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Who will Seattle take from the Habs?


Who will Seattle take from the Habs?  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. Which player will the Kraken draft from Montreal?

    • Carey Price
    • Jonathan Drouin
    • Paul Byron
    • Brett Kulak
    • Cale Fleury
    • Other
      0


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I am totally in the dark as to whom they pick. If they don't want to commit to the big bucks, they pass on Price. If they don't want to commit to a question mark about playing status next year,,, they pass on JD. Nobody in the League wanted Byron for free last year because of his contract so that's likely another pass by Seattle. There are a lot of better options then Kulak available so i can see them pass there too. Maybe they go with a prospect like Fleury??? 

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Gut feeling it's gonna be price.  Each choice definitely has its pros and cons and it makes a lot of sense for them to both pick price or pass.  I love price but I think it's time to move on and fill out rest of team with all that possible cap space!  This strange year just won't end!

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Also I really thought drouins situation would have been cleared up soon after playoffs with him waiting till then so it wouldn't be a distraction for the team, but before the draft. We've been getting info on prices and Webers injuries.  There's a ton of uncertainty right now with this team, really hard to figure what's going to happen

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IMHO:   Kulak  Byron, Drouin  Fleury Price in that order.

- Kulak is a cheap, serviceable defensman who wouldnt look out of place in their top 4.  He's got great advanced stats & the Kraken team has said they value those a lot, they are a "new thinking" hockey club.

- Byron is #2 - he'd be coveted by any team in the league for his defensive play and very timely goals... the only downside is of course that contract. 

- Drouin is #3 - but this is purely based on what WE know. Its possible, since the Kraken know the full extent of his absence, the feel he's worth the risk, in which case he'd shoot up to #1 for me. 

- Price is #4 - If healthy, it would be a tough call for them to take him & his huge contract but considering he now may be out for months... the Kraken are obligated to take 3 goals, so, sure they could take Price & 2 league min guys (about $12.5m) but if he's out for months  then what? The whole league knows that a rested carey price is a more effective carey price too, so you have to assume they will take a halfway decent #2... now you're up to what, $14m, maybe $16m? Thats a really tough way to start your salary cap in nets. 

- Fleury i dont think is even on their radar.  I think they could possibly be more interested in a guy like Weber (Do they get to send their own medical staff to evaluate him? probably not) but in any event I assume its one of the 4 guys listed above before Fleury or Weber or anyone else. 


There's an outside chance they talk to Danault or Tatar and offer them a deal ahead of free agency and then we dont lose anyone under contract too. Normally i wouldnt think this was a major option but we've given so little of value, locking up Danault with a bit of overpayment per year may be a better choice than taking on Byron's contract or something.   Danault would definitely get the minutes he wanted!! ha. 
 

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Honestly?  I have no idea, and there are too many unknowns for me to even make an educated guess.  The biggest two questions being: what's up with Drouin (and how much are the Kraken aware of) and has there been any communication with Seattle regarding Price.

All the same I voted for Price, mostly because I had to vote for someone and it seemed as good a choice as any.  I get the arguments against his selection, and I'm not ruling out the Canadiens' story of exposing him based on the fact that he won't be taken being the honest truth.  But things sorts of bold moves can have a way of coming back to bite you, and I can see Seattle taking a chance.  It's the Fleury storyline in Vegas that's pushed me over the edge though - people (both fans and management) tend to read patterns in these sorts of things, and I can certainly see Seattle selecting Price based on both his star power and on the potential additional interest he would bring to the team if he's successful.

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For me, there's too many variables. Age, contracts, term, production, (or lack thereof), stats, injuies, what they bring (note Perry), and family even. 

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My guess is JD, young enough to sti hit his potential as a late bloomer, at the very least a 2nd line winger, capable of putting up 50 points consistently, has speed and is an elite setup guy. Couple this with the fact that I believe Domi is the selection from Columbus and they had past chemistry in Montreal and the factthat even if it does not work out they are only committed to the contract for 2 years and if things do work out and Drouin hits 50 points again then he has value at the deadline and with retention could fetch a nice return.

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I think Jonathan Drouin or Brett Kulak are the two most likely to be taken. I'm sure Seattle will discuss the idea of drafting Price, but if he does need knee surgery... I mean, how much would Seattle be willing to take a gamble on that? It's a lot of salary cap to take up over the next five seasons on someone who has struggled over the last few years.

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Believe a deal has already been reached with Seattle. None of this makes a lot of sense, so that would be my best guess. A draft pick going to them and guy like Fleury getting picked. Would only be Drouin if they are the only people in the world that know what is going on with him. 

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21 minutes ago, tony5775 said:

Believe a deal has already been reached with Seattle. None of this makes a lot of sense, so that would be my best guess. A draft pick going to them and guy like Fleury getting picked. Would only be Drouin if they are the only people in the world that know what is going on with him. 

Seattle cannot take more than 10 RFA's with CHEAP contracts that have expired for 2021 and need to be renegotiated for the 2021-22 season. There are at least 10 unprotected RFA's with expired contracts, that have far better achievements and ceilings than Cale (Danton Heinen, Nick Ritchie, Jake Bean, Vince Dunn, Ryan Donato, Dominik Kahun, Andreas Athananasiu etc.) - All of them have a better body of work than Cale. Unless Seattle is going ultra cheap, the chances of them selecting Cale Fleury is IMO virtually nil vs. spend $1.1M more and get a player like Kulak. 

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My odds:

30% Kulak (they won't be thrilled with the pick, but given how few options we gave them, seems like a solid all around choice: cheap, short contract, experienced, useful player)

25% Price (I thought this liklihood was like 5%, but insiders seem to be reporting Seattle is seriously considering it, although possible they're leaking that to try and get MB to give them free draft picks or something)

20% Drouin (really hard to know because we don't know details of why he went on LTIR: I previously thought Seattle wouldn't know either, but read recently they get to see all medical details of exposed players. The fact MB exposed him makes me think there is something in there that would make him unattractive to Seattle, but given he's a top-six forward available for free, I want to give him some odds)

10% Byron (on the one hand, why would they take someone no one took for free last year? On the other hand, he's a good two-way player, fun to watch (could be important for expansion franchise), the contract is a bit high but it's only for two more years, he should be a good leader, kind of fits the Vegas "misfits" mold: not a crazy choice)

5% Danault (dependable 2-way forward who would fill in nicely on the 2nd-3rd line, they have money to spend, and given what else we left them, using expansion pick to get him locked up prior to hitting free agency not the worst idea)

5% Fleury (young player with a bit of upside: seems unlikely, but if they don't like what else we've left them, when in doubt, go with youth)

5% Others (who knows what else they could be thinking?)

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In order

1. Drouin... biggest upside. Could thrive being out of Montreal and really, where else is Seattle getting top 6 players without paying out big contracts. I think they take a couple of Johansen, Zucker, Drouin, Domi, Tarasenko, Duchene, Gourde, etc. and much of it might come down to salary vs. age vs. what else is available from those other teams. Yes, Seattle could opt for ZAR or DeSmith from Pittsburgh but I feel like Zucker is reasonably-priced, isn't a long-term risk, is poised to rebound in the right situation (the way Tatar did here), and could be swapped for a big return at one of the next two trade deadlines if he plays well. Likewise, Drouin is still only 26 and could thrive outside of Mtl with less pressure. He's a gamble, but the upside is much higher than any other player except Price (who comes with an even bigger salary).

2. Kulak... he checks a lot of their boxes: short contract, not a ton of money, great analytics. The only reason I have some hesitancy is because there's less upside there and a host of other D men who are available who are better than him and not super-expensive either.

3. Price... have discussed him already, but if they choose him it's because they're looking past the salary and trying to reap the off-ice benefits of marketing and the on-ice benefits of trying to have instant success and becoming a want-to-play-for-them destination the way Vegas did. So yeah, you give up salary to Price, but it's also making you a legit franchise with playoff aspirations right away and that might help you lure other players in a year or two. It's an investment to consider. Kind of like if you're a start-up company and you take out a big loan and push a bunch of money into advertising right away. It's a risk, but it could also establish you in the field.

4. Fleury... young guy cheap contract, potentially reunited with his brother. There's upside here and very little risk if he doesn't pan out.

5. Danault... as I said in another thread, it could be they try to reunite Danault and Tatar. He clearly wants to follow the money and playing time, and they can offer him those two things.

6. Vejdemo... like Fleury, young guy with some upside.

7. Byron.. I have a hard time believing they see upside here. Sure, he's a useful depth player, but there are a ton of those available to Seattle. Why pay 3.4M for one when you can get one for 1M? And clearly there isn't a lot of demand for him, so hard to imagine they could flip him.

 

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16 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

My odds:

30% Kulak (they won't be thrilled with the pick, but given how few options we gave them, seems like a solid all around choice: cheap, short contract, experienced, useful player)

25% Price (I thought this liklihood was like 5%, but insiders seem to be reporting Seattle is seriously considering it, although possible they're leaking that to try and get MB to give them free draft picks or something)

20% Drouin (really hard to know because we don't know details of why he went on LTIR: I previously thought Seattle wouldn't know either, but read recently they get to see all medical details of exposed players. The fact MB exposed him makes me think there is something in there that would make him unattractive to Seattle, but given he's a top-six forward available for free, I want to give him some odds)

10% Byron (on the one hand, why would they take someone no one took for free last year? On the other hand, he's a good two-way player, fun to watch (could be important for expansion franchise), the contract is a bit high but it's only for two more years, he should be a good leader, kind of fits the Vegas "misfits" mold: not a crazy choice)

5% Danault (dependable 2-way forward who would fill in nicely on the 2nd-3rd line, they have money to spend, and given what else we left them, using expansion pick to get him locked up prior to hitting free agency not the worst idea)

5% Fleury (young player with a bit of upside: seems unlikely, but if they don't like what else we've left them, when in doubt, go with youth)

5% Others (who knows what else they could be thinking?)

 

14 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

In order

1. Drouin... biggest upside. Could thrive being out of Montreal and really, where else is Seattle getting top 6 players without paying out big contracts. I think they take a couple of Johansen, Zucker, Drouin, Domi, Tarasenko, Duchene, Gourde, etc. and much of it might come down to salary vs. age vs. what else is available from those other teams. Yes, Seattle could opt for ZAR or DeSmith from Pittsburgh but I feel like Zucker is reasonably-priced, isn't a long-term risk, is poised to rebound in the right situation (the way Tatar did here), and could be swapped for a big return at one of the next two trade deadlines if he plays well. Likewise, Drouin is still only 26 and could thrive outside of Mtl with less pressure. He's a gamble, but the upside is much higher than any other player except Price (who comes with an even bigger salary).

2. Kulak... he checks a lot of their boxes: short contract, not a ton of money, great analytics. The only reason I have some hesitancy is because there's less upside there and a host of other D men who are available who are better than him and not super-expensive either.

3. Price... have discussed him already, but if they choose him it's because they're looking past the salary and trying to reap the off-ice benefits of marketing and the on-ice benefits of trying to have instant success and becoming a want-to-play-for-them destination the way Vegas did. So yeah, you give up salary to Price, but it's also making you a legit franchise with playoff aspirations right away and that might help you lure other players in a year or two. It's an investment to consider. Kind of like if you're a start-up company and you take out a big loan and push a bunch of money into advertising right away. It's a risk, but it could also establish you in the field.

4. Fleury... young guy cheap contract, potentially reunited with his brother. There's upside here and very little risk if he doesn't pan out.

5. Danault... as I said in another thread, it could be they try to reunite Danault and Tatar. He clearly wants to follow the money and playing time, and they can offer him those two things.

6. Vejdemo... like Fleury, young guy with some upside.

7. Byron.. I have a hard time believing they see upside here. Sure, he's a useful depth player, but there are a ton of those available to Seattle. Why pay 3.4M for one when you can get one for 1M? And clearly there isn't a lot of demand for him, so hard to imagine they could flip him.

 

There;s some slight variation in your percentages but I think you're both kind of going the same way. I still think odds are:

Drouin/Kulak (really depends if they have more info on Drouin

Price (if as mentioned, they want that "face of the franchise appeal)

then a big drop off and:

weber (everyone is counting him out of the selection but if montreal is exaggerating his injuries, he's exactly the sort of 'leadership' guy you'd want to build a rag-tag group of players around.  I highly doubt he goes before the 3 guys listed above but I also wouldnt be floored if he did

I rank Byron next but a lot will do with what else is out there & what they choose to take. There are certainly better, similar players to him, but the ED is all about getting the right player from the right team so while i think its unlikely they pick Byron he may fit the needs based on what else they take.

I also think there's a chance they try to lock up Danault. He'd be our best player available based on age, health and skillset but it might take a big overpayment to keep him from testing UFA. 

Everyone else to me is pretty unlikely to get picked but who knows!

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8 hours ago, maas_art said:

 

There;s some slight variation in your percentages but I think you're both kind of going the same way. I still think odds are:

Drouin/Kulak (really depends if they have more info on Drouin

Price (if as mentioned, they want that "face of the franchise appeal)

then a big drop off and:

weber (everyone is counting him out of the selection but if montreal is exaggerating his injuries, he's exactly the sort of 'leadership' guy you'd want to build a rag-tag group of players around.  I highly doubt he goes before the 3 guys listed above but I also wouldnt be floored if he did

I rank Byron next but a lot will do with what else is out there & what they choose to take. There are certainly better, similar players to him, but the ED is all about getting the right player from the right team so while i think its unlikely they pick Byron he may fit the needs based on what else they take.

I also think there's a chance they try to lock up Danault. He'd be our best player available based on age, health and skillset but it might take a big overpayment to keep him from testing UFA. 

Everyone else to me is pretty unlikely to get picked but who knows!

I highly doubt it's Weber. He wasn't that great last year, he's old, he makes a lot of money, and unlike Price, he doesn't have the same upside, seems to have a more serious injury, and doesn't have ties to Seattle (even though he is from BC). I think Weber's also more likely to retire in the next year or two, if indeed he comes back from injury.

FWIW, Brian Wilde was on Tony Marinaro's podcast and says he doesn't think Drouin will play in the NHL ever again and that he was reasonably confident in that prediction. Not sure what he knows. There are rumors of anxiety, there are rumors of substance abuse. Either way, would be disappointing not to see him play again.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I highly doubt it's Weber. He wasn't that great last year, he's old, he makes a lot of money, and unlike Price, he doesn't have the same upside, seems to have a more serious injury, and doesn't have ties to Seattle (even though he is from BC). I think Weber's also more likely to retire in the next year or two, if indeed he comes back from injury.

FWIW, Brian Wilde was on Tony Marinaro's podcast and says he doesn't think Drouin will play in the NHL ever again and that he was reasonably confident in that prediction. Not sure what he knows. There are rumors of anxiety, there are rumors of substance abuse. Either way, would be disappointing not to see him play again.

Yeah it would be a shame about Drouin. all that talent and potential.

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most up-to-date reports have Seattle taking a pass on Price ...a subtle game of chicken going with Francis and Bergevin...Seattle wants the pot sweetened ( draft pick/picks ) to not take Carey and Bergevin won't give it to him ..so Bergevin is calling his bluff because he thinks Francis won't pick him anyway 

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