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#6 Shea Weber 2017-18


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#6 Shea Weber
Alternate Captain

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Position: Defence
Shoots: Right
Birthplace: Sicamous, BC, CAN 6UKXtFw.png
Birth date: 14 August 1985
Age: 31
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 232 lbs
Drafted by: Nashville
Draft Year: 2003 Round 2 (49th Overall)

Archive 2016-17

Stats | NHL.com | Contract Info

OwnThePuck HERO Chart (http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/):

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Really interesting article by Travis Yost here.  

 

Its been 1 year since "the trade 2.0" and Yost compares both players' seasons.  Yost delves deep into the advanced stats & shows that both had pretty great seasons.  The concern... as well had, and have, is that its unlikely Weber will maintain his level of play as long as PK does. 

The other thing Yost doesnt (really cant) address with the stats is how each player impacts his team.  PK fits perfectly into a great Nashville team while Weber is on an island as we frantically search for a mobile #2 to play with him. 


Still a good read. 

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I'm still trying to figure out that last graph, the one titled "Impact on Save Percentage".  Is that something that's relative to the league average save percentage somehow, or is it looking at how the same goalie performed behind the player in question versus other players on his team?

Like Yost said, that's the stat that's kind of key to evaluating Weber's season as being good-repeatable versus good-lucky.  More specifically, it comes down to the question of whether a player can actually impact the goalie's save percentage.

I know that the general thinking among analytics folks is that "no, they can't" but for whatever reason I still kind of want to believe that they can :P.  Looking at the other end of the ice, my impression is that it's also commonly thought that shooting percentage is similarly luck-based.  But while it may be highly variable, and it may not be repeatable from season-to-season, to me there's no denying that if you put Max Pacioretty and John Scott at the bottom of the hash marks and had them take snap shots that one of them would score at a higher rate than the other.  Maybe it's hard to measure because of the small number of goals per year and the high variability from season-to-season, but it doesn't change the fact that the difference is there.  Maybe it's like that for defenders/save percentage as well?  There might very well be a link there, just one that's difficult to measure.

But then I guess it still comes down to the fact that, no matter if he's lucky or skilled, if the save % stat really fluctuates so much from year to year then we can't necessarily expect Weber to repeat his performance in the years to come.

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1 hour ago, Manatee-X said:

I'm still trying to figure out that last graph, the one titled "Impact on Save Percentage".  Is that something that's relative to the league average save percentage somehow, or is it looking at how the same goalie performed behind the player in question versus other players on his team?

I believe what Yost is doing here is using some form of (regressed) expected goal metric to compare the delta between expected on-ice save percentage and the actual one. Whatever it is, the graph is a measurement of the percentile of the players in (again, I'm assuming) positive delta in on-ice save percentage. I'd love to have an opinion on it, but I really can't. It's reasonable to assume he'd use 5-on-5, because there's no good reason to use all situations data for analysis like this given how massively detrimental 4-on-5/3-on-5/3-on-4 is to a goalie's save percentage regardless of the skaters on the ice, but he doesn't say so. As well, if he's doing regression, I'd like to know a lot more. I'd hope he'd be using something like expected adjusted goals saved above average using expected shot danger binning. So, I don't know what Yost is using, or exactly what he means by the graph.

1 hour ago, Manatee-X said:

More specifically, it comes down to the question of whether a player can actually impact the goalie's save percentage.

I know that the general thinking among analytics folks is that "no, they can't" but for whatever reason I still kind of want to believe that they can :P.  Looking at the other end of the ice, my impression is that it's also commonly thought that shooting percentage is similarly luck-based.  But while it may be highly variable, and it may not be repeatable from season-to-season, to me there's no denying that if you put Max Pacioretty and John Scott at the bottom of the hash marks and had them take snap shots that one of them would score at a higher rate than the other.  Maybe it's hard to measure because of the small number of goals per year and the high variability from season-to-season, but it doesn't change the fact that the difference is there.

To be precise, we nerds don't exactly say that (5-on-5) shooting and save percentages are entirely random and that players have no impact on them. The data show that both are heavily, heavily impacted by random chance, particularly when you have small sample sizes. They also aren't particularly predictive, even of themselves. The season-to-season variation is so high that the difference can almost always not be adequately said to be caused by something other than random chance itself. Then consider that goals being scored or allowed are rarely the direct and sole responsibility of exactly one player's intentional action. So, what we're saying is that they don't measure what you'd intrinsically think they do: individualized offensive or defensive aptitude.

Looking at raw goal-based information just isn't that interesting, because we're essentially just measuring non-individualized luck. Expected goal models are different, though, but that's a whole different and much more mathematically complicated discussion. :)

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3 hours ago, Manatee-X said:

 

Like Yost said, that's the stat that's kind of key to evaluating Weber's season as being good-repeatable versus good-lucky.  More specifically, it comes down to the question of whether a player can actually impact the goalie's save percentage.

 

I think one player(D-man) can, to a certain degree, affect a goalie's save %. I think two players(D-men) paired together, if incompatible, can greatly affect a goalie's save %. 

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5 hours ago, habs1952 said:

I think one player(D-man) can, to a certain degree, affect a goalie's save %. I think two players(D-men) paired together, if incompatible, can greatly affect a goalie's save %. 

I also believe that its possible. We will see what happens this year. If Price once again has a ridiculous SV% while weber is on the ice then you have to think he is doing something (limiting the type of shots against?) One year isnt a big enough sample size to say its an absolute certainty but we're also not talking about 5 games here.  We shall see.  

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3 hours ago, maas_art said:

I also believe that its possible. We will see what happens this year. If Price once again has a ridiculous SV% while weber is on the ice then you have to think he is doing something (limiting the type of shots against?) One year isnt a big enough sample size to say its an absolute certainty but we're also not talking about 5 games here.  We shall see.  

You need to keep in mind Weber isn't the only defender on the ice. If the four other defenders don't do their jobs what Weber does is irrelevant.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I like what Weber brought to the team this year. 17G  25A  +20 38 PIM. Don't get me wrong I loved Subban and the excitement he brought but at a risk. Weber could be one of those D-man that plays at a high level till his late 30s. Yes I wish we could have them both but I would still take a Robinson Type Player over an Orr (no disrespect to either)

 

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1 hour ago, 4erver10 said:

I like what Weber brought to the team this year. 17G  25A  +20 38 PIM. Don't get me wrong I loved Subban and the excitement he brought but at a risk. Weber could be one of those D-man that plays at a high level till his late 30s. Yes I wish we could have them both but I would still take a Robinson Type Player over an Orr (no disrespect to either)

Like you, i actually really like Weber. I feel like he might do well for us for another couple of years, but:

1) We got fleeced in the deal, no other way to cut it.  Nashville called us, so we were dealing from a position of power, and yet we still managed to get the older, slower and (most likely) faster declining player on a worse contract.   Weber for PK 1 for 1 was not a fair trade.   If MB truly believed we needed Weber we should have at least gotten a top  prospect (kamenev, trenin, fiala or Saros) and/or a 1st round pick, if nothing other than to offset the age difference.

2) There is probably a 90% chance Weber starts declining in the next few years.  A smart GM would have a plan to move him before that happens.   You're right - maybe he does play well till he's 40 - but thats a big risk when you know you could probably turn him into real assets right now.  I think you could make a strong case for trading Weber to the Oilers for Draitsatl (obviously as part of a package) because Edmonton is sorely lacking a top defensman and they will not be able to resign Draitsatl for close to Weber's $7.8m cap hit. 

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21 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Like you, i actually really like Weber. I feel like he might do well for us for another couple of years, but:

1) We got fleeced in the deal, no other way to cut it.  Nashville called us, so we were dealing from a position of power, and yet we still managed to get the older, slower and (most likely) faster declining player on a worse contract.   Weber for PK 1 for 1 was not a fair trade.   If MB truly believed we needed Weber we should have at least gotten a top  prospect (kamenev, trenin, fiala or Saros) and/or a 1st round pick, if nothing other than to offset the age difference.

2) There is probably a 90% chance Weber starts declining in the next few years.  A smart GM would have a plan to move him before that happens.   You're right - maybe he does play well till he's 40 - but thats a big risk when you know you could probably turn him into real assets right now.  I think you could make a strong case for trading Weber to the Oilers for Draitsatl (obviously as part of a package) because Edmonton is sorely lacking a top defensman and they will not be able to resign Draitsatl for close to Weber's $7.8m cap hit. 

4 years age difference is a huge deal when you're looking at that specific window (27-31) and when you're looking at players on long-term deals (especially when the older guy is on the much longer deal). Look at other top-tier players from Weber and Subban's draft years. Would you rather have Ryan Suter (drafted in 2003) or Ryan McDonagh (drafted in 2007) for the next 5 years? Would you rather have Eric Staal ('03) or Logan Couture? Tomas Vanek or Patrick Kane? Corey Perry or Max Pacioretty?

This is not just an argument limited to Subban vs. Weber. If you look at the guys drafted in 2003, they are really excellent players. I'd be thrilled to have Jeff Carter or Ryan Getzlaf for the next 2-3 years, but I wouldn't trade Voracek or Wayne Simmonds to get them and I especially wouldn't do it with both guys on long-term deals. One can argue whether Weber in his prime was better than Subban in his prime, but to me, there is zero contest as to who the better player is now and who the better player is likely to be for the next 5 years or longer.

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Yeah Im gonna say a couple things here.

1. I am NOT happy with how he did here. I am going to say with no hyperbole or exaggeration, that of all the "big name" players I have watched come through the habs.....tanguay, cammalleri, radulov, whoever....he has impressed me the least and by a pretty fair margin.  Unless its a PP and hes got a good look from the point, I literally don't notice him on the ice at ALL.  And please don't say "well that means he is defensively responsible" because 1. so is jordie benn and 2. subban went head to head with kane and toews, getzlaf and perry, and held them to bupkus and got within 1 game of a cup deciding game going head to head with crosby and really limiting his offence. So I don't want to hear about this defensive responsibility nonsense anymore either in comparison to Subban, or as a measure of his value as our "star" defenceman

2. "starts declining" ? that started a while ago. he has declined. he is too slow to be a physical presence of any significance and has no offensive bearing on our transition game. he makes a safe 4 foot pass to his partner or a safe 4 foot pass off the boards, and thats IT.  all thats left is the shot, and god help us when he cant get that to go anymore. 

So in short, Im not happy with what I have seen, I think he is clearly past it  NOW, and I shudder at what this looks like as we go along year by year. 

Subban carried anyone he played with. Now all of a sudden we have this extreme need of a #1 LD....think about that.  7.8 mill guys. until 2073.  and we will NEVER trade him, at least bargainbin won't. you can bet your house on that. 

 

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3 hours ago, maas_art said:

Like you, i actually really like Weber. I feel like he might do well for us for another couple of years, but:

1) We got fleeced in the deal, no other way to cut it.  Nashville called us, so we were dealing from a position of power, and yet we still managed to get the older, slower and (most likely) faster declining player on a worse contract.   Weber for PK 1 for 1 was not a fair trade.   If MB truly believed we needed Weber we should have at least gotten a top  prospect (kamenev, trenin, fiala or Saros) and/or a 1st round pick, if nothing other than to offset the age difference.

2) There is probably a 90% chance Weber starts declining in the next few years.  A smart GM would have a plan to move him before that happens.   You're right - maybe he does play well till he's 40 - but thats a big risk when you know you could probably turn him into real assets right now.  I think you could make a strong case for trading Weber to the Oilers for Draitsatl (obviously as part of a package) because Edmonton is sorely lacking a top defensman and they will not be able to resign Draitsatl for close to Weber's $7.8m cap hit. 

While I am never going to say we should have got more in a trade. Josi is still number 1 in Nashville although Subbam and Ellis looking at TOI might be 1b and 2A. So Nashville may have saw this as a definite number 1 in Weber for a posssible #2 or #3. I am not sure PK will ever pass Josi as #1 and think he may slide down a little if anything, but we will see. Weber is definitely #1 here and will likely stay that way for at least 2 or 3 more seasons. I am not sure how much more we  could have got if Nashville felt Subban would not pass Josi as a number 1 there and they were potentially giving up their best. They clearly have some crazy depth on the backend in Nashville

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So that's the thing with D men... that most of them peak around 25-28. Subban was at peak when we traded him. Weber was past prime. Weber is still good. He doesn't have the best footspeed and he isn't great at carrying the puck, but he makes up to it by to some degree by making smart, safe plays. That said, he doesn't have the impact a Subban has on the game and he can't. He's just not capable of that at age 31. It doesn't mean he can't be effective though. Look at Markov. He's not the same Markov we had 10-12 years ago but he's a valuable contributor by virtue of his ability to adapt to his declining physical function. Weber can do the same, but he's simply not going to have the same top-end impact a player like Subban or Karlsson or so on will have. For my money, I'd frankly have a younger guy who's already good but still in his prime. Give me Seth Jones, give me Dougie Hamilton, give me Provorov or Werenski or Nurse or Hedman, because those guys are going to be contributors for a few years to come. I just don't like the idea of giving up an elite asset at prime for a very good but past prime asset like Weber, and given our lack of ability to win now, I'd rather flip Weber for a younger star to expand our window.

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7 minutes ago, Habberwacky said:

While I am never going to say we should have got more in a trade. Josi is still number 1 in Nashville although Subbam and Ellis looking at TOI might be 1b and 2A. So Nashville may have saw this as a definite number 1 in Weber for a posssible #2 or #3. I am not sure PK will ever pass Josi as #1 and think he may slide down a little if anything, but we will see. Weber is definitely #1 here and will likely stay that way for at least 2 or 3 more seasons. I am not sure how much more we  could have got if Nashville felt Subban would not pass Josi as a number 1 there and they were potentially giving up their best. They clearly have some crazy depth on the backend in Nashville

I don't know that Nashville considers Josi to be a clear #1. I think they felt they had two #1 guys in Josi and Subban, and they essentially do. Josi got about 30 seconds more ice time per game, but he and Subban had the same number of shifts per game in the regular season and in the playoffs. Subban had better possession statistics and he frequently had the tougher match-ups to play against. In the playoffs, with the game on the line, Subban-Ekholm was the duo that was called upon the most. I think Nashville certainly had a higher comfort level playing Josi to start the year, but as the season went on, I think you saw Subban become the more dominant player and the guy the coaches trusted more. I think they still liked Josi's offensive ability and gave him the 1st-wave PP minutes more often, but I think Subban really won the confidence of his coaches and teammates.

David Poile stated when he traded Weber that it was a tough decision to make because of Shea's history in Nashville but that they felt they were getting the younger player with the brighter future. Basically, Nasvhille saw the decline coming with Weber. I think Josi would have been the guy in Nashville even if Weber was there, and he actually had the same (slightly more in fact by a few seconds) ice time as Weber in each of the past two years. To me, the order of utility of the players going forward is Subban number one, then Josi, then Weber. As good as Weber is, we got hosed in the deal.

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4 hours ago, jeff33 said:

Yeah Im gonna say a couple things here.

1. I am NOT happy with how he did here. I am going to say with no hyperbole or exaggeration, that of all the "big name" players I have watched come through the habs.....tanguay, cammalleri, radulov, whoever....he has impressed me the least and by a pretty fair margin.  Unless its a PP and hes got a good look from the point, I literally don't notice him on the ice at ALL.  And please don't say "well that means he is defensively responsible" because 1. so is jordie benn and 2. subban went head to head with kane and toews, getzlaf and perry, and held them to bupkus and got within 1 game of a cup deciding game going head to head with crosby and really limiting his offence. So I don't want to hear about this defensive responsibility nonsense anymore either in comparison to Subban, or as a measure of his value as our "star" defenceman

2. "starts declining" ? that started a while ago. he has declined. he is too slow to be a physical presence of any significance and has no offensive bearing on our transition game. he makes a safe 4 foot pass to his partner or a safe 4 foot pass off the boards, and thats IT.  all thats left is the shot, and god help us when he cant get that to go anymore. 

So in short, Im not happy with what I have seen, I think he is clearly past it  NOW, and I shudder at what this looks like as we go along year by year. 

Subban carried anyone he played with. Now all of a sudden we have this extreme need of a #1 LD....think about that.  7.8 mill guys. until 2073.  and we will NEVER trade him, at least bargainbin won't. you can bet your house on that. 

 

Agreed wholeheartedly unfortunately. NOT impressed. Weber is past his prime and Subban is just coming into his own. It's like comparing apples to oranges.

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21 hours ago, jeff33 said:

2. "starts declining" ? that started a while ago. he has declined. he is too slow to be a physical presence of any significance and has no offensive bearing on our transition game. he makes a safe 4 foot pass to his partner or a safe 4 foot pass off the boards, and thats IT.  all thats left is the shot, and god help us when he cant get that to go anymore. 

What's annoying is that Subban vs. Weber is always pitched as a "stats vs. eye test" debate or an argument about "defensive vs. offensive defenseman". In reality it's entirely about aging curves and that Weber will be 32 when the season starts, while Subban will be 28. Weber's style of play isn't some enigma that stats can't measure, when he was 25-28 in his prime, Weber was one of the top 2 or 3 corsi/any stat you care to mention players in the league. He's just not 25 anymore, and he's lost that step meaning he can't reliably use his frame to take the puck away.

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1 hour ago, Noob616 said:

What's annoying is that Subban vs. Weber is always pitched as a "stats vs. eye test" debate or an argument about "defensive vs. offensive defenseman". In reality it's entirely about aging curves and that Weber will be 32 when the season starts, while Subban will be 28. Weber's style of play isn't some enigma that stats can't measure, when he was 25-28 in his prime, Weber was one of the top 2 or 3 corsi/any stat you care to mention players in the league. He's just not 25 anymore, and he's lost that step meaning he can't reliably use his frame to take the puck away.

exactly, if we got in a time machine and made this trade in 2008 then ok. I trashed Weber in my post but its not like I can't admit he was once a force of nature in the NHL, and you can still see flashes of it here and there. But as you correctly put it, its just a simple matter of time catching up and the reality of life.

But on the other hand, thats the source of my frustration....the guy is kinda living off apologetics at this point in his career. calling him an elite dman or a legit number 1 at this point to me is not a given. I don't see it. I think i could think of 20 dmen I'd rather have, not just Subban.  Thats was my point about this sudden desperation for a number 1 LD.  Weber being the central point of your D at this stage in his career is a very big problem, he needs to be insulated and supported and thats ok other than the fact that we traded our game breaker and best skater on the team for him, and hes eating huge money for the next million years.

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2 hours ago, tony5775 said:

The last 4 years of Weber's contract he is paid a total of 6 million for all 4 years and a total of 3 million for the last three years. He could be easily bought out or traded.

Unfortunately ... it does not matter what he will actually be paid but rather the cap hit which is substantial.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Buying out Weber would cost us 1.26M per season for the next 18 years. Not a lot per year, but you've handicapped your squad against everyone else for two decades. That's how ridiculous a contract Bergevin acquired.

But, but he's positive we're a better club today. Oh wait; that was yesterday.

I realize this is the Weber thread but I've become so disgusted with Bergeron & his lies & cover-ups. 

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Buying out Weber would cost us 1.26M per season for the next 18 years. Not a lot per year, but you've handicapped your squad against everyone else for two decades. That's how ridiculous a contract Bergevin acquired.

Isnt nashville on the hook for some of that? I cant remember how that goes...

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