Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

Montreal doesnt match Hurricanes Offer Sheet to KK


Recommended Posts

I don’t really like any of the names being thrown around as trade targets. Dvorak is the best of the bunch, but that’s really not saying much. Hertl, Kuznetsov? No thank you, for all three of them. No need to rush into anything. You never know what can happen once the season starts. By Christmas some teams my be in a whole different place than they expected to be, including us. PLD wasn’t available at this time last season, but that changed in a hurry. Example, if Philly gets off to a rough start, they’ve basically come right out and said there not planning on re-signing Giroux, at least not talking about it till after the season. If I knew we could extend him  3-4 years at a good price, I would way rather Giroux than any of these other bandaids. And if Giroux doesn’t float your boat, that’s okay, that’s just an idea. Point is these aforementioned trade targets aren’t all that’s available, they’re  just all that’s available at the moment. Patience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Let's look at this from JK's perspective: if your two offers are 6.1M from Carolina or 2-3 years at 2.5-3M AAV from Montreal, you consider the higher contract offer. I don't think JK necessarily expects to be paid 6.1M long-term, but it gives him leverage to buck up his qualifying offer next year to over 5M (rather than be continually lowballed by Montreal) and it gives him a big payday and a chance to boost his value for a long-term deal.

I'm not concerned about the one year at 6.1M. As I said, there's no commitment here, so you can literally walk away in a year (and likely still recoup trade value then) if you don't want to pay him. But the odds are that moving a guy from playing 3rd-line minutes with Lehkonen/Armia/Byron to playing a 2nd-line role with the likes of Drouin, Hoffman, Toffoli, Anderson, or Gallagher will boost his production and value. In other words, I would be incredibly surprised if JK didn't have his best year as a pro. Will he be a 4M player at the end of next year or a 6M player or a 7.5M player, I don't know. But I don't think having to qualify him at 5.1M next year will be the end of the world and I think if we want to sign him long-term next off-season, an AAV of 5.5 to 6.5M is not going to seem unreasonable. Again, there are two outcomes: either he lives up to expectations and earns that type of long-term deal or he doesn't progress and you move on anyways.

People are talking about Dvorak, and he's a reasonable 3rd-line center option or poor man's 2C in a pinch. But he's not worth a 1st and a 3rd and I wouldn't trade JK straight up for him. Dvorak now is where we'd be with Kotkaniemi if he doesn't really progress 3 years from now and puts up 15-17 goals a year over that time. It's decent, but it's not where you want your 2C to be and it's not worth a 21-year old top prospect. It would be devastating if MB takes the picks and flips them for a mid-level player. You keep the guy with the potential to be top-end, not the guy who's established as average. If we're walking away from JK, you either need a top-end potential guy as a replacement or you need a guy who is established as a top 2 center (an Eichel, a Pettersson, a Hertl...). We shouldn't be accepting a downgrade just to get out of one year of 6M.

Thank you, someone who finally sees the forest for the trees LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, habsisme said:

I've made it pretty clear I don't want them to match but one thing in favor of matching that I didn't think of before is club-elected arbitration. I'm not 100% on this but I believe that the team could force arbitration rather than a 6 million dollar qualifying offer. If this is the case then it changes my perspective a bit. 

I'd still rather move on, especially if we can trade for someone else. I actually like Dvorak a lot and he seems like an all situation player. I'd give up the first and third for him if the first is lottery protected 

KK is Arbitration eligible this coming season but I do believe you still have to qualify him (I could be wrong though). However IF he truly wants out and will not sign the QO or a lower cap hit deal then you can go to Arbitration and get a cap hit of 5.185 Mil on a 1 year deal which will help to raise his trade value a bit since his contract would be closer to his actual value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

I don’t really like any of the names being thrown around as trade targets. Dvorak is the best of the bunch, but that’s really not saying much. Hertl, Kuznetsov? No thank you, for all three of them. No need to rush into anything. You never know what can happen once the season starts. By Christmas some teams my be in a whole different place than they expected to be, including us. PLD wasn’t available at this time last season, but that changed in a hurry. Example, if Philly gets off to a rough start, they’ve basically come right out and said there not planning on re-signing Giroux, at least not talking about it till after the season. If I knew we could extend him  3-4 years at a good price, I would way rather Giroux than any of these other bandaids. And if Giroux doesn’t float your boat, that’s okay, that’s just an idea. Point is these aforementioned trade targets aren’t all that’s available, they’re  just all that’s available at the moment. Patience.

Another reason to match and see how KK does this year cause IF Philly doesn't resign Giroux and KK does not live up to his contract or want to resign then Giroux may just want to come home and play for the Habs on a more reasonable deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, habsisme said:

I'm NOT saying KK is a BUST. But he's not a 3rd overall pick. He's a mid round first round talent who hasn't improved very much in 3 years. If I saw something in his game, but I haven't at all. 

Brian Hayes on TSN OverDrive on KK offer-sheet: "There's no way he can match 6.1, he's not good enough. He's not every going to be a superstar, he doesn't have it. There's nothing wrong with saying it, I know he went 3rd OA, he shouldn't have, they drafted him based on positional need."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

People are talking about Dvorak, and he's a reasonable 3rd-line center option or poor man's 2C in a pinch. But he's not worth a 1st and a 3rd and I wouldn't trade JK straight up for him. Dvorak now is where we'd be with Kotkaniemi if he doesn't really progress 3 years from now and puts up 15-17 goals a year over that time. It's decent, but it's not where you want your 2C to be and it's not worth a 21-year old top prospect. It would be devastating if MB takes the picks and flips them for a mid-level player. You keep the guy with the potential to be top-end, not the guy who's established as average. If we're walking away from JK, you either need a top-end potential guy as a replacement or you need a guy who is established as a top 2 center (an Eichel, a Pettersson, a Hertl...). We shouldn't be accepting a downgrade just to get out of one year of 6M.

I don't know that Dvorak is that much of a downgrade over KK but it does depend on what we have to pay to acquire him from the Yotes. In a full season, I would expect this 2nd rounder 58th overall to put up 20+ goals and probably 45-50 points. Do you think KK's ceiling is much more than that at this point over the next 2 years? Dvorak on a goals / points per $ seems to offer better value than KK at $6M / downgrading paycuts. Dvorak's line mates he played with on a tired Zona team of Kessel, Garland, Hall weren't that motivated, so maybe Dvorak has some upside here.  

A mid-late round 1st (probability 50% of making it) and a third round (probability 20%), doesn't appear to be a massive overpay for a proven NHL player like Dvorak. However, I would agree with you that it's not a top-end 2C - he wouldn't dramatically improve the team and it would be just so-so bandaid in most outcomes. KK is a big IF for next season, I don't think we should be counting on KK for a massive dramatic uplift either (regardless of the $6M match). Either way we seem destined for fighting for a playoff spot whoever fills that 2C spot of the two of them unless we swing for the fences with an Eichel or Pettersen etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, claremont said:

I don't know that Dvorak is that much of a downgrade over KK but it does depend on what we have to pay to acquire him from the Yotes.

Yeah, to me, right now, Sept 2021 - Dvorak is actually the better player. He'll likely be an upgrade over what we saw from JK last year.  The question is whether JK is going to continue to improve and surpass Dvorak.  You know what you're getting with RD. With JK its still just "potential" - and dont get me wrong, the potential is there to be much better, but there's also a chance he ends up never reaching that level. 

In a perfect world, Id keep JK (at least than $6.1m) AND acquire Dvorak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, to me, right now, Sept 2021 - Dvorak is actually the better player. He'll likely be an upgrade over what we saw from JK last year.  The question is whether JK is going to continue to improve and surpass Dvorak.  You know what you're getting with RD. With JK its still just "potential" - and dont get me wrong, the potential is there to be much better, but there's also a chance he ends up never reaching that level. 

In a perfect world, Id keep JK (at least than $6.1m) AND acquire Dvorak.

I don't think we have seen all that Dvorak has he is on a garbage team who's games mean nothing to anyone not named Bettman, Here with good players and more fans than you can handle and he may just blow us away. KK has had all that now he is going to a town where Hockey is pretty far down the pecking order for interest it will be a bit of a shock I am sure! Imagine Dvorak with Andersson or Hoffman on his line or perhaps even Drouin it should be good, or it may have been good with KK too tough to tell I looked at Dvoraks #'s when you look at the garbage team over there he did pretty good he is still only 25 it is not a bad exchange I think for a lot of folks the dream of what KK might be is just hard to let go of problem is he might never be that guy I feel most Hab's fans overate what he has for talent, of course that is just what I feel based on what I have seen of him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-rumors-september-2-2021/

Kotkaniemi Wanted a Way Out

Reporter Arpon Basu was a guest on Melnick in the Afternoon on TSN690 and was talking about the Kotkaniemi situation. He said, “I think a lot of things played into him agreeing to this offer-sheet and trying to find a way out because I’m not sure if he’s 100% certain that his own development has been properly managed by this team.”

There were rumors that Kotkaniemi wasn’t happy being a healthy scratch and that perhaps the Canadiens didn’t have the faith in him he thought they should. It will be interesting to see if the Canadiens match how he’ll feel about going back, especially since he can’t be traded for a year’s time after an offer sheet is matched.

What will be interesting is to see where the Hurricanes slot him if he comes to the team. Aaron Ward on TSN 690 said of Kotkaniemi joining the Hurricanes: “The system itself fits very well, the tough part is now you have to supplant Aho, Trocheck and Staal, which is going to be a tough battle. So immediately coming to this team making $6M, you’re a 4th line centreman.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Regis22 said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-rumors-september-2-2021/

Kotkaniemi Wanted a Way Out

Reporter Arpon Basu was a guest on Melnick in the Afternoon on TSN690 and was talking about the Kotkaniemi situation. He said, “I think a lot of things played into him agreeing to this offer-sheet and trying to find a way out because I’m not sure if he’s 100% certain that his own development has been properly managed by this team.”

There were rumors that Kotkaniemi wasn’t happy being a healthy scratch and that perhaps the Canadiens didn’t have the faith in him he thought they should. It will be interesting to see if the Canadiens match how he’ll feel about going back, especially since he can’t be traded for a year’s time after an offer sheet is matched.

What will be interesting is to see where the Hurricanes slot him if he comes to the team. Aaron Ward on TSN 690 said of Kotkaniemi joining the Hurricanes: “The system itself fits very well, the tough part is now you have to supplant Aho, Trocheck and Staal, which is going to be a tough battle. So immediately coming to this team making $6M, you’re a 4th line centreman.”

Remember when KK held 4 fingers up to his teammates in the stands? I think one of those were meant for bergebin.☝

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

Anybody know when we'll find out if MB matches? 

Yeah he has 7 days to match & i would suspect he'll take the full week which ends this Saturday.  He could match any time before that but the longer he stretches it out, the more options there are to explore. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, to me, right now, Sept 2021 - Dvorak is actually the better player. He'll likely be an upgrade over what we saw from JK last year.  The question is whether JK is going to continue to improve and surpass Dvorak.  You know what you're getting with RD. With JK its still just "potential" - and dont get me wrong, the potential is there to be much better, but there's also a chance he ends up never reaching that level. 

In a perfect world, Id keep JK (at least than $6.1m) AND acquire Dvorak.

Christian Dvorak is playing on a bad team. But on the other hand, he also got 18.5 minutes of ice time per game last year. He scored 17 goals, and 8 of them were on the PP. At ES, he's put up pretty poor numbers, and his Corsi has been below 50% in 4 out of his 5 seasons in the NHL. His expected goals for % also negative last year and in 3 of 5 seasons. And sure, you might think that you can blame his poor possession and scoring record on being on a bad team, but his relative Corsi and expected goals are also negative. What does that mean? It means Dvorak had bad possession numbers and that the team was expected to allow more goals against than score themselves when he was on the ice AND that the Coyotes had a worse record in this regard with him on than with him off. So this wasn't just a function of his playing on a bad team, he was actually below average for a Coyote. Conversely, Kotkaniemi has banged out Corsi's of 57%, 54%, and 55% in his first 3 years. He had positive relative Corsi numbers in 2 of the 3 years and the 3rd year he was essentially even, and this despite getting weaker than average quality linemates.

Now let's turn to the PP, where he produced half his goals. So is he maybe a key asset there? Again, when you dive into the numbers, not particularly. My preferred stat to look at for PP performance is how many scoring chances are being generated per ice time with that player on the ice. It gives you a sense of how dangerous the PP is with him on. In Dvorak's case, his team generated 41 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5v4 PP time with him on. Comparatively, Kotkaniemi and the Habs, despite their anemic powerplay, generated over 43 chances per 60 with him on. He was 2nd on the entire Habs roster behind only Brendan Gallagher last year.

So sure, Kotkaniemi has less experience than Dvorak and his point production is lower thus far in his career. But he's also been getting 4-5 minutes less ice time per game than Dvorak. He was given a 3C or even 4C role at times. And he's 4 years younger with more room to grow. The advanced stats strongly support that Dvorak is a weak possession player, even correcting for his weak team, while Kotkaniemi was a strong possession player, even correcting for being on a stronger team. Kotkaniemi is a more dangerous weapon on the PP already. And let's not forget that JK played extremely well in clutch moments in both of his post-season runs.

Someone else asked what Kotkaniemi's top end might be and whether it's higher than 15-20 goals and 40-50 points. The answer is a resounding yes. Goal-wise I think he'll likely be a 15-20 goal man and no more because he takes a pass-first approach, so unless he changes his mentality, I don't see him becoming a traditional goal-scorer, but I think he could hit 25 goals once or twice in his career. But point-wise, I think this is a player who will regularly put up 40-50 points if given the 2C role and I think he'll surpass that total at least 4-5 times. I wouldn't be surprised if he has seasons of 60-70 points once or twice. Again, none of this is to say he gets there, but if you're asking me what his top-end potential is, it's way higher than Dvorak's. Dvorak is 25 already. He hasn't shown he'll be a star, and I think it's unlikely he suddenly becomes a 60-point player, whereas Kotkaniemi has shown growth in his overall game and still has the potential to take a significant leap as he matures and as he's given better linemates and more ice time. How much more ice time than 18.5 minutes would need to give Dvorak to see a significant jump in production?

I'll agree with your point about having both: Dvorak would be an upgrade at 3C and allow us to put Evans on the 4th line and Poehling on the wing (and Paquette in the pressbox). But Dvorak is not worth a 1st round pick. And Dvorak is certainly not worth Kotkaniemi as a swap-in, swap-out scenario. I think Kotkaniemi is already the more valuable player.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, to me, right now, Sept 2021 - Dvorak is actually the better player. He'll likely be an upgrade over what we saw from JK last year.  The question is whether JK is going to continue to improve and surpass Dvorak.  You know what you're getting with RD. With JK its still just "potential" - and dont get me wrong, the potential is there to be much better, but there's also a chance he ends up never reaching that level. 

In a perfect world, Id keep JK (at least than $6.1m) AND acquire Dvorak.

Actually, that was what I was hoping would happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I'll agree with your point about having both: Dvorak would be an upgrade at 3C and allow us to put Evans on the 4th line and Poehling on the wing (and Paquette in the pressbox). But Dvorak is not worth a 1st round pick. And Dvorak is certainly not worth Kotkaniemi as a swap-in, swap-out scenario. I think Kotkaniemi is already the more valuable player.

  great analysis ...made re-think the pluses in keeping KK ...that and the fact Waddell has tried to bully the Habs and then used social media to insult and demean the team  ...on the other hand it looks a lot like KK wants out for the money alone...can't blame him  ...tough call 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really curious to see what happens in the next 24 hrs.  I imagine we'll have to wait the full 7 days but its possible MB announces the decision today.


At  the centre you have a (barely) 21 year old centre, with over 200 NHL games, he's big, he's skilled, he has the makings of a dominant centre but he hasnt got there yet.  Most GMs seem to think he's worth $2m a  season, Carolina offered $6.1 so obviously its not a simple "we'll match" decision.  BUt what makes it really interesting is the centre depth of each team:

Montreal has Suzuki... then a whole bunch of guys who are suited to 3rd or 4th line duties. Thats it.  Sure, is possible Evans or Poehling take a big jump this year but on paper, we're very very thin there.

Carolina has an abundance of Centres. Aho is an elite #1.  But Necas is possibly a #1 in the making too (he's been playing RW) while Trochek, Staal and even Stepan are all capable #2-3-4 centres.  Then you have Ryan Suzuki and Jack Drury who both are probably better centre prospects than any guy we have in Laval. Where does Kotkaniemi fit in all of this??   Sure, you could play him on the wing or trade someone to make room for him, but then why sign him to this crazy salary.

I really think that one option that hasnt been discussed much is that Waddell/Dundon are trying to use the OS as leverage in a trade.  I think they want Kotkaneimi for sure, I dont think it was just for spite, but I think they want a centre group of Aho, JK and Necas.  I think the other guys are expendable and I wouldnt be surprised at all to see someone like Trochet and/or Suzuki coming back to our team by this time tomorrow. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maas_art said:



I really think that one option that hasnt been discussed much is that Waddell/Dundon are trying to use the OS as leverage in a trade.  I think they want Kotkaneimi for sure, I dont think it was just for spite, but I think they want a centre group of Aho, JK and Necas.  I think the other guys are expendable and I wouldnt be surprised at all to see someone like Trochet and/or Suzuki coming back to our team by this time tomorrow. 
 

Every indication i've read seems to point that this was a SPITE reaction on Waddell's part. He may be trying to sugar coat it a little but the twitter comments in Frencn, and the signing bonus all seem to be directed at MB. Bergevin may ultimately get the last laugh in all this, but so far he has mud on his face IMO.

KK is a guy the Canes most definitely didn't need with their current depth at center and especially not at 6.1 million. In one way i don't want to lose KK, and in another way i'd like this to backfire on Waddell and have it go through. That may be MB's ultimate chance at revenge.

I'm sure whatever happens, other GM's have taken note not to try and poach other teams talent in this way. It was already an iffy thing to try as it was, and this just adds to the "don't go there" list.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • maas_art changed the title to Montreal doesnt match Hurricanes Offer Sheet to KK
  • H_T_L locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...