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Expansion Draft


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Expansion Draft  

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  1. 1. Let's assume Danault, Lehkonen, Kotkaniemi, Gallagher, Taffoli, Anderson, Drouin, Weber, Petry, Fleury and Price are protected, and Armia and Tatar are left unsigned. Which of the Following would you rather lose to Seattle?

    • Chiarot
      1
    • Edmondson
      3
    • Allen
      2
    • Byron
      11
    • Mete
      5
    • Kulak
      2
    • Other
      3


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1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

 I am fairly sure the coaching staff will make some adjustments they seem to be working on the forward group first perhaps they want to do it that way rather than throw it all in the blender right away. time will tell.

It sounds like the biggest system change they have made on the back end is swapping zone and man once they enter the defensive zone.  So in the past if a player moved away from a particular zone, the defensman was supposed to let him go, letting the forward pick him up but this doesnt alway work in a practical sense. Its more complicated than that (there's some areas that are zone still but close to goal its man on man) - You would think this old system would benefit a slower defensman but I think that the new plan actually works for guys like Weber, Chairot and Edmundson better since they can latch on to a guy and stay with him.  Weber, for example, can be exploited with speed, but once he's got you one on one, he rarely looses you.   We shall see.


I think for right now, they want to see if the pairings adapt. I think they would like to keep Chairot with Weber until Romanov is ready, rather than using a stop-gap like Kulak.  We may all want the changes asap but i can see why the coaches may think that doing it in a more "delicate" manner could help the somewhat fragile psyche of the team.  

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

It sounds like the biggest system change they have made on the back end is swapping zone and man once they enter the defensive zone.  So in the past if a player moved away from a particular zone, the defensman was supposed to let him go, letting the forward pick him up but this doesnt alway work in a practical sense. Its more complicated than that (there's some areas that are zone still but close to goal its man on man) - You would think this old system would benefit a slower defensman but I think that the new plan actually works for guys like Weber, Chairot and Edmundson better since they can latch on to a guy and stay with him.  Weber, for example, can be exploited with speed, but once he's got you one on one, he rarely looses you.   We shall see.


I think for right now, they want to see if the pairings adapt. I think they would like to keep Chairot with Weber until Romanov is ready, rather than using a stop-gap like Kulak.  We may all want the changes asap but i can see why the coaches may think that doing it in a more "delicate" manner could help the somewhat fragile psyche of the team.  

This is exactly what I mean, we came off of a bad stretch lose the coach goalie issues no scoring D pairings in question if you come in and blow it all up it may blow up in your face! if like some suggested Douche was one who wanted a more open style of play that is one reason to think he could see some of the old setup working with the more open system. first change was the system then poof goalie coach not sure what went on there but it seems to have helped so far and the team has responded they started playing better right away and after a couple of games the scoring started to come around now if the D can get it together we will be fine if not you make the next set of changes.

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I'm not sure why everyone is so afraid of Weber's contract. I'm thinking he has maybe 2 years left after this year. Then he retires. He'll be making 1 million a year with no insurance on where he can go. He makes a great solution for cash strapped teams to make the cap floor. An easy trade if he still plays. In my opinion he retires. Cap hit goes back to Nashville, how crazy is that. Lets enjoy this hall of famers last couple of years.

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3 hours ago, xxdocxx said:

I'm not sure why everyone is so afraid of Weber's contract. I'm thinking he has maybe 2 years left after this year. Then he retires. He'll be making 1 million a year with no insurance on where he can go. He makes a great solution for cash strapped teams to make the cap floor. An easy trade if he still plays. In my opinion he retires. Cap hit goes back to Nashville, how crazy is that. Lets enjoy this hall of famers last couple of years.

He will play until he is 40.

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2 hours ago, habs1952 said:

Weber needs to be left unprotected in the expansion draft.

I think so also. And a team will look long and hard about taking him. Captain material. High level play. great pickup for an expansion type team. Leadership will be irreplaceable. 

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On 3/9/2021 at 1:11 AM, dreegking said:

I think so also. And a team will look long and hard about taking him. Captain material. High level play. great pickup for an expansion type team. Leadership will be irreplaceable. 

Well I guess we should keep him if he's that good. 

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Go down through our lineup. What we have left to lose after everyone is protected is only one player, and that's Jake Allen. at 2.75 mil. He's a steel. Unfortunately we won't be able to get rid of some of the players we'd like to in the expansion draft. If I was a GM he's the best available goalie and the best asset from our team. He's my pick to lose

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When I look at the requirements for the expansion draft of Seattle taking minimum 14 forwards, minimum 9 D, and minimum 3 Goalies, and assuming the BAP strategy, it is hard to imagine the Krakken not taking Jake Allen. The top 3 goalies that I see as unprotected are 1) One of Braden Holtby or Thatcher Demko on Vancouver, 2) Dustin Tokarski - Buffalo 3) Alex Nedlejkovic - Carolina 4) Malcom Subban or Kevin Lankinen - Chicago 5) Anton Khudobin - Dallas 6) Cal Peterson - Los angeles 7) Cam Talbot - Minnesota 8) Jake Allen - Montreal 9) Keith Kinkaid - NYR 10) Pittsburgh - Casey DeSmith 11) St. Louis - Ville Husso 12) Michael Hutchinson - Toronto 13) Vitek Vanecek - this guy has some promise but only one season so far

The remainder are all UFA's, or have barely had a cup of coffee game experience like McNiven. It is clear to me that BAP would be 1), 5) and 8) Jake - Cam Talbot falls far behind in age and contract. This is at the halfway point so maybe some performance could change my ratings.

Stranger things could happen by Habs taking a business risk and not protecting Carey Price - BIG IF they could convince him to waive his NMC.  For an expansion team that would be a lot of coin invested in a goalie. 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

When I look at the requirements for the expansion draft of Seattle taking minimum 14 forwards, minimum 9 D, and minimum 3 Goalies, and assuming the BAP strategy, it is hard to imagine the Krakken not taking Jake Allen. The top 3 goalies that I see as unprotected are 1) One of Braden Holtby or Thatcher Demko on Vancouver, 2) Dustin Tokarski - Buffalo 3) Alex Nedlejkovic - Carolina 4) Malcom Subban or Kevin Lankinen - Chicago 5) Anton Khudobin - Dallas 6) Cal Peterson - Los angeles 7) Cam Talbot - Minnesota 8) Jake Allen - Montreal 9) Keith Kinkaid - NYR 10) Pittsburgh - Casey DeSmith 11) St. Louis - Ville Husso 12) Michael Hutchinson - Toronto 13) Vitek Vanecek - this guy has some promise but only one season so far

The remainder are all UFA's, or have barely had a cup of coffee game experience like McNiven. It is clear to me that BAP would be 1), 5) and 8) Jake - Cam Talbot falls far behind in age and contract. This is at the halfway point so maybe some performance could change my ratings.

Stranger things could happen by Habs taking a business risk and not protecting Carey Price - BIG IF they could convince him to waive his NMC.  For an expansion team that would be a lot of coin invested in a goalie. 

But you never know... look what LV did trading for MA Fleury. Suddenly starting goalie wasn't an issue for them. Allen could clearly be a good choice for them, but I think they would be more enamored with getting a franchise player like Price who is almost a local boy.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/15/2021 at 4:07 PM, claremont said:

When I look at the requirements for the expansion draft of Seattle taking minimum 14 forwards, minimum 9 D, and minimum 3 Goalies, and assuming the BAP strategy, it is hard to imagine the Krakken not taking Jake Allen. The top 3 goalies that I see as unprotected are 1) One of Braden Holtby or Thatcher Demko on Vancouver, 2) Dustin Tokarski - Buffalo 3) Alex Nedlejkovic - Carolina 4) Malcom Subban or Kevin Lankinen - Chicago 5) Anton Khudobin - Dallas 6) Cal Peterson - Los angeles 7) Cam Talbot - Minnesota 8) Jake Allen - Montreal 9) Keith Kinkaid - NYR 10) Pittsburgh - Casey DeSmith 11) St. Louis - Ville Husso 12) Michael Hutchinson - Toronto 13) Vitek Vanecek - this guy has some promise but only one season so far

The remainder are all UFA's, or have barely had a cup of coffee game experience like McNiven. It is clear to me that BAP would be 1), 5) and 8) Jake - Cam Talbot falls far behind in age and contract. This is at the halfway point so maybe some performance could change my ratings.

Stranger things could happen by Habs taking a business risk and not protecting Carey Price - BIG IF they could convince him to waive his NMC.  For an expansion team that would be a lot of coin invested in a goalie. 

I am revisiting this as there is no denying that Allen's contract has value at $2.9M next year, and the Krakken have multiple options including some free agent signings such as Chris Driedger In Florida who is a UFA or Ilya Samsonov if Vanacek out plays him, but let's assume 1) MB has competitive intelligence on Krakken picks and can't negotiate protection from them not picking Jake 2)  Carey not willing to waive his NMC and 3) Primeau being assessed as ready, and concludes get some value for Jake - There is not much good goaltending in free agency. Here would be my top trading scenarios for next year post-season based on other teams goalie needs & cap room not in any order for a Jake Allen trade

a) Oilers - need a backup for Koskinen - Could we pry Evan Bouchard (RD) or Philip Broberg (LHD) from them. Raphael Lavoie is lower on my list as I don't see him as a strong skating  Centre and he's a right handed shot for RW where we have plenty of depth

b) Washington - are cap constrained re; Ovechkin and Vranek resigning - but better backup needed IMO if they lose one to the Krakken. I would want C-Connor McMichael or C-Hendrix Lapierre as part of any deal

c) Winnipeg - need a better backup for Hellebuyck - I would target LHD Ville Heinola or C - Cole Perfetti

d) Dallas - will lose Khudobin in expansion draft. I would target LHD Thomas Harley

e) Flyers - need a backup for Carter Hart. I would want C - Morgan Frost

Looked around a few other teams. Calgary will get blown up if they do not make the playoffs but the least of their problems is in goal.

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Assuming no one on Montreal waives there NMC. Also... Poehling, Caulfield, Romanov, Suzuki, and Primeau are not eligible for the draft. I guess this is who I would protect. 

Carey Price (NMC)

Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Josh Anderson
Tyler Toffoli
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Jonathan Drouin
Phillip Danault
Artturi Lehkonen

Jeff Petry (NMC)
Cale Fleury
Joel Edmundson

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1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Assuming no one on Montreal waives there NMC. Also... Poehling, Caulfield, Romanov, Suzuki, and Primeau are not eligible for the draft. I guess this is who I would protect. 

Carey Price (NMC)

Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Josh Anderson
Tyler Toffoli
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Jonathan Drouin
Phillip Danault
Artturi Lehkonen

Jeff Petry (NMC)
Cale Fleury
Joel Edmundson

Cale Fleury at this point does not require protection - he hasn't accrued enough games played at the NHL level - see the simulator tool on cap friendly - he needs 13 more games played. (I suspect that's why they have kept him in Laval) - so you should have one more D to protect. I have to think it should be Kulak for the value of his contract and abilities vs. the cap - $1.85M. Danault is a UFA - he is not eligible for protection unless resigned, so drop him, add Evans

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43 minutes ago, claremont said:

Cale Fleury at this point does not require protection - he hasn't accrued enough games played at the NHL level - see the simulator tool on cap friendly - he needs 13 more games played. (I suspect that's why they have kept him in Laval) - so you should have one more D to protect. I have to think it should be Kulak for the value of his contract and abilities vs. the cap - $1.85M. Danault is a UFA - he is not eligible for protection unless resigned, so drop him, add Evans

Fleury DOES need to be protected. Need for protection is based on being a "pro" (NHL or AHL) for more than two years. The number of games played is a criteria only used towards determining whether a team is exposing a minimum number of veteran players. It prevents teams from just saying they're exposing a bunch of journeymen like Weal, who don't actually have any value.

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On 3/10/2021 at 6:27 PM, xxdocxx said:

Well I guess we should keep him if he's that good. 

That would be just fine. His age is all that worries me. I think he’s fantastic. I’m ok with keeping him. Buy also happen to believe in some of the young up and comers in the system. 

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Wonder if you consider doing 4 and 4 instead of 7 and 1. My picks for this format would be 

KK, Toffoli, Anderson, Gallagher

Chiarot, Edmondson, Petry, Fleury

Price

That means basically we protect Allen by exposing Drouin and Weber. Losing Drouin or Weber would be hard but we keep Allen by default plus it opens a good chunk of cap space. We then can resign Tatar and Danault if we choose. 

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Assuming no one on Montreal waives there NMC. Also... Poehling, Caulfield, Romanov, Suzuki, and Primeau are not eligible for the draft. I guess this is who I would protect. 

Carey Price (NMC)

Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
Josh Anderson
Tyler Toffoli
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Jonathan Drouin
Phillip Danault
Artturi Lehkonen

Jeff Petry (NMC)
Cale Fleury
Joel Edmundson

Is Danault not a FA? 

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3 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Wonder if you consider doing 4 and 4 instead of 7 and 1. My picks for this format would be 

KK, Toffoli, Anderson, Gallagher

Chiarot, Edmondson, Petry, Fleury

Price

That means basically we protect Allen by exposing Drouin and Weber. Losing Drouin or Weber would be hard but we keep Allen by default plus it opens a good chunk of cap space. We then can resign Tatar and Danault if we choose. 

Aren't the only possible formats 7F, 3D, 1G or 8F, 2D, 1G?

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8 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Nope you can do any 8 skaters and a goalie as well

Ah. Yes. Thanks. It’s 8-2-1 that is not an option. 6-2-1. Sure. That fits into the rule. But the only way to protect 10 is the 7-3-1 rule. Otherwise it’s 8 and a G. One more D takes up two Forwards. 

Based on the Habs contractual terms of its players I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Habs are leaning towards 4-4-1
 

Although Charriot is only committed to one year after this year. I expect him to be protected. But if not - there’s the catch.

but looking at long term contracts I only see three forwards committed to long term. The massive majority expire this year  and a couple next year. Tonnes of Habs forwards his FA this summer. The team will be losing a Handful of forwards in the offseason and perhaps an elite elite forward will finally be signed and sr weak AHL players get their shot  

I expect: 

Webber-Perry-Edmundson- Charriot

Gally-Anderson-Toffoli-Kk

Price  

drouin will be made available imo  

The Habs don’t even have 7 forwards to protect going into next year.

 

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0% chance Jonathan Drouin is made available. I know lots of fans dislike him and he's not the elite player everyone thought he could be, but he's a good top 6 winger and is one of the more skilled players on the team. Is he going to be the centerpiece in your line-up? No. But he's a strong supporting player, and he's really picked up his effort level and defensive play the past two years. I see no reason to lose him for nothing, especially at his age.

IMO, the guys we will be 100% protecting (unless say Price waives his NMC):

- Kotkaniemi, Gallagher, Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli

- Petry

- Price

 

I don't think the Habs will go the 8 protected players route with their current line-up, because quite frankly, who really cares if they lose their 4th best D man? I think they will protect Weber and one of Edmundson/Chiarot. They should protect Kulak and Fleury, but they won't. But if they lose Chiarot or Edmundson or Mete or Fleury is that really the end of the world? If you're exposing the likes of Drouin, Lehkonen, Tatar, or Danault on account of trying to protect both Chiarot and Edmundson, you're just a bad GM. Drouin and Danault have way more value than those two, who as we've mentioned, are both signed long-term to play the same role on the team. I'd be ecstatic if Seattle chose one of them, it actually solves our problem of having money tied up in two guys for one job. I also couldn't care less if they took Weber at this point. He's simply not worth his cap hit at this point, and if they take Weber and leave us Allen, Kulak, Lehkonen, Evans, etc. so much the better in my view. That said, I would definitely see what Weber's trade value is and if there is someone willing to dish out a high pick or legit prospect to get him, I'd trade him away first and take the return. If there's no trade value left, then ED exposure is fine with me.

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31 minutes ago, dreegking said:

Ah. Yes. Thanks. It’s 8-2-1 that is not an option. 6-2-1. Sure. That fits into the rule. But the only way to protect 10 is the 7-3-1 rule. Otherwise it’s 8 and a G. One more D takes up two Forwards. 

Based on the Habs contractual terms of its players I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Habs are leaning towards 4-4-1
 

Although Charriot is only committed to one year after this year. I expect him to be protected. But if not - there’s the catch.

but looking at long term contracts I only see three forwards committed to long term. The massive majority expire this year  and a couple next year. Tonnes of Habs forwards his FA this summer. The team will be losing a Handful of forwards in the offseason and perhaps an elite elite forward will finally be signed and sr weak AHL players get their shot  

I expect: 

Webber-Perry-Edmundson- Charriot

Gally-Anderson-Toffoli-Kk

Price  

drouin will be made available imo  

The Habs don’t even have 7 forwards to protect going into next year.

 

Exactly, but if we strategize correctly and expose Weber, Seattle is likely to pass on his contract and we can therefore protect basically 5 D men. By exposing Drouin we potentially protect Allen.

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