DA_Champion Posted December 14, 2008 Report Share Posted December 14, 2008 I noticed a lot of people in the Washington game thread were debating whether or not 8-7-4 counts as a .500 record. I think the discussion is worth its own thread, and also I think I have the answer. .500 means average or better. If the NHL followed a more rational system, where there was 3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an OT win, 1 for an OT loss, and zero otherwise; or the system it had until a few years ago, .500 would be obvious. It would be 1.5 points per game in the first case, or 1 point per game in the second case. DEFINING .500 PERFORMANCE: In the current system, .500 means approximately ~1.2-1.3 points per game, as more than 2 points are given out but less than 3. .500 means getting at least half the points given out. ESTIMATING .500 PERFORMANCE: Looking at the eastern conference standings, the teams have played 444 games and there are 62 overtime losses. Assuming western conference play doesn't affect the statistics, and not double counting games, that means about 62/222 = 28% of games in the eastern conference go to overtime. So being a .500 team in the EC means averaging 1*0.72+1.5*0.28 = 1.14 points per game. Evaluating the Habs 8-7-4 then means 20 points in 17 games, or 1.18 points per game, which means the Habs are slightly above .500 since their 8-1-1 start, by eastern conference standards. The Habs right now have 37 points in 29 games, which in my system gives them a .560 record since the start of the season. A positive note Since half the NHL teams make the playoffs, .500 should mean the record to make the playoffs, in theory. (In practice wins are not distributed in a smooth manner). Last year, 94 points over 82 games made the playoffs in the EC, but 92 points in 82 games did not. 93/82 = 1.13 points per game, close to what I estimated above. I conclude that ~1.14 points per game played is a good approximation for "playing .500". That number would change if the number of OT games. If every game in the NHL went to OT, .500 would be 1.5 points per game, if none did it would be 1 point per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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