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Which Rfa Would You Sign An Offer Sheet To And How Much?


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with the lack of depth for ufa this year do ya think the Habs should try to get a younger player through the rfa offer sheet process? if so who and for how much? here's some players that have some promise and are RFAs

in no particular order

corey perry wojtek wolski marek svatos patrick sharp igor grigorenko jay bowmeester patrick o'sullivan

pierre-marc bouchard shea weber nigel dawes andres meszaros jef carter daniel carcillo alexei kaigorodov

joe pavelski mike green

I fixed the title - changed Who to How - 1970 Habs

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I like most of the players mentioned there but I am thinking who would most fit in with Gaineys 'vision' for the future? I like Wolski and Svatos but would they make us any better in the mould of what we hope to achieve?

What compensation goes to the team who loses an RFA player? Is it draft picks like the NFL?

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The compensation can be discouraging for a premium player, though. up to four first-round picks for an offer sheet of more than $5.85 million a year. The compensation for a player offered $3.51 million to $4.68 million a year is a first-, second- and third-round pick. For an offer of $4.68 million to $5.85 million, it's two first-round picks, a second and a third. And a player earning more than $5.85 million would require four first-round picks as compensation. There would be no compensation for players getting an offer of less than $773,000.

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Call me old school but I do not think the RFA offer sheet is a good idea. With all the kids/prospects coming up I think Gainey may not want to ***** any GM off too much since the RFA offer sheet can come back and bit us in the bottom

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Call me old school but I do not think the RFA offer sheet is a good idea. With all the kids/prospects coming up I think Gainey may not want to ***** any GM off too much since the RFA offer sheet can come back and bit us in the bottom

agreed. it's also a sure-fire way to overspend.

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I do think Corey Perry is going to get offers, albeit not from us. Brian Burke was quoted on CBC as saying he wouldn't be able to sign him until after July 1st, which made Anaheim vulnerable to offer sheets from other clubs. Corey Perry is one promising young player, and someone will through $6 million at him, guaranteed.

Sounds a bit like Burke wants the offer sheet... he may be hoping to give the organization a bunch of great picks before possibly moving to Toronto to run their ship.... just a thought. Because that is a decent thing to do, Corey Perry is great and can be the future of that team, but imagine a bunch of early picks instead.

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agreed. it's also a sure-fire way to overspend.

Thing is, depending on the player, you may actually save money in the long term, because average salaries and the salary cap will inevitably rise while the player's contract stays the same. If it's a young skill player whose value will increase dramatically over the next few years, it's in your interest to get that player squared away to a long-term contract, so that what you pay him in year five (let's say) of his contract is way below what he could get on the UFA market in that year.

Offer sheets are a risk, to be sure, but they also offer some reward. :)

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What the heck, since nobody's actually answered the title of the thread yet...I'll take a stab at it... :)

Steve Eminger:

Year 1 - 2mill

Year 2 - 2.5mill

Year 3 - 2.5mill

Year 4 - 3mill

Year 5 - 4.5mill

Total Cap Hit - 2.9mill

Total Compensation - a 1st and a 3rd

Let me start by saying I am a fan of Steve Eminger and I never understood why he has such a hard time getting into the Caps lineup.

Having said that...do you really see him in the Habs lineup?

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Thing is, depending on the player, you may actually save money in the long term, because average salaries and the salary cap will inevitably rise while the player's contract stays the same. If it's a young skill player whose value will increase dramatically over the next few years, it's in your interest to get that player squared away to a long-term contract, so that what you pay him in year five (let's say) of his contract is way below what he could get on the UFA market in that year.

Offer sheets are a risk, to be sure, but they also offer some reward. :)

fair enough. in terms of the precedent that's been set i would say, yes, penner could easily be worth more than the value of his contract in the next few years: going from cup champ to, well, the oilers he still managed to maintain his point production which is quite impressive. but vanek...granted the sabres were also a lot worse this year (though i didn't think they were as bad as most people thought) but vanek's numbers were considerably lower (first year of a lucrative contract curse?) and the sabres (or whoever) are stuck with that contract for seven years. anything can happen in a year, fine: he may come back to form next year and maybe the next but is his contract worth the money, given the market at any given time, if he only produces for, say, two of those seven? i guess that's the risk you take.

i don't mind locking up players 'long term' but i don't like 'forever' and it seems to lure a rfa 'forever' is what you're dealing with. in my ideal world gainey would lock up ak for four, maybe five, years but not more - i agree with gainey's philosophy on that but the market might force him to change his mind, who knows.

i honestly have a great deal of respect for lowe and what he did considering his hands were tied and they, like us, have the money to spend but in order for another team to let a quality player walk the offer, by definition, has to be worth more than the player. maybe i'd be more willing to tender offer sheets if the market stabilized a little so i could recognize the value of these rfa contracts. considering the habs are not desperate and are well under the cap maybe it's not a bad idea for gainey to consider but i'd like to make sure our rfas are signed so when we start a war we win and not lose out. ;)

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sorry I'm not Kevin Lowe.

I do think Corey Perry is going to get offers, albeit not from us. Brian Burke was quoted on CBC as saying he wouldn't be able to sign him until after July 1st, which made Anaheim vulnerable to offer sheets from other clubs. Corey Perry is one promising young player, and someone will through $6 million at him, guaranteed.

Burke also said Corey Perry wants to stay in Anaheim. The reason why they have to wait until July 1st might have more to do with the fact that Burke's future with the franchise won't be decided until then as well.

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Let me start by saying I am a fan of Steve Eminger and I never understood why he has such a hard time getting into the Caps lineup.

Having said that...do you really see him in the Habs lineup?

Yes I do, hence my recommendation ;). Big body, moblile, right-handed, puck moving defenseman that skates like the wind and is still a few years away from his prime. He would be a cornerstone on our blueline for years to come and would be an immediate upgrade over anyone outside the top three. Admittedly, he has struggled in Washington, however, since Boudreau took over as coach Steve's game rose dramatically translating into a fantastic playoffs for him. He's one of those players that would flourish with a change of scenery, and I believe Montreal is that place.

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Id say Hossa. Toss him the farm, since we dont have any high dollar FA's.

But with Pitt's play this year and post season, I think he will most likely resign with them. But we need a top winger to go with Koivu and Higgins.

"Hossa isn't going to sign with pitsburg said the gm of pitsburg" I would that info from NHL.com can't find the link anymore. :unsure:

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Thing is, depending on the player, you may actually save money in the long term, because average salaries and the salary cap will inevitably rise while the player's contract stays the same. If it's a young skill player whose value will increase dramatically over the next few years, it's in your interest to get that player squared away to a long-term contract, so that what you pay him in year five (let's say) of his contract is way below what he could get on the UFA market in that year.

Offer sheets are a risk, to be sure, but they also offer some reward. :)

Its definitely a slipperly slope - and one i cant see Gainey treading on.

The problem with offering someone a long term deal is that even if they pan out (which obviously is the biggest risk) and in 5 years time you're paying them 1/2 of what they might get on the open market - depending on the player you might very well have a "oh man I dont even make the kind of money Im worth" situation on your hand.

You can argue all you want that "hey, both sides took a gamble" or "we offered you long term security" but as we've seen time and again, greed can often cloud a player (especially if there's an agent involved).

Again, I personally cant see Gainey signing a UFA. I just dont think its his style.

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I'd only go after an RFA from a team that is very close to it's cap and has UFA's to sign AND is a major rival (ie Ottawa, Toronto, Buff). These teams may not have anything I want but I could make an offer to their top RFA that not only streches their budget but I know they'll match, this makes it impossible for them to resign UFA's or bring in new ones. If not, I just poached their top young player.

But you have to be careful with that

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#1 RFA I would go for is Corey Perry

Definately. the ducks are having a hard time with the cap and a solid offer could really make it happen, but Burke might climb to the top of Mt Royal and start shooting at anyone in a Habs jersey after that...he'd go nuts!

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fair enough. in terms of the precedent that's been set i would say, yes, penner could easily be worth more than the value of his contract in the next few years: going from cup champ to, well, the oilers he still managed to maintain his point production which is quite impressive. but vanek...granted the sabres were also a lot worse this year (though i didn't think they were as bad as most people thought) but vanek's numbers were considerably lower (first year of a lucrative contract curse?) and the sabres (or whoever) are stuck with that contract for seven years. anything can happen in a year, fine: he may come back to form next year and maybe the next but is his contract worth the money, given the market at any given time, if he only produces for, say, two of those seven? i guess that's the risk you take.

The problem with offering someone a long term deal is that even if they pan out (which obviously is the biggest risk) and in 5 years time you're paying them 1/2 of what they might get on the open market - depending on the player you might very well have a "oh man I dont even make the kind of money Im worth" situation on your hand.

I found some interesting facts when examining Penner and Vanek's careers thus far:

Dustin Penner

Age: 26

Undrafted

Contract: 5 years, $4.25 million per year

06-07: 45 points (29/16) in 82 GP at -2

07-08: 47 points (23/24) in 82 GP at -12

Thomas Vanek

Age: 24

Drafted 5th overall in 2003

Contract: 7 years, $7.143 million cap hit per year (10/8/6.4/6.4/6.4/6.4/6.4)

05-06: 48 points (25/23) in 81 GP at -11

06-07: 84 points (43/41) in 82 GP at +47 (!)

07-08: 64 points (36/28) in 82 GP at -5

Here's my analysis:

  • Penner's production has remained constant, but Vanek has easily outperformed him, both over the course of their respective careers AND in their respective year ones of new contracts.
  • Vanek is two years younger than Penner but has already shown far more upside.
  • Vanek's numbers dipped substantially in 07-08, but this is perfectly understandable given the departures of Briere and Drury and the Sabres dealing Campbell away at the trade deadline.
  • Looking at the numbers, Vanek actually outperformed Smyth (cap hit $6.25 million for 5 years; 68 points pre-contract year; 37 points contract year 1) and Drury (cap hit $7.05 million for 5 years; 69 points pre-contract year; 58 points contract year 1), and was close to Gomez this year (cap hit $7.357 million for 7 years; 60 points pre-contract year; 70 points contract year 1), despite the fact that Gomez and Drury were playing with each other on a stacked Rangers team that also featured Jagr, Shanahan, etc.
  • Smyth's numbers aren't even on the same page as Vanek's, yet he got huge money last year as a UFA.
  • Gomez is three years older than Vanek but still managed to sign a 7-year contract with a slightly larger annual cap hit.
  • Over the life of his contract, Vanek will be in the prime of his career (age 24-30).

My conclusion? Vanek's contract is actually not bad at all, given the upside he's demonstrated in the past combined with the growing market price for older UFAs with similar or lower point totals. Let's say, for argument's sake, that Vanek plateaus at 65 points for 4 of the 6 remaining years on his contract. The other two years, he spikes up to 80 points. At a cap hit of $7.143 million, he'd still be very reasonable and IMO good dollar value for his contract when you measure his aggregate output against the inflated marketplace. And if he starts to hit full stride at any point during the contract, he will be great dollar value when measured against marketplace inflation. He's a top-10 draft pick with game-breaking skill who isn't even in his prime yet. Odds are he will justify this contract, particularly if the Sabres reload this summer and stop having annual fire sales.

Penner, on the other hand, is a 'safer' investment -- less dollars, shorter term -- but also carries far less visible upside. His highest point total in the NHL thus far is 47, he's two years older than Vanek, he wasn't even drafted, and there is simply not enough solid evidence to suggest that he'll be anything more than a good second-line winger. So you may not lose much, but you're also not gaining much, which kind of negates the whole point of an offer sheet. It's also interesting to note the numbers that got Penner his current contract are actually slightly below the numbers that almost got Kovalev, who makes similar money, run out of town on a rail.

Vanek had his breakout year (84 points) playing on a stacked Buffalo team. Penner played for the 06-07 Stanley Cup champions, featuring Selanne, Perry, and Getzlaf, and couldn't even break the 50-point plateau.

In the final analysis, I would tender richer offer sheets to younger skill players with more upside (like Vanek), rather than fooling around with less risky but also less rewarding offer sheets for older players with less demonstrated upside (like Penner). If you try to play it safe with an offer sheet, you're defeating its purpose IMO. :)

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LET'S GET PERRY!

TSN Player profile:Corey Perry

$27 million/5 years. Would the Ducks match that?

Hmmmmmmm. :) I don't know about this one.

Perry is 23, so younger than either Penner or Vanek, but his highest point total thus far is 54 points, and he was a late first-rounder (28th overall in 2003). So the question becomes: do you think he has the potential to be a star player, or merely a good player? If the latter, I wouldn't bother with the offer sheet. If the former, I'd want him signed longer, at least to a 7-year contract so we can benefit from a lower cap hit for longer term as he starts to justify the contract with increased production. It does us little good if he only starts to become a consistent PPG or better player in the final year of a 5-year contract. ;)

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