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#6 Shea Weber 2017-18


habs_93
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Nashville is on the hook if he retires early, but I think this was a major factor in the trade and said so a long time ago. Weber is more likely to retire than play for the salary when it is so low. No worry on that cap hit, but part of the Subban trade was a salary dump and some of the blame for that is on Molson who intervened in the negotiation. Not that Bergevin hasn't overpaid on his own. 

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13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Buying out Weber would cost us 1.26M per season for the next 18 years. Not a lot per year, but you've handicapped your squad against everyone else for two decades. That's how ridiculous a contract Bergevin acquired.

Meh. I wouldn't worry about it, how often have teams actually paid for signing these kinds of deals? I'm sure once his salary drops from 6M to 1M he'll have some mysterious injury and "retire" but technically just stay on LTIR like Pronger, Hossa, Horton (tbf he has a legit injury), Lupul, Bolland, etc. Might even get a job with the NHL like Pronger.

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20 minutes ago, Noob616 said:

Meh. I wouldn't worry about it, how often have teams actually paid for signing these kinds of deals? I'm sure once his salary drops from 6M to 1M he'll have some mysterious injury and "retire". Might even get a job with the NHL like Pronger.

This is also the NHL, so there will also undoubtedly be another work stoppage in that time.

Back in the present and on the ice, I can see a scenario where Shea is an unambiguous positive for the team and is part of an arrangement ("leadership", if you will) that makes the team greater than the sum of its parts and puts us in a better position to succeed. It starts with accepting reality: Shea's 5-on-5 performance is no longer up to the standard which a competitive team requires from its #1. Shea is objectively not the team's top even strength performer on defence. This is an empirical fact acknowledged by the coaching staff last season, because the quality of opponents he faced was less than that faced by Jeff Petry. This doesn't mean he can't contribute, it means he shouldn't be expected to play over his abilities. Shea shines as a top power play performer, and is substantially above average on the penalty kill where his style is still optimal. The goal of the organization should be to get the most out of every player, regardless of whether or not it "seems" right. Shea best helps the team playing less 5-on-5 and more special teams. It's unfortunate that dogmatic thinking in the organization and a need for Bergevin to save face will prevent the best outcome from happening. What's more important: the "optics" of having a player paid as much as Weber being "demoted" to the second pair, or winning hockey games?

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14 hours ago, maas_art said:

Isnt nashville on the hook for some of that? I cant remember how that goes...

 

13 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

Nashville is on the hook if he retires early, but I think this was a major factor in the trade and said so a long time ago. Weber is more likely to retire than play for the salary when it is so low. No worry on that cap hit, but part of the Subban trade was a salary dump and some of the blame for that is on Molson who intervened in the negotiation. Not that Bergevin hasn't overpaid on his own. 

If Weber retires early, any team that had him on their roster when the salary was higher than the cap hit can be hit with a cap recapture penalty (put in place to deter teams from giving front-loaded contracts with "fake" years at the end). But if we buy him out, the buyout cap hit is strictly on us.

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Good article here  explaining why im worried going into this year (withouth a significant change).  I agree with pretty much everything the writer has said. We have solid depth at defense but right now a glaring hole next to Weber.  Who can play with him?   Right now there's no one on our roster who i think is ideal (aside from Petry but I dont love stacking that one pairing and then forcing most of the roster to play their off-side).

______ Weber
Alzner - Petry
Schlemko/JJ/Davidson-Benn

even if our #1 defensive prospect (Juulsen) could make the jump, is he ready for those sorts of minutes? Oh and he's a RD.   Even resigning Markov (our best option but still not a great one) is problematic since he's like the same age as his jersey number. There's no way he can effectively play top pairing minutes even if Alzner and Benn sub in next to Shea during PK and defensive situations. 

Gah, MB you've made a big mess of your defensive roster. 

 

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20 hours ago, maas_art said:

Good article here  explaining why im worried going into this year (withouth a significant change).  I agree with pretty much everything the writer has said. We have solid depth at defense but right now a glaring hole next to Weber.  Who can play with him?   Right now there's no one on our roster who i think is ideal (aside from Petry but I dont love stacking that one pairing and then forcing most of the roster to play their off-side).

______ Weber
Alzner - Petry
Schlemko/JJ/Davidson-Benn

even if our #1 defensive prospect (Juulsen) could make the jump, is he ready for those sorts of minutes? Oh and he's a RD.   Even resigning Markov (our best option but still not a great one) is problematic since he's like the same age as his jersey number. There's no way he can effectively play top pairing minutes even if Alzner and Benn sub in next to Shea during PK and defensive situations. 

Gah, MB you've made a big mess of your defensive roster. 

 

Exaggerating Markov's age much :4845:

Can't agree with this assessment.

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I know +/- doesn't tell the whole story, but Weber was -4 last night. Was he as poor as that number makes it seem? It appears that the praise Weber, Pacioretty, and Price received after beating Florida (:lol:) was premature.

heres a better question.....what does he actually do one way or the other? + or -?  hes out there for half a game every night, I dont notice him at all, and we lose. 7.8 million, plus the best player we have had in over a decade for that. cooll.:6280:

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5 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I know +/- doesn't tell the whole story, but Weber was -4 last night. Was he as poor as that number makes it seem? It appears that the praise Weber, Pacioretty, and Price received after beating Florida (:lol:) was premature.

Not sure i follow.  The 3 of them played well against Florida - got accolades.  The three of them played poorly against LA...  I think you can still praise a player for playing a good game and complain when he plays a bad one.  Last night didnt take away from the Florida win. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Not sure i follow.  The 3 of them played well against Florida - got accolades.  The three of them played poorly against LA...  I think you can still praise a player for playing a good game and complain when he plays a bad one.  Last night didnt take away from the Florida win. 

Certainly. You're right.

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this season is not his fault nor is it Mete's they have done well considering Mete's lack of experience he has been amazing! Petry has been very soft in his own zone Alzner is really not very good and Benn is a shadow of what he brought last season. Davidson has shown some promise lately but as a whole this is a disjointed poorly assembled mess!

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1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

this season is not his fault nor is it Mete's they have done well considering Mete's lack of experience he has been amazing! Petry has been very soft in his own zone Alzner is really not very good and Benn is a shadow of what he brought last season. Davidson has shown some promise lately but as a whole this is a disjointed poorly assembled mess!

id agree. Weber is a shot-supression beast (unfortunately at both ends of the ice) but with Mete they've created a pretty solid pairing.  Davidson has been getting better and bettter but the other 4 guys? Yuck.  Petry looked better paired with Davidson.  Alzner seems to have no spot on this roster.  Benn too. 

I think  Weber-Mete  Davidson-Petry might be ok, but we need to get stronger on that third pairing. Alzner, Benn and Morrow - none of them are cutting it. Jerabek has looked decent in Laval but not sure how that will translate to the NHL.    Will Julien play Alzner outside of the top 4?

 

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17 hours ago, maas_art said:

id agree. Weber is a shot-supression beast (unfortunately at both ends of the ice) but with Mete they've created a pretty solid pairing.  Davidson has been getting better and bettter but the other 4 guys? Yuck.  Petry looked better paired with Davidson.  Alzner seems to have no spot on this roster.  Benn too.

The issue is that he isn't really living up to this reputation. Let's look at a with or without you graph:

V1tu6Ot.png

As you can see, for most players on the Habs, they have fewer adjusted 5-on-5 shot attempts against playing without him than with him. And it's not because of quality of opposition (Weber's average opposition is functionally identical to Petry, Alzner, and Mete in CF% QoC) or teammates (CF% QoT similar to Petry and Davidson, although it's less so). In the specific example of Mete, he plays better without Weber.

While it's true Weber is a drag on the team's offensive 5-on-5 shot generation, it isn't paired with an attendant reduction in 5-on-5 shots against.

In the same way that David Desharnais' negative impact on the team wasn't his fault due to the problem being caused by the coaching staff's improper deployment of him, the defence being poor is not Shea Weber's fault. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Shea is giving anything less than 110% and making the best possible decisions he can on the ice at all times. I've criticized his playing style before, but I've never criticized his grasp of the game and compete level. I'm not sure anyone can do that with any credibility. Unfortunately, it just doesn't matter. He can no longer play top pairing 5-on-5 minutes and carry a team the way he could 5 years ago.

He is a force on the power play, and the data suggest he would be much better suited to playing on the second pair. Not only would he likely have more luck producing and suppressing shots, there'd be more in the tank for special teams. But Shea Weber brings with him a mystique. "Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon", said Mark Twain. The Montreal Canadiens do not have the kind of front office to depart from the conventional wisdom. Pity.

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Good data, 93.

That said, I'll ask you what you think about your statement regarding his playing on the 2nd pairing... you mentioned that his quality of competition and teammates is virtually identical to what Petry and Alzner are getting. So functionally, his ice time difficulty IS not really any different than what he would be getting if he were labeled a 2nd pairing guy. So the question is whether Weber's performance drops off the more minutes he plays... if we can reduce his playing time to "2nd pairing minutes" and he performs at a higher level, then it would suggest your statement is correct. If his performance is similar in fewer minutes, then does it really make a difference what pairing we're labeling him (since calling Alzner-Petry the "1st pairing" in essence wouldn't change the match-up difficulty for Weber all that much)?

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Indeed, it's a good question. Unfortunately I don't have the time to play with the data today to empirically determine the relationship between his 5-on-5 time and performance. You're right, though: it doesn't matter what we call his pair. Maybe we don't have a "first pair", but 2A and 2B. I'd be fine with that. Then we get to the issue of distributing the minutes.

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On 28/10/2017 at 2:04 PM, habs_93 said:

Indeed, it's a good question. Unfortunately I don't have the time to play with the data today to empirically determine the relationship between his 5-on-5 time and performance. You're right, though: it doesn't matter what we call his pair. Maybe we don't have a "first pair", but 2A and 2B. I'd be fine with that. Then we get to the issue of distributing the minutes.

Tyler Dellow has an interesting article up at The Athletic from yesterday. He went through the "star %" (TOI% vs other team's top forward) of a few teams' defense and found Julien has really dialed back using Weber as the matchup guy compared to how he used Chara (or how Therrien used Weber). Chara under Julien was basically what we were sold Weber as - an obscenely good shutdown guy that can murder opposing star forwards for huge minutes every night. Average star % of a #1D is 40%, and Julien used Chara at like 55% or higher (and he's still top in the league by this metric).

The star % metric seems to support your 2A 2B idea, Weber/Mete/Alzner/Petry are the top 4 and gradually step down from 39 to 28 star%. Seems like Julien generally prefers Weber for matchups but doesn't really shelter Alzner, Petry, (or even Benn) in any way, and uses Weber as basically just a typical #1D rather than as someone uniquely good as a shutdown guy. 

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7 hours ago, Noob616 said:

Tyler Dellow has an interesting article up at The Athletic from yesterday. He went through the "star %" (TOI% vs other team's top forward) of a few teams' defense and found Julien has really dialed back using Weber as the matchup guy compared to how he used Chara (or how Therrien used Weber). Chara under Julien was basically what we were sold Weber as - an obscenely good shutdown guy that can murder opposing star forwards for huge minutes every night. Average star % of a #1D is 40%, and Julien used Chara at like 55% or higher (and he's still top in the league by this metric).

The star % metric seems to support your 2A 2B idea, Weber/Mete/Alzner/Petry are the top 4 and gradually step down from 39 to 28 star%. Seems like Julien generally prefers Weber for matchups but doesn't really shelter Alzner, Petry, (or even Benn) in any way, and uses Weber as basically just a typical #1D rather than as someone uniquely good as a shutdown guy. 

Gotta save Weber for the playoffs dontcha know. 

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22 hours ago, Noob616 said:

Tyler Dellow has an interesting article up at The Athletic from yesterday. He went through the "star %" (TOI% vs other team's top forward) of a few teams' defense and found Julien has really dialed back using Weber as the matchup guy compared to how he used Chara (or how Therrien used Weber). Chara under Julien was basically what we were sold Weber as - an obscenely good shutdown guy that can murder opposing star forwards for huge minutes every night. Average star % of a #1D is 40%, and Julien used Chara at like 55% or higher (and he's still top in the league by this metric).

The star % metric seems to support your 2A 2B idea, Weber/Mete/Alzner/Petry are the top 4 and gradually step down from 39 to 28 star%. Seems like Julien generally prefers Weber for matchups but doesn't really shelter Alzner, Petry, (or even Benn) in any way, and uses Weber as basically just a typical #1D rather than as someone uniquely good as a shutdown guy. 

yeah hes still a good defence man just not what he used to be

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