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32 minutes ago, claremont said:

Your examples need to be modified - Dallas protects either Bishop (big contract) or Khudobin  - not both. Fleury and Lehner ARE NOT available- they are under contract to Las Vegas who are exempt from protecting players. Campbell Will almost certainly be protected by the leafs unless Freddie Andersieve (not a typo I called him a sieve!) is resigned as he is UFA at end of year.
My statement still stands - IMO unless the Krakken dip into free agency to say sign Freddie,or another UFA/RFA, or Price or another top goalie waives his NMC, Jake Allen is in the top 3 goalies that would otherwise be unprotected. 

I definitely think he'll at least give them pause.  It certainly conceivable they may pick someone else (we still dont know who we're protecting but it seems clear at least a few quality players will be exposed) so maybe the Kraken dont have a lot of good choices at LW and pick Lekhonen (if he's left exposed) or maybe they grab whichever one of Chairot or Edmundson is left free if they want a big, decent LHD.  

But i would say that Allen is the odds-on favourite. I think he's most likely to get grabbed and, honestly, i think thats why MB signed him to the extension - knowing he'd be a solid, quality option for Seattle. 

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I couldn’t disagree more with most perspectives. Of course that’s discourse. There’s so many variables. I don’t think we will protect two goalies as I think someone suggested. Pretty sure it’s not allowed. I don’t think we will lose him. But maybe. I do not see Drouin or Allen protected. Along with a couple others like Kulak. 
 

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6 minutes ago, dreegking said:

I couldn’t disagree more with most perspectives. Of course that’s discourse. There’s so many variables. I don’t think we will protect two goalies as I think someone suggested. Pretty sure it’s not allowed. I don’t think we will lose him. But maybe. I do not see Drouin or Allen protected. Along with a couple others like Kulak. 
 

As far as I know, you're correct. I dont believe you can protect 2.  your only options are 7F, 3D 1G   - or - 8skaters + 1G.   I dont see any option for 2G  (not  to mention you'd have to sign someone for that purpose (to expose him) since you must have at least 1 goalie under contract left unprotected.  Price wont be (unless he was to waive his NMC). 



 

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3 minutes ago, dreegking said:

Isn’t Lehks a FA at season’s end? 
 

 

Restricted.  Same with JK and Mete.

The UFA we have are: Tatar, Danault, Armia, Staal, Perry, Frolik (and Weal if you're still counting him).   Interestingly, none of our defense will be unrestricted. 

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Yes. 
 

and pending UFA are until the very end of June. As the new season technically starts July 1st. That said all pending FA do not satisfy the 40/70 rule of the expansion draft. 
 

badically my understanding is that this amounts to contracts expiring in 2021 (half the forwards on the team) as not worthy of protecting. 

yet the Canadiens must leave at least 2 forwards and 1 dman unprotected. Not hard to do. But the list when you consider the many UFA is not as long as many think. 
 

if people think the Krakan are going to select UFA in the expansion draft - they might want to go to Vegas and play the slots. 
 

 

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Thanks maas_art. Sorry. Got some odd reason I can’t respond by selecting quote! Anyone else? 
 

id argue that restricted FA is only a little tiny bit better than UFA for an expansion team. 
 

did any RFAs get taken in the last expansion draft? 
 

 

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49 minutes ago, dreegking said:

Thanks maas_art. Sorry. Got some odd reason I can’t respond by selecting quote! Anyone else? 
 

id argue that restricted FA is only a little tiny bit better than UFA for an expansion team. 
 

did any RFAs get taken in the last expansion draft? 

I did not check the last expansion draft selections but RFA's have to be protected or they can be selected. We may protect Lehkonen and Evans.going the 7F, 3D route. I can't see the advantages of going the 8 skaters 1 G route with our roster unless there's a D man you really want to protect over some of the forwards. I posted the rules in an earlier post this morning including Seattle having first right over UFA's and unprotected RFA's, for a couple of days before other teams can sign them. There are options and inducements. that MB has, and I would think he would want to jettison Byron off the roster even though he is well liked by the team, by giving Seattle draft choices, or Mete etc.  if you have time to kill, run your own simulation using the cap friendly tool. 

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Regarding Drouin, here are a few comparable players for you... guys with similar contract AAV's and around the same age who have similar PPG career production:

 

- Teuvo Teravainen

- Victor Arvidsson

- Jason Zucker (a little bit older now but consider Zucker from 3 years ago)

- Travis Konecny

 

So putting aside people's dislike of Drouin, does anyone think Carolina is exposing Teravainen and letting him go for free? Is Konecny going to be unprotected? Arvidsson? And didn't Zucker just last year get traded for a 1st round pick and Pittsburgh's best D prospect? These players have value. Drouin too would have value on the trade market, and despite the fact that Allen has been a strong back-up for us, he's still a back-up goalie, and we paid a 3rd round draft pick to acquire him. As a 30 year-old back-up goalie, he simply doesn't have the same value as a 26 year-old top 6 winger. Is Drouin and 80-point player? No. Neither is anyone else on the team. Just because Drouin never lived up to the hype of what he did in junior, it doesn't mean he's a bust. He has played well for us the past two years and as others have said, even if he's not my favorite player on the team, it just seems ridiculous to be dumping on his value. If someone wants to say they don't like his style of play and feels he should be traded, that's a reasonable opinion to have. I can understand that. But just because you don't like his style doesn't discount the fact that he has value as a player and that he has trade value. So again I'll maintain that there is a 0% chance he's exposed.

 

 

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Hey everyone, just a quick reminder that we really do want to try to create a fun and welcoming environment here to discuss our favourite hockey team.  We want to try to avoid opinions on either side getting too personal, even when we don't agree with them.

With that said, there does have to be some leeway given for people to express negative opinions, both with our team and with other posters' opinions.  The key is to discuss the opinion and not the poster themselves, but we don't want to have to completely limit ourselves to using only positive words. 

As an example, there is a subtle but key difference between saying "trading Weber is a dumb idea" and saying "if you think that we should trade Weber, you're an idiot".  They may seem similar, but one is referencing the hockey-related subject at hand and the other is a personal attack.  Smart people can have dumb ideas - trust me when I say that I don't have a terrible opinion of myself but I've certainly said some stupid things in my life! :)  If someone's arguing with something I said I find that it's less helpful to see it as a personal attack and more helpful to see it as an opportunity to engage with them about why they feel the way they do and why I feel the way I do.  I think you'd be surprised how often you can find some common ground, even here on the internet.

It's my hope that we can all continue to engage with each other in a constructive and enjoyable way.  And if anyone has any issues with this or with any other poster, please feel free to send me a direct message - I'm happy to discuss!

 

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18 hours ago, dreegking said:

Thanks maas_art. Sorry. Got some odd reason I can’t respond by selecting quote! Anyone else? 
 

I did log into your account to see if there was an issue with your quoting option and it seemed to be working fine. Are you selecting the small box beside the word quote at the bottom left of a post when your trying to quote someone? The box will give you the option of quoting multiple posts. Just clicking on the word quote should move that post into a response box where you can reply below it.

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What will be interesting is whether Ron Francis tries to get competitive quick or goes the long route of some picks and prospects. Vegas got pretty good fairly quick. With a clean slate of an $81.5 million cap, can he buy a core group? When you look at unprotected lists, barring side deals, there are likely some good young defenseman that are hard for teams to protect (  Carolina - Hayden Fleury / Jake Bean, St. Louis - Dunn, Toronto - Holl or McDermott, Wild have 3 NMC's - thus Dumba, Oilers - Caleb Jones, NYR - idiot Deangelo, Flyers - Ghost, TBay - Eric Cernak, AVS - Devon Toews).    Scorers and good forwards on the other hand are harder to pluck off the expansion draft. Usually you have to internally draft or acquire them however Las Vegas had some surprises of Marchessault, Karlsson and then traded for Patches and Mark Stone. One of the jump starts was taking a big cap hit for Marc Andre Fleury. Erik Haula was the only RFA they took off unprotected lists. 

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21 minutes ago, claremont said:

What will be interesting is whether Ron Francis tries to get competitive quick or goes the long route of some picks and prospects. Vegas got pretty good fairly quick. With a clean slate of an $81.5 million cap, can he buy a core group? When you look at unprotected lists, barring side deals, there are likely some good young defenseman that are hard for teams to protect (  Carolina - Hayden Fleury / Jake Bean, St. Louis - Dunn, Toronto - Holl or McDermott, Wild have 3 NMC's - thus Dumba, Oilers - Caleb Jones, NYR - idiot Deangelo, Flyers - Ghost, TBay - Eric Cernak, AVS - Devon Toews).    Scorers and good forwards on the other hand are harder to pluck off the expansion draft. Usually you have to internally draft or acquire them however Las Vegas had some surprises of Marchessault, Karlsson and then traded for Patches and Mark Stone. One of the jump starts was taking a big cap hit for Marc Andre Fleury. Erik Haula was the only RFA they took off unprotected lists. 

For sure. Its going to be very interesting.  The 7/3/1  F/D/G breakdowns means that pretty much every team should be leaving some decent players exposed. 

I presume the Kraken will get the same odds that Vegas got in the 2017 draft - meaning they could potentially get 1st overall but should, at worst, pick in the top 5 or 6 so its theoretically feasable that they could get a top line player who will step right on to their roster but for the most part they will likely be getting 2nd/3rd line talent and 2nd-3rd pairing defensmen to compliment that 1st rounder. 

As Vegas has shown, quality depth picking is not necessarily a bad thing because while most teams have distinct talent for each line, building an entire top 12 from other teams' 2nd & 3rd lines makes you a pretty decent team right off the bat. 

They also will have an opportunity to land some potentially strong UFA as this year could have a lot more than usual available with several teams struggling with both the economy & the cap. 

 

 

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On 3/29/2021 at 3:10 PM, claremont said:

Your examples need to be modified - Dallas protects either Bishop (big contract) or Khudobin  - not both. Fleury and Lehner ARE NOT available- they are under contract to Las Vegas who are exempt from protecting players. Campbell Will almost certainly be protected by the leafs unless Freddie Andersieve (not a typo I called him a sieve!) is resigned as he is UFA at end of year.
My statement still stands - IMO unless the Krakken dip into free agency to say sign Freddie,or another UFA/RFA, or Price or another top goalie waives his NMC, Jake Allen is in the top 3 goalies that would otherwise be unprotected. 

Thanks for being on my side. LOL

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On 3/29/2021 at 3:46 PM, maas_art said:

I definitely think he'll at least give them pause.  It certainly conceivable they may pick someone else (we still dont know who we're protecting but it seems clear at least a few quality players will be exposed) so maybe the Kraken dont have a lot of good choices at LW and pick Lekhonen (if he's left exposed) or maybe they grab whichever one of Chairot or Edmundson is left free if they want a big, decent LHD.  

But i would say that Allen is the odds-on favourite. I think he's most likely to get grabbed and, honestly, i think thats why MB signed him to the extension - knowing he'd be a solid, quality option for Seattle. 

Exactly right. I think Seattle will play mostly young players as well this year. They certainly may take on a few bad contracts for the right return though. Allen is in the top 3 options for goalies . If he keeps playing the way he's playing he just maybe the top option.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 3/30/2021 at 5:25 PM, claremont said:

What will be interesting is whether Ron Francis tries to get competitive quick or goes the long route of some picks and prospects. Vegas got pretty good fairly quick. With a clean slate of an $81.5 million cap, can he buy a core group? When you look at unprotected lists, barring side deals, there are likely some good young defenseman that are hard for teams to protect (  Carolina - Hayden Fleury / Jake Bean, St. Louis - Dunn, Toronto - Holl or McDermott, Wild have 3 NMC's - thus Dumba, Oilers - Caleb Jones, NYR - idiot Deangelo, Flyers - Ghost, TBay - Eric Cernak, AVS - Devon Toews).    Scorers and good forwards on the other hand are harder to pluck off the expansion draft. Usually you have to internally draft or acquire them however Las Vegas had some surprises of Marchessault, Karlsson and then traded for Patches and Mark Stone. One of the jump starts was taking a big cap hit for Marc Andre Fleury. Erik Haula was the only RFA they took off unprotected lists. 

The Seattle Draft will impact the free agency pool (they have a first rights exclusive signing period), and the protection list risks will present some trade opportunities. There are not IMO any quality centres of value in the FA pool unless you consider Danault to be part of our future and maybe the Krakken draft Dano if we don't commit prior to the deadline for Free Agency. 

IMO here are the potential centres exposed to Seattle and potential for trade - Bear in mind if we acquire one, it means exposing Lehkonen on our protection list - Moot point as other players on our unprotected roster have better value to the Krakken.  #1 Ryan Johansen - Nashville unfortunately carries a cap hit of $8M for another 4 years after this. I can only see us interested if Nashville traded him to us for Weber to control the retirement recapture penalty, He's over priced for the production and will be 29 end of July. Poile has said he is not losing Mattias Eckholm to the Krakken - so he either protects or trades Mattias or Ryan Jo. #2 Jared McCann - Pittsburgh - average 1/2 a point player. Certainly not elite but does provide RFA depth and perhaps as much value as resigned Danault. Maybe Burke/Hextall shop him vs. losing him for nothing. #3 Mason Appleton - 3rd liner but his stock is pointing upwards #4 - unless I missed something the rest don't have much value - Dylan Gambrell, Kyle Turris, Janne Kuokkanen, 

Conclusion - unlikely we find centre help to relieve pressure on NS, KK, Evans, Poehling thru either F/A or the expansion draft trades. If we want prospective centre depth without resigning Dano, we will likely have to give up some combination of roster player, prospects or draft choices in a trade. 

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Couple of questions.

1. If we leave Weber unprotected, and the Kraken take him, does the Cap hit that currently rests with the Preds regarding Weber retiring early, move to us, or does it stay with them. Or does it go to Seattle.

2. Is there a similar situation with Price, should he waive his no trade clause, and goes to Seattle. Are we on the hook for his 10 mil AAV if say he retires 3 years early

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24 minutes ago, Egee 53 said:

Couple of questions.

1. If we leave Weber unprotected, and the Kraken take him, does the Cap hit that currently rests with the Preds regarding Weber retiring early, move to us, or does it stay with them. Or does it go to Seattle.

2. Is there a similar situation with Price, should he waive his no trade clause, and goes to Seattle. Are we on the hook for his 10 mil AAV if say he retires 3 years early

Pretty sure the answer to #2 is no.

Not certain about Weber but i think it's still Nashville responsible for that Cap recapture penalty.

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53 minutes ago, Egee 53 said:

Couple of questions.

1. If we leave Weber unprotected, and the Kraken take him, does the Cap hit that currently rests with the Preds regarding Weber retiring early, move to us, or does it stay with them. Or does it go to Seattle.

2. Is there a similar situation with Price, should he waive his no trade clause, and goes to Seattle. Are we on the hook for his 10 mil AAV if say he retires 3 years early

So you have to remember why the recapture penalty was added. It was to penalize teams for trying to get around the salary cap by offereing ridiculous front loaded contracts, knowing the player would retire before he got to the last couple of years.  Lets say you had a guy who likely only had 2 years of prime playing left - you'd offer him $7m a year (just like every other team in the league) but because you're  rich team you could offer him 8 years at $7m per, but front-load it so he'd get $15m a year for the first couple & then when he declined, he'd just retire.

In Weber's case he has the classic front-loaded contract: $14m for the first 4 years then $12 for the next 2 and then $6 for a while etc then down to $3 and $1m.   

The recapture penalty is based on the "net cap benefit" - so if you're paying a guy $14m and his cap hit for the year is $7m  you accrue a net cap benefit hit of $7m   In the years after Weber signed his contract (and before he was traded) Nashville accrued a net cap benefit of $24 million dollars and change.  But the problem for them is that they werent able to lower it  from that point on because he was traded to us. Since 2018-19 he's actually been making less per season than his cap hit so even though we had a small recapture hit I believe we've actually gotten out from under any recapture penalty.  Nashville still is on the hook. Trading him doesnt affect that - unless we trade him back to Nashville where they can pay him $3m a year against a cap hit of $7.9 and actually bring down that Net Cap Benefit they are on the hook for. 

In price's case, his salary is moderately front-loaded but not anywhere near as drastically as Weber's was.  Its an oddly constructed salary - cap hit is $10.5 every year but actual salary is $15m, 15, 9.7, 13, 7.7, 8.5 etc  Im actually not sure how this works and ive never heard anything about a recapture penalty with Price but if there is one i think it would be quite minor based on the way its been structured. 

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Thanks Gentlemen. With that being the case, and with what I think are more than adequate replacements for both of them, perhaps our management can entice the Kraken into drafting one of them (and trade for the other ?).

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4 minutes ago, Egee 53 said:

Thanks Gentlemen. With that being the case, and with what I think are more than adequate replacements for both of them, perhaps our management can entice the Kraken into drafting one of them (and trade for the other ?).

If MB is still in charge of this team it's highly doubtful he exposes either.

BTW,,,, welcome to the forum.

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7 minutes ago, Egee 53 said:

Thanks Gentlemen. With that being the case, and with what I think are more than adequate replacements for both of them, perhaps our management can entice the Kraken into drafting one of them (and trade for the other ?).

 

Just now, H_T_L said:

If MB is still in charge of this team it's highly doubtful he exposes either.

BTW,,,, welcome to the forum.

Agree. I dont see MB letting either go tbh.   Maybe he has had a slight warming to Weber being traded after this year but honestly I think he still believes Weber and Price are his 2 best players.   

No player should be untouchable but i can understand MB saying Suzuki or CC or JK are "off limits" but when he adds guys like Weber and Price to that list (just last year) thats a GM thats a bit delusional imho. 

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It makes no sense to protect Weber and Price (assuming Price agrees to it). Romanov doesn't need to be protected, but of the rest my own view is that Petry is miles ahead of everyone else in terms of value to the team, then Kulak, then some combination of Edmundson or Chiarot. And I'd personally rather protect Fleury than Edmundson or Chiarot, but that's another discussion. Bottom line is this... we know that cap space is an asset and teams have traded 6-7M cap space for 1st round picks. 1st round picks!

So imagine this... if Seattle were to tell you they were going to take Chiarot or Kulak or Fleury or Edmundson (one of those is going to be the last guy that won't be protected in order to protect Weber), would you in essence make this trade: give them Weber instead in exchange for keeping that player AND one of three things:

 

1. Using that 7.8M to spend on a UFA of your choosing (Dougie Hamilton? RNH? Landeskog? Hall? Or a run at an RFA like Werenski?)

2. Taking on another team's 5-7M expiring contract and acquiring a 1st round draft choice from them in doing so (if TB offered you Palat and a 1st rounder to take the contract off their hands to fix cap woes for next year in exchange for a 4th round pick, you would be able to take on his 5.3M cap money for one year and recuperate that 1st for doing so. Or Florida with Anton Stralman.)

3. Making a trade with another team to take on a player they know they would lose in the ED (eg trading for Jake Bean in Carolina and using our last protected spot on Bean instead of Weber).

I'd very easily part with Shea Weber if I had some type of contingency plan for his cap space, and Weber's cap hit is for another 5 years... worst case scenario in this case is that they don't take him, in which case you've still gone and protected your 4th favorite defenceman and only given them access to your 5th favorite instead. It's a no-brainer for me.

Likewise with Price, I'm comfortable going into next year with Allen and Primeau and 10M in cap savings if Seattle chooses to take him. I think they'd have more interest in Price than Weber, but that also depends on the NMC clause being waived. Honestly, I think Price would waive it to move close to home and be the MAF for Seattle. I think the hold-up would be MB.

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