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GIJAYNE

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HOSSA RUMORS

First of all I’ll believe it when I see him skating in the Bell Center. Second, I do believe, whether it’s Hossa, Sundin, or who ever, someone is coming our way.

With respect to Hossa being traded for Ryder and Streit rumours, here’s my view on things. Ryder is a lost cause. Not to say he is not a talented player, nor that his career is over, but it doesn’t take a squad of gypsies to fore-see contract disagreements come this summer. When Ryder becomes a free agent once more, he will ask for as much money, if not more, compared to his current contract. As a player he believes in his abilities and will not want to sell him self short. Bob Gainey on the other hand was already reluctant to give Ryder his relatively large contract. He had offered considerably less, but took a roll of the dice when the natural-goal scorer asked for more money. The gamble is a loss for the GM, even if Ryder goes on a tear for the rest of the season. Ryder had a short life-term in Montreal unless he would be willing to take a pay cut to play here. Given his behaviour pattern during the last two summers, it is clear that he will not. With that said, giving up Ryder is a zero cost for the team, and could potentially be exactly what his career needs (think Mike Ribeiro) so it’s a win win.

Mark Streit on the other hand is a tough one to let go. Not because he’s super talented, nor because he (supposedly) replaces Sheldon Souray on the point for our PP (what a load of…) but mainly because he’s fairly good at various positions. He CAN play the point on the PP, he can play forward, he can kill penalties and he’s a defenseman by nature. Having a player like him (and Dandenault) on your roster at a cheap price is a great tool for any coach. He is to the roster what ducked-tape is to a man’s toolbox. He can fill any hole and do the job to within expectations.

The third point to consider is that Bob Gainey does not have the habit of giving up s huge price, not even a small price, for short term gains. If he brings over Hossa and let’s Streit go, you can bet a chicken and a half that Gainey has spoken with Hossa and foresees future benefits in terms of a long term signing.

So keeping all this in mind, IMO, if we’re offered Hossa with a contract extension, for Ryder and Streit, I’ll take Hossa hands down.

NL STANDINGS FEBRUARY 21, 2008:

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HOSSA RUMORS

First of all I’ll believe it when I see him skating in the Bell Center. Second, I do believe, whether it’s Hossa, Sundin, or who ever, someone is coming our way.

With respect to Hossa being traded for Ryder and Streit rumours, here’s my view on things. Ryder is a lost cause. Not to say he is not a talented player, nor that his career is over, but it doesn’t take a squad of gypsies to fore-see contract disagreements come this summer. When Ryder becomes a free agent once more, he will ask for as much money, if not more, compared to his current contract. As a player he believes in his abilities and will not want to sell him self short. Bob Gainey on the other hand was already reluctant to give Ryder his relatively large contract. He had offered considerably less, but took a roll of the dice when the natural-goal scorer asked for more money. The gamble is a loss for the GM, even if Ryder goes on a tear for the rest of the season. Ryder had a short life-term in Montreal unless he would be willing to take a pay cut to play here. Given his behaviour pattern during the last two summers, it is clear that he will not. With that said, giving up Ryder is a zero cost for the team, and could potentially be exactly what his career needs (think Mike Ribeiro) so it’s a win win.

Mark Streit on the other hand is a tough one to let go. Not because he’s super talented, nor because he (supposedly) replaces Sheldon Souray on the point for our PP (what a load of…) but mainly because he’s fairly good at various positions. He CAN play the point on the PP, he can play forward, he can kill penalties and he’s a defenseman by nature. Having a player like him (and Dandenault) on your roster at a cheap price is a great tool for any coach. He is to the roster what ducked-tape is to a man’s toolbox. He can fill any hole and do the job to within expectations.

The third point to consider is that Bob Gainey does not have the habit of giving up s huge price, not even a small price, for short term gains. If he brings over Hossa and let’s Streit go, you can bet a chicken and a half that Gainey has spoken with Hossa and foresees future benefits in terms of a long term signing.

So keeping all this in mind, IMO, if we’re offered Hossa with a contract extension, for Ryder and Streit, I’ll take Hossa hands down.

I agree... I'll beleive it when its done (though apparently Hab equipment has been ordered for Hossa :o )

That said... the asking price may be considerably higher than what is speculated and may even involve other players going both ways.

I, for one, do not agree that Ryder is a lost cause No. 1... finding a right hand shot that is a proven NHL goal-scorer is not an easy thing to do. It may just be that the dealing with Ryder is a two-way street and not entirely of his doing and negotiations may be better from here on in and acceptable for both sides (Ryder has to come down a notch in his demands, perhaps, and BG has to accept the value of such a player on the open market... the twain can meet).

Streit is indeed another issue for the price right now, but he to will most likely be asking for much more come UFA time. He has really only impressed me with his offensive skills and is not so great as a "D" IMO. He can and will be replaced I think (with the likes of others waiting in the wings on the farm).

In any case, I too believe BG will make a trade of some sort before or at the deadline... who, from where and for what, is still up in the air.

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HOSSA RUMORS

First of all I’ll believe it when I see him skating in the Bell Center. Second, I do believe, whether it’s Hossa, Sundin, or who ever, someone is coming our way.

With respect to Hossa being traded for Ryder and Streit rumours, here’s my view on things. Ryder is a lost cause. Not to say he is not a talented player, nor that his career is over, but it doesn’t take a squad of gypsies to fore-see contract disagreements come this summer. When Ryder becomes a free agent once more, he will ask for as much money, if not more, compared to his current contract. As a player he believes in his abilities and will not want to sell him self short. Bob Gainey on the other hand was already reluctant to give Ryder his relatively large contract. He had offered considerably less, but took a roll of the dice when the natural-goal scorer asked for more money. The gamble is a loss for the GM, even if Ryder goes on a tear for the rest of the season. Ryder had a short life-term in Montreal unless he would be willing to take a pay cut to play here. Given his behaviour pattern during the last two summers, it is clear that he will not. With that said, giving up Ryder is a zero cost for the team, and could potentially be exactly what his career needs (think Mike Ribeiro) so it’s a win win.

Mark Streit on the other hand is a tough one to let go. Not because he’s super talented, nor because he (supposedly) replaces Sheldon Souray on the point for our PP (what a load of…) but mainly because he’s fairly good at various positions. He CAN play the point on the PP, he can play forward, he can kill penalties and he’s a defenseman by nature. Having a player like him (and Dandenault) on your roster at a cheap price is a great tool for any coach. He is to the roster what ducked-tape is to a man’s toolbox. He can fill any hole and do the job to within expectations.

The third point to consider is that Bob Gainey does not have the habit of giving up s huge price, not even a small price, for short term gains. If he brings over Hossa and let’s Streit go, you can bet a chicken and a half that Gainey has spoken with Hossa and foresees future benefits in terms of a long term signing.

So keeping all this in mind, IMO, if we’re offered Hossa with a contract extension, for Ryder and Streit, I’ll take Hossa hands down.

NL STANDINGS FEBRUARY 21, 2008:

POST.jpg

a little more insightful then what we discussed this afternoon dagz(hi kindred and mrs kindred! w00t!) but i still stand on this isnt the year. not that i wont say no to a hossa or a sundin, but i just cant see it happening.

then again i cant see the habs finishing in first, or anywhere above 5th for that matter, and i dont see them winning the cup.

denial is a beautiful thing, and man do i hope im dead wrong! w00t!

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I agree... I'll beleive it when its done (though apparently Hab equipment has been ordered for Hossa :o )

That said... the asking price may be considerably higher than what is speculated and may even involve other players going both ways.

I, for one, do not agree that Ryder is a lost cause No. 1... finding a right hand shot that is a proven NHL goal-scorer is not an easy thing to do. It may just be that the dealing with Ryder is a two-way street and not entirely of his doing and negotiations may be better from here on in and acceptable for both sides (Ryder has to come down a notch in his demands, perhaps, and BG has to accept the value of such a player on the open market... the twain can meet).

Streit is indeed another issue for the price right now, but he to will most likely be asking for much more come UFA time. He has really only impressed me with his offensive skills and is not so great as a "D" IMO. He can and will be replaced I think (with the likes of others waiting in the wings on the farm).

In any case, I too believe BG will make a trade of some sort before or at the deadline... who, from where and for what, is still up in the air.

personally i think neither should go. ryder needs to get his skates back under him and a pay cut should help him do just that. 2 mil max. streit has done very well for himself, but im aiming that BG will still want to see what else he can bring to this team. 1.5-2 mil a season.

keep the team as is, they havent disapointed us yet.

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Guest hatethoseleafs
a little more insightful then what we discussed this afternoon dagz(hi kindred and mrs kindred! w00t!) but i still stand on this isnt the year. not that i wont say no to a hossa or a sundin, but i just cant see it happening.

then again i cant see the habs finishing in first, or anywhere above 5th for that matter, and i dont see them winning the cup.

denial is a beautiful thing, and man do i hope im dead wrong! w00t!

I felt that same way in 93 Mat. Never say never. ;):D

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Guest hatethoseleafs

Found this on the Leafs Forum. For anybody who thinks our calculations are tough to follow then you'll be amused by this beauty. :lol:

Elimination Numbers

(E = 31, Updated February 20, 2008)

EvOtt = 26

EvNJ = 26

EvCar = 36

EvMtl = 26

EvPit = 28

EvNYR = 33

EvBos = 35

EvPhi = 35

------------

EvBuf = 35

EvNYI = 36

EvWash = 38

EvAtl = 39

EvFla = 41

EvTB = 44

Note: I've added the elimination numbers for all the teams in the Eastern Conference. If the elimination number versus eight or more of these teams is equal to or less than zero then we're eliminated from the playoffs.*

I'm getting a bit tired of all the "yes they can"/"no they can't" repartee about the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs, so I did some number crunching. Here are the results.

If the Leafs win all their remaining games they'll have a total of 105 points, an unlikely scenario to be sure, but possible. Like a hedge between us and the eighth playoff spot, however, are six teams: Buffalo, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, the Islanders, and Florida. Also vying for that spot are the Tampa Bay Lightning.*

In the best case scenario, these teams lose all their games to the Leafs and to the non-hedge teams, but because these teams are also playing each other there are a large number of points which must go to one or another of them. Below is a list of the teams competing for the eighth spot, their current point totals, a list of their games against other hedge teams, and a set of outcomes that would yield the lowest possible point total for our nearest competitor.

Buffalo, 62 points: +2 games vs. Boston, +1 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Tampa

Boston, 61 points: -2 games vs. Buffalo, -2 games vs. Florida, +3 games vs. Washington, -1 game vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Washington, 59 points: -3 games vs. Boston, +3 games vs. Atlanta, --/+3 games vs. Florida, -1 game vs. Buffalo, -1 game vs. Islanders, ++/-3 games vs. Tampa

Atlanta, 58 points: +++/-4 games vs. Florida, -3 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Islanders, +1 game vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Islanders, 57 points: +2 games vs. Florida, +2 games vs. Atlanta, +1 game vs. Washington, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Florida, 57 points: ---/+4 games vs. Atlanta, ++/-3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Boston, -2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Tampa Bay, 54 points: +/--3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Buffalo, +/-2 games vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Florida

Lowest Possible Point Totals

Buffalo 68 points

Boston 69 points

Washington 70 points

Atlanta 68 points

Islanders 69 points

Florida 69 points

Tampa 68 points

Although our nearest possible competitor needn't be Washington (Buffalo, Atlanta and Tampa could all conceivably pick up a game against the Capitals), 70 is the lowest possible number of points that our nearest competitor could earn. Subtract that from our best possible total (105 - 70 = 35) and you get our base elimination number (E). For every game we lose in regulation, subtract two points from E. For every game we lose in overtime, subtract one point from E. If E = 0 then we're almost certainly eliminated.

Of course the other teams' performance factors in too. The equation to determine whether we've been eliminated by a given team looks like this: EvTeam = E - (Team_Pts - 70). If EvTeam = 0, then that team has probably eliminated us.**

EvTeam Calculations vs. Hedge Teams

EvBuf = 43

EvBos = 45

EvWash = 47

EvAtl = 48

EvNYI = 49

EvFla = 49

EvTB= 52

Every one of those numbers must remain greater (or in certain circumstances equal to) zero in order for the Leafs to make the playoffs. Since none of these numbers is currently less than or equal to zero, the Leafs still have a shot at making the playoffs.

It seems fairly reasonable, however, to assume that at least one of the hedge teams will end up with at least 90 points. The EvTeam value versus a 90 point team would be 15, so from a practical standpoint, the Leafs can't drop more than seven of the next twenty-five games and reasonably expect a playoff berth. That concurs with most of the analysis I've seen so far.

So the final word on the issue of whether or not the Leafs can make the playoffs is, "Yes, but it isn't likely."

~N~

*On my first run through I discounted Tampa Bay on the grounds that they were behind us, so I allowed them to win all their games against the hedge teams. This netted Tampa Bay 26 points, giving them a total of 80 points and making them our nearest competitor.

**It is possible for EvTeam to equal zero without having eliminated us, but this would require that they have an equal or greater number of overtime losses. If EvTeam = 0, then check the tie breaking procedures.

*See the above note for situations in which the EvTeam number may equal zero without them having eliminated us. Also, since the top three spots are reserved for the division leaders, two of them could theoretically clinch a playoff spot without eliminating us at all.

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Guest Cenner Hice
Found this on the Leafs Forum. For anybody who thinks our calculations are tough to follow then you'll be amused by this beauty. :lol:

Elimination Numbers

(E = 31, Updated February 20, 2008)

EvOtt = 26

EvNJ = 26

EvCar = 36

EvMtl = 26

EvPit = 28

EvNYR = 33

EvBos = 35

EvPhi = 35

------------

EvBuf = 35

EvNYI = 36

EvWash = 38

EvAtl = 39

EvFla = 41

EvTB = 44

Note: I've added the elimination numbers for all the teams in the Eastern Conference. If the elimination number versus eight or more of these teams is equal to or less than zero then we're eliminated from the playoffs.*

I'm getting a bit tired of all the "yes they can"/"no they can't" repartee about the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs, so I did some number crunching. Here are the results.

If the Leafs win all their remaining games they'll have a total of 105 points, an unlikely scenario to be sure, but possible. Like a hedge between us and the eighth playoff spot, however, are six teams: Buffalo, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, the Islanders, and Florida. Also vying for that spot are the Tampa Bay Lightning.*

In the best case scenario, these teams lose all their games to the Leafs and to the non-hedge teams, but because these teams are also playing each other there are a large number of points which must go to one or another of them. Below is a list of the teams competing for the eighth spot, their current point totals, a list of their games against other hedge teams, and a set of outcomes that would yield the lowest possible point total for our nearest competitor.

Buffalo, 62 points: +2 games vs. Boston, +1 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Tampa

Boston, 61 points: -2 games vs. Buffalo, -2 games vs. Florida, +3 games vs. Washington, -1 game vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Washington, 59 points: -3 games vs. Boston, +3 games vs. Atlanta, --/+3 games vs. Florida, -1 game vs. Buffalo, -1 game vs. Islanders, ++/-3 games vs. Tampa

Atlanta, 58 points: +++/-4 games vs. Florida, -3 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Islanders, +1 game vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Islanders, 57 points: +2 games vs. Florida, +2 games vs. Atlanta, +1 game vs. Washington, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Florida, 57 points: ---/+4 games vs. Atlanta, ++/-3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Boston, -2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Tampa Bay, 54 points: +/--3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Buffalo, +/-2 games vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Florida

Lowest Possible Point Totals

Buffalo 68 points

Boston 69 points

Washington 70 points

Atlanta 68 points

Islanders 69 points

Florida 69 points

Tampa 68 points

Although our nearest possible competitor needn't be Washington (Buffalo, Atlanta and Tampa could all conceivably pick up a game against the Capitals), 70 is the lowest possible number of points that our nearest competitor could earn. Subtract that from our best possible total (105 - 70 = 35) and you get our base elimination number (E). For every game we lose in regulation, subtract two points from E. For every game we lose in overtime, subtract one point from E. If E = 0 then we're almost certainly eliminated.

Of course the other teams' performance factors in too. The equation to determine whether we've been eliminated by a given team looks like this: EvTeam = E - (Team_Pts - 70). If EvTeam = 0, then that team has probably eliminated us.**

EvTeam Calculations vs. Hedge Teams

EvBuf = 43

EvBos = 45

EvWash = 47

EvAtl = 48

EvNYI = 49

EvFla = 49

EvTB= 52

Every one of those numbers must remain greater (or in certain circumstances equal to) zero in order for the Leafs to make the playoffs. Since none of these numbers is currently less than or equal to zero, the Leafs still have a shot at making the playoffs.

It seems fairly reasonable, however, to assume that at least one of the hedge teams will end up with at least 90 points. The EvTeam value versus a 90 point team would be 15, so from a practical standpoint, the Leafs can't drop more than seven of the next twenty-five games and reasonably expect a playoff berth. That concurs with most of the analysis I've seen so far.

So the final word on the issue of whether or not the Leafs can make the playoffs is, "Yes, but it isn't likely."

~N~

*On my first run through I discounted Tampa Bay on the grounds that they were behind us, so I allowed them to win all their games against the hedge teams. This netted Tampa Bay 26 points, giving them a total of 80 points and making them our nearest competitor.

**It is possible for EvTeam to equal zero without having eliminated us, but this would require that they have an equal or greater number of overtime losses. If EvTeam = 0, then check the tie breaking procedures.

*See the above note for situations in which the EvTeam number may equal zero without them having eliminated us. Also, since the top three spots are reserved for the division leaders, two of them could theoretically clinch a playoff spot without eliminating us at all.

:blink:

I read all that and here's a summary:

Laffs chances = Zero

;)

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I felt that same way in 93 Mat. Never say never. ;):D
dont jynx it!!! ;)
Found this on the Leafs Forum. For anybody who thinks our calculations are tough to follow then you'll be amused by this beauty. :lol:Elimination Numbers(E = 31, Updated February 20, 2008)EvOtt = 26EvNJ = 26EvCar = 36EvMtl = 26EvPit = 28EvNYR = 33EvBos = 35EvPhi = 35------------EvBuf = 35EvNYI = 36EvWash = 38EvAtl = 39EvFla = 41EvTB = 44Note: I've added the elimination numbers for all the teams in the Eastern Conference. If the elimination number versus eight or more of these teams is equal to or less than zero then we're eliminated from the playoffs.*I'm getting a bit tired of all the "yes they can"/"no they can't" repartee about the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs, so I did some number crunching. Here are the results.If the Leafs win all their remaining games they'll have a total of 105 points, an unlikely scenario to be sure, but possible. Like a hedge between us and the eighth playoff spot, however, are six teams: Buffalo, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, the Islanders, and Florida. Also vying for that spot are the Tampa Bay Lightning.*In the best case scenario, these teams lose all their games to the Leafs and to the non-hedge teams, but because these teams are also playing each other there are a large number of points which must go to one or another of them. Below is a list of the teams competing for the eighth spot, their current point totals, a list of their games against other hedge teams, and a set of outcomes that would yield the lowest possible point total for our nearest competitor.Buffalo, 62 points: +2 games vs. Boston, +1 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. TampaBoston, 61 points: -2 games vs. Buffalo, -2 games vs. Florida, +3 games vs. Washington, -1 game vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. TampaWashington, 59 points: -3 games vs. Boston, +3 games vs. Atlanta, --/+3 games vs. Florida, -1 game vs. Buffalo, -1 game vs. Islanders, ++/-3 games vs. TampaAtlanta, 58 points: +++/-4 games vs. Florida, -3 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Islanders, +1 game vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. TampaIslanders, 57 points: +2 games vs. Florida, +2 games vs. Atlanta, +1 game vs. Washington, +/-2 games vs. TampaFlorida, 57 points: ---/+4 games vs. Atlanta, ++/-3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Boston, -2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. TampaTampa Bay, 54 points: +/--3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Buffalo, +/-2 games vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. FloridaLowest Possible Point TotalsBuffalo 68 pointsBoston 69 pointsWashington 70 pointsAtlanta 68 pointsIslanders 69 pointsFlorida 69 pointsTampa 68 pointsAlthough our nearest possible competitor needn't be Washington (Buffalo, Atlanta and Tampa could all conceivably pick up a game against the Capitals), 70 is the lowest possible number of points that our nearest competitor could earn. Subtract that from our best possible total (105 - 70 = 35) and you get our base elimination number (E). For every game we lose in regulation, subtract two points from E. For every game we lose in overtime, subtract one point from E. If E = 0 then we're almost certainly eliminated.Of course the other teams' performance factors in too. The equation to determine whether we've been eliminated by a given team looks like this: EvTeam = E - (Team_Pts - 70). If EvTeam = 0, then that team has probably eliminated us.**EvTeam Calculations vs. Hedge TeamsEvBuf = 43EvBos = 45EvWash = 47EvAtl = 48EvNYI = 49EvFla = 49EvTB= 52Every one of those numbers must remain greater (or in certain circumstances equal to) zero in order for the Leafs to make the playoffs. Since none of these numbers is currently less than or equal to zero, the Leafs still have a shot at making the playoffs.It seems fairly reasonable, however, to assume that at least one of the hedge teams will end up with at least 90 points. The EvTeam value versus a 90 point team would be 15, so from a practical standpoint, the Leafs can't drop more than seven of the next twenty-five games and reasonably expect a playoff berth. That concurs with most of the analysis I've seen so far.So the final word on the issue of whether or not the Leafs can make the playoffs is, "Yes, but it isn't likely."~N~*On my first run through I discounted Tampa Bay on the grounds that they were behind us, so I allowed them to win all their games against the hedge teams. This netted Tampa Bay 26 points, giving them a total of 80 points and making them our nearest competitor.**It is possible for EvTeam to equal zero without having eliminated us, but this would require that they have an equal or greater number of overtime losses. If EvTeam = 0, then check the tie breaking procedures.*See the above note for situations in which the EvTeam number may equal zero without them having eliminated us. Also, since the top three spots are reserved for the division leaders, two of them could theoretically clinch a playoff spot without eliminating us at all.
DAAAAGZ! im scared....-Matt
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Found this on the Leafs Forum. For anybody who thinks our calculations are tough to follow then you'll be amused by this beauty. :lol:

Elimination Numbers

(E = 31, Updated February 20, 2008)

EvOtt = 26

EvNJ = 26

EvCar = 36

EvMtl = 26

EvPit = 28

EvNYR = 33

EvBos = 35

EvPhi = 35

------------

EvBuf = 35

EvNYI = 36

EvWash = 38

EvAtl = 39

EvFla = 41

EvTB = 44

Note: I've added the elimination numbers for all the teams in the Eastern Conference. If the elimination number versus eight or more of these teams is equal to or less than zero then we're eliminated from the playoffs.*

I'm getting a bit tired of all the "yes they can"/"no they can't" repartee about the Leafs' chances of making the playoffs, so I did some number crunching. Here are the results.

If the Leafs win all their remaining games they'll have a total of 105 points, an unlikely scenario to be sure, but possible. Like a hedge between us and the eighth playoff spot, however, are six teams: Buffalo, Boston, Washington, Atlanta, the Islanders, and Florida. Also vying for that spot are the Tampa Bay Lightning.*

In the best case scenario, these teams lose all their games to the Leafs and to the non-hedge teams, but because these teams are also playing each other there are a large number of points which must go to one or another of them. Below is a list of the teams competing for the eighth spot, their current point totals, a list of their games against other hedge teams, and a set of outcomes that would yield the lowest possible point total for our nearest competitor.

Buffalo, 62 points: +2 games vs. Boston, +1 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Tampa

Boston, 61 points: -2 games vs. Buffalo, -2 games vs. Florida, +3 games vs. Washington, -1 game vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Washington, 59 points: -3 games vs. Boston, +3 games vs. Atlanta, --/+3 games vs. Florida, -1 game vs. Buffalo, -1 game vs. Islanders, ++/-3 games vs. Tampa

Atlanta, 58 points: +++/-4 games vs. Florida, -3 games vs. Washington, -2 games vs. Islanders, +1 game vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Islanders, 57 points: +2 games vs. Florida, +2 games vs. Atlanta, +1 game vs. Washington, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Florida, 57 points: ---/+4 games vs. Atlanta, ++/-3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Boston, -2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Tampa

Tampa Bay, 54 points: +/--3 games vs. Washington, +2 games vs. Buffalo, +/-2 games vs. Boston, +/-2 games vs. Atlanta, +/-2 games vs. Islanders, +/-2 games vs. Florida

Lowest Possible Point Totals

Buffalo 68 points

Boston 69 points

Washington 70 points

Atlanta 68 points

Islanders 69 points

Florida 69 points

Tampa 68 points

Although our nearest possible competitor needn't be Washington (Buffalo, Atlanta and Tampa could all conceivably pick up a game against the Capitals), 70 is the lowest possible number of points that our nearest competitor could earn. Subtract that from our best possible total (105 - 70 = 35) and you get our base elimination number (E). For every game we lose in regulation, subtract two points from E. For every game we lose in overtime, subtract one point from E. If E = 0 then we're almost certainly eliminated.

Of course the other teams' performance factors in too. The equation to determine whether we've been eliminated by a given team looks like this: EvTeam = E - (Team_Pts - 70). If EvTeam = 0, then that team has probably eliminated us.**

EvTeam Calculations vs. Hedge Teams

EvBuf = 43

EvBos = 45

EvWash = 47

EvAtl = 48

EvNYI = 49

EvFla = 49

EvTB= 52

Every one of those numbers must remain greater (or in certain circumstances equal to) zero in order for the Leafs to make the playoffs. Since none of these numbers is currently less than or equal to zero, the Leafs still have a shot at making the playoffs.

It seems fairly reasonable, however, to assume that at least one of the hedge teams will end up with at least 90 points. The EvTeam value versus a 90 point team would be 15, so from a practical standpoint, the Leafs can't drop more than seven of the next twenty-five games and reasonably expect a playoff berth. That concurs with most of the analysis I've seen so far.

So the final word on the issue of whether or not the Leafs can make the playoffs is, "Yes, but it isn't likely."

~N~

*On my first run through I discounted Tampa Bay on the grounds that they were behind us, so I allowed them to win all their games against the hedge teams. This netted Tampa Bay 26 points, giving them a total of 80 points and making them our nearest competitor.

**It is possible for EvTeam to equal zero without having eliminated us, but this would require that they have an equal or greater number of overtime losses. If EvTeam = 0, then check the tie breaking procedures.

*See the above note for situations in which the EvTeam number may equal zero without them having eliminated us. Also, since the top three spots are reserved for the division leaders, two of them could theoretically clinch a playoff spot without eliminating us at all.

:blink: very user friendly :lol:

This is by far the most complicated way of confirming that the Leafs suck I have ever seen.

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Good morning folks. I'm on the run again this morning and I'm joinning in on the fun via my pocket pc and an unsecured wireless network of a gentlemen named Jacques P.

Needless to say I don't have the appropriate spreadsheets and tools in order to update my MN numbers. Maybe matt or NWT could jump in or we can follow that hack's gibberish from the TML boards.

I will post the appropriate updates later today or tomorrow morning. In the meanwhile remember: Leafs suck, Le Journal de Montreal is a glorified tabloid, and don't cancel the cup parade yet...we're still in great shape.

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Guest hatethoseleafs

Our remaining games--11 HOME --9 Road

Back To Back Games in RED

Blue Jackets Canadiens ( Feb 23 )

Thrashers Canadiens [/b] ( Feb 26 )

Canadiens Sabres ( Feb 29 )

Devils Canadiens ( Mar 1 )

Canadiens Sharks ( Mar 3 )

Canadiens Coyotes ( Mar 6 )

Canadiens Kings ( Mar 8 )

Canadiens Ducks ( Mar 9 )

Devils Canadiens ( Mar 11 )

Senators Canadiens ( Mar 13 )

Islanders Canadiens ( Mar 15 )

Blues Canadiens ( Mar 18 )

Canadiens Bruins ( Mar 20 )

Bruins Canadiens ( Mar 22)

Senators Canadiens ( Mar 24 )

Canadiens Sabres ( Mar 28 )

Canadiens Maple Leafs ( Mar 29 )

Canadiens Senators ( Apr 1 )

Sabres Canadiens ( Apr 3 )

Maple Leafs Canadiens ( Apr 5 )

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Good morning folks. I'm on the run again this morning and I'm joinning in on the fun via my pocket pc and an unsecured wireless network of a gentlemen named Jacques P.

Needless to say I don't have the appropriate spreadsheets and tools in order to update my MN numbers. Maybe matt or NWT could jump in or we can follow that hack's gibberish from the TML boards.

I will post the appropriate updates later today or tomorrow morning. In the meanwhile remember: Leafs suck, Le Journal de Montreal is a glorified tabloid, and don't cancel the cup parade yet...we're still in great shape.

im on the out today as well...so were all going to have to be a little patient.

-Matt

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Guest hatethoseleafs

QUOTE(paul_b @ Feb 22 2008, 09:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I heard on one of the sports shows that Montreal has to win 8 of their remaining games to clinch a spot.

Can anyone confirm this statistic??

Go Habs Go!!

Thats not a mathematical certainty. Its possible thats all we'll need however,,,, if you want a guarantee then check out the sticky thread above to get the latest number.

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Good morning folks. I'm on the run again this morning and I'm joinning in on the fun via my pocket pc and an unsecured wireless network of a gentlemen named Jacques P.

Needless to say I don't have the appropriate spreadsheets and tools in order to update my MN numbers. Maybe matt or NWT could jump in or we can follow that hack's gibberish from the TML boards.

I will post the appropriate updates later today or tomorrow morning. In the meanwhile remember: Leafs suck, Le Journal de Montreal is a glorified tabloid, and don't cancel the cup parade yet...we're still in great shape.

Here it is in the old style:

MN_Standings_East.png

MN_Signature.png

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MN Bonus available for 2008.02.23:

...2 bonuses - if 2 of the following 3 happen:

...... NY Rangers lose in regulation to Buffalo

...... Philadelphia loses in regulation to Florida

...... NY Islanders lose to New Jersey

...1 bonus - if EITHER NY Rangers or Philadelphia lose

Home-ice Bonus

...1 or 2 bonuses - if EITHER New Jersey or Pittsburg (vs Ottawa) lose

Conference/Division Bonus

...1 or 2 bonuses - if Ottawa loses to Pittsburg (only 1 bonus available in the case for MN Conference)

MN pace - 2.1 points per habs game

Next MN milestone: 25 - current Mn forecast: Mar. 3rd

Member predictions:

#1 - Mar 1st, vs. NJ (made on Feb.6, MN 46)

Admiral - Mar 3rd, vs. SJ (Feb.6, MN 46)

Chocolate - Feb 26th, vs. Atl (Feb.8, MN 44)

CH - Mar 6th, vs Phx (Feb 13, MN 43)

Reached milestones:

MN 125 - Nov.13th, predicted by AK (Oct. 29, MN 141)

MN 99 - Dec.15th, predicted by HLD (Nov. 15, MN 123)

MN 75 - Jan.8th, predicted by HHFR (Dec. 22, MN 99)

MN 50 - Feb.2nd, predicted by mateus (Jan. 15, MN 71)

MN on Oct. 2 was - 165

MN on Oct. 31 was - 139 (drop by 26 in 11 games, pace 2.36)

MN on Nov. 30 was - 113 (drop by 26 in 14 games, pace 1.86)

MN on Dec. 31 was - 86 (drop by 27 in 14 games, pace 1.92)

MN on Jan. 31 was - 52 (drop by 34 in 12 games, pace 2.83)

Current MN - 34 (drop by 18 in 10 games in February, pace 1.80)

Note, the pace of 2 MN points per habs game is the border line between playoffs and golf pastures. If the pace is higher then 2, the habs are heading to the playoffs. If it is less than 2, we are out. If it is exactly 2, it is a tie break situation.

MN forecast by the end of February - 28 (at the beginning of February the forecast was 21, the best is 21 and the worst 28).

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MN Bonus available for 2008.02.23:

...2 bonuses - if 2 of the following 3 happen:

...... NY Rangers lose in regulation to Buffalo

...... Philadelphia loses in regulation to Florida

...... NY Islanders lose to New Jersey

...1 bonus - if EITHER NY Rangers or Philadelphia lose

Home-ice Bonus

...1 or 2 bonuses - if EITHER New Jersey or Pittsburg (vs Ottawa) lose

Conference/Division Bonus

...1 or 2 bonuses - if Ottawa loses to Pittsburg (only 1 bonus available in the case for MN Conference)

MN pace - 2.1 points per habs game

Next MN milestone: 25 - current Mn forecast: Mar. 3rd

Member predictions:

#1 - Mar 1st, vs. NJ (made on Feb.6, MN 46)

Admiral - Mar 3rd, vs. SJ (Feb.6, MN 46)

Chocolate - Feb 26th, vs. Atl (Feb.8, MN 44)

CH - Mar 6th, vs Phx (Feb 13, MN 43)

Reached milestones:

MN 125 - Nov.13th, predicted by AK (Oct. 29, MN 141)

MN 99 - Dec.15th, predicted by HLD (Nov. 15, MN 123)

MN 75 - Jan.8th, predicted by HHFR (Dec. 22, MN 99)

MN 50 - Feb.2nd, predicted by mateus (Jan. 15, MN 71)

MN on Oct. 2 was - 165

MN on Oct. 31 was - 139 (drop by 26 in 11 games, pace 2.36)

MN on Nov. 30 was - 113 (drop by 26 in 14 games, pace 1.86)

MN on Dec. 31 was - 86 (drop by 27 in 14 games, pace 1.92)

MN on Jan. 31 was - 52 (drop by 34 in 12 games, pace 2.83)

Current MN - 34 (drop by 18 in 10 games in February, pace 1.80)

Note, the pace of 2 MN points per habs game is the border line between playoffs and golf pastures. If the pace is higher then 2, the habs are heading to the playoffs. If it is less than 2, we are out. If it is exactly 2, it is a tie break situation.

MN forecast by the end of February - 28 (at the beginning of February the forecast was 21, the best is 21 and the worst 28).

finally a 4pt night, its been awhile...... getting anxious to get clinched here

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HLD_sig.jpg

Retiring #23

As we’re all aware today is the retirement of Bob Gainey’s number. I won’t sit here and even attempt to try and put on paper what Mr. Gainey has given to this team and continues to do so today. Needless to say I neither have the intellectual capacity, nor the vocabulary to describe the shear greatness, honour, loyalty and sincere devotion for the team # 23 has had.

Over and above his illustrious hockey career he was a great sportsman. His skills and hockey ethic were such that it merited a trophy to be introduced in to the National Hockey League in order to recognise the niche in which Bob Gainey perfected an integral part of hockey as we know it today.

His devotion to the team and the Montreal Canadiens Organization is unquestionable even today. We’re not only lucky to have had him playing on our roster but now we are equally blessed to have such a devoted fan and connoisseur of the sport who happens to be a loyal and devoted fan and member of the organisation, lead the way as our General Managers to bring this team to levels it has not even dared to dream of reaching in over a decade.

Tonight’s homage is overdue and will prove to be one of the most memorable moments on center ice at the Bell Center. Congratulations Bob, this is a well deserved honor. Your family, wife and daughter who are watching over your, fans and supporters are all with you celebrating this great moment.

NL STANDINGS FEBRUARY 23:

POST.jpg

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Guest Cenner Hice
HLD_sig.jpg

Retiring #23

As we’re all aware today is the retirement of Bob Gainey’s number. I won’t sit here and even attempt to try and put on paper what Mr. Gainey has given to this team and continues to do so today. Needless to say I neither have the intellectual capacity, nor the vocabulary to describe the shear greatness, honour, loyalty and sincere devotion for the team # 23 has had.

Over and above his illustrious hockey career he was a great sportsman. His skills and hockey ethic were such that it merited a trophy to be introduced in to the National Hockey League in order to recognise the niche in which Bob Gainey perfected an integral part of hockey as we know it today.

His devotion to the team and the Montreal Canadiens Organization is unquestionable even today. We’re not only lucky to have had him playing on our roster but now we are equally blessed to have such a devoted fan and connoisseur of the sport who happens to be a loyal and devoted fan and member of the organisation, lead the way as our General Managers to bring this team to levels it has not even dared to dream of reaching in over a decade.

Tonight’s homage is overdue and will prove to be one of the most memorable moments on center ice at the Bell Center. Congratulations Bob, this is a well deserved honor. Your family, wife and daughter who are watching over your, fans and supporters are all with you celebrating this great moment.

NL STANDINGS FEBRUARY 23:

POST.jpg

Perfectly put, Dags.

I haven't looked to see if there's a thread for #23, but if there is, can I suggest you reiterate this there (unless you already have).

Obviously I don't know him, but sometimes in life, I think a person is a "decent chap". Bob Gainey is one of them.

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Guest hatethoseleafs

Retiring #23

As we’re all aware today is the retirement of Bob Gainey’s number. I won’t sit here and even attempt to try and put on paper what Mr. Gainey has given to this team and continues to do so today. Needless to say I neither have the intellectual capacity, nor the vocabulary to describe the shear greatness, honour, loyalty and sincere devotion for the team # 23 has had.

Over and above his illustrious hockey career he was a great sportsman. His skills and hockey ethic were such that it merited a trophy to be introduced in to the National Hockey League in order to recognise the niche in which Bob Gainey perfected an integral part of hockey as we know it today.

His devotion to the team and the Montreal Canadiens Organization is unquestionable even today. We’re not only lucky to have had him playing on our roster but now we are equally blessed to have such a devoted fan and connoisseur of the sport who happens to be a loyal and devoted fan and member of the organisation, lead the way as our General Managers to bring this team to levels it has not even dared to dream of reaching in over a decade.

Tonight’s homage is overdue and will prove to be one of the most memorable moments on center ice at the Bell Center. Congratulations Bob, this is a well deserved honor. Your family, wife and daughter who are watching over your, fans and supporters are all with you celebrating this great moment.

HERE HERE....one of the greats ;)

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MN Bonus available for 2008.02.24:

...1 bonus - if NY Rangers lose in regulation to Florida

Home-ice Bonus

...2 bonuses - if New Jersey loses in regulation to Washington AND Pittsburg loses to San Jose

...1 bonus - if New Jersey loses

MN pace - 2.1 points per habs game

Next MN milestone: 25 - current Mn forecast: Mar. 3rd

Member predictions:

#1 - Mar 1st, vs. NJ (made on Feb.6, MN 46)

Admiral - Mar 3rd, vs. SJ (Feb.6, MN 46)

Chocolate - Feb 26th, vs. Atl (Feb.8, MN 44)

CH - Mar 6th, vs Phx (Feb 13, MN 43)

Reached milestones:

MN 125 - Nov.13th, predicted by AK (Oct. 29, MN 141)

MN 99 - Dec.15th, predicted by HLD (Nov. 15, MN 123)

MN 75 - Jan.8th, predicted by HHFR (Dec. 22, MN 99)

MN 50 - Feb.2nd, predicted by mateus (Jan. 15, MN 71)

MN on Oct. 2 was - 165

MN on Oct. 31 was - 139 (drop by 26 in 11 games, pace 2.36)

MN on Nov. 30 was - 113 (drop by 26 in 14 games, pace 1.86)

MN on Dec. 31 was - 86 (drop by 27 in 14 games, pace 1.92)

MN on Jan. 31 was - 52 (drop by 34 in 12 games, pace 2.83)

Current MN - 33 (drop by 19 in 12 games in February, pace 1.58)

Note, the pace of 2 MN points per habs game is the border line between playoffs and golf pastures. If the pace is higher then 2, the habs are heading to the playoffs. If it is less than 2, we are out. If it is exactly 2, it is a tie break situation.

MN forecast by the end of February - 29 (at the beginning of February the forecast was 21, the best is 21 and the worst 29).

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