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Predicting The Ufa Market


tmash

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Hossa: 11 million, 8 years, no trade clause

Sundin: 8 million, 2 years, no movement clause

Jagr: 7 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Huselius: 6 million, 3 years, none

Langkow: 6 million, 5 years, limited no trade

Avery: 5 million, 3 years, none

Malone: 4.5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Prospal: 6 million, 3 years, no trade

Naslund: 6 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Rolston: 5.5 million, 3 years, no trade

Demitra: 5 million, 2 years, none

Vrbata: 5.5 million, 5 years, no trade

Campbell: 8 million, 7 years, no movement

Redden: 7 million, 4 years, no trade

Streit: 4.5 million, 3 years, limited no trade

Liles: 4 million, 4 years, none

Rozsival: 5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Hainsey: 4.5 million, 3 years, none

Huet: 6.5 million, 5 years, no trade

Theodore: 1.5 million, 2 years, none

Ryder: 1.5 million, 1 year, none

Stuart: 4 million, 3 years, none

Ellis: 3 million, 2 years, limited no trade

*note: all salaries are per year

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I know Hossa is 28 but given he has less than a point per game in his career and and has never really been a playoff performer (except for this year year when he played with Crosby) I just do not see his worth at 11 million/year.

Two words: bidding war. It's a situation of supply and demand. There's lots of demand for quick offensive stars, and the UFA crop this season is less than spectacular. It was what got Pittsburgh's ridiculous offer at the trade deadline

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I know Hossa is 28 but given he has less than a point per game in his career and and has never really been a playoff performer (except for this year year when he played with Crosby) I just do not see his worth at 11 million/year.

To be fair, he come up young, in a very tough system under a very defensive coach but since 02-03 he's been one of the highest scoring players in the league. Also, because of the system he came up in, and the coach he played for, he's one of the more well rounded elite scoring wingers. Hossa had a bit of a down year, but is a complete player. I don't know exactly what he'll get, but it will be high.

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Hossa: 11 million, 8 years, no trade clause

Sundin: 8 million, 2 years, no movement clause

Jagr: 7 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Huselius: 6 million, 3 years, none

Langkow: 6 million, 5 years, limited no trade

Avery: 5 million, 3 years, none

Malone: 4.5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Prospal: 6 million, 3 years, no trade

Naslund: 6 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Rolston: 5.5 million, 3 years, no trade

Demitra: 5 million, 2 years, none

Vrbata: 5.5 million, 5 years, no trade

Campbell: 8 million, 7 years, no movement

Redden: 7 million, 4 years, no trade

Streit: 4.5 million, 3 years, limited no trade

Liles: 4 million, 4 years, none

Rozsival: 5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Hainsey: 4.5 million, 3 years, none

Huet: 6.5 million, 5 years, no trade

Theodore: 1.5 million, 2 years, none

Ryder: 1.5 million, 1 year, none

Stuart: 4 million, 3 years, none

Ellis: 3 million, 2 years, limited no trade

*note: all salaries are per year

interesting projections. i'm usually way off when predicting the market so i think i'll just ask questions/comment on your estimates :) :

i cannot foresee avery making 5mil a year, despite the market. i guess there are gms crazy enough to offer him that money but i don't think the rangers will pay him that money and my bet is that he wants to stay there.

good luck finding a gm to take redden and his 7mil salary. i think he'll be signed for less when he realizes that the demand isn't out there.

how does theo only make 1.5mil and huet 6.5mil? i see huet getting a raise but i can't see him attracting more than double his current. i was thinking 5mil max to stay in washington and i could see it being settled before the first. as for theo...he'll make less than his current, without question, but i can't see it nose-diving to 1.5mil.

i'm also hoping naslund makes less than his current 6mil and comes here :)

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Hossa: 9.5 M, 8 years

Sundin: 6.5M, 1 year

Jagr: 7M, 2 years

Huselius: 5 M, 5 years

Langkow: 5M, 4 years

Avery: 3.5M, 3 years

Malone: 4M, 4 years

Prospal: 3.5M, 4 years

Naslund: 5M, 2 years

Rolston: 4M , 4 years

Campbell: 7M, 7 years

Redden: 5M, 4 years

Streit: 3.5M ,4 years

Huet: 4.5M, 4 years

Theodore: 3.2M, 2 years

Ryder 2.5M, 2 years

Stuart: 3.5M, 2 years

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Two words: bidding war. It's a situation of supply and demand. There's lots of demand for quick offensive stars, and the UFA crop this season is less than spectacular. It was what got Pittsburgh's ridiculous offer at the trade deadline

Well I hope Mr. Gainey does not get involved in it then.

To be fair, he come up young, in a very tough system under a very defensive coach but since 02-03 he's been one of the highest scoring players in the league. Also, because of the system he came up in, and the coach he played for, he's one of the more well rounded elite scoring wingers. Hossa had a bit of a down year, but is a complete player. I don't know exactly what he'll get, but it will be high.

True I will give him credit for that. I guess when I think 11 million I think that amount should be paid to the best player in the NHL.

Or maybe I am just cheap. :lol:

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True I will give him credit for that. I guess when I think 11 million I think that amount should be paid to the best player in the NHL.

Or maybe I am just cheap. :lol:

haha, I'm a big baseball fan so 11 million seems like a bargain for anyone. :lol:

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i cannot foresee avery making 5mil a year, despite the market. i guess there are gms crazy enough to offer him that money but i don't think the rangers will pay him that money and my bet is that he wants to stay there.

good luck finding a gm to take redden and his 7mil salary. i think he'll be signed for less when he realizes that the demand isn't out there.

how does theo only make 1.5mil and huet 6.5mil? i see huet getting a raise but i can't see him attracting more than double his current. i was thinking 5mil max to stay in washington and i could see it being settled before the first. as for theo...he'll make less than his current, without question, but i can't see it nose-diving to 1.5mil.

i'm also hoping naslund makes less than his current 6mil and comes here :)

Avery could be less but he is one of those players every team wants. He adds a lot to the team and his stock really rose over the last season.

Redden is coming off a bad season, but he is still one of the best dman on the market and teams desperate for an offensive defensemen could start off a bidding war

Theo only makes 1.5 because he really disappointed last contract, showed how inconsistant and unreliable he is, and when he finally started to look sharp, fell apart in the second round. If you were a GM, you'd have to be incredibly desperate to take a chance on Theo. He could do well, but there is a very high chance that he completely flops and your team will miss the playoffs if you keep plaing him.

Huet is not, in my opinion, worth 6.5 million. However, there are lots of teams who need a #1 goaltender, and the other 2 options (Ellis and Theo) are less than desireable. Once again: bidding war. Also he has a Roger Crozier, has been relatively consistant, and has played okay in the playoffs.

Naslund is tough to say, but I think he's still considered a guy with lots of offensive skill in him, and teams will pay for this Look at Bertuzzi last offseason, coming off brutal seasons, but the potential to score gave him a very nice contract.

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Well I hope Mr. Gainey does not get involved in it then.

Me neither. I'd like Hossa, but not for that much, I'd rather spend a good chunk of that on a dman.

True I will give him credit for that. I guess when I think 11 million I think that amount should be paid to the best player in the NHL.

Or maybe I am just cheap. :lol:

Well but that's not really the way it works. You've got 30 different GMs with different goals and habits. You've also got players taking hometown discounts and most importantly signed under different caps.

For example, last season people said "no one should make more than Koivu" - which in theory is fine, but really had we done that we would have lost Markov and Hamrlik. In Pittsburgh, assuming they keep Malkin, he will make more than Crosby most likely. That doesn't mean he's necessarily a better player than Crosby, but Crosby took a hometown discount and signed his contract under a lower cap

Basically you can't rank players salaries on a scale. They are signed under different situations, and Hossa's situation may lead to a salary abnormally high comapred with the best players in the league.

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i see your rationale and it makes sense: with the cap on the rise (again <_< ) it's hard to predict what any team will be willing to pay for any given player. considering that this is a pretty shallow pool of talent, gms would be smart to hold onto their cash but who knows what they will do when july 1st hits. some thoughts on your points:

re avery: good grief. i hope not. he's not worth anything near 5mil a year. think of the cap space any gm would be wasting on an 'in your face' player who does it all for himself. i'd rather see malone paid an exorbitant amount of money than see avery make over 2.5mil. but that's just my opinion.

re redden: he's another problem player, imho. a change of scenery might do him good, fine, but i think we're dealing with more than one poor season. he's had a mediocre season and a bad one and was useless in the sens' last two playoff runs - despite that they made it to the finals two years ago. he's not worth anything close to 7mil and i would hope he's lucky to make 5mil with maybe some incentive money included in there. if there's a bidding war i hope gainey stays far away. of course, i hope gainey stays away anyway.

re theo: fair enough. it would be a gamble for any team to sign theo but as you noted, with very few options in goal i wouldn't be surprised to see him get a couple of offers. as i can't think of who would take that risk, you might be right that his contract will be under 2mil but it's still pretty shocking. it's also possible that he too will have an incentive based-contract - i recognize that i'm throwing those around like they happen all the time but gms might be more willing to gamble on declining talent than just players who are on the verge of retirement, imho.

re huet: again, fair enough i'd be surprised to see him make that kind of money considering he's not a proven playoff performer but such is the nature of the market, i guess. my guess is that he signs for less before the first (but that's not the point of this thread ;) ).

re naslund: he definitely has potential and though i'd like to believe he's a hidden gem in this ufa year, i think you're probably right and there could easily be a bidding war for his services. :( the question is, if we're looking for an impact player upfront, who are we most likely to get? we're not going to pay hossa the 11mil that THE bidding war of the offseason might land on, and i don't think sundin is going to play for montreal, so do we pay naslund 6mil if it comes to that or do we get into a bidding war for malone's services in which case i think your 4.4mil might be too low (considering penner's contract 21.25mil/5yrs) :blink: .

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Hossa: 6yrs=$50 Million - MONTREAL

Sundin: 1yr=$6 Million - TORONTO

Jagr: 2yrs=$15 Million - VANCOUVER

Huselius: 4yrs=$16 Million - COLUMBUS

Langkow: 4yrs=$16 Million - CALGARY

Avery: 4yrs=$12 Million - LOS ANGELES

Malone: 4yrs=$13.5 Million - BOSTON

Prospal: 2yrs=$8 Million - TORONTO

Naslund: 2yrs=$8 Million - MINNESOTA

Rolston: 3yrs=$15 Million - NEW JERSEY

Demitra: 3yrs=$15 Million - VANCOUVER

Vrbata: 3yrs=$12 Million - BUFFALO

Campbell: 5yrs=$40 Million - BUFFALO

Redden: 5yrs=$30 Million - MINNESOTA

Streit: 3yrs=$8 Million - MONTREAL

Liles: 4yrs=$16 Million - DETROIT

Rozsival: 2yrs=$7 Million - NYR

Hainsey: 4yrs=$12 Million - NYI

Huet: 2yrs=$8 Million - OTTAWA

Theodore: 2yrs=$8 Million - COLORADO

Ryder: 4yrs=$16 Million - BOSTON

Stuart: 4yrs=$16 Million - SAN JOSE

Ellis: 3yrs=$10.5 Million - WASHINGTON

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Hossa: 6yrs=$50 Million - MONTREAL

Sundin: 1yr=$6 Million - TORONTO

Jagr: 2yrs=$15 Million - VANCOUVER

Huselius: 4yrs=$16 Million - COLUMBUS

Langkow: 4yrs=$16 Million - CALGARY

Avery: 4yrs=$12 Million - LOS ANGELES

Malone: 4yrs=$13.5 Million - BOSTON

Prospal: 2yrs=$8 Million - TORONTO

Naslund: 2yrs=$8 Million - MINNESOTA

Rolston: 3yrs=$15 Million - NEW JERSEY

Demitra: 3yrs=$15 Million - VANCOUVER

Vrbata: 3yrs=$12 Million - BUFFALO

Campbell: 5yrs=$40 Million - BUFFALO

Redden: 5yrs=$30 Million - MINNESOTA

Streit: 3yrs=$8 Million - MONTREAL

Liles: 4yrs=$16 Million - DETROIT

Rozsival: 2yrs=$7 Million - NYR

Hainsey: 4yrs=$12 Million - NYI

Huet: 2yrs=$8 Million - OTTAWA

Theodore: 2yrs=$8 Million - COLORADO

Ryder: 4yrs=$16 Million - BOSTON

Stuart: 4yrs=$16 Million - SAN JOSE

Ellis: 3yrs=$10.5 Million - WASHINGTON

i like what you've done here. care to elaborate on some of your signings?

i agree with most of your list but: i think there will be a bidding war for malone and he will sign at a higher price; whereas colorado will sign theo for less; i think you're dead on with ryder signing in boston but i also think that will be for less; ottawa will have to offer huet more to pry him away from washington.

i'm curious to see if campbell goes back to buffalo. i can't really see it but that would be pretty cool, imho - markov needs someone to challenge him for best dman in the east and chara isn't it. :)

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Im sure Im probably way off, but this is what I would guess. Again, not necessarily what I think they are worth - but what i think they might go for.

(the * denote players I think montreal might take a stab at. tough to say if we will be interested at the price - but i think gainey will at least consider these guys)

Hossa: 9.5 million, 8 years *

Sundin: 4.5 million 1 year *

Jagr: 4.5 million 1 year *

Huselius: 4.5 million, 2 years

Langkow: 3.5 million, 3 years *

Avery: 2.5 million, 2 years *

Malone: 3.5 million, 3 years

Prospal: 3 million, 2 years

Naslund: 4 million, 2 years

Rolston: 4 million, 3 years

Demitra: 3 million, 2 years

Vrbata: 4 million, 5 years

Campbell: 6 million, 7 years

Redden: 4.5 million, 1 year *

Streit: 4 million, 3 year

Liles: 4 million, 4 years

Rozsival: 2.5 million, 4 years

Hainsey: 3 million, 3 years

Huet: 4.5 million, 5 years

Theodore: 2.5 million, 1 year

Ryder: 2.5 million, 1 year

Stuart: 3 million, 3 years

Ellis: 3 million, 2 years

$ amount is per year.

Most of the 1 year contracts are either "show me what you've got" (ie ryder, theo, redden) or "do you still have 'it' - like naslund, jagr and sundin.

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i see your rationale and it makes sense: with the cap on the rise (again <_< ) it's hard to predict what any team will be willing to pay for any given player. considering that this is a pretty shallow pool of talent, gms would be smart to hold onto their cash but who knows what they will do when july 1st hits. some thoughts on your points:

re avery: good grief. i hope not. he's not worth anything near 5mil a year. think of the cap space any gm would be wasting on an 'in your face' player who does it all for himself. i'd rather see malone paid an exorbitant amount of money than see avery make over 2.5mil. but that's just my opinion.

re redden: he's another problem player, imho. a change of scenery might do him good, fine, but i think we're dealing with more than one poor season. he's had a mediocre season and a bad one and was useless in the sens' last two playoff runs - despite that they made it to the finals two years ago. he's not worth anything close to 7mil and i would hope he's lucky to make 5mil with maybe some incentive money included in there. if there's a bidding war i hope gainey stays far away. of course, i hope gainey stays away anyway.

re theo: fair enough. it would be a gamble for any team to sign theo but as you noted, with very few options in goal i wouldn't be surprised to see him get a couple of offers. as i can't think of who would take that risk, you might be right that his contract will be under 2mil but it's still pretty shocking. it's also possible that he too will have an incentive based-contract - i recognize that i'm throwing those around like they happen all the time but gms might be more willing to gamble on declining talent than just players who are on the verge of retirement, imho.

re huet: again, fair enough i'd be surprised to see him make that kind of money considering he's not a proven playoff performer but such is the nature of the market, i guess. my guess is that he signs for less before the first (but that's not the point of this thread ;) ).

re naslund: he definitely has potential and though i'd like to believe he's a hidden gem in this ufa year, i think you're probably right and there could easily be a bidding war for his services. :( the question is, if we're looking for an impact player upfront, who are we most likely to get? we're not going to pay hossa the 11mil that THE bidding war of the offseason might land on, and i don't think sundin is going to play for montreal, so do we pay naslund 6mil if it comes to that or do we get into a bidding war for malone's services in which case i think your 4.4mil might be too low (considering penner's contract 21.25mil/5yrs) :blink: .

Good points. Time will tell who's right ...

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thanks for the link.

their speculated interest seems a bit off: montreal isn't written next to sundin's name or malone's for that matter :lol:

side note: one of my biggest pet peeves is the way nhl sites always present dmen with their point totals and never their +/-. however misinterpreted that stat might sometimes be ( :P ), it still offers a general indication of how these guys play in their own end.

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Hossa: 60 million- 7 years- 8.5 per

Sundin: 4.5 million- 1 year

Jagr: 15 million-2 years- 7.5 mil per

Huselius: 32 million- 5 years-6.4 mil per

Langkow: 28 million- 5 years - 5.6 mil per

Avery: 25 million - 5 years -5 mil per

Malone: 30 million- 6 years- 5 mil per

Prospal: 20 million - 4 years- 5 mil per

Naslund: 10 million- 3 years - 3.33 per

Rolston: 18 million- 3 years - 6 mil per

Demitra: 7 million- 2 years- 3.5 mil per

Vrbata: 12 million- 3 years - 4 mil per

Campbell: 40 million- 6 years- 6.7 mil per

Redden: 14 million- 3 years- 4.7 mil per

Streit: 15 million- 3 years-5 mil per

Liles: 7 million- 2 years- 3.5 mil per

Rozsival: 15 million- 3 years- 5 mil per

Hainsey: 12 million- 3 years-4 mil per

Huet: 22 million- 4 years- 5.5 mil per

Theodore: 1.8 million-1 year

Ryder: 2.2 million-1 year

Stuart: 5.5 million-2 years- 2.75 per

Ellis: 10million- 4 years- 2.5 per

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Hossa: 9 million, 7 years, no trade clause

Sundin: 7 million, 3 years, no movement clause

Jagr: 9 million, 1 years, limited no trade

Huselius: 5 million, 5 years, none

Langkow: 5 million, 5 years, limited no trade

Avery: 4.75 million, 3 years, none

Malone: 4.5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Prospal: 6.25 million, 7 years, no trade

Naslund: 6 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Rolston: 4.375 million, 3 years, no trade

Demitra: 5 million, 2 years, none

Vrbata: 3.25 million, 2 years, no trade

Campbell: 7.5 million, 5 years, no movement

Redden: 6.5 million, 3 years, no trade

Streit: 6.0 million, 2 years, limited no trade

Liles: 4 million, 2 years, none

Rozsival: 4.5 million, 4 years, limited no trade

Hainsey: 4.5 million, 3 years, none

Huet: 6.5 million, 5 years, no trade

Theodore: 1.5 million, 2 years, none

Ryder: 2.75 million, 1 year, none

Stuart: 4 million, 3 years, none

Ellis: 3 million, 2 years, limited no trade

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what the hall is a limited ntc, and i think yhe only one on this list who deserves a ntc is sundin he is the most consistent 20 goal scorer on this list

Limited no trade clause is what Gainey likes giving out. It basically means you can trade the player but with restrictions. These can vary, but be something like "can only be traded in second half of contract", "can only be traded within the Eastern conference", "can only be traded to 10 pre-selected teams", etc. or some combination of these.

And it's not about who "deserves" one, but who can get one. And nowadays GMs are throwing these things out without a second thought. Because of the cap, GMs can't just always outbid the other teams, so instead they throw in some extras like front loaded contracts, no trade/movement clauses, and other little bonuses.

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Limited no trade clause is what Gainey likes giving out. It basically means you can trade the player but with restrictions. These can vary, but be something like "can only be traded in second half of contract", "can only be traded within the Eastern conference", "can only be traded to 10 pre-selected teams", etc. or some combination of these.

And it's not about who "deserves" one, but who can get one. And nowadays GMs are throwing these things out without a second thought. Because of the cap, GMs can't just always outbid the other teams, so instead they throw in some extras like front loaded contracts, no trade/movement clauses, and other little bonuses.

Its definitely the smart way of doing it. Lets face it, NTC are all about putting the power in the players hands - and if youre a thirty-something, ageing star, why wouldnt you want (and deserve) to have that power? You want me? sure, but I want the choice of whether or not my family is moving before the Trade deadline.

That being said, a NTC that has something like "can only be traded to one of the following teams" at very least gives the GM in question a little more power when it comes to helping his team...while still making sure a player doesnt end up in nowhere land come Feb/March.

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Limited no trade clause is what Gainey likes giving out. It basically means you can trade the player but with restrictions. These can vary, but be something like "can only be traded in second half of contract", "can only be traded within the Eastern conference", "can only be traded to 10 pre-selected teams", etc. or some combination of these.

And it's not about who "deserves" one, but who can get one. And nowadays GMs are throwing these things out without a second thought. Because of the cap, GMs can't just always outbid the other teams, so instead they throw in some extras like front loaded contracts, no trade/movement clauses, and other little bonuses.

Though I think most GMs would prefer not having a NTC I believe it is player specific based on both the team and player needs. For example last year Markov was signed with a limited NTC whereas Hamrlik was signed with both a full and partial NTC. It is somewhat a gamble on the Team's part yet I see it as a one of the deciding factors in in being able to sign (or not sign) proven veteran NHLers.

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