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2021-22 State of the Habs


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16 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I agree with you assessment but Chiarot has one year on his contract so he is easily movable, and playing well so we can get something good for him. I think a 1st is not out of the question. I don't think re-signing him helps us but we can in the off-season if we want

Understood, makes sense.

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1 minute ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Man... Savard is looking like another albatross for MB. What is with him and his obsession with poor defenders? Corsi For % of 44.2 and Corsi For Relative % of -10.5. Three more seasons of this will definitely keep us in "rebuild" mode, I guess. :ph34r:

But it's not an albatross in the sense of it being a surprise. You look at some of these guys he's acquired... Alzner had terrible advanced stats in Washington. Savard has had terrible advanced stats his entire career. Dvorak's were also weak. Much of this was foreseeable.

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10 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

But it's not an albatross in the sense of it being a surprise. You look at some of these guys he's acquired... Alzner had terrible advanced stats in Washington. Savard has had terrible advanced stats his entire career. Dvorak's were also weak. Much of this was foreseeable.

yes and no, the players you used as example, I think that's certainly be the case (Dvorak is still quite good and useful but he's not as good as we hoped). But the advanced stats were bad on Weber too and I'm sorry he was too good. Sometimes the advanced stats don't say everything but I agree its like the habs don't even consider them 

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

But it's not an albatross in the sense of it being a surprise. You look at some of these guys he's acquired... Alzner had terrible advanced stats in Washington. Savard has had terrible advanced stats his entire career. Dvorak's were also weak. Much of this was foreseeable.

bergebin has never been a stats guy, as can be atested, when he fired his advanced stats guy after the Subban trade. 

Oh.  I  see others remember this fact.  👌

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56 minutes ago, electron58 said:

Ben's value has never been higher. A good GM would capitalize! That's why we need bergebin gone asap.

Thing is, even if he was good (and im certainly not saying he is) if he's not sticking around for next year, he is not the right guy to make trades that will have an impact on our future. 

A lame-duck GM (one who wont be with his team after his contract runs out) is the last guy you want in charge of trades.

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15 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Thing is, even if he was good (and im certainly not saying he is) if he's not sticking around for next year, he is not the right guy to make trades that will have an impact on our future. 

A lame-duck GM (one who wont be with his team after his contract runs out) is the last guy you want in charge of trades.

I trust Bergevin though, he thinks he has a chance to be here long term still, there's no reason for him not to do at least the little things like trade Chiarot. The other stuff, like moving at least one winger for prospects and looking at what Petry, Gallagher, and Price can get you, that he won't do because unfortunately it doesn't appear to be part of his philosiphy 

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6 hours ago, habsisme said:

yes and no, the players you used as example, I think that's certainly be the case (Dvorak is still quite good and useful but he's not as good as we hoped). But the advanced stats were bad on Weber too and I'm sorry he was too good. Sometimes the advanced stats don't say everything but I agree its like the habs don't even consider them 

Weber had strong advanced stats most of his career, then had a dip for a couple of seasons, then rebounded for a year or two before he was traded by Nashville. But his expected goals for % were always better than 50%. So he was never a bad advanced stats guy, and he kind of played out the same way here. The problem was never that Weber wasn't a good player, it was that he wasn't as good as Subban in terms of advanced stats, was older than Subban, and had a worse contract. And so trading for him at 31 without getting another asset in the trade didn't make a lot of sense. Most D men tend to fall off a cliff in their early-mid 30s, so that was a general concern for Weber. The expectation was that we might have gotten 2-3 good years out of Weber but then see his play drop off, and that's essentially what happened. Over the past couple of seasons, he was no longer a #1 or even #2 D man, but he was a good 2nd-pairing player. He just needed to be better-supported by a more mobile partner who could move the puck and make up for areas he was deficient in, and unfortunately, the Habs never realized that and paired him with the likes of Emelin and Alzner and Chiarot, and that was never the type of player to help Weber. Had we kept Sergachev or traded for a guy like Zach Werenski or Charlie McAvoy to play with Weber, the two of them could have made an all-star pairing.

So let's look at some of the guys the Habs have traded for or picked up in recent years and their advanced stats just before we acquired them:

- Chiarot: negative Corsi player in 3 of 4 seasons before coming here and negative expected goals in all 4 seasons. To boot, he was a negative relative Corsi player his entire career with Winnipeg, suggesting he didn't just have bad numbers because of the team he was playing on, he was actually a weak player himself. Although this absolute Corsi numbers improved in Montreal (under Julien's strong system), his relative numbers remain horrid, meaning the team is significantly better off in terms of puck possession with him on the bench than with him on the ice.

- Savard: much like Chiarot, a negative possession player his entire career with negative relative stats as well.

- Petry: a negative possession player with Edmonton BUT a positive relative Corsi player just about his entire career there, suggesting he was a good player on a bad team and a possible hidden gem. So completely the opposite of what we saw with Chiarot and Savard. Low and behold, Petry shows up here and he's a strong possession player both in absolute terms in a good system but also relative to his teammates.

- Armia: positive Corsi player in 2 of 3 years in the league prior to Montreal.

- Toffoli: strongly positive possession player his entire career and strong relative to his teammates too.

- Kulak: strongly positive possession player his entire career and strong relative to teammates too.

- Dvorak: weak possession numbers in both absolute terms and relative to his teammates his entire career.

- Edmundson: a borderline positive possession player most of his career but with negative relative Corsi in every season. He played in two strong systems in Stl and Car and joined another strong system in Mtl under Julien. What did we see? Exact same thing: Edmundson put up positive possession numbers but his relative Corsi remained negative and his numbers fell off when he wasn't partnered with Petry. So suggesting that Edmundson was a passable player but one who relied on a good system and partner to carry him through. I'm curious to see if the wheels fall off from his play this year under the lesser coaching of Dominic Ducharme, especially if he isn't paired with Petry at times.

- Mike Hoffman: strong possession numbers early in his career playing on good Sens teams. As the team got weaker, his absolute numbers fell off, but his relative numbers remained positive, suggesting he was done in by playing on bad rosters. So some hope for him to perform here, although with clear signs that his play has dropped off with age.

- Chris Wideman: hard to judge, numbers prior to arrival here were all over the place, primarily because of small sample size, but he's been a positive player more than a negative one in his career.

- Matthieu Perreault: mostly a strong possession player his entire career, but with significant drop-off the past two seasons. Still good relative numbers though, suggesting there was some drop-off in his level of play but that he was also done in by playing on weaker teams in Winnipeg at the end.

- Cedric Paquette: poor numbers all the way along.

... so I don't know, you look at a lot of that and the advanced stats would have predicted success for players like Petry, Kulak, Toffoli, Hoffman, and Perreault. It would have predicted struggles for Chiarot, Savard, Dvorak, and Paquette, and it would have suggested Edmundson being passable if sheltered. Other than Perreault maybe not being that fantastic, I don't think any of those predictive models were really that far off to be honest.

 

 

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14 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Weber had strong advanced stats most of his career, then had a dip for a couple of seasons, then rebounded for a year or two before he was traded by Nashville. But his expected goals for % were always better than 50%. So he was never a bad advanced stats guy, and he kind of played out the same way here. The problem was never that Weber wasn't a good player, it was that he wasn't as good as Subban in terms of advanced stats, was older than Subban, and had a worse contract. And so trading for him at 31 without getting another asset in the trade didn't make a lot of sense. Most D men tend to fall off a cliff in their early-mid 30s, so that was a general concern for Weber. The expectation was that we might have gotten 2-3 good years out of Weber but then see his play drop off, and that's essentially what happened. Over the past couple of seasons, he was no longer a #1 or even #2 D man, but he was a good 2nd-pairing player. He just needed to be better-supported by a more mobile partner who could move the puck and make up for areas he was deficient in, and unfortunately, the Habs never realized that and paired him with the likes of Emelin and Alzner and Chiarot, and that was never the type of player to help Weber. Had we kept Sergachev or traded for a guy like Zach Werenski or Charlie McAvoy to play with Weber, the two of them could have made an all-star pairing.

So let's look at some of the guys the Habs have traded for or picked up in recent years and their advanced stats just before we acquired them:

- Chiarot: negative Corsi player in 3 of 4 seasons before coming here and negative expected goals in all 4 seasons. To boot, he was a negative relative Corsi player his entire career with Winnipeg, suggesting he didn't just have bad numbers because of the team he was playing on, he was actually a weak player himself. Although this absolute Corsi numbers improved in Montreal (under Julien's strong system), his relative numbers remain horrid, meaning the team is significantly better off in terms of puck possession with him on the bench than with him on the ice.

- Savard: much like Chiarot, a negative possession player his entire career with negative relative stats as well.

- Petry: a negative possession player with Edmonton BUT a positive relative Corsi player just about his entire career there, suggesting he was a good player on a bad team and a possible hidden gem. So completely the opposite of what we saw with Chiarot and Savard. Low and behold, Petry shows up here and he's a strong possession player both in absolute terms in a good system but also relative to his teammates.

- Armia: positive Corsi player in 2 of 3 years in the league prior to Montreal.

- Toffoli: strongly positive possession player his entire career and strong relative to his teammates too.

- Kulak: strongly positive possession player his entire career and strong relative to teammates too.

- Dvorak: weak possession numbers in both absolute terms and relative to his teammates his entire career.

- Edmundson: a borderline positive possession player most of his career but with negative relative Corsi in every season. He played in two strong systems in Stl and Car and joined another strong system in Mtl under Julien. What did we see? Exact same thing: Edmundson put up positive possession numbers but his relative Corsi remained negative and his numbers fell off when he wasn't partnered with Petry. So suggesting that Edmundson was a passable player but one who relied on a good system and partner to carry him through. I'm curious to see if the wheels fall off from his play this year under the lesser coaching of Dominic Ducharme, especially if he isn't paired with Petry at times.

- Mike Hoffman: strong possession numbers early in his career playing on good Sens teams. As the team got weaker, his absolute numbers fell off, but his relative numbers remained positive, suggesting he was done in by playing on bad rosters. So some hope for him to perform here, although with clear signs that his play has dropped off with age.

- Chris Wideman: hard to judge, numbers prior to arrival here were all over the place, primarily because of small sample size, but he's been a positive player more than a negative one in his career.

- Matthieu Perreault: mostly a strong possession player his entire career, but with significant drop-off the past two seasons. Still good relative numbers though, suggesting there was some drop-off in his level of play but that he was also done in by playing on weaker teams in Winnipeg at the end.

- Cedric Paquette: poor numbers all the way along.

... so I don't know, you look at a lot of that and the advanced stats would have predicted success for players like Petry, Kulak, Toffoli, Hoffman, and Perreault. It would have predicted struggles for Chiarot, Savard, Dvorak, and Paquette, and it would have suggested Edmundson being passable if sheltered. Other than Perreault maybe not being that fantastic, I don't think any of those predictive models were really that far off to be honest.

 

 

That was the GM's big thing in Arizona a few years back. Going to build a team using advanced stats.......worked out great :4322:! Advanced stats are way overated in Hockey. Base ball yes to a point but it's a stagnant sport by design. Hockey has way to many intangibles. Also on a team you need several different types of players to play different roles. Depending what team a player plays for and that teams make up of players and coach at that time can greatly influence a players 'advanced" stats. 

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16 hours ago, habsisme said:

I trust Bergevin though, he thinks he has a chance to be here long term still, there's no reason for him not to do at least the little things like trade Chiarot. The other stuff, like moving at least one winger for prospects and looking at what Petry, Gallagher, and Price can get you, that he won't do because unfortunately it doesn't appear to be part of his philosiphy 

I wouldn't trust MB trading Belzile, he is just all over the place with his trade values. Patches was a good trade but then you look at Weber and Dvorak and shake your head. But then again he absolutely stole Danault and Romanov (the pick that landed him). Also his signings are also all over the place Savard and Alzner were/are horrible but Edmundson and Perry were great and the extension on Allen is great as well. It's the inconsistencies that make it hard to trust him

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4 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I wouldn't trust MB trading Belzile, he is just all over the place with his trade values. Patches was a good trade but then you look at Weber and Dvorak and shake your head. But then again he absolutely stole Danault and Romanov (the pick that landed him). Also his signings are also all over the place Savard and Alzner were/are horrible but Edmundson and Perry were great and the extension on Allen is great as well. It's the inconsistencies that make it hard to trust him

Yeah that's where I disagree with most. I think his trades have been great. Even the bad ones like drouin weren't really that bad

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5 minutes ago, habsisme said:

Yeah that's where I disagree with most. I think his trades have been great. Even the bad ones like drouin weren't really that bad

Bergevin has largely tried to fix this team thru free agency and that’s where he’s missed with Alzner, Savard, Chiarot / Edmundson duplication. His trades - he’s had some swings and misses like any other GM but it’s only the last 3 years of middle draft positions where I get any degree that our prospects pool can contribute in the future. 
centre - a big failure so now I wonder if he tries to fix by Hertl, Trocheck or Kadri signings in 2022. I’ve mentioned within another area where I would much rather move Chiarot plus? For someone else’s Centre prospects rather than a first rounder  Frost, Foerster, Zary, McMichael, Lapierre , Jost, Newhook, Jacob Perrault / Zegras, 

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35 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Here is another perspective . Forget whether his trades have been great good , bad or whether Montreal has won or lost the trades .

Is the team better or is the team getting better under MB ?

 

That's a big no, we are for the most part remaining in a plateau. We aren't getting significantly better or significantly worse and we haven't been doing either for like 4 years. Coincidentally since the arrival of Weber, I am not blaming Weber or saying it would have been better with PK just saying that is about the time we started to plateau. I like both Weber and PK and I think it would have been the same either way.

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6 hours ago, habsisme said:

Yeah that's where I disagree with most. I think his trades have been great. Even the bad ones like drouin weren't really that bad

This is a fair point. I'm not MB fan and think it's time to try another approach, but on trading specifically I think he's been above average. Even the trade I hated the most - Subban for Weber - arguably worked out okay given Subban's performance falling off a cliff a few years afterwards (even if Nashville got the better "peak"). Losing Sergachev was bad, especially in context of our defensive prospect pipeline - but every GM who's been in the job 10 years is going to have one or two of those. For the most part, his trades have either been winners or at least draws.

The problem has been MB has been overly reliant on trades and signings to plug holes in the lineup. Ignoring some of the fringe roster players / recent callups, how much of the "safe" roster has been drafted AND developed during MB's 10 years? I think it's basically Evans & Lehknonen, maybe Romanov if you consider his spot safe, and maybe Gallagher if you want to be generous. In theory using draft capital in trades can work, but in some cases seems to reek of desperation (needing a center, so trading our top dman prospect to get a winger that hopefully could play center is perhaps the best example). 

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16 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

This is a fair point. I'm not MB fan and think it's time to try another approach, but on trading specifically I think he's been above average. Even the trade I hated the most - Subban for Weber - arguably worked out okay given Subban's performance falling off a cliff a few years afterwards (even if Nashville got the better "peak"). Losing Sergachev was bad, especially in context of our defensive prospect pipeline - but every GM who's been in the job 10 years is going to have one or two of those. For the most part, his trades have either been winners or at least draws.

The problem has been MB has been overly reliant on trades and signings to plug holes in the lineup. Ignoring some of the fringe roster players / recent callups, how much of the "safe" roster has been drafted AND developed during MB's 10 years? I think it's basically Evans & Lehknonen, maybe Romanov if you consider his spot safe, and maybe Gallagher if you want to be generous. In theory using draft capital in trades can work, but in some cases seems to reek of desperation (needing a center, so trading our top dman prospect to get a winger that hopefully could play center is perhaps the best example). 

I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say when one looks back at our performance it would be a good idea for MB to lay down a law in Laval that our prospects have to concentrate on the original 6 idea ( that no team in the league is independent to refute the category and won't be) It would be something like the coaches need to update their plan to the point they admire those who can compete with those teams first and foremost and play scaled to those teams in game plan and training if not gauging the results.

I take your post to heart. I'm just thinking we are so capable of going off track and of course I'm supposing that there is some benefit to giving ourselves some credit for our history in the department of being original.

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On 11/13/2021 at 10:57 AM, Regis22 said:

Here is another perspective . Forget whether his trades have been great good , bad or whether Montreal has won or lost the trades .

Is the team better or is the team getting better under MB ?

 

Objectively we've gotten worse ... his first 5 years (the team he inherited) we had a winning pct of something like 0.550 or 0.575 ... his last 5 years and its closer to 0.400 (0.425 or there abouts).  

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7 minutes ago, electron58 said:

Worst goal differential through the first 17 games of a season in Canadiens franchise history (1917-18 to present):
-24 in 1941-42
-22 in 2021-22 (Thanks to their 5-2 defeat against the Bruins tonight)
-21 in 1942-43
-20 in 1938-39
-16 in 2017-18
-15 in 1921-22
-14 in 1935-36

That's VERY depressing. No doubt we will take over the #1 spot. 

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41 minutes ago, electron58 said:

Worst goal differential through the first 17 games of a season in Canadiens franchise history (1917-18 to present):
-24 in 1941-42
-22 in 2021-22 (Thanks to their 5-2 defeat against the Bruins tonight)
-21 in 1942-43
-20 in 1938-39
-16 in 2017-18
-15 in 1921-22
-14 in 1935-36

 

32 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

That's VERY depressing. No doubt we will take over the #1 spot. 

It's gonna be a long year.

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