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Montreal doesnt match Hurricanes Offer Sheet to KK


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Going after Necas or not, I think the Canes will be forced to extend him for more $ than they were hoping for as the threat of an offer sheet will undoubtedly be brought up by his agent. 

I also think the Poehling signing just a day before this offer sheet was signed shows that MB probably had a feeling that it was in the works. 

It'd be nice to have a poll added to this thread to see where we all stand. 

Any news as to when MB will be making a statement?

 

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34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I wonder if MB would even try at that point? 

He's exactly the kind of guy I'd expect to try just out of spite.

 

2 hours ago, habsisme said:

yeah but if KK made a handshake deal with carolina, there's no certainty he would make the same deal with us. We're putting a lot of faith in a player who did everything he could to embarass us. Forget MB, I AM NOT SWALLOWING MY PRIDE. KK is dead to me, I will not cheer for him under any circumstances. He can take his ugly mole and get the hell out of her. Loser. 

I wouldn't go that far but I definitely have soured on him a lot. Not at all because he took the offer, that's perfectly fine and quite frankly, I would have done the same. What I absolutey hate about the entire situation is that he was clearly fine with being a pawn in all that unprofessional crap the Hurricanes are pulling and seem to really enjoy, i.e. the signing bonus and petty Cap numbers on that contract he signed. He just made it to the Cup finals with the most storied franchise in the league, playing for the team that gave him a fair shot right from the start when he wasn't even allowed to drive a car in most European countries, all while earning more money during his ELC than the majority of fans make in their lifetime, and he's still ok with showing everyone the proverbial middle finger on his way out? That's the message I'm getting and as a Habs fan, I don't like it one bit.

 

48 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

It will be interesting to see if the fans boo him should Bergevin match and KK's back here to play next season.

And I can guarantee you Carolina will do everything possible to make sure Necas is signed next year to avoid an offer sheet on him.

Pretty sure the fans will boo him, everything else would be a surprise to me. And if Carolina does everything possible to get Necas signed next year, I'd say there's a good chance it'll be be quite expensive given the precedent they just set.

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1. Kotkaniemi is not a bust. He may not be a star yet but the guy is young and developing and had success in two consecutive playoffs. He brings size, smarts, and skill to this game. He needs to work on his skating and finish a bit but he's got the tools. There is still potential for him to be a legit top 2 center and frankly we don't need him to be a 1C with Suzuki already here (although we do need to sign Suzuki to an extension ASAP to prevent his being offersheeted too).

2. Sure, we may have wanted to sign JK to 2.5-3M AAV for 2 years, but that's no longer an option. Now the choices are 6.1M AAV for one year or lose him for what likely amounts to a late 1st (with a 40-50% chance of becoming an NHLer and a 5% chance of becoming a top 6 player) and a 3rd (10-15% chance of becoming an NHLer). The odds are largely in favor of Kotkaniemi providing more value than the picks. That makes it an easy decision to keep JK. Deal him in a year if he doesn't pan out. But you keep him and you play him in the top 6 all year and frankly I think the odds are good that he puts up 45-50 points this season, maybe more.

3. You stop playing games with your young skill players. MB did this to Subban, Eller, Galchenyuk, etc. He made low-ball offers to try and keep them on bridge deals. If you have a projected core, sign it long-term. He needs to get Suzuki locked up and Caufield eventually and Romanov and so on.

4. The situation highlights the complete lack of center depth in the Habs organization. Yes, we have two good young centers and that's it. Evans is bottom 6. Poehling is unproven. Paquette is a fringe 4th liner. Vejdemo may be a bust. There isn't much there. MB found two guys but then he stopped working at center and thought he had it all solved. He let Danault walk without a replacement plan in place. He's concentrated on drafting young D men, but he's ignored the vision long-term at center. Soon, he'll have the same problem in goal and at RHD if he doesn't watch out. These things were all very predictable. Everyone's been talking about how we need LHD but that's been the case for 3 years. We don't need LHD as a primary need any more. We have guys coming up soon. What we need now in our prospect pool are centers and RHD.

5. Habs can look at this type of offer and make a move down the line to do something similar... alternative is MB shopping the 1st and 3rd over the next few days. He can't trade JK for a year after signing him, but he can certainly use the picks as a trade dangle. Maybe now he turns to Buffalo and says two 1st's next year, a 3rd, Drouin, and Struble, there's a package for Eichel. He should be working the phones hard now. That's the only way it makes sense not to match, is if MB can take those trade assets and somehow turn it into an alternative top 2 center. Best case for us would be to see MB land Eichel, Pettersson, or some other legit center using those picks as part of the package and let Carolina pay the 6.1M to Kotkaniemi.

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8 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 alternative is MB shopping the 1st and 3rd over the next few days. He can't trade JK for a year after signing him, but he can certainly use the picks as a trade dangle. Maybe now he turns to Buffalo and says two 1st's next year, a 3rd, Drouin, and Struble, there's a package for Eichel. He should be working the phones hard now. That's the only way it makes sense not to match, is if MB can take those trade assets and somehow turn it into an alternative top 2 center. Best case for us would be to see MB land Eichel, Pettersson, or some other legit center using those picks as part of the package and let Carolina pay the 6.1M to Kotkaniemi.

Same.  If he can make this move, then im ok with losing Kotkaniemi (we would have lost him anyway in a deal for Eichel or similar) but to lose him for picks when we just went to the cup finals and have guys like Price and Petry at the end of their windows makes zero sense. 

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3 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Same.  If he can make this move, then im ok with losing Kotkaniemi (we would have lost him anyway in a deal for Eichel or similar) but to lose him for picks when we just went to the cup finals and have guys like Price and Petry at the end of their windows makes zero sense. 

I just don't see the top guys coming here for various reasons. Dvorak I think would be an interesting player and someone I'd really like long-term. 

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20 minutes ago, maas_art said:

interesting to revisit Tom Dundon's words 2 years later: 

1.jpg

Yeah, making a fortune on subprime loans, selling used cars to people in need at outrageous interest rates probably says a lot about his philosophical values to begin with.

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

given what he's done (and I have to believe he's behind all of it), I would take MB's strategy over his any day

Well Dundon has already stated the offersheet was his idea/request. And we know from the media that he meddles a lot and that Waddell is a puppet figure as much as anything.

57 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

This comes down to MB mishandling his youth, mishandling his cap and lettting another team take advantage of both issues.

Despite this, it's clear MB bungled the situation. It sounds like he knew Carolina was coming after JK before and still didn't increase his offer to get it done on his own terms. Carolina was smart to sign Svechnikov before getting into this with JK, but they have Necas potentially exposed next year. I wonder if there's still room to go after Necas, Suzuki, and/or Jarvis in a trade here.

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6 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Well Dundon has already stated the offersheet was his idea/request. And we know from the media that he meddles a lot and that Waddell is a puppet figure as much as anything.

Despite this, it's clear MB bungled the situation. It sounds like he knew Carolina was coming after JK before and still didn't increase his offer to get it done on his own terms. Carolina was smart to sign Svechnikov before getting into this with JK, but they have Necas potentially exposed next year. I wonder if there's still room to go after Necas, Suzuki, and/or Jarvis in a trade here.

If we could somehow get Suzuki and Necas I would do it in a heart beat

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

2. Sure, we may have wanted to sign JK to 2.5-3M AAV for 2 years, but that's no longer an option. Now the choices are 6.1M AAV for one year or lose him for what likely amounts to a late 1st (with a 40-50% chance of becoming an NHLer and a 5% chance of becoming a top 6 player) and a 3rd (10-15% chance of becoming an NHLer). The odds are largely in favor of Kotkaniemi providing more value than the picks. That makes it an easy decision to keep JK. Deal him in a year if he doesn't pan out. But you keep him and you play him in the top 6 all year and frankly I think the odds are good that he puts up 45-50 points this season, maybe more.

I'm not into debating or anything but I think you'd need to adjust those numbers with this upcoming draft class, and although "likely" a late pick with their roster moves this off-season stranger things have happened

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Let him walk, he certainly proved he does not want to be here, and those thinking Carolina may not stumble and us ending up with a lottery pick think again. They just lost a top five deeman in the NHL, he was third in scoring on that team and cleary better then any other dee they had. Their goaldtending is suspect at best. And a tough division

They are however elite at the forward position but where does KK even fit in on Carolina. You have AHO, Necas, Stall, Trochek, up the middle, if he thinks he had trouble here finding icetime up the middle here good luck in Carolina. Like Bergevin, be careful what you wish for KK. I would say KK, have fun in Carolina.

Take the 1st and 3rd and move on. Were cleary not ready yet anyway for the big boys. Maybe things have a way of working out, but no way do you pay a 21 year old 6.1million based on hopes surely managment has a feel for this kid after 171 nhl games. He will get better for sure but how much??? Certainly would have to be a lot better at 6.1 million and i have seen that ..

 

 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Despite this, it's clear MB bungled the situation. It sounds like he knew Carolina was coming after JK before and still didn't increase his offer to get it done on his own terms. Carolina was smart to sign Svechnikov before getting into this with JK, but they have Necas potentially exposed next year. I wonder if there's still room to go after Necas, Suzuki, and/or Jarvis in a trade here.

If i had to bet, I would say the most likely scenarios will be:
 

Option 1) 25%  -  we trade with carolina, so they keep their picks but we are compensated with players. I think Trocheck is the most likely candidate, with maybe a prospect coming back.  Its possible they bite on a guy like Suzuki or Jarvis +  but its tough to say.

Option 2) 35% - we resign JK - but then probably make his life a living hell and unless he just explodes next year we probably lower his value so much we wish we got that 1st and 3rd for him.

Option 3) 25% - we dont match, we take those picks & package with with a winger & get a replacement (hopefully upgrade) over JK.

Option 4) 15% - expect the unexpected. 

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26 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

Let him walk, he certainly proved he does not want to be here, and those thinking Carolina may not stumble and us ending up with a lottery pick think again. They just lost a top five deeman in the NHL, he was third in scoring on that team and cleary better then any other dee they had. Their goaldtending is suspect at best. And a tough division

Not pointing at you specifically but ive heard a lot of people mention the loss of Hamilton but no one seems to be talking about the addition of Deangelo.   Dont get me wrong, Deangelo is a headcase and potentially a locker room problem but the guy is uber talented on the ice. He has almost identical offensive stats to Hamilton and actually better than Dougie at that age. It may be a colossal fail but its not outside the realm of possibility that they dont feel the lost of hamilton that much.
 

30 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

They are however elite at the forward position but where does KK even fit in on Carolina. You have AHO, Necas, Stall, Trochek, up the middle, if he thinks he had trouble here finding icetime up the middle here good luck in Carolina. Like Bergevin, be careful what you wish for KK. I would say KK, have fun in Carolina.

This is the real question I have.  "What are they thinking?"  Maybe they want to convert him to a winger & have some sort of Finnish line with JK - Aho - Teravainen or something. Who knows.    I certainly agree that while its incredibly unlikely he lives up to that $6m contract, its even less likely he'll do it as a Cane fighting for ice time with that group.

 

33 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

Take the 1st and 3rd and move on. Were cleary not ready yet anyway for the big boys. Maybe things have a way of working out, but no way do you pay a 21 year old 6.1million based on hopes surely managment has a feel for this kid after 171 nhl games. He will get better for sure but how much??? Certainly would have to be a lot better at 6.1 million and i have seen that ..

I feel like MB's first choice is to take the 1st & 3rd and flip them (maybe with a winger or even  players + more picks) and get a true, young upgrade over JK. I dont think MB will be happy with this deal. Not just for the ramifications on the team's cap but also because it makes him look foolish & we know he does not like that. 

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5 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I feel like MB's first choice is to take the 1st & 3rd and flip them (maybe with a winger or even  players + more picks) and get a true, young upgrade over JK. I dont think MB will be happy with this deal. Not just for the ramifications on the team's cap but also because it makes him look foolish & we know he does not like that. 

Especially when he doesn't have a plant to hide behind.:lol:

This has not been a good summer for him starting with the draft. Any support he garnished from that trip to the finals has been seriously eroded IMO.

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Let's turn this around... imagine the Habs could go after one of the following

- Robert Thomas

- Trevor Zegras

- Gabe Vilardi

- Martin Necas

- Oliver Wahlstrom

- Noah Dobson

- Evan Bouchard

- Kaapo Kakko

and give up a 1st rounder in a year where they're expected to make the playoffs and a 3rd rounder. Now maybe some of those players are better than Kotkaniemi and maybe some are worse. But they're all in the same neighborhood. Only Thomas has really proven more at the NHL level than Kotkaniemi. They're all drafted within a year of JK and some of them were drafted lower down in the same draft year. Some have maybe a bit more potential, but JK himself still has a lot of potential and we can't keep forgetting that he's only been around 3 years and that he was young for his draft year. These other guys are all in the same ballpark as far as potential upside and pedigree.

So you have the option of acquiring one for a 1st and a 3rd. Are you doing it? I'd do it. Almost all those guys are worth that price. Again, remember that a late first is a toss up (literally a 50-50 based on data from the past decade about how likely they are to make the NHL). The 3rd rounder is a crapshoot with maybe a 15% chance of playing in the NHL. The odds that one single late 1st rounder ever becomes a top 6 center is low.

Think about how many years MB was clamoring to try and find top 6 centers. He's ranted on and on about how you have to draft them high in the draft because otherwise they don't fall into your lap. You have a guy with that potential, you don't give him away for low-value draft picks.

 

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20 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Let's turn this around... imagine the Habs could go after one of the following

- Robert Thomas

- Trevor Zegras

- Gabe Vilardi

- Martin Necas

- Oliver Wahlstrom

- Noah Dobson

- Evan Bouchard

- Kaapo Kakko

and give up a 1st rounder in a year where they're expected to make the playoffs and a 3rd rounder. Now maybe some of those players are better than Kotkaniemi and maybe some are worse. But they're all in the same neighborhood. Only Thomas has really proven more at the NHL level than Kotkaniemi. They're all drafted within a year of JK and some of them were drafted lower down in the same draft year. Some have maybe a bit more potential, but JK himself still has a lot of potential and we can't keep forgetting that he's only been around 3 years and that he was young for his draft year. These other guys are all in the same ballpark as far as potential upside and pedigree.

So you have the option of acquiring one for a 1st and a 3rd. Are you doing it? I'd do it. Almost all those guys are worth that price. Again, remember that a late first is a toss up (literally a 50-50 based on data from the past decade about how likely they are to make the NHL). The 3rd rounder is a crapshoot with maybe a 15% chance of playing in the NHL. The odds that one single late 1st rounder ever becomes a top 6 center is low.

Think about how many years MB was clamoring to try and find top 6 centers. He's ranted on and on about how you have to draft them high in the draft because otherwise they don't fall into your lap. You have a guy with that potential, you don't give him away for low-value draft picks.

 

You keep saying a late first.... things have changed for the Canes Dougie is gone the goalies are meh! what makes them so sure to finish high in the standings? the forwards? yeah they can score but will they be as good without Hamilton? who knows. The other factor here as well is we don't know if KK even wants to be here he has been bumped around a bit by the team they seem to feel he needed some tough love I guess keeping him may be a non starter. also why not take the pics add a player and perhaps one of our picks and shoot for something better who knows what might be cooking!

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1) Judging by Carolina's offersheet structure to KK, its obvious that MB's offersheet to Aho impacted Carolina HARD.  

2) You 100% can't blame KK for taking the money.

3) You can't blame Habs fans for making KK's life as miserable as they can from now on, Hab, Cane, or wherever else he ends up down the road.

4) Montreal's personnel deployment during the playoffs was good enough to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  
Sitting a 20yo for a more experienced veteran from time to time happens.  

5) Thankfully we didn't re-sign Danault, so we have the ability to keep KK if MB can't find a suitable alternative.

6) My preferences in order: a) KK leaves and we somehow get Petterrson b) KK leaves and we somehow get Eichel c) KK stays at $6.1m d) KK leaves and we do the best patch job possible

7) To maas_art, nice quote find! That's MB for you, changing hearts and minds :)

8) The Canes lineup with KK in it, doesn't look that impressive.  The problem is Brind'Amour is a stud coach and can get everything and more out of that lineup. 
I expect Carolina's 1st round pick to be around 14-18.

All in all, if MB can do better than KK, he's trying to now.  If he can't, I think he should sign KK to $6.1m vs. take the picks.

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40 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Let's turn this around... imagine the Habs could go after one of the following

- Robert Thomas

- Trevor Zegras

- Gabe Vilardi

- Martin Necas

- Oliver Wahlstrom

- Noah Dobson

- Evan Bouchard

- Kaapo Kakko

and give up a 1st rounder in a year where they're expected to make the playoffs and a 3rd rounder. Now maybe some of those players are better than Kotkaniemi and maybe some are worse. But they're all in the same neighborhood. Only Thomas has really proven more at the NHL level than Kotkaniemi. They're all drafted within a year of JK and some of them were drafted lower down in the same draft year. Some have maybe a bit more potential, but JK himself still has a lot of potential and we can't keep forgetting that he's only been around 3 years and that he was young for his draft year. These other guys are all in the same ballpark as far as potential upside and pedigree.

So you have the option of acquiring one for a 1st and a 3rd. Are you doing it? I'd do it. Almost all those guys are worth that price. Again, remember that a late first is a toss up (literally a 50-50 based on data from the past decade about how likely they are to make the NHL). The 3rd rounder is a crapshoot with maybe a 15% chance of playing in the NHL. The odds that one single late 1st rounder ever becomes a top 6 center is low.

Think about how many years MB was clamoring to try and find top 6 centers. He's ranted on and on about how you have to draft them high in the draft because otherwise they don't fall into your lap. You have a guy with that potential, you don't give him away for low-value draft picks.

I think there's a 50/50 chance its not a late pick and I wouldn't make the trade if it was for 6.1 million. Players are only as good as their cap hit. What I mean is its talent per dollar spent. So now you're hoping to develop a guy who might be good enough for his contract... that's just not how it works, there's no real payoff to it anymore. I don't want McDavid if its at 20-25 million a year, I flat out don't want the best player in hockey if he's making twice the salary he's making now. Money changes things and KK is now attached to 6.1 million dollars. There's opportunity cost by matching, its just not worth it anymore

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I'm fine with taking the picks IF Bergevin can turn the situation into Eichel (assuming he's healthy) or Pettersson. Those are big IFS though. The likeliest scenarios are the easiest ones. Kotkaniemi is a Hurricane and we get some disappointing draft picks. Or Kotkaniemi is an overpaid Hab and the crowd probably boos him for a little while.

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23 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I think there's a 50/50 chance its not a late pick and I wouldn't make the trade if it was for 6.1 million. Players are only as good as their cap hit. What I mean is its talent per dollar spent. So now you're hoping to develop a guy who might be good enough for his contract... that's just not how it works, there's no real payoff to it anymore. I don't want McDavid if its at 20-25 million a year, I flat out don't want the best player in hockey if he's making twice the salary he's making now. Money changes things and KK is now attached to 6.1 million dollars. There's opportunity cost by matching, its just not worth it anymore

Well said, “talent per dollar spent”. 

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3 hours ago, caperns61 said:

Let him walk, he certainly proved he does not want to be here, and those thinking Carolina may not stumble and us ending up with a lottery pick think again. They just lost a top five deeman in the NHL, he was third in scoring on that team and cleary better then any other dee they had. Their goaldtending is suspect at best. And a tough division

They are however elite at the forward position but where does KK even fit in on Carolina. You have AHO, Necas, Stall, Trochek, up the middle, if he thinks he had trouble here finding icetime up the middle here good luck in Carolina. Like Bergevin, be careful what you wish for KK. I would say KK, have fun in Carolina.

Take the 1st and 3rd and move on. Were cleary not ready yet anyway for the big boys. Maybe things have a way of working out, but no way do you pay a 21 year old 6.1million based on hopes surely managment has a feel for this kid after 171 nhl games. He will get better for sure but how much??? Certainly would have to be a lot better at 6.1 million and i have seen that ..

 

 

(1) In JK's mind, after being benched in the finals, the Habs didn't want HIM there.

(2) I'm sure with all that elite talent the Canes could easily trade one of those elite forwards for help elsewhere. 

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