Nhl's Most Efficient Spenders

[SteenIsThaFuture]

http://hockproject.blogspot.com/

In a salary-cap world, one with an Upper and Lower Limit, we are told the teams are on a level playing field, that it makes things more fair. However while this is partially true, at least in comparison to the pre-lockout NHL, this is not always the case, one merely has to look at the 08-09 cap hits to see over a twenty million difference between the top spender Philadelphia at 66.175 million (with LTIR) and Los Angeles at Atlanta at 43.591.

There are plenty of other teams that are at both extremes of the salary cap world, so much that the average cap hit according to NHL Numbers is placed between the 19th ranked Canucks according to cap hit and the 20th ranked Blue Jackets. This shows that while there are teams who spend in the upper portion, the teams that can't spend really drag the average down, noted by the five teams under the fifty million mark (Islanders, Coyotes, Predators, Kings and Thrashers).

However this post is not about crying for the poor teams, because of this seperation in dollars spent, there is a shroud of doubt around who exactly the most efficient teams/management truly is at spending money because some teams really seem to have different budgets. Did Don Waddell spend more wisely than Bob Gainey? Did Sutter spend better than Gillis? These are questions I look to answer.

Note: To skip the numbers stuff, go to the bottom for a numerical list of the NHL's best spenders.

To begin my analysis, I took a teams Goals For and Goals Against and removed the shootout goals and empty net goals. I removed the shootout goals because as shown by Alan Ryder, the shootout in itself is largely luck, while there may be skill involved and some may be better than others, from season to season there is too much lucky to properly state Team X is clearly better than Team Y at shootouts so for evaluations based on a one year sample, we have to throw shootouts out the window. Empty Net goals are thrown out for obvious reasons.

Next step is taking these new Goals For and Goals Againat, and using a prediction model. To those new to this idea, prediction models take a teams Goals For and Goals Against and show you how well your team should've done. Because we assume the scoring of goals is mostly a random distribution, as this way fo thinking has a 93.4% correlation since World War II (see page 3).

For the purpose of simplicity, I used basic Pythagorean to do this research (GF^2 / (GF^2 +GA^2))= Predicted Win %. I know PythagenPuck or Poisson are slightly better methods. However with the improved accuracy so minute, I didn't feel it was necessary for this research.

I then divided the teams PythaPoints (attained by Pytha Win % * 164) over the teams Cap Hit on the season to get a sense of which teams were the most or least efficient at using money to get points in the standings.

The work is here.

Now here is the detailed list, note the list is based on PythaPts divided by Cap Hit (in millions):

1. Bruins 1.9055

2. LA Kings 1.7809

3. Sharks 1.7455

4. Sabres 1.7464

5. Hurricanes 1.7442

6. Devils 1.7174

7. Canucks 1.707

8. Thrashers 1.676

9. Predators 1.6744

10. Red Wings 1.6704

11. Blackhawks 1.6723

12. Wild 1.6222

13. Blue Jackets 1.594

14. Penguins 1.5929

15. Blues 1.5226

16. Panthers 1.5052

17. Ducks 1.4753

18. Capitals 1.4642

19. Senators 1.4309

20. Coyotes 1.427

21. Canadiens 1.4198

22. Flames 1.4047

23. Leafs 1.3559

24. Oilers 1.3558

25. Rangers 1.3525

26. Flyers 1.3427

27. Stars 1.2813

28. Avalanche 1.2714

29. Lightning 1.2393

30. Islanders 1.211

The outliers are what make this list intriguing,

You have teams like the Preds and Thrashers in the top ten and the Kings at number two and the Sabres (who ar perenially underrated) at number four. Then you have big spenders at the bottom like Philly and the Rangers who can't turn their spending sprees into W's. The leagues elite though who have managment smarts and money always rise to the top, such as Boston, San Jose, New Jersey and co.

I'm not going to sit here though and claim Darcy Regier is a better GM than Ken Holland, because his lack of cap hit may be because he struck out on free agents or just didn't see the need to spend at this time. We also don't know what teams budgets are so we don't know whether some GM's can't spend or didn't spend.

What we do know from this list is this : According to their teams respective Cap Hits in 2008-2009, this is what the team was able to produce, to say the least the list is at least interesting.

[FirstStar]

Interesting project you're working on.

Unfortunately, in the game of hockey (and like many other sports), you don't always see the true value of a trade/contract/buyout, etc... for months, in some case it can take years.

But, imo the team that has done the best job since the lockout (in the new "cap" NHL), is the Detroit Red Wings. Not only have they found 1st liners in the 4th and 5th rounds of the drafts, they've managed to keep their players with low salaries.

This has always puzzled me... A few years ago, Bob couldn't land us a star player to save his life. Shanahan, Hossa, Sundin, etc, decided to sign else where, in some cases taking less money to play elsewhere (exclude Sundin).

Why has Detroit been so successful in a cap world?

I think it comes down to management, it surely isn't the economy in the motor city. The management in Detroit is so well put together and runs like a well tuned machine, that players are drawn to Detroit. With all the problems the City of Detroit has faced (with many plants closing and cutting back), the 1st response should've been, "stay away from Detroit, it's turning into a ghost town...They're won't be anyone left to go to the games and even if there are hockey fans in Detroit, they won't be able to afford the game". But that isn't the case, in fact just last summer Hossa signed with Detroit for less money. He said it was cos he felt that it was his best chance for the cup. For the past 15 years, the Red Wings have maintained a winning record.

I grew up in Michigan and also lived for a while in Detroit before moving to Grand Rapids. I'll be honest here, Detroit isn't a beautiful city, sure it's known for the car companies and for it's place in musical history-motown. But this isn't the 40's anymore and the American Car companies are in trouble. It doesn't have the charm or draw of NY, LA, Philadelphia, Chicago or even Boston. Yet, they've seen their share of stars sign with them... Shanahan, Hasek and Hossa (to name a few).

If anything, Detroit have proved it takes a well (almost superbly) run organization to draw the big names. Now, sticking with the same point, is it just a coincidence that Scotty left Detroit to join his son in Chicago and so did some of the Detroit player's (mainly Hudler and Hossa), could this mean there's a wrinkle in Detroit's armor since Bowman left?

They still made it to the cup finals last season, obviously they are still doing something right. Hossa signing with Chicago doesn't surprise me in the least, specially with Havlat leaving. But Hudler jumping to the KHL, does raise some questions. Was he no longer happy in Detroit, despite having a "career high" season?

Was he just homesick or was signing with the KHL his only way of getting out of his contract and/or Detroit?

Have Hudler and Hossa started a trend, will there be a turn around in hockey town, are player's wanting out of Detroit instead of lining up to join the team?

A lot of people around the league and fans as well, believe that Detroit low-ball's their player's and doesn't pay them fairly. For the last 10 years they've managed to acquire some very big names, despite these allegations.

Sorry to go off topic a lil bit MP, but this is something that's been playing in my mind ever since I heard that Scotty joined the Hawks. Building a team is no different than building a house or building. Every piece is important, from the ground, the foundation, the bricks, the materials used and even who's been putting this house together. From the ground up, Detroit have had themselves a great organization for the past decade or so. Has Scotty's departure left a crack in Detroit's foundation, have one of the supporting mounts been taken away?

I personally don't like the wings, but I admire what they've done in Detroit. From the scouts (European especially), to the players, the coaching staff and the office staff. Given Detroit's shaky economy, and it's shaky, I have family in Michigan and southern Ontario (Windsor, St Catherine's, etc...), everything I've heard from them is that the City itself is in big trouble (or have been, starting slowly to level off). They've especially felt it in Windsor and it's all tied to Detroit. This isn't a one sport town, the Tiger's are there, the Pistons, the Lion's, how have the wing's been able to keep their fan base and land stars when the people of Detroit are out of work and have 3 other sports to contend with?

It's a lil off topic MP, I apologize, but I really thought you'd find this interesting. It kind of ties in with your thread. Bettman keeps talking about needing a strong economy for a team to thrive in a certain city. Detroit's proven the opposite, Atlanta's on of the biggest cities in the south, yet, like you've mentioned, they're among the teams who spend the least, let's no forget they're also way down there in the standings.

You could probably write a paper on Detroit alone. I was just talking from memory, I wonder what I would've found if I had done some research. But, I'm busy with my own business and don't have the time for projects, I'll leave that up to you.

Since no one has responded yet, I thought I'd add something to the thread.

-FS

[SteenIsThaFuture]

Interesting project you're working on.

Unfortunately, in the game of hockey (and like many other sports), you don't always see the true value of a trade/contract/buyout, etc... for months, in some case it can take years.

That wasn't at all what I was talking about but sure I agree

But, imo the team that has done the best job since the lockout (in the new "cap" NHL), is the Detroit Red Wings. Not only have they found 1st liners in the 4th and 5th rounds of the drafts, they've managed to keep their players with low salaries.

That would be due to Hakan Andersson, Detroi's head of European scouting, hes on of the greatest minds in the game. On your point of low salries... uh not quite, here are the salaries (with cap hits in brackets for 09-10)

Datsyuk 6.7 (6.7)

Zetterberg 7.4 (6.083)

Franzen 5.5 (3.955)

Lidtsrom 7.45 (7.45)

Rafalski 6.0 (6.0

Those are some pretty steep "salaries" what Detroit has execelled at has been taking advantage of the CBA and the cap hits, not being economical.

This has always puzzled me... A few years ago, Bob couldn't land us a star player to save his life. Shanahan, Hossa, Sundin, etc, decided to sign else where, in some cases taking less money to play elsewhere (exclude Sundin).

Theres the taxes and the uniqueness of Montreal too, being school, language etc.

If anything, Detroit have proved it takes a well (almost superbly) run organization to draw the big names. Now, sticking with the same point, is it just a coincidence that Scotty left Detroit to join his son in Chicago and so did some of the Detroit player's (mainly Hudler and Hossa), could this mean there's a wrinkle in Detroit's armor since Bowman left?

I doubt it, we can't say how good a management guy Bowman was, we have no proof. Its like saying Parcells is brilliant for constructing the Dolphins, what exactly did he do?

Of course it takes consistent success to draw names (who want to win) and having a strong roster.

[SteenIsThaFuture]

They still made it to the cup finals last season, obviously they are still doing something right. Hossa signing with Chicago doesn't surprise me in the least, specially with Havlat leaving. But Hudler jumping to the KHL, does raise some questions. Was he no longer happy in Detroit, despite having a "career high" season?

No Hudler wanted more money, Detroits capped out. That was the reason for Hossa too, not enough money.

I personally don't like the wings, but I admire what they've done in Detroit. From the scouts (European especially), to the players, the coaching staff and the office staff. Given Detroit's shaky economy, and it's shaky, I have family in Michigan and southern Ontario (Windsor, St Catherine's, etc...), everything I've heard from them is that the City itself is in big trouble (or have been, starting slowly to level off). They've especially felt it in Windsor and it's all tied to Detroit. This isn't a one sport town, the Tiger's are there, the Pistons, the Lion's, how have the wing's been able to keep their fan base and land stars when the people of Detroit are out of work and have 3 other sports to contend with?

Uhh well the Lions aren't a pro team so they don't count.

How do the Flyers spend 60+ million on salaries despite the 76ers, Eagles and WS winning Phillies? Theres a long history of hockey in Detroit and they will always have a fanbase (aka the key to establishing franchises in markets and not relocating during bad times, the key to the Sunbelt plan).

It's a lil off topic MP, I apologize, but I really thought you'd find this interesting. It kind of ties in with your thread. Bettman keeps talking about needing a strong economy for a team to thrive in a certain city. Detroit's proven the opposite, Atlanta's on of the biggest cities in the south, yet, like you've mentioned, they're among the teams who spend the least, let's no forget they're also way down there in the standings.

Like I said, Detroits an Original 6 team. Unless they really start to crap out like Chicago did, fans will still come. Atlanta just needs to win consistently and they'll get fans.

Since no one has responded yet, I thought I'd add something to the thread.

-FS

Umm thanks but the topic was about which teams spend the best You covered #10, so you have about 29 more articles to write.