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Christian Dvorak


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2 minutes ago, maas_art said:

 For a first-round pick in 2022 and a second-round pick in 2024.

Not great, but not horrible either. Dont mind the spreading out of the picks. 

I don’t mind this trade - Dvorak could have some upside here and the cap value and term at $4.5 is acceptable- Bergevin had to save face some how 

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Another sorry over-payment trade-off for MB. He has a tendency of selling guys when their value is low and then overpaying to replace them.

- Dealt Subban straight up for Weber when Subban had more value based on all stats and contract terms.

- Dealt Pacioretty at lowest value and lucked out with the prospect in Suzuki that he wasn't actually targeting as well as Tatar as a throw-in that Vegas asked him to take.

- Dealt Galchenyuk for Domi when the former should/could have had higher value if used as a center and not on the 4th line behind Dwight King and Martinsen, then dealt a centerman in Domi for a winger in Anderson and should have likely recouped more value for dealing the center in the trade (even though I liked this last trade at the time it was made), all the while giving up an extra 3rd rounder in the deal too.

- Dealt Eller for two 2nd's then acquired a lesser player in Shaw for two 2nd's in a more valuable draft year (which TT said he would have used on Debrincat and Sam Girard)

- Gave up the extra conditional 2nd in the Drouin for Sergachev deal.

- Overpaid for Eric Staal compared to what Buffalo got back for other players at the same deadline.

- Acquired John Scott for Jared Tinordi for reasons he couldn't divulge

- Now lets JK walk for a (likely late) 1st and a 3rd, then acquires the lesser player in Dvorak for a 1st and 2nd. In what world is Dvorak worth more than Kotkaniemi? I already posted all the stats yesterday that give a strong advantage to Kotkaniemi already being better, never mind the fact he's 4 years younger. JFresh from twitter just posted that Dvorak last year was LAST or next last among Coyotes forwards for zone entries, goals off rush, plays to the slot, etc. In short, he sucked at most advanced stats.

So now MB has to sit back and do what he does after most of these trades: hope that the Habs have ruined the player they dealt enough so that they don't break out with their new team. He has a bad habit of overpaying when it comes to throwing in extra picks or picks of greater value. He has a bad habit of trading/losing guys at their lowest trade value. I think he's done both those things again here.

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1 minute ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Really wanted two 1st round picks. But I’m pretty alright with this. So is the 1st conditional? I read something like they get whichever pick is the better of the two, except if it’s a top 10, is that correct?

Yeah, ARizona gets the better of the two but it becomes worse of the two if either is top 10.

So if we have the 14th and 26th picks, they get 14. if we have 9th and 18th, they get 18th. If we have 1st and 3rd, they 3rd.

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FWIW, I believe the Habs will end up with a lottery pick and the Canes will not. So worse-case scenario here is that we end up with the 11th overall and the 32nd overall and lose the 11th. If both us and Carolina miss the playoffs, worst-case scenario in terms of what's lost would be if we end up with the 1st and 2nd overall and lose the 2nd overall pick.

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I guess if you look at the whole thing as if we traded Kotkaneimi for Dvorak and a 2nd, it’s a pretty solid win. I don’t think before this you could have traded Kotkaneimi for Dvorak straight up, let alone getting that 2nd added. So from a trade perspective it’s a win. Not letting Carolina bully us into destroying our pay structure is a win. Win-win

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2 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

I guess if you look at the whole thing as if we traded Kotkaneimi for Dvorak and a 2nd, it’s a pretty solid win. I don’t think before this you could have traded Kotkaneimi for Dvorak straight up, let alone getting that 2nd added. So from a trade perspective it’s a win. Not letting Carolina bully us into destroying our pay structure is a win. Win-win

well its like trading KK and a 2nd, for Dvorak and a 3rd 

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28 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

Well, not how I envisioned it but we're probably better now than we were yesterday.

I also agree. I know the advanced stats darlings will say JK was better. but right now, Sept 21 I like Dvorak more. He reminds me a bit of Plekanec when i watched him the last couple of years.  He's locked up on a reasonable cap hit for 4 years - and while he is older than JK they will both be UFA at the same time.  No complaints.

Im sad to see JK go because i really like the kid but id be lying if said i wasnt concerned with his development the last couple of years.

I guess Poehling is going to get a much longer look this year... 

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Arpon Basu basically just summed up the transactions as this:

Habs essentially traded Kotkaniemi and a 2nd round pick

FOR

Dvorak, 3rd round pick, and a possible move down of 1st round picks.

 

If I had proposed that deal to anyone here a week ago, who would have taken that? Who would have turned JK into Dvorak AND had two top-end-of-the-draft picks potentially end up worse as well. I wouldn't have even made the trade straight up, never mind the picks getting worse. Here are a few other guys from the same draft year as Dvorak who are interesting comparisons:

- Adrian Kempe was a late 1st round pick in the year Dvorak was a late 2nd. He has 132 points to Dvorak's 146. Probably similar trade value. Would you give up a 1st and 2nd for Kempe?

- Kevin Labanc is a RW and not a center but has 177 pts to Dvorak's 146. He's on a similar value contract. Worth a 1st and 2nd?

- Victor Arvidsson has put up 239 pts in his career and has two 30+ goal seasons. Now he's 2 years older than the rest of the draft class in 2014, but he's also a superior player to Dvorak and it's not even really that close. He just got traded this off-season for a 2nd and a 3rd. No 1st rounder.

- Jared McCann was a 1st rounder and has 155 pts to Dvorak's 146 and has been traded a couple of times. He was just swapped for a mid-level prospect and 7th rounder and then claimed in the ED. Hard to envision anyone was paying a 1st and a 2nd for him.

- Nick Schmaltz was also a 1st rounder and has 182 points in his career.

- Jakub Vrana is another 1st rounder and has 168 pts in his career. HE was just packaged with a 1st for Anthony Mantha.

- Nick Ritchie is a 1st with 137 career points.

- And Sam Bennett, a top 5 choice from that draft year who has 155 points in his career and is maybe one of the better comparables for Dvorak... just dealt this year with a 6th rounder for a mid-level prospect and 2nd rounder.

 

So you look at guys from the same draft year as Dvorak and you see the ones with comparable point totals and they really don't look like a bunch you would/should be giving up a 1st rounder for. The advanced stats suggest Dvorak is not a strong player and he doesn't look like a player who will ever be more than a middle 6 center who can score 15-23 goals. Less good than Kotkaniemi now and less room to grow going forward. JK will have issues getting ice time in Carolina, so that in itself might hold him back and make this day look less bad than it could have, but Bergevin got burned here with what he gave up.

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22 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Another sorry over-payment trade-off for MB. He has a tendency of selling guys when their value is low and then overpaying to replace them.

- Dealt Subban straight up for Weber when Subban had more value based on all stats and contract terms.

- Dealt Pacioretty at lowest value and lucked out with the prospect in Suzuki that he wasn't actually targeting as well as Tatar as a throw-in that Vegas asked him to take.

- Dealt Galchenyuk for Domi when the former should/could have had higher value if used as a center and not on the 4th line behind Dwight King and Martinsen, then dealt a centerman in Domi for a winger in Anderson and should have likely recouped more value for dealing the center in the trade (even though I liked this last trade at the time it was made), all the while giving up an extra 3rd rounder in the deal too.

- Dealt Eller for two 2nd's then acquired a lesser player in Shaw for two 2nd's in a more valuable draft year (which TT said he would have used on Debrincat and Sam Girard)

- Gave up the extra conditional 2nd in the Drouin for Sergachev deal.

- Overpaid for Eric Staal compared to what Buffalo got back for other players at the same deadline.

- Acquired John Scott for Jared Tinordi for reasons he couldn't divulge

- Now lets JK walk for a (likely late) 1st and a 3rd, then acquires the lesser player in Dvorak for a 1st and 2nd. In what world is Dvorak worth more than Kotkaniemi? I already posted all the stats yesterday that give a strong advantage to Kotkaniemi already being better, never mind the fact he's 4 years younger. JFresh from twitter just posted that Dvorak last year was LAST or next last among Coyotes forwards for zone entries, goals off rush, plays to the slot, etc. In short, he sucked at most advanced stats.

So now MB has to sit back and do what he does after most of these trades: hope that the Habs have ruined the player they dealt enough so that they don't break out with their new team. He has a bad habit of overpaying when it comes to throwing in extra picks or picks of greater value. He has a bad habit of trading/losing guys at their lowest trade value. I think he's done both those things again here.

Sounds like you hit every nail. bergebin's hit & misses in one location.  If you aren't frustrated by this,  then you must be a supreme optimist. I don't mean you, BigTed3. Just "you" in general. 

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10 minutes ago, habsisme said:

well its like trading KK and a 2nd, for Dvorak and a 3rd 

This ignores the fact we could also potentially be moving down as much as 21 spots in the draft order in the first round. Imagine this past draft if we had wanted to move up from pick 31 to pick 10. What would it have cost us? That's the equivalent draft capital we might also have lost in the exchange of 1st rounders.

7 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I also agree. I know the advanced stats darlings will say JK was better. but right now, Sept 21 I like Dvorak more. He reminds me a bit of Plekanec when i watched him the last couple of years.  He's locked up on a reasonable cap hit for 4 years - and while he is older than JK they will both be UFA at the same time.  No complaints.

Im sad to see JK go because i really like the kid but id be lying if said i wasnt concerned with his development the last couple of years.

I guess Poehling is going to get a much longer look this year... 

I think the assumption being made is that Kotkaniemi will be making 6M going forward. He's getting 6.1M for one year on a deal that was a clear overpayment in order to make the offersheet have a chance of working. If Carolina offers JK 3M a year, then MB easily matches. There are two scenarios for JK for his next contract: either he shines this season as a top 2 center (not a given he gets this chance in Carolina) and no one flinches if he's offered 5.5-6M a year on a long-term deal, or he has a similar year next year to this past one, in which case he'll probably get 3.5-4M a year on his next deal and be making less than Dvorak. If we had kept Kotkaniemi, assuming he wanted to stay, we'd either then be looking at a clearly better player than Dvorak or paying a younger player with potential less money (or possibly trading JK on our own terms). I think it's a mistake to consider comparing contracts when comparing Dvorak and Kotkaniemi, as it's entirely possible Carolina ends up paying JK less money over the next 4 years than we pay Dvorak over that time.

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Works for me! I see KK as a bust I really don't care for all the long term potential talk, he has had enough games to show us this mystical talent that he has still waiting...... I predict Dvorak will do a much better job for us than KK he is pretty good at faceoffs and on a team where hockey actually matters I also predict he will do better than he has in the past! and to top it all off he won't spend most of the game falling down. I really don't care who got drafted where it is of no importance it is what they bring to the ice that counts.

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Just now, BigTed3 said:

This ignores the fact we could also potentially be moving down as much as 21 spots in the draft order in the first round. Imagine this past draft if we had wanted to move up from pick 31 to pick 10. What would it have cost us? That's the equivalent draft capital we might also have lost in the exchange of 1st rounders.

I think the assumption being made is that Kotkaniemi will be making 6M going forward. He's getting 6.1M for one year on a deal that was a clear overpayment in order to make the offersheet have a chance of working. If Carolina offers JK 3M a year, then MB easily matches. There are two scenarios for JK for his next contract: either he shines this season as a top 2 center (not a given he gets this chance in Carolina) and no one flinches if he's offered 5.5-6M a year on a long-term deal, or he has a similar year next year to this past one, in which case he'll probably get 3.5-4M a year on his next deal and be making less than Dvorak. If we had kept Kotkaniemi, assuming he wanted to stay, we'd either then be looking at a clearly better player than Dvorak or paying a younger player with potential less money (or possibly trading JK on our own terms). I think it's a mistake to consider comparing contracts when comparing Dvorak and Kotkaniemi, as it's entirely possible Carolina ends up paying JK less money over the next 4 years than we pay Dvorak over that time.

ah yes, you're right, although this is also the possibility that we move up, if Carolina ends up being a top 10 pick. Could have two picks in the lottery 

yeah I think Dvorak is the better player now than KK BUT I would have prefered to keep KK given he has the higher ceiling but given the circumstances of the offer, I think this ended up working out okay, I'm pretty happy 

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Dom Lusczcyszyn at the Athletic just posted a bunch of advanced stats and projections for Dvorak, and he states that the best comparable if you look at stats would be Kyle Turris circa 2015-16 (so the same age Dvorak is now)... from that time, Turris put up seasons of 27, 16, 7, 9, and 2 goals. Other comparables he lists with similar stats and projections to Dvorak at the same age: Jussi Jokinen, Matt Moulson, Tuomo Ruttu, Adam Henrique, and Jiri Tlusty.

I'm not saying Dvorak isn't a good acquisition. I think he's an upgrade at the 3C spot and could play 2C in a pinch. But if you didn't think JK was a top 6 center, then Dvorak isn't one either. He's not worth a 1st and the data suggest there are red flags here about how well he'll do over the next 4 years. I suspect he may have a decent year next season and then peter off.

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6 minutes ago, habsisme said:

ah yes, you're right, although this is also the possibility that we move up, if Carolina ends up being a top 10 pick. Could have two picks in the lottery 

yeah I think Dvorak is the better player now than KK BUT I would have prefered to keep KK given he has the higher ceiling but given the circumstances of the offer, I think this ended up working out okay, I'm pretty happy 

Yes, if Carolina finishes out of the playoffs and ends up with a top 10 pick in their slot while the Habs have a lower pick, then we would have moved up compared to if we had matched the JK offer. But then you could still argue that Dvorak is not worth a 1st rounder and we'd have been better off just keeping both 1st's.

In any case, I think the odds of Carolina being a lottery team AND the Habs making the playoffs is not high. Anything's possible, but it's not a likely scenario right now.

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Arpon Basu also points out that the deal in place prevents the Habs from trading their other 1st rounder in a deal until the conditions of the trade are determined. So likely they won't be able to use that pick at the trade deadline and would have to wait until after the season and draft lottery. More handicapping ourselves here... not sure if they could make another contingent deal for "the lower of the two 1st's..."

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This guy is going to fit in great in Mtl I have watched him play for a while now and I think he is going to really help our PP and on faceoffs. he is not afraid to go to the front of the net or crash right through it to get a goal! the term we have him for and the price are both good no hockey reason not to like this deal.

 

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3 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Arpon Basu also points out that the deal in place prevents the Habs from trading their other 1st rounder in a deal until the conditions of the trade are determined. So likely they won't be able to use that pick at the trade deadline and would have to wait until after the season and draft lottery. More handicapping ourselves here... not sure if they could make another contingent deal for "the lower of the two 1st's..."

yeah I've seen teams do that all the time. They can still easily trade it

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  • H_T_L changed the title to Christian Dvorak

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