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Nick Suzuki


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1 minute ago, HabsRuleForever said:

8 year extension 

7.875

I don't LOVE this. It's good he's locked up for 8 years but I feel it's a bit of an overpayment for what he's done up to now. Would have liked a bit more of a discount since he doesn't have this prove it year

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5 minutes ago, habsisme said:

7.875

I don't LOVE this. It's good he's locked up for 8 years but I feel it's a bit of an overpayment for what he's done up to now. Would have liked a bit more of a discount since he doesn't have this prove it year

Its an 8 year deal though. You dont get 22 year old 1st line centres to sign for 8 years unless you pump that AAV.   I am sure they could have signed him to a bridge deal for less, or even 5 or 6 years but we're paying for those last few years & considering he'll be in his early 30s then I think it will be very very good value over the term but we shall see. 

2 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

I think this is a fantastic signing, I don't mind the term or the financials pretty standard contract IMO for a #1 center

Yeah feels about right to me too.

Interesting that Nicks' cap hit is 7.875 and Weber's is 7.857 it makes you wonder if its a nod to Shea.

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3 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Its an 8 year deal though. You dont get 22 year old 1st line centres to sign for 8 years unless you pump that AAV.   I am sure they could have signed him to a bridge deal for less, or even 5 or 6 years but we're paying for those last few years & considering he'll be in his early 30s then I think it will be very very good value over the term but we shall see. 

Yeah feels about right to me too.

Interesting that Nicks' cap hit is 7.875 and Weber's is 7.857 it makes you wonder if its a nod to Shea.

yeah I'd rather this than say 6x6 for example. I'm definitely happy about this, just not jumping for joy because there is a bit of risk here. I'm pretty sure Suzuki is the real deal but its still a small sample size

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55 minutes ago, habsisme said:

yeah I'd rather this than say 6x6 for example. I'm definitely happy about this, just not jumping for joy because there is a bit of risk here. I'm pretty sure Suzuki is the real deal but its still a small sample size

I know what you're saying but 6 x 6 probably means he makes way more in the 2 years that follow, or worse, goes UFA. 

Its a lot to give a young guy who's never even been PPG yet but I think if we waited till january or next summer the cost would be a lot higher. I think he's going to have a monster season.  

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30 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I know what you're saying but 6 x 6 probably means he makes way more in the 2 years that follow, or worse, goes UFA. 

Its a lot to give a young guy who's never even been PPG yet but I think if we waited till january or next summer the cost would be a lot higher. I think he's going to have a monster season.  

 

5 minutes ago, seth505 said:

My first thought was that a lot of people might see this as over payment but IMO this is one of those times you bet on the future and let Suzuki know you believe in him and want him here for the long haul.

yeah I agree. I'm just being cautious but I really believe in Suzuki and this could easily be a STEAL in a year or two

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30 minutes ago, habsisme said:

yeah I agree. I'm just being cautious but I really believe in Suzuki and this could easily be a STEAL in a year or two

   after the KK disaster I think the Habs are more about locking up assets than they were before . Zuke has proved he has elite talent so far so yes it's rolling the dice a bit but as you say he might turn out to be a steal ....cap should  start going up again with full buildings ...I expect if Caufield has a Calder Cup season the same will happen to him .

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, habsisme said:

7.875

I don't LOVE this. It's good he's locked up for 8 years but I feel it's a bit of an overpayment for what he's done up to now. Would have liked a bit more of a discount since he doesn't have this prove it year

Gotta protect your assets from offer sheets from the Canes! 

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13 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

   after the KK disaster I think the Habs are more about locking up assets than they were before . Zuke has proved he has elite talent so far so yes it's rolling the dice a bit but as you say he might turn out to be a steal ....cap should  start going up again with full buildings ...I expect if Caufield has a Calder Cup season the same will happen to him .

Bergevin took a good risk IMO betting on Suzuki here - at the same time, he's basically saying @#$$ you Dundon and Waddell

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4 hours ago, habsisme said:

7.875

I don't LOVE this. It's good he's locked up for 8 years but I feel it's a bit of an overpayment for what he's done up to now. Would have liked a bit more of a discount since he doesn't have this prove it year

The problem is, after a true prove it year, he could justifiably be asking for 10 million or so, especially to eat up UFA years.

There's no risk free alternative here: either we take a bit of a risk on the big contract or we risk a year of speculation and potential offer sheet, hold out, bridge deal, paying more, etc, all while not being able to project our cap properly into the future. This is a fair deal for both sides: Habs are taking a bit of a risk, but so is Suzuki, who could easily end up underpaid (reminds me a bit of the Pacioretty deal).

I think it's a great decision though: Suzuki isn't just a player with potential or who got some lucky goals or hot streaks. Last year's playoffs showed a player who was already showing elite 2-way center skills consistently. I could be wrong, but I think the risk of a major regression or similar is low here. Getting your top center of the future locked up long-term at a reasonable cap value is absolutely the right call IMO.

 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

Bergevin took a good risk IMO betting on Suzuki here - at the same time, he's basically saying @#$$ you Dundon and Waddell

For sure ...if not there would be another Cane OS on the table for Zuke ....maybe this will shut them up ...Suzuki will prove this to be a great contract ...starting this season ...can't wait see what he can do with Hoffman and  Caulfield  on the PP for a year 

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29 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

For sure ...if not there would be another Cane OS on the table for Zuke ....maybe this will shut them up ...Suzuki will prove this to be a great contract ...starting this season ...can't wait see what he can do with Hoffman and  Caulfield  on the PP for a year 

Not the canes i think.  They are going to be in some cap trouble soon.  Necas, Javis, Drury, and Kotkaneimi will all need contracts... and they have some skill in the pipeline too.  I would be surprised to see them tendering any more offer sheets. 

That said, it will be interesting to see if a different team goes the route they did with JK. Vast overpay for 1 year.  The problem is, if you did a vast overpay for a guy who would legitimately getting $6-8m, you're going to be losing a lot of quality draft picks. Like if you offer $12m for 1 year for a guy who is probably worth $8m - you lose 4 first rounders.   And even then if the team knows the guy is worth it, they match. I think the only way  you make a successful OS is if you vastly overpay for someone that his team is losing some faith in.  The only2 in history that have worked have been that.  JK and Dustin Penner. In both cases the opposing team offered way more than that guy was worth at that moment.   
 

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26 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Happy with this about time we lock up a good young asset before it get screwed up! nothing is for free and this guy is as close to can't miss at center as we have had in 30 years!

These are my thoughts exactly.

If you want to win, you need first-rate players (d'uh).  You also can't be paying too many of those good players giant 10M+ contracts, or else you're not going to have enough money left to build a team around them.  This means that the only way to get these great players on an equally great team is to either get lucky with a young prodigy that contributes before their first contract (real hard to do) or to take a bit of a chance and bet on a young, somewhat established player before they fully break out.

So with that said above, if you're not going to take this chance on Suzuki when are you going to do it?  This is as close as you're ever going to get to a "sure thing" without it actually having a 100% established player, but at that point you're going to pay way more.

 

Sure it's technically a gamble, but it's as safe a gamble as you're reasonably going to get and the potential upside is huge.  I view this deal as really, really good news.

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24 minutes ago, Manatee-X said:

These are my thoughts exactly.

If you want to win, you need first-rate players (d'uh).  You also can't be paying too many of those good players giant 10M+ contracts, or else you're not going to have enough money left to build a team around them.  This means that the only way to get these great players on an equally great team is to either get lucky with a young prodigy that contributes before their first contract (real hard to do) or to take a bit of a chance and bet on a young, somewhat established player before they fully break out.

So with that said above, if you're not going to take this chance on Suzuki when are you going to do it?  This is as close as you're ever going to get to a "sure thing" without it actually having a 100% established player, but at that point you're going to pay way more.

 

Sure it's technically a gamble, but it's as safe a gamble as you're reasonably going to get and the potential upside is huge.  I view this deal as really, really good news.

Yep and if he looks good this year I hope we do the same thing with CC.

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48 minutes ago, Manatee-X said:

These are my thoughts exactly.

If you want to win, you need first-rate players (d'uh).  You also can't be paying too many of those good players giant 10M+ contracts, or else you're not going to have enough money left to build a team around them.  This means that the only way to get these great players on an equally great team is to either get lucky with a young prodigy that contributes before their first contract (real hard to do) or to take a bit of a chance and bet on a young, somewhat established player before they fully break out.

So with that said above, if you're not going to take this chance on Suzuki when are you going to do it?  This is as close as you're ever going to get to a "sure thing" without it actually having a 100% established player, but at that point you're going to pay way more.

 

Sure it's technically a gamble, but it's as safe a gamble as you're reasonably going to get and the potential upside is huge.  I view this deal as really, really good news.

Agreed, this isn't the same thing as say had we locked up JK long-term: that was a case where you'd be really gambling. Suzuki was a nice middle-ground where he wasn't proven enough to demand 10 million, but has showed enough where there's low risk of the contract looking like a disaster (reasonable worst-case is it looks like a slight overpay).

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Not the canes i think.  They are going to be in some cap trouble soon.  Necas, Javis, Drury, and Kotkaneimi will all need contracts... and they have some skill in the pipeline too.  I would be surprised to see them tendering any more offer sheets. 

That said, it will be interesting to see if a different team goes the route they did with JK. Vast overpay for 1 year.  The problem is, if you did a vast overpay for a guy who would legitimately getting $6-8m, you're going to be losing a lot of quality draft picks. Like if you offer $12m for 1 year for a guy who is probably worth $8m - you lose 4 first rounders.   And even then if the team knows the guy is worth it, they match. I think the only way  you make a successful OS is if you vastly overpay for someone that his team is losing some faith in.  The only2 in history that have worked have been that.  JK and Dustin Penner. In both cases the opposing team offered way more than that guy was worth at that moment.   
 

Ya I don't think the JK route works here: what even does a vast-overpay for Suzuki look like (assuming he has a good season)? 13 million (highest cap hit in NHL history)? Even if that leads to Montreal not matching, part of what makes the JK offer work is the fact after a year Carolina can get out of it for fairly low cost by not qualifying him, but here it would cost them 4 first rounders for one season. And Suzuki knows he can just ride out his now sky-high qualifying offer to free agency, so no guarantee the cap hit improves in subsequent seasons.  The JK situation was one where they effectively weaponized cap space to get an unproven player they liked, it just doesn't work with a more proven player.

The bigger offer sheet risk is someone gives a couple million more than you were planning to spend (e.g. 12 million when you'd budgeted 10 million). This is probably a fairly easy match, but you've now burned a couple million of your cap for no good reason.

 

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27 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said:

The bigger offer sheet risk is someone gives a couple million more than you were planning to spend (e.g. 12 million when you'd budgeted 10 million). This is probably a fairly easy match, but you've now burned a couple million of your cap for no good reason.

Agree. The other O/S concern is term.  

I think the reason the hurricanes were upset wasnt the AAV of the Aho deal. Its that they had to match a 5 year offer.  He's 3 years closer to UFA than if they had signed the 8 year deal that I am certain they would have wanted to.

 

I still think the JK deal came from a place of revenge. Sure, they may like him. They may have been considering him in the draft, they may have tried to trade for him etc etc. but to do it in the way they did it was a risk and as you said, they essentially weaponized their cap & tried to create a situation that was essentially a lose-lose for MB. It was clever (dirty but i dont blame them) but one that would work under very very few circumstances. 

 

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