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Let's Bet: Who Will The Islanders Draft?


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Will the Islanders draft Tavares or Hedman?

I bet they will select Tavares. Both players have a high ceiling, one can be an elite 1st line center and one can be a solid top-2 D. However, the latter has historically been easier to obtain on the UFA market. Just look at all the D UFA this summer compared to all the 1st line center UFA.

However, if they selected Hedman, Tampa Bay would be stuck with Tavares which would be funny. They would have 3 1st centers they selected top of the draft, a testament to their inept skills at team building. Their situation would be even more pathetic than Pittsburgh. It's likely Stamkos would go on the trade market if this happened. Also likely Toronto's Brian Burke would go after the pick.

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Don't exclude the possibility of Tampa guaranteeing themselves Hedman ( if indeed its whom they want) by making a deal with the Islanders to pass him up. Might be something like future consideration like an exchange of later picks. If NYI pass on Tavares then for sure Tampa won't pass on him unless they have a sweet deal in place to trade him.

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Will the Islanders draft Tavares or Hedman?

I bet they will select Tavares. Both players have a high ceiling, one can be an elite 1st line center and one can be a solid top-2 D. However, the latter has historically been easier to obtain on the UFA market. Just look at all the D UFA this summer compared to all the 1st line center UFA.

However, if they selected Hedman, Tampa Bay would be stuck with Tavares which would be funny. They would have 3 1st centers they selected top of the draft, a testament to their inept skills at team building. Their situation would be even more pathetic than Pittsburgh. It's likely Stamkos would go on the trade market if this happened. Also likely Toronto's Brian Burke would go after the pick.

+1 Totally agree

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If Tampa are in a position where they cannot draft Hedman and are "Forced" to take Tavares then I assume they might just trade one of the Lecavalier or St. Louis later in the season and become the next 'Chicago.' A Stamkos/Tavares duo sounds eerily familiar to a Kane/Toews duo. And look, Chicago's not doing too bad right now. If I am Tampa Bay, I take what's given to me in the 2nd spot. They could steal some top-6 forwards/top-4 d-men away from another team in the league for a Lecavlier or St. Louis. Why pass up on a future star when you're rebuilding your team?

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If Tampa are in a position where they cannot draft Hedman and are "Forced" to take Tavares then I assume they might just trade one of the Lecavalier or St. Louis later in the season and become the next 'Chicago.' A Stamkos/Tavares duo sounds eerily familiar to a Kane/Toews duo. And look, Chicago's not doing too bad right now. If I am Tampa Bay, I take what's given to me in the 2nd spot. They could steal some top-6 forwards/top-4 d-men away from another team in the league for a Lecavlier or St. Louis. Why pass up on a future star when you're rebuilding your team?

Two options for TB if NYI pick Hedman:

1) Draft Tavares, and then firesale Lecavalier for whatever they can get

2) Keep Lecavalier, and trade the 2nd overall draft pick.

While I think the first option has more potential (i.e. build a dynasty around 2 young guys who are not UFA for a long time), option 2 has a more certain return. For Tavares, I can see Burke offering the 7th overall, Kaberle and some a slew of later draft picks. It is unclear what they can get for Lecavalier, and it is also unclear that either of JT or SS will be able to match Lecavalier's output in the near future, or ever.

I'd bet they take option 2, unless their financial situation is as bad as it's made out to be.

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I agree with most of your post (ie who each team will draft) but this is silly:

However, if they selected Hedman, Tampa Bay would be stuck with Tavares which would be funny. They would have 3 1st centers they selected top of the draft, a testament to their inept skills at team building. Their situation would be even more pathetic than Pittsburgh.

The #1 rule of drafting is: Pick the best player available. You can have 11 first line centres and if at your position you can take another first line centre - or a 2nd pairing dman, even if you have holes at D you would be insane to take the defenseman. Why? Well because of a little thing called trading.

Pittsburg, by taking Crosby, Malkin & Stahl have not shown they are "inept." Not trading one of them and locking up $23m in 3 players has shown they are idiots, but drafting them in the first place? Good moves.

I think 29 other teams would LOVE to be in the position TB could be in: I.e. getting Tavares & having him, Stamkos & Lecavalier. One can be moved & you'd still have 2 top flite elite centres.

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The #1 rule of drafting is: Pick the best player available.

It's a bad rule, it assumes the trade market is linear, which it is not. For example right now the value of goalies on the trade market is close to zero, and the value of top-4 D is sky high as can be seen from the trade deadline. This is not always so, it is only currently so, and so this introduces a risk factor.

The team's needs should be taken into account.

Are you in favour of the Habs drafting a goalie in the first round if he's the best player available?

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It's a bad rule, it assumes the trade market is linear, which it is not. For example right now the value of goalies on the trade market is close to zero, and the value of top-4 D is sky high as can be seen from the trade deadline. This is not always so, it is only currently so, and so this introduces a risk factor.

The team's needs should be taken into account.

Are you in favour of the Habs drafting a goalie in the first round if he's the best player available?

Actually I'm in favor of drafting the best playr available AND taking into account value of position, which is why Hedman is the #1 pick IMO.

Franchise defenseman >>>>> Franchise forward.

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Two options for TB if NYI pick Hedman:

1) Draft Tavares, and then firesale Lecavalier for whatever they can get

2) Keep Lecavalier, and trade the 2nd overall draft pick.

While I think the first option has more potential (i.e. build a dynasty around 2 young guys who are not UFA for a long time), option 2 has a more certain return. For Tavares, I can see Burke offering the 7th overall, Kaberle and some a slew of later draft picks. It is unclear what they can get for Lecavalier, and it is also unclear that either of JT or SS will be able to match Lecavalier's output in the near future, or ever.

I'd bet they take option 2, unless their financial situation is as bad as it's made out to be.

I think Stamkos has a ton of potential to possibly even surpass Lecavalier's present day point totals as soon as 2009-2010 or 2010-2011. The guy came on strong at the end of this season, and looked impressive in International play during this year's World Championship. What Tavares can offer is yet to be seen, but I would choose to build around those two young guns and move some of that grotesque salary rather than let Tavares go to another team.

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I think Stamkos has a ton of potential to possibly even surpass Lecavalier's present day point totals as soon as 2009-2010 or 2010-2011. The guy came on strong at the end of this season, and looked impressive in International play during this year's World Championship. What Tavares can offer is yet to be seen, but I would choose to build around those two young guns and move some of that grotesque salary rather than let Tavares go to another team.

Problem is I don't think they can move Vinny's contract, so they may have to eat it. Which correlates to reports if Tavares falls to 2, they are going to trade the pick or trade him post-draft if they can't get a deal done.

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Problem is I don't think they can move Vinny's contract, so they may have to eat it. Which correlates to reports if Tavares falls to 2, they are going to trade the pick or trade him post-draft if they can't get a deal done.

If Tampa wanted they could send Lecavalier straight to Montreal without hesitation. I don't know the particulars regarding his no-trade/no-movement (whatever he has), but Montreal would take him in a heartbeat. Especially given the present state of the franchise: Dismay over a horrible 100th year. Bringing in Lecavalier would be the perfect band-aid solution for the organization. Not that I think it would be a good idea. Also, I'm sure there are plenty of teams out there willing to take a chance on Vinny. I guess it's possibly just that no-trade that he has. What are the details on that?

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It's a bad rule, it assumes the trade market is linear, which it is not. For example right now the value of goalies on the trade market is close to zero, and the value of top-4 D is sky high as can be seen from the trade deadline. This is not always so, it is only currently so, and so this introduces a risk factor.

The team's needs should be taken into account.

Are you in favour of the Habs drafting a goalie in the first round if he's the best player available?

I think you're off on your assessment when you say "the value of goalies on the trade market is close to zero" - we're talking about young, high draft picks. Goalies in general may be of little value but trust me, if columbus put Steve Mason on the table, teams would be lining up and offering multiple players for him.

Of course team's needs need to be taken into account - but only to an extent. If the choice was a top quality player at a position you are already strong at, vs a player who is a tier lower but plays a position you are weak at, its still the wrong choice to go with the latter.

Yes, I would take a goalie if he was the best player available. Its the same reason Gainey took price when we had (at that time) a still very capable Theodore.

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If Tampa wanted they could send Lecavalier straight to Montreal without hesitation. I don't know the particulars regarding his no-trade/no-movement (whatever he has), but Montreal would take him in a heartbeat. Especially given the present state of the franchise: Dismay over a horrible 100th year. Bringing in Lecavalier would be the perfect band-aid solution for the organization. Not that I think it would be a good idea. Also, I'm sure there are plenty of teams out there willing to take a chance on Vinny. I guess it's possibly just that no-trade that he has. What are the details on that?

Its a full no movement clause that comes into effect July 1st 2009 (basically right after the draft).

However while there have been rumors, we don't know if a team is actually ready to take that pill of a contract yet.

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If Tampa wanted they could send Lecavalier straight to Montreal without hesitation. I don't know the particulars regarding his no-trade/no-movement (whatever he has), but Montreal would take him in a heartbeat. Especially given the present state of the franchise: Dismay over a horrible 100th year. Bringing in Lecavalier would be the perfect band-aid solution for the organization. Not that I think it would be a good idea. Also, I'm sure there are plenty of teams out there willing to take a chance on Vinny. I guess it's possibly just that no-trade that he has. What are the details on that?

He has no clause in his contract until July 1.

Im not so sure Gainey would "take him in a heartbeat" - I think he might have considered the move earlier in the year but now the "impulse" has worn off. Its like when you're in the checkout line & you grab a candy bar...you stand there for 20 minutes while the lady ahead of you pays in nickles & you have time to consider that you dont really need the empty calories of the candy. Vinny is just empty calories ;)

I do think that TB would find a suitor, no question though - and if they end up drafting tavares, they'd be insane not to move Vinny now. Tavares & Stamkos is more than enough down the middle.

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Somewhat related topic,

The Tampa Bay Lightning hav arranged a press conference today to announce some breaking news apparently.

Maybe Tocchet's extension?(If it's happened already and the conference has happened, I apologize for posting this but I will go check on TSN right now.)

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Somewhat related topic,

The Tampa Bay Lightning hav arranged a press conference today to announce some breaking news apparently.

Interesting. They could conceivably make a trade I believe (as soon as both teams are eliminated from the Playoffs they are free to trade) but its rarely done out of respect for the teams who are still playing...

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