanta fight for Wright. Molson has to get rid of bergebin soon. A new GM can use the rest of the season to make assessments & deals. A new GM would have an easier time getting rid of players,  as he would not have any emotional attachments to them. 

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1 hour ago, 26NCounting said:

I agree and certainly hope it's with the Habs,  I'm sure he will learn his lesson from his punishment and turn out to be an excellent player.  He certainly has the size and talent

Not a fan of the Mailloux pick, but he's part of the organization now. Hopefully he learns from his mistake, continues to grow as a young man, and becomes a person and player Montreal can be proud of.

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1 minute ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Not a fan of the Mailloux pick, but he's part of the organization now. Hopefully he learns from his mistake, continues to grow as a young man, and becomes a person and player Montreal can be proud of.

Certainly we picked him a little early (despite his wishes and transgression), but at 6-3 and 210 lbs plus with a cannon of a shot and Right handed defenceman, he may fill a void in the prospect pool. He will have one shadow that haunts him for a long time, so I hope that he learns from the peer pressure mistake he made.

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8 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

I agree and certainly hope it's with the Habs,  I'm sure he will learn his lesson from his punishment and turn out to be an excellent player.  He certainly has the size and talent

For sure. & the thing is, he was a minor at the time. If it happened here, the documents would be sealed.  As it was, he didn't try to deny it. He owned up to it, and was willing to face the consequences,  although,  who made the OHL judge & jury? 

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7 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Good decision. No harm in seeing what they do when inserted into Montreal's lineup. Worst case scenario Poehling goes back to Laval and Norlinder plays another year in Sweden.

If Norlinder doesn't get hurt, I see him going back to Sweden.  He sure gets hurt a lot. Seems fragile. I'm not worried about Poehling. Would have been nice to see him stay in Laval for at least a half season. He seems to get hurt a lot too. I hope he's not fragile?

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7 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Not a fan of the Mailloux pick, but he's part of the organization now. Hopefully he learns from his mistake, continues to grow as a young man, and becomes a person and player Montreal can be proud of.

It sure confirmed bergebin to be the hypocrite that he is.I don't mind Mailloux,  but the optics at the time were everything the Habs shunned. Bad PR.  But again,  as a minor, he made a mistake. I'm confident, that he learns from it.

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We've seen a few guys really pick up their level of play in the past couple of games... Romanov is playing a lot better, Evans is doing more, Gallagher seems to be Gallagher again, Chiarot is playing his best hockey in a long time.

Then you have guys who are playing well but where you're waiting for more results to come... Lehkonen, Petry, Toffoli, Wideman.

Would still like to see more from Savard, Kulak, Armia, Paquette, Montembeault, and Dvorak. Also feel like Allen has been a little bit shaky with his positioning and rebound control. He's fighting to stay in games, but he hasn't looked technically sound for the past little while.

The team will need a more complete effort top to bottom to be able to have more prolonged success.

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7 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

We've seen a few guys really pick up their level of play in the past couple of games... Romanov is playing a lot better, Evans is doing more, Gallagher seems to be Gallagher again, Chiarot is playing his best hockey in a long time.

Then you have guys who are playing well but where you're waiting for more results to come... Lehkonen, Petry, Toffoli, Wideman.

Would still like to see more from Savard, Kulak, Armia, Paquette, Montembeault, and Dvorak. Also feel like Allen has been a little bit shaky with his positioning and rebound control. He's fighting to stay in games, but he hasn't looked technically sound for the past little while.

The team will need a more complete effort top to bottom to be able to have more prolonged success.

We'll see what happens in Det. 

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11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

We've seen a few guys really pick up their level of play in the past couple of games... Romanov is playing a lot better, Evans is doing more, Gallagher seems to be Gallagher again, Chiarot is playing his best hockey in a long time.

Then you have guys who are playing well but where you're waiting for more results to come... Lehkonen, Petry, Toffoli, Wideman.

Agree with all of this.  Romanov looks like a different player out there, Evans seems to have gained his confidence.. and what can you say about Chiarot? This may be the best hockey ive ever seen him play. Its almost like they have told Petry to stay back & let Chiarot move more freely around the ice.  I dont think its a great idea but maybe when edmundson comes back Chiarot can transition next to a different partner who can do the same thing. If nothing else it has to be upping his trade value.  

Agree about those other 4 too.  Petry and Toffoli i think will turn a corner soon. I think Lehks is just lehks. You always think he can give a little more but im not sure he can.   Wideman has been a pleasant surprise. 

11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Would still like to see more from Savard, Kulak, Armia, Paquette, Montembeault, and Dvorak. Also feel like Allen has been a little bit shaky with his positioning and rebound control. He's fighting to stay in games, but he hasn't looked technically sound for the past little while.

The team will need a more complete effort top to bottom to be able to have more prolonged success.

Dvorak has been the biggest disappointment for me so far - but i need to qualify that: I think he's putting in the effort, i think he's doing a lot of little things right but i just think we're asking too much of him.   I know he feels like he can be an impact player, top 6 centre  - and maybe he can - but the transition has not been smooth and im still a little concerned that he's ultimately a #3 centre going forward. 

Allen has played a lot of hockey in a short period for him. Thats always been his downfall.  He looks like an elite starter one night and then just fades.... You cant blame him, he's signed and paid as a backup so we're asking him to play a role he's not suited for, but I agree, he looks like he's fighting the net a bit. Savard is the guy that worries me most although i think its still not as bad a Alzner because iIm pretty sure he'd be ok as your 3rd pairing guy (and he makes a little less $)

 

 

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On 11/8/2021 at 11:37 AM, habsisme said:

If we don't move Chiarot at the deadline for whatever we can get... well whoever is GM at the time needs to be fired. Savard I'm not sure we could move him but I absolutely would if I could. And yeah if we can get something good on D or C, for a winger or two, or first round draft picks especially in this years draft, I would do it

At least Chairot is getting some shots on net and doing some scoring, I'm kind of surprised how much I see that people want him moved asap.  Savard has been completely useless imo. I was cautiously optimistic when Savard was added but he's been a complete disappointment. 

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10 minutes ago, seth505 said:

At least Chairot is getting some shots on net and doing some scoring, I'm kind of surprised how much I see that people want him moved asap.  Savard has been completely useless imo. I was cautiously optimistic when Savard was added but he's been a complete disappointment. 

I agree with you assessment but Chiarot has one year on his contract so he is easily movable, and playing well so we can get something good for him. I think a 1st is not out of the question. I don't think re-signing him helps us but we can in the off-season if we want

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