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Review Of Recent Habs Drafting


DA_Champion

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2001

7. Mike Komisarek

25. Alexander Perezhogin

37. Duncan Milroy

71. Tomáš Plekanec

109. Martti Järventie

171. Eric Himelfarb

203. Andrew Archer

266. Viktor Ujčik

2002

14 Chris Higgins

45. Matthew Daley

99. Michael Lambert

212. Jonathan Ferland

2003

10 Andrei Kostitsyn

40 Cory Urquhart

61 Maxim Lapierre

79 Ryan O'Byrne

113 Corey Locke

123 Danny Stewart

177 Christopher Heino-Lindberg

188 Mark Flood

217 Oskari Korpikari

241. Jimmy Bonneau

271 Jaroslav Halak

2004

18. Kyle Chipchura

84. Alexei Yemelin

100. J. T. Wyman

150. Mikhail Grabovski

181. Loic Lacasse

212. Jon Gleed

246. Gregory Stewart

262. Mark Streit

278. Alexandre Dulac-Lemeli

2005

5 Carey Price

45 Guillaume Latendresse

66 Brodie Dupont

121 Juraj Mikus

130 Mathieu Aubin

190 Matt D'Agostini

200 Sergei Kostitsyn

229 Philippe Paquet

2006

20 David Fischer

49 Ben Maxwell

53 Mathieu Carle

66 Ryan White

139 Pavel Valentenko

199 Cameron Cepek

2007

12 Ryan McDonagh

22 Max Pacioretty

43 P.K. Subban (

65 Olivier Fortier

73 Yannick Weber

133 Joe Stejskal

142 Andrew Conboy

163 Nichlas Torp (

192 Scott Kishel

2008

56 Danny Kristo

86 Steve Quailer

116 Jason Missiaen

138 Maxim Trunev

206 Patrick Johnson

I've bolded the ones where I think we've produced NHL ready players.

Later rounds are such a crap shoot... there is a non zero signal... it's about as high as our picks from round 2 :-)

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2001 through 2005 we produced 13 quality NHL players.

13 divided by 5 is 2.6, and thus on average we can expect 2.6 quality rookies a year. I think that is a very good track record.

Right now we have a lot of depth which is why nobody from the 2006-2008 drafts has made the NHL.

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2001 through 2005 we produced 13 quality NHL players.

13 divided by 5 is 2.6, and thus on average we can expect 2.6 quality rookies a year. I think that is a very good track record.

Right now we have a lot of depth which is why nobody from the 2006-2008 drafts has made the NHL.

Indeed & I would go out on a limb & say on paper our 2006 & 2007 players look like they might surpass that average - it remains to be seen if they can make the jump, but on paper both years look like great drafts.

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Who out of the ten haven't played 10 games. You could also add O'byrne

It is not as clear that O'Byrne will make it in the NHL at this point.

If I bold O'Byrne I should also bold Pacioretty, D'Agostini and Maxwell, as they have also played in the NHL and have a probability of making it. I also didn't bold Milroy, Locke and Stewart who have been on NHL rosters for small periods of time.

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I guess you need me to rephrase?

Um...players who play well at the world juniors usually end up being very good players in the NHL.

Is that any more significant than saying:

Good players are more likely to play well at the juniors, and good players are more likely to succeed in the NHL, therefore people who play well at the juniors are more likely to succeed in the NHL.

There is no inherent extra information in that sentence.

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We averaged 2.6 players during 2001 through 2005.

Is this actually an improvement over previous years, or are we just irrational victims to hype?

Let's check.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr000045.html

2000 Entry 13 1 Ron Hainsey

2000 Entry 16 1 Marcel Hossa

2000 Entry 78 3 Jozef Balej

2000 Entry 79 3 Tyler Hanchuck

2000 Entry 109 4 Johan Eneqvist

2000 Entry 114 4 Christian Larrivee

2000 Entry 145 5 Ryan Glenn

2000 Entry 172 6 Scott Selig

2000 Entry 182 6 Petr Chvojka

2000 Entry 243 8 Joni Puurula

2000 Entry 275 9 Jonathan Gauthier

1999 Entry 39 2 Alexander Buturlin

1999 Entry 58 2 Matt Carkner

1999 Entry 97 4 Chris Dyment

1999 Entry 107 4 Evan Lindsay

1999 Entry 136 5 Dusty Jamieson

1999 Entry 145 5 Marc-Andre Thinel

1999 Entry 150 5 Matt Shasby

1999 Entry 167 6 Sean Dixon

1999 Entry 196 7 Vadim Tarasov

1999 Entry 225 8 Mikko Hyytia

1999 Entry 253 9 Jerome Marois

1998 Entry 16 1 Eric Chouinard

1998 Entry 45 2 Mike Ribeiro

1998 Entry 75 3 Francois Beauchemin

1998 Entry 132 5 Andre Bashkirov

1998 Entry 152 6 Gordie Dwyer

1998 Entry 162 6 Andrei Markov

1998 Entry 189 7 Andrei Kruchinin

1998 Entry 201 8 Craig Murray

1998 Entry 216 8 Michael Ryder

1998 Entry 247 9 Darcy Harris

1997 Entry 11 1 Jason Ward

1997 Entry 37 2 Gregor Baumgartner

1997 Entry 65 3 Ilkka Mikkola

1997 Entry 91 4 Daniel Tetrault

1997 Entry 118 5 Konstantin Sidulov

1997 Entry 122 5 Gennady Razin

1997 Entry 145 6 Jonathan Desroches

1997 Entry 172 7 Ben Guite

1997 Entry 197 8 Petr Kubos

1997 Entry 202 8 Andrei Sidyakin

1997 Entry 228 9 Jarl Ygranes

1996 Entry 18 1 Matt Higgins

1996 Entry 44 2 Mathieu Garon

1996 Entry 71 3 Arron Asham

1996 Entry 92 4 Kim Staal

1996 Entry 99 4 Etienne Drapeau

1996 Entry 127 5 Daniel Archambault

1996 Entry 154 6 Brett Clark

1996 Entry 181 7 Timo Vertala

1996 Entry 207 8 Mattia Baldi

1996 Entry 233 9 Michel Tremblay

1995 Entry 8 1 Terry Ryan

1995 Entry 60 3 Miloslav Guren

1995 Entry 74 3 Martin Hohenberger

1995 Entry 86 4 Jonathan Delisle

1995 Entry 112 5 Niklas Anger

1995 Entry 138 6 Boyd Olson

1995 Entry 164 7 Stephane Robidas

1995 Entry 190 8 Greg Hart

1995 Entry 216 9 Eric Houde C

*******

During 1995-2000 (6 years) we produced 9 guys, or 1.5 players per years, which is a little more than half the productivity of 2001-2005 even though it seems we were drafting more people back then. Indeed, that's 59 picks over those 6 years, so 9 guys out of 59 picks. In 2001 through 2005 we had 13 picks so 13/40, which is an improvement of 140%. Admittedly there may be names that played a couple seasons that I no longer recognize. 1997 and 1999 produced nothing. 1995 only produced Robidas and 2000 only produced Hainsey.

Terry Ryan, Matt Higgins, Jason Ward, Eric Chouinard, Marcel Hossa and Ron Hainsey are our 1st rounders in that period. The success rate is 1/6 (Hainsey) though he was given up for free to waivers. In 2001 through 2005 it now appears all the 1st rounders became NHL caliber players, though for now Perezhogin is playing in Russia, and Chipchura might not make it.

The Habs scouting people are clearly using a very sophisticated and intelligent system. Their scouts know how to watch games and understand which players are good, somehow.

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Is that any more significant than saying:

Good players are more likely to play well at the juniors, and good players are more likely to succeed in the NHL, therefore people who play well at the juniors are more likely to succeed in the NHL.

There is no inherent extra information in that sentence.

But that's all I'm saying. There doesn't need to be more info.

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Firstly I would say yes our system is overhyped.

However looking at just NHL players per draft is misleading, the quality of the players is more important.

Well you can't do that because the recent players are not in their prime yet.

Our system's performance lives up to its hype.

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1997 Entry 11 1 Jason Ward

1997 Entry 37 2 Gregor Baumgartner

1997 Entry 65 3 Ilkka Mikkola

1997 Entry 91 4 Daniel Tetrault

1997 Entry 118 5 Konstantin Sidulov

1997 Entry 122 5 Gennady Razin

1997 Entry 145 6 Jonathan Desroches

1997 Entry 172 7 Ben Guite

1997 Entry 197 8 Petr Kubos

1997 Entry 202 8 Andrei Sidyakin

1997 Entry 228 9 Jarl Ygranes

Not that it changes much, but Ben Guite is actually still playing with the Colorado Avalanche.

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Sorry for following my own post, but I just had to agree with one of the earlier contributors that this was a great thread idea.

IMO, much of Montreal's recent success can be attributed to their stellar drafting record and I genuinely believe that Trevor Timmins is one of the best assessors of talent there is out there.

So I pulled out my dog-eared copy of The Hockey News Draft Preview 2008 because I remembered that it had a feature entitled "10 Year Draft Review", in which the magazine's pundits list each team's top five steals and top five busts of the past draft decade.

According to THN, Montreal's top 5 draft day steals of the last 10 years are:

A.Markov (162nd in 1998), M.Streit (262nd in 2004), T.Plekanec (71st in 2001), M.Ryder(216th in 1998), and J.Halak (271st in 2003).

The five biggest busts are:

E.Chouinard (16th in 1998), C.Urquhart (40th in 2003), A.Buturlin (39th in 1999), D.Milroy (37th in 2001), and M.Hossa (16th in 2000).

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Well you can't do that because the recent players are not in their prime yet.

Our system's performance lives up to its hype.

Does it though, lets review Gaineys draft since thats the regime currently being evaluated:

2003

10 Andrei Kostitsyn

40 Cory Urquhart

61 Maxim Lapierre

79 Ryan O'Byrne

113 Corey Locke

123 Danny Stewart

177 Christopher Heino-Lindberg

188 Mark Flood

217 Oskari Korpikari

241. Jimmy Bonneau

271 Jaroslav Halak

Andrei was a consensus top 5 pick, it was our doctors who basically made that pick, if any team knew he could be healthy we'd never would have got him. Then we have a 4th line defensive player, a physically gifted project d-man in OByrne and a great pick in Halak. So only one "wow" from this draft and not great value from the rest of the picks.

2004

18. Kyle Chipchura

84. Alexei Yemelin

100. J. T. Wyman

150. Mikhail Grabovski

181. Loic Lacasse

212. Jon Gleed

246. Gregory Stewart

262. Mark Streit

278. Alexandre Dulac-Lemeli

Well that 1st rounder was a bust, not in a sense that Chips won't be a decent NHL player, but the fact that one of those players has already come and gone by UFA shows what a bad pick it was. Streit was a wow pick and Grabs is a top 6 center with defensive issues.

2005

5 Carey Price

45 Guillaume Latendresse

66 Brodie Dupont

121 Juraj Mikus

130 Mathieu Aubin

190 Matt D'Agostini

200 Sergei Kostitsyn

229 Philippe Paquet

Heres the thing with this draft, Price was a great pick, but we got this selection by luck so how much do we really credit the staff? I know Carey wasn't high up on ISS but we don't know what other teams boards looked like to say we would've gotten him at a middle draft position. Still this draft produced three possible top 6 wingers.

2006

20 David Fischer

49 Ben Maxwell

53 Mathieu Carle

66 Ryan White

139 Pavel Valentenko

199 Cameron Cepek

Nothing special with this draft, 1st rounder's development hasn't proceeded anywhere close to as hoped and Maxwell/Carle are both hopefuls to crack our roster one day. Valentenko was a decent prospect but overall not a good draft.

2007

12 Ryan McDonagh

22 Max Pacioretty

43 P.K. Subban (

65 Olivier Fortier

73 Yannick Weber

133 Joe Stejskal

142 Andrew Conboy

163 Nichlas Torp (

192 Scott Kishel

With 2 1st rounders they made them count, getting a projected blue-chip Dman and top 6 winger, Subban projects maybe as a 3rd unit D and on the PP and Weber can only hope to be that too. They made their 1st rounders count and got okay value from the rest, so it was an above-average draft.

2008

56 Danny Kristo

86 Steve Quailer

116 Jason Missiaen

138 Maxim Trunev

206 Patrick Johnson

Can't evaluate this yet.

So what have we learnt? Gainey and Co. have made some great late round picks, but for such an "elite" franchise, their 1st rounders should be coming along a little better even if its only 2 (Chips and Fischer). Andrei fell into our laps when the docs cleared him and Price was a luck pick who we may have gotten, but thats a big "may have".

Is this farm great? Yes

Is it an elite farm? I'm not quite convinced.

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