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The NHL draft


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I've posted a lot about how draft picks are hard to hit on after the 1st round and how lower round picks are almost all crapshoots. The key to getting good prospects is having top 10 picks. Thought it might be worth looking at a few of the drafts that are now maturing to see how players are doing:

1. 2018 draft...

- # of players in the top 10 who have played at least 50 NHL games: 7 (9 having played at least 19 games)

- in the 11-20 slots: 2 have played 50+ games, 8 have played at least 10 games

- In slots 21-31, 1 guy has played 50 games and 4 have played at least 10.

- The rest of the draft, no player has played more than 32 games and only 5 have played at least 20 from rounds 2-7 inclusive.

 

2. 2017 draft...

- In slots 1-10, 9 guys have played at least 50 games and all 10 have played at least 30.

- In slots 11-20, 4 guys have played 50 games and all have played at least 10 games.

- In slots 21-31, 3 guys have played at least 50 games and 9 have played at least 10.

- 4 guys from round 2 have played 50+ games.

- From rounds 3-7, only two guys have played 50+ games. Cale Fleury and his 41 games are the 3rd-most experienced player in that group. Fleury and Cayden Primeau are 2 of only 17 players from those 5 rounds to have even sniffed any NHL action thus far.

 

3. 2016 draft...

- 8 of 10 guys in slots 1-10 have played 100+ games.

- 3 of 10 in slots 11-20 have played 100+ games.

- 4 of 10 in slots 21-30 have played 100+ games

- From round 2, 4 guys have played 100+ games.

- From round 3-7, only 3 guys have played 100+ games including Victor Mete, who has the 2nd most experience in that group.

 

4. 2015 draft...

- 10 of 10 guys in slots 1-10 have played 100+ games.

- 7 of 10 guys in slots 11-20 have played 100+ games.

- 6 of 10 guys in slots 21-30 have played 100+ games.

- From round 2, 10 guys have played 100+ games.

- From rounds 3-7, 14 guys have played 100+ games.

 

All this to say that even without looking at productivity stats (which favor higher picks as well), there's a huge drop off in likelihood of "making the NHL" after the top 10 and another drop off after the 2nd round. Prospects from lower down rarely become regular NHLers, never mind becoming top 6 forwards or top 4 D men. When we talk about deficiencies in the Habs line-up, they have a decent amount of scoring depth but they lack top end talent. It's a longshot to ever get that in a draft if you're not drafting top 10.

Bottom line is that the team should be aiming to acquire lottery picks if possible and shouldn't be too worried about trading picks in the second half of the 2nd round or lower... better to acquire an asset via trade than to sit on a 3rd or 4th round pick!

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  • 4 weeks later...

Is it too early to think about the entry draft given the trade-offs with the Seattle Krakken for them to take Byron vs. Allen etc.? Should the habs trade up and target a player they like or trade down and gamble with multiple selections in lower rounds (the OHL players didn't even play games this year)

if I am targeting need for Habs as there isn't much difference in this draft as best available player, I would be trying to package our 2nd round pick with something else to move up from likely 50ish into a top 35 pick, so that we have picks say 19 and pick 35. At first round, I would be happy with Cole Sillinger (doubt he falls here), Mason McTavish, Xavier Bourgault, Zachary Bolduc, Zachary L'Heureux, Chaz Lucius, Sasha Pastujov. We need centres or LW's as primary targets or a RHD with a high ceiling. 

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5 hours ago, claremont said:

Is it too early to think about the entry draft given the trade-offs with the Seattle Krakken for them to take Byron vs. Allen etc.? Should the habs trade up and target a player they like or trade down and gamble with multiple selections in lower rounds (the OHL players didn't even play games this year)

if I am targeting need for Habs as there isn't much difference in this draft as best available player, I would be trying to package our 2nd round pick with something else to move up from likely 50ish into a top 35 pick, so that we have picks say 19 and pick 35. At first round, I would be happy with Cole Sillinger (doubt he falls here), Mason McTavish, Xavier Bourgault, Zachary Bolduc, Zachary L'Heureux, Chaz Lucius, Sasha Pastujov. We need centres or LW's as primary targets or a RHD with a high ceiling. 

This should be an interesting draft. More of a crap shoot. You will see which teams have the best scouting staff, as nobody's been able to really scout them lately.  Hope we do! We need to get LUCKY!

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