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Christian Dvorak


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14 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

This guy is going to fit in great in Mtl I have watched him play for a while now and I think he is going to really help our PP and on faceoffs. he is not afraid to go to the front of the net or crash right through it to get a goal! the term we have him for and the price are both good no hockey reason not to like this deal.

 

Yea people that have not watched him just dont get it. I do not get all the complaints this trade makes us better than we were yesterday in more ways than one. This guy is a great #2 center and signed at 4.5 for 4 years!!

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2 minutes ago, AH64 said:

Yea people that have not watched him just dont get it. I do not get all the complaints this trade makes us better than we were yesterday in more ways than one. This guy is a great #2 center and signed at 4.5 for 4 years!!

Yep folks just want MB gone and KK was a well liked guy here so there is a soft spot for him. I feel we are a better team today as well and the term is just right. the one issue for me is that this was allowed to happen, there is some short sightedness in the front office or perhaps there was some insider dealings with KK's agent and the Canes because it seems like they were talking about a trade before it all happened. In the end I am stoked I feel we are in really good shape for next year!

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 if Montreal had kept KK there would be a lot of people pointing out that it was too much money for 1 year , was putting  the cap structure in a bind and was a  risky deal given the fact Carolina was willing to pay him with term down the road when the contract was up ( and then the Suzuki factor next year )...the ship sailed on KK because we weren't getting him back anyway ... I wish Dvorak well with the Habs ...hope he has a super year ...time to move on 

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FWIW, I'm all for acquiring Dvorak to replace Danault. He fills that role of being a two-way center with perhaps less shutdown ability but better offensive skill on the PP. The problem in that case is that if you pencil in Dvorak for Danault, then we essentially lost a 21-year old top 3 pick with great advanced stats for nothing and downgraded some picks along the way.

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10 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

And if both are top-10 picks, then what happens? Arizona just gets the worse of the two picks, I assume?

Scenarios:

 

- Both Mtl and Car miss the playoffs: in this case, there's a reasonable chance at least one of the picks is top 10, so we would lose the lower of the two (ie if the picks were 3 and 5, we'd lose 5; if it were 3 and 14, we'd lose 14). If both picks end up being lottery picks that fall outside the top 10, then we lose the better of the two (so if we had 13 and 15, for example, we'd lose 13 and retain 15). In this scenario, it could mean we gave up a strong lottery pick for Dvorak, but the net loss in draft position between the lost pick and the retained pick would be in our favor or minimally hurtful.

- Only one of the two teams makes the post-season (IMO the most likely scenario): in this case, Mtl retains the lottery pick if it's top 10 and Arizona gets the worse pick. But if the lottery pick ends up being 11 to 16, then we lose that one and keep only the later pick (this could be a devastating drop as bad as losing #11 and picking #32 instead).

- Both teams make the playoffs: in this case, Arizona gets the better pick. If we have 17 and 32, they get 17 and we keep 32. If we have 20 and 22, they get 20 and we keep 22. So still a possibility of losing up to 15 spots in the rank order in the trade-off, but not as hurtful as scenario 2 where the lost pick is better.

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26 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, I'm all for acquiring Dvorak to replace Danault. He fills that role of being a two-way center with perhaps less shutdown ability but better offensive skill on the PP. The problem in that case is that if you pencil in Dvorak for Danault, then we essentially lost a 21-year old top 3 pick with great advanced stats for nothing and downgraded some picks along the way.

That 21 yr old top 3 pick was only a top 3 pick because Montreal picked him there based on a positional need . If I recall he was ranked later in the draft . 
 

either way no worries . How many times has a Montreal first round draft pick actually developed into a top flight player . Not too often 🤣.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

That 21 yr old top 3 pick was only a top 3 pick because Montreal picked him there based on a positional need . If I recall he was ranked later in the draft . 
 

either way no worries . How many times has a Montreal first round draft pick actually developed into a top flight player . Not too often 🤣.

 

 

This is fact.  So, did we really lose? I would say no.

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1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

Going forward can Montreal draft the best player available instead of drafting some teenager and hoping that in 5  years he will be the player that they envisioned . 
 

thsnks 

 

This.  I think that BPA should always be the choice in at least the first 10 picks, if not the first round altogether.  You can always trade that player if you dont have a need. Drafting a "project" 3rd overall was always a very risky move to take. 

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46 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, I'm all for acquiring Dvorak to replace Danault. He fills that role of being a two-way center with perhaps less shutdown ability but better offensive skill on the PP. The problem in that case is that if you pencil in Dvorak for Danault, then we essentially lost a 21-year old top 3 pick with great advanced stats for nothing and downgraded some picks along the way.

At this stage im not certain Kotkaneimi is better than Poehling, who had very similar stats to him this last year vs. JK's stint in the AHL.   Now, you can certainly argue that if thats the case, we should have traded Kotkaniemi & would have almost certainly gotten more than a 1st and 3rd for him, but once that OS attached a $6.1m salary to him, i dont think he's the same player, value-wise as he was at $2 or $3m.   Even if the Canes have an extension worked out with him, you have to figure its probably around $4m now which is possibly high (with term) for a guy who still may not reach the potential we all hoped he would. 

17 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

That 21 yr old top 3 pick was only a top 3 pick because Montreal picked him there based on a positional need . If I recall he was ranked later in the draft . 
either way no worries . How many times has a Montreal first round draft pick actually developed into a top flight player . Not too often 🤣

He was ranked all over but most experts had him somewhere between 10th and 20th.  That said, Arizona (5th pick) said they would have taken him if we hadnt. 

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33 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, I'm all for acquiring Dvorak to replace Danault. He fills that role of being a two-way center with perhaps less shutdown ability but better offensive skill on the PP. The problem in that case is that if you pencil in Dvorak for Danault, then we essentially lost a 21-year old top 3 pick with great advanced stats for nothing and downgraded some picks along the way.

That’s a horrible comparison on Danault and mixing apples with oranges to this discussion. Danault was a financial decision to replace his $5.5 million 6 year commitment with the choice of filling his role with Paquette or Poehling - if you figure 2 of those are platooning at $1.6m combined cost for a C role then we saved $3.9m in cap room to put toward Hoffman 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, claremont said:

That’s a horrible comparison on Danault and mixing apples with oranges to this discussion. Danault was a financial decision to replace his $5.5 million 6 year commitment with the choice of filling his role with Paquette or Poehling - if you figure 2 of those are platooning at $1.6m combined cost for a C role then we saved $3.9m in cap room to put toward Hoffman

Not sure I understand your post. I'm fine with the Habs having moved on from Danault, he wasn't worth the money he wanted. My post was stating that I'm good with Dvorak filling the role Danault filled last year... getting the tough match-ups, taking big draws, playing the PK and although Dvorak may not be as good as a shutdown yet, he can play the PP too. So all in all, I think you can feel comfortable that the Habs let Danault walk knowing they have Dvorak to fill that roster spot.

The problem in all this is that Danault, like Dvorak, is a 3C on a good team or a poor man's 2C. If your top 2 are Suzuki-Dvorak and your 3C and 4C are two of Evans, Poehling, and Paquette, that's a lot of guys being asked to have career years to make that work. We're almost back to where we've been for the past decade without much depth or top-end skill down the middle. With Suzuki-Kotkaniemi, you had two guys who could have potentially been talented enough to be your true 1C and 2C. They weren't quite there yet, but at least the potential was there. With Dvorak, he's more of a sure thing right now, but the top end is not as high.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Dom Lusczcyszyn at the Athletic just posted a bunch of advanced stats and projections for Dvorak, and he states that the best comparable if you look at stats would be Kyle Turris circa 2015-16 (so the same age Dvorak is now)... from that time, Turris put up seasons of 27, 16, 7, 9, and 2 goals. Other comparables he lists with similar stats and projections to Dvorak at the same age: Jussi Jokinen, Matt Moulson, Tuomo Ruttu, Adam Henrique, and Jiri Tlusty.

I'm not saying Dvorak isn't a good acquisition. I think he's an upgrade at the 3C spot and could play 2C in a pinch. But if you didn't think JK was a top 6 center, then Dvorak isn't one either. He's not worth a 1st and the data suggest there are red flags here about how well he'll do over the next 4 years. I suspect he may have a decent year next season and then peter off.

Kyle Turris is a perfect example of a 3rd overall pick (KK!)  that looked liked he would have some ceiling potential and has flamed out - you see what I’m saying on the comparison - I’m sure Turris had advanced stats at the time? 

jokinen - 6th round - 192nd, Moulson - 9th round - 263rd, Ruttu - 1st round 9th overall, Tllusty 13th overall - they’re all wingers - you’ve said it before centers don’t grow on trees and most teams will overpay or overdraft - the above comparisons are severely flawed 

What’s wrong with Centre Adam Henrique ? He’s still producing approx 20 goals per season 

Dvorak played with some strong players in London, and is only 25. I’ll be interested to see how he does with a Toffoli , Hoffman or Anderson on his wings before projecting downside. 

 

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20 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Not sure I understand your post. I'm fine with the Habs having moved on from Danault, he wasn't worth the money he wanted. My post was stating that I'm good with Dvorak filling the role Danault filled last year... getting the tough match-ups, taking big draws, playing the PK and although Dvorak may not be as good as a shutdown yet, he can play the PP too. So all in all, I think you can feel comfortable that the Habs let Danault walk knowing they have Dvorak to fill that roster spot.

The problem in all this is that Danault, like Dvorak, is a 3C on a good team or a poor man's 2C. If your top 2 are Suzuki-Dvorak and your 3C and 4C are two of Evans, Poehling, and Paquette, that's a lot of guys being asked to have career years to make that work. We're almost back to where we've been for the past decade without much depth or top-end skill down the middle. With Suzuki-Kotkaniemi, you had two guys who could have potentially been talented enough to be your true 1C and 2C. They weren't quite there yet, but at least the potential was there. With Dvorak, he's more of a sure thing right now, but the top end is not as high.

I agree, I said early on that this offersheet hurts the Habs. MB almost exactly what I was hoping to do (including prtecting the pick if its top 10) but in the end we still come out like losers. We are the same or slightly better today, but we lost a whole lot of potential, and that counts. Given that they made the OS, I  like where we ended up though

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  • H_T_L changed the title to Christian Dvorak

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-news-rumors-waite-norlinder-dvorak/

What to Expect from Dvorak

Since he was acquired from the Arizona Coyotes, fans have wondered what to expect from Dvorak this season. His former NHL coach, Rick Tocchet, had this to say of the 25-year-old center:

“He’s a really good 200-foot player, he plays his own end very well. When he’s at his best, he scores goals around the net. If you watch a lot of his goals, it’s 15 feet out. He’s got that quick release, but he also gets a lot of rebounds and tip goals, too. Those are important goals. Those are hard to find, those type of players that are willing to go into the paint, into the middle of the ice a lot.”

–Rick Tocchet (Marc Antoine Godin, What the Canadiens should expect from Christian Dvorak: Breaking down his game with former coach Rick Tocchet,The Athletic, 13/9/21.)

The Canadiens have been looking for that style of play, especially on the power play, players who are willing to get to the front of the net and create problems for the opposition. He has also has experienced being matched up against some of the league’s best centres, like Anze Kopitar and Nathan MacKinnon, which means he should fill the role left by Danault. Hopefully, Dvorak can ease the defensive burden on Suzuki while providing more offence than Danault. If he can meet that high demand, then this trade will be applauded.

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