What If The Cap Drops Next Season

[tmash]

Well since speculating is fun and it is the summer, I decided to start this topic.

The cap rising (slightly) this season may have given people a false sense of security. The truth is the cap effectively dropped by about 5%, but the players were able to artificially inflate it with the downside being they are likely to lose more in escrow. They can't do this again, next season we will likely see the cap start to drop, possibly dramatically.

The other false sense of security is the Habs cap space, while we have lots right now, that is not for a 23 man roster. When you fill out the roster with relatively cheap players we are maybe 4 or 5 million from the cap. Sign Plekanek, and we are almost out of cap space.

Now after next season, what salaries does Montreal have coming off the books? Some RFAs who don't make much now and we will need to bring back, Metropolit, and Plekanek, that's about it. Metropolit will need to be replaced by someone who likely makes 600k or so, so only saves us a few hundred thousand. Plekanek, if he signs a 1 year deal, is the only real salary we may have coming off the books.

So now hypothetically say the cap drops by 10%, or about 6 million. A 10% drop in revenue is not unrealistic in this climate. Just icing our current roster now, replacing Plekanek with a rookie and assuming all RFAs make the same brings us right to the cap. But ... I haven't included raises to RFAs: Lapierre, Sergei Kostitsyn, Price, or Halak. Now if these players don't do too well next season, no big deal, I think they get a 10% reaise, but that's about it. But what if one of them (primarily Price) has a great season and is now demanding 3-5 million?

Common sense would say: trade someone. But think for a second what the trade market will be like. We won't be the only team in trouble, how many teams are there who will even have the cap space to take a big contract, and many of these teams will be trying to unload themselves? Many of those that do have cap space are too poor money wise to pay it, and the few that are left will have so many players available by trade or UFA (tons of supply, little demand) they will get some great bargains and won't want to take our over-infalted contracts. We'd have to offer them Markov or Andrei Kostitsyn, not Gomez or Gionta.

Another problem: offer sheets. A team with cap space could give Price somewhat more than he's worth, but not enough to give up tons of draft picks, on the assumption that he will be a star in a couple seasons and knowing that there is no way Montral will have the ability to match.

In either case, what would our options be? I suppose we could bury someone like Gionta or Hamrlik in the minors: not classy and a huge waste of money, but would solve the problem. We could also trade one of the few expensive players who will have value in the ugly trade climate: Markov or Andrei Kostitsyn, maybe Cammy. Maybe we could try to just "scrape by" by icing a 20 man roster, being square against the cap, picking kids out of camp with cheaper salaries instead of those who earn a spot, etc.

In any case, it could be ugly. Thoughts?

[billy-piton]

i'm sure cap won't go down so drastically. half million, or million max.

[RicochetII]

This is something all GM's should have had in their plans. There is nothing wrong with spending right up to the cap in the current season, once you know what it is, but these are the problems you run into when you spend too close to the cap in future years.

I'm really not that concerned, as there are a number of ways around it.

Burying salaries and trading players are the likely solutions. Burying salaries is a waste of money and trading players is a waste of assets if you need to entice the other team, but either can be done. A team with a low payroll could find themselves with some assets to build on at the cost of a few million, depending on how desperate teams get.

[74Kos-yn-31Price]

I don't think we'll lose Price next year because he is a RFA and we'll match any offer and find a way to make the numbers work... If he was going to be UFA, he'ld probably choose to leave the way he gets treated here... Even if you don't think Price is our future, stop throwing him under the bus for some peoples outrageous expectations...

[Rocket-1]

I'm not worried about losing Price at all.

First of all the kid is already a 2.2 million cap hit, even if he puts a 40 win season next year (which i doubt but will see, best case scenario) he still wouldn't make more than 4 million a year at his second contract.

So Price ain't the problem.

The real problem is.... the whole salary cap thing.

Huge problems are ahead, because at least 10 teams are gonna be over cap if it drops let's say by 5 million or more.

Even if these teams wanted to move some players, the teams who are in the hole big time like the Coyotes etc where the owners are losing lots of money, they simply won't want these big salaries to go their way.

So the NHL is gonna have to work something out because i smell lots of trouble coming soon.

The agent never understood the word "cap" in the first place and players are signing big deals after big deals.

[ElCapitan_mtl]

Yeah I pointed out this problem on another thread.

What I think they need to do is ring in an individual player cap too.....like 10 % of total cap. That would 5.8 million a season. That would lower the salary of elite players a little and raise the salary of the mid range players...

[ruuvimeisseli]

Yeah I pointed out this problem on another thread.

What I think they need to do is ring in an individual player cap too.....like 10 % of total cap. That would 5.8 million a season. That would lower the salary of elite players a little and raise the salary of the mid range players...

That would be fair.

[Guest olddude]

That would be fair.

That would be more than fair to every sane person on the planet. But the ego maniac's that think they are actually worth 6,7,8,9 and 10 million won't go for it.

[darren19]

In either case, what would our options be? I suppose we could bury someone like Gionta or Hamrlik in the minors: not classy and a huge waste of money, but would solve the problem. We could also trade one of the few expensive players who will have value in the ugly trade climate: Markov or Andrei Kostitsyn, maybe Cammy. Maybe we could try to just "scrape by" by icing a 20 man roster, being square against the cap, picking kids out of camp with cheaper salaries instead of those who earn a spot, etc.

In any case, it could be ugly. Thoughts?

Lamoriello did it and I don't think he cared if it was classy or not. As long as you can send big contracts in the minors, I think the team if safe.

Anyone know who has an NTC?

[SteenIsThaFuture]

I would think even if Price has a great season (which I can't envision with this defense) hes still not in a position to demand 4+ million IMO.

The cap should be around 48-50 million, but I would guess as an alternative the Habs could deal one of their dmen in Hammer, Spacek or Gill to create room. Or at worst buy any of them out if the Price situation gets out of hand.

[Guest]

Whats the actual status of the CBA??? I realize it was extended,,, but by how much exactly???If the Cap were to drop drastically as many beleive,,, wouldnt the NHL rework the agreement to alleviate the problem,,, assuming it affects a good number of clubs??

Other then those questions i would assume that a team in Cap trouble would go with reduced rosters, and weight the value of each contract vs player ( value wise) forcing moves either through trade, waiver or buyout.

[tmash]

i'm sure cap won't go down so drastically. half million, or million max.

It essentially dropped 3 million this year, but the players had a mechanism to inflate it. They can't do that again.

Burying salaries and trading players are the likely solutions. Burying salaries is a waste of money and trading players is a waste of assets if you need to entice the other team, but either can be done. A team with a low payroll could find themselves with some assets to build on at the cost of a few million, depending on how desperate teams get.

Burying can be done, but it is a really horrible solution. You'd end up with a good NHL player like Gionta or Hamrlik in the minors just because they make too much.

Trading may not be possible for many players though. Because the cap dropping would put so many teams in trouble and create such an attractive market for the few teams who can afford to take on more salary that only players on good value deals would be moveable. Gomez, Hamrlik, Gionta, Cammy, possibly others would become immovable. Supply and demand gets flipped on its head

Yeah I pointed out this problem on another thread.

What I think they need to do is ring in an individual player cap too.....like 10 % of total cap. That would 5.8 million a season. That would lower the salary of elite players a little and raise the salary of the mid range players...

Well they already have that, it's 20% though. However, that's hardly even the problem: guys are signing for fairly low dollars but signing these lifetime deals that are messing things up.

[SteenIsThaFuture]

Trading may not be possible for many players though. Because the cap dropping would put so many teams in trouble and create such an attractive market for the few teams who can afford to take on more salary that only players on good value deals would be moveable. Gomez, Hamrlik, Gionta, Cammy, possibly others would become immovable. Supply and demand gets flipped on its head

Which is why for forever I've been suggesting the Habs should take advantage of being one of those few teams and clean up next offsaon by picking up assets for cheap.

That plans out the door though

[tmash]

I would think even if Price has a great season (which I can't envision with this defense) hes still not in a position to demand 4+ million IMO.

Offer sheets. If Price has a breakout season and you're a team that needs a goaltender, is it not worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (that's barely more than we gave for Tanguay) and overpaying a bit to offer 5 million for a potential future Brodeur? This is a threat, and even without it, Price currently has a 3 million cap hit, a great season could mean looking for a nice raise.

The cap should be around 48-50 million, but I would guess as an alternative the Habs could deal one of their dmen in Hammer, Spacek or Gill to create room. Or at worst buy any of them out if the Price situation gets out of hand.

But again, in a market where there are tons of players on the trade block and only a few teams who have the money and cap space to tae them, those players become basically untradeable. The teams with cap space and money will have so many options via trade and UFA they won't be lining up to take our bad contracts off our hands. Sure, we could give up Markov or Kostitsyn, but only players considered very good value will be moveable.

Buyouts would work to lower the cap hit to approximately 1/3 in the current season though.

[flames4eva]

Offer sheets. If Price has a breakout season and you're a team that needs a goaltender, is it not worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (that's barely more than we gave for Tanguay) and overpaying a bit to offer 5 million for a potential future Brodeur? This is a threat, and even without it, Price currently has a 3 million cap hit, a great season could mean looking for a nice raise.

But again, in a market where there are tons of players on the trade block and only a few teams who have the money and cap space to tae them, those players become basically untradeable. The teams with cap space and money will have so many options via trade and UFA they won't be lining up to take our bad contracts off our hands. Sure, we could give up Markov or Kostitsyn, but only players considered very good value will be moveable.

Buyouts would work to lower the cap hit to approximately 1/3 in the current season though.

He does? I thought it was 2.2 million right now...

[tmash]

He does? I thought it was 2.2 million right now...

Sorry, that sounds right. I was thinking 2.8 for some reason.

[SteenIsThaFuture]

Offer sheets. If Price has a breakout season and you're a team that needs a goaltender, is it not worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (that's barely more than we gave for Tanguay) and overpaying a bit to offer 5 million for a potential future Brodeur? This is a threat, and even without it, Price currently has a 3 million cap hit, a great season could mean looking for a nice raise.

But who are the teams that need a goalie that have the space? I'm not denying the point, I'm just wondering who these potential suitors are. I did a basic survery of this months ago in the GM thread, but that was before this years free agency.

As you say, many many teams will have this problem (basically all mid to large markets).

But again, in a market where there are tons of players on the trade block and only a few teams who have the money and cap space to tae them, those players become basically untradeable. The teams with cap space and money will have so many options via trade and UFA they won't be lining up to take our bad contracts off our hands. Sure, we could give up Markov or Kostitsyn, but only players considered very good value will be moveable.

Buyouts would work to lower the cap hit to approximately 1/3 in the current season though.

1/3 is still something, its wiggle room.

Its definetly a problem, but I'd like to analyze the threat before we attack a solution to it.

[FirstStar]

Being in business myself, that was the 1st thing that crossed my mind when BG signed Gomez.

With all the signing going on this summer, it's as if the GM's don't believe the cap will go down.

It could leave some players without teams and some teams without enough players.

Maybe that's what the league needs, one terrible season with a few big money hungry players sitting out. Could lead to some surprising upsets and a never before seen post season.

If the ap does go down, it'll make the draft that much more important. Teams will have to rely on their farm teams instead of off season signings.

[I1IscottieI1I]

If Price has a good year I wanna see him signed for a 5 year deal at 3-4m

[tmash]

But who are the teams that need a goalie that have the space? I'm not denying the point, I'm just wondering who these potential suitors are. I did a basic survery of this months ago in the GM thread, but that was before this years free agency.

As you say, many many teams will have this problem (basically all mid to large markets).

Toronto and Edmonton off the top of my head could likely afford to do this and may be in the market for a young goaltender. I'm sure there are some others.

It could leave some players without teams and some teams without enough players.

Maybe that's what the league needs, one terrible season with a few big money hungry players sitting out. Could lead to some surprising upsets and a never before seen post season.

Next year's UFAs (and other free agents) may have to accept playing for below market value because their peers are all making above market value. It's like a pizza with only 4 slices: if you buddy takes 3 slices, you only have 1 even though you're entitled to 2 . Will they be stubborn and sit out or just accept it?

The KHL will also be interesting to watch: may be a good chance to swoop in.

[FirstStar]

Toronto and Edmonton off the top of my head could likely afford to do this and may be in the market for a young goaltender. I'm sure there are some others.

Next year's UFAs (and other free agents) may have to accept playing for below market value because their peers are all making above market value. It's like a pizza with only 4 slices: if you buddy takes 3 slices, you only have 1 even though you're entitled to 2 . Will they be stubborn and sit out or just accept it?

The KHL will also be interesting to watch: may be a good chance to swoop in.

That's what I'm waiting to find out.

[RicochetII]

Gainey should be smart this season and lock these players up before they reach RFA status.

Price is the only real concern next year, but Lapierre might look good to a few teams, as he's been raising his stock consistently. The difference with Lapierre is we could afford to match. If someone targets Price, we could be in trouble.

There are things we can do to afford any raise that might be forced upon us, but why overpay for one of "our" players based on the valuation of another team?

[ElCapitan_mtl]

Offer sheets. If Price has a breakout season and you're a team that needs a goaltender, is it not worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (that's barely more than we gave for Tanguay) and overpaying a bit to offer 5 million for a potential future Brodeur? This is a threat, and even without it, Price currently has a 3 million cap hit, a great season could mean looking for a nice raise.

But again, in a market where there are tons of players on the trade block and only a few teams who have the money and cap space to tae them, those players become basically untradeable. The teams with cap space and money will have so many options via trade and UFA they won't be lining up to take our bad contracts off our hands. Sure, we could give up Markov or Kostitsyn, but only players considered very good value will be moveable.

Buyouts would work to lower the cap hit to approximately 1/3 in the current season though.

You're forgetting there are GMs like Gainey foolish enough to take on an overpaid player....they'll still be there when the cap goes down.

[SteenIsThaFuture]

Toronto and Edmonton off the top of my head could likely afford to do this and may be in the market for a young goaltender. I'm sure there are some others.

Toronto has Toskala and Gustavsson and have 31 mil commited for that year for 9 players, and another 9 RFA's. While both of their goalies will be free agents, I think they should be more worried about fielding an actual roster of forwards. However, if they can do that, then yes they are one team who could be a threat.

Edmonton also has the Bulin wall and 43 mil commited to 12 players, I can't see them being a player.

Next year's UFAs (and other free agents) may have to accept playing for below market value because their peers are all making above market value. It's like a pizza with only 4 slices: if you buddy takes 3 slices, you only have 1 even though you're entitled to 2 . Will they be stubborn and sit out or just accept it?

The KHL will also be interesting to watch: may be a good chance to swoop in.

The KHL is in financial troubles though so I'm not sure if they can consistently bring the big bucks to top-notch players. Theres a difference between luring Jiri Hudler and Olli Jokinen.

[FirstStar]

Toronto has Toskala and Gustavsson and have 31 mil commited for that year for 9 players, and another 9 RFA's. While both of their goalies will be free agents, I think they should be more worried about fielding an actual roster of forwards. However, if they can do that, then yes they are one team who could be a threat.

Edmonton also has the Bulin wall and 43 mil commited to 12 players, I can't see them being a player.

The KHL is in financial troubles though so I'm not sure if they can consistently bring the big bucks to top-notch players. Theres a difference between luring Jiri Hudler and Olli Jokinen.

They've been good at promising big salaries, but from what I hear, not so good at keeping their promises. Emery was very happy to be back in the NHL, from what I gather, he also took a cut in pay.