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Habs Magic Number 10/11 Season


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Another season is upon us and this thread will help us chart our march towards the playoffs. Chocolate has once again

( thankfully) agreed to do the calculations and bonus point analysis for this year. He has informed me that he will be busy the first month or so of the season but will do his utmost to do the updates. He will be doing bonus analysis later into the season but has indicated that anybody who knows how the formula works,, is more then welcome to post their own analysis in here, in the meantime. Let's get started with a bang and knock off a quick 2 ( or more) on Thursday. ;)

WHAT IS THE MN ( MAGIC NUMBER)

The MN is a mathematical calculation of how many points are required by the Habs to be GUARANTEED a playoff position.

HOW DOES IT WORK

The starting number is 165. This number is based on 82 games at 2 points each for a total of 164. We must add another point as the tie breaker thus totaling 165.

This number is reduced by 2 points for every regulation, overtime or shootout VICTORY by the Habs.

Its reduced by 1 point for every overtime or shootout loss by the Habs ( considered a TIE).

The number can also be reduced by what we call BONUS POINTS.

These occur whenever the team(s) in 9th place loses points ( 2 for regulation loss and 1 for OT or SO loss) whether or not the Habs are playing on that day.

NOTE: not all teams will have played an equal amount of games on any given point of the season therefore calculations are bassed on net losses.

OTHER MN NUMBERS

MN EPD ( Estimated Party Date )NUMBER

This number is a prediction of when the MN will hit 0 based on current pace of points accumulated to date,,, and the maintaining of that pace going forward.

MN HOME ICE, DIVISION & CONFERENCE NUMBERS

Same principle is applied as the regular MN number. When these numbers hit 0 then we have clinched that honour.

MN T.O. NO GO NUMBER

A different twist to this number. When it reaches 0 then the LEAFS are officially ELIMINATED from the playoffs.

Other NO GO numbers will be added later on in the season when playoff races develop.

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Another season is upon us and this thread will help us chart our march towards the playoffs. Chocolate has once again

( thankfully) agreed to do the calculations and bonus point analysis for this year. He has informed me that he will be busy the first month or so of the season but will do his utmost to do the updates. He will be doing bonus analysis later into the season but has indicated that anybody who knows how the formula works,, is more then welcome to post their own analysis in here, in the meantime. Let's get started with a bang and knock off a quick 2 ( or more) on Thursday. ;)

WHAT IS THE MN ( MAGIC NUMBER)

The MN is a mathematical calculation of how many points are required by the Habs to be GUARANTEED a playoff position.

HOW DOES IT WORK

The starting number is 165. This number is based on 82 games at 2 points each for a total of 164. We must add another point as the tie breaker thus totaling 165.

This number is reduced by 2 points for every regulation, overtime or shootout VICTORY by the Habs.

Its reduced by 1 point for every overtime or shootout loss by the Habs ( considered a TIE).

The number can also be reduced by what we call BONUS POINTS.

These occur whenever the team(s) in 9th place loses points ( 2 for regulation loss and 1 for OT or SO loss) whether or not the Habs are playing on that day.

NOTE: not all teams will have played an equal amount of games on any given point of the season therefore calculations are bassed on net losses.

OTHER MN NUMBERS

MN EPD ( Estimated Party Date )NUMBER

This number is a prediction of when the MN will hit 0 based on current pace of points accumulated to date,,, and the maintaining of that pace going forward.

MN HOME ICE, DIVISION & CONFERENCE NUMBERS

Same principle is applied as the regular MN number. When these numbers hit 0 then we have clinched that honour.

MN T.O. NO GO NUMBER

A different twist to this number. When it reaches 0 then the LEAFS are officially ELIMINATED from the playoffs.

Other NO GO numbers will be added later on in the season when playoff races develop.

This thread = one of the best parts of hockey season :D

Welcome back everyone, and thanks again Choc in advance :)

I can probably handle the figuring out of the magic number in his absence, but I've never figured out how to post a picture on these forums so we'll need another volunteer for the tables.

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Good to see this is up and running again :D

One thing for consideration... a new NHL rule changes the way that tie breakers will be determined whereby shootout victorys will not be counted. Does this affect the MN calculation?

From the way I understand it, a true MN=0 would require the Habs earning 1 more point than the 9th place team, making the tie-breakers a non factor.

I could be wrong though (wouldn't be the first time :lol: )

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Good to see this is up and running again :D

One thing for consideration... a new NHL rule changes the way that tie breakers will be determined whereby shootout victorys will not be counted. Does this affect the MN calculation?

From the way I understand it, a true MN=0 would require the Habs earning 1 more point than the 9th place team, making the tie-breakers a non factor.

I could be wrong though (wouldn't be the first time :lol: )

Im pretty sure that GTPO has it correct. The MN is based on hard points and doesnt take tie breaking procedures into effect. If i'm not mistaken,,,,we actually clinched a little earlier last year because of the tie breaker rules ( wins), which reduced our actual mathematical number.

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This thread = one of the best parts of hockey season :D

Welcome back everyone, and thanks again Choc in advance :)

I can probably handle the figuring out of the magic number in his absence, but I've never figured out how to post a picture on these forums so we'll need another volunteer for the tables.

Thanks for that Manatee. BTW,,,,your not the only one who hasnt figured out that picture thingy. :P

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Im pretty sure that GTPO has it correct. The MN is based on hard points and doesnt take tie breaking procedures into effect. If i'm not mistaken,,,,we actually clinched a little earlier last year because of the tie breaker rules ( wins), which reduced our actual mathematical number.

Was that wins excluding the shootouts?

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Was that wins excluding the shootouts?

I wasnt 100% sure about the tie breaker from last season HHN,,,but i beleive we had the wins tie breaker, vs a bunch of teams that were in the hunt with us for a spot last season ( and yes,,,those did include shootout wins last year but wont this season). ;)

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From the way I understand it, a true MN=0 would require the Habs earning 1 more point than the 9th place team, making the tie-breakers a non factor.

I could be wrong though (wouldn't be the first time :lol: )

Im pretty sure that GTPO has it correct. The MN is based on hard points and doesnt take tie breaking procedures into effect. If i'm not mistaken,,,,we actually clinched a little earlier last year because of the tie breaker rules ( wins), which reduced our actual mathematical number.

Quite right, both of you :)

That's why we start the MN countdown at 165 and not 164 = that extra point is there to remove any of the ambiguity surrounding tie-breaking procedures. When that number hits zero it means that we're in the playoffs, no ifs ands or buts about it.

It's technically possible that we get into the playoffs with a magic number of one, which I believe is what happened last year. We just need to be tied for eigth and win the tiebreaker against the other team.

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Anyways folks, just for kicks, lets start the season off with our first (semi-) official MN update! We'll have to wait on our friend chocolate to return for all the fancy graphics (and to double-check that I'm doing it right :P) but for now, here we go:

The current magic number is 165, and the Habs are currently tied for 1st on the NL table.... with fourteen other teams :P. Hopefully that's not the last time this year that I get to say we're in the lead (wishful thinking?), but I digress...

There are no bonuses available, as so few teams are playing that the 9th place team after tonight won't have played a game. There's nothing much to be said for future bonuses either, except for the usual rule of hoping that all games end in regulation (and obviously that one in particular ends in regulation with the Habs on top ;)) and hoping that Western Conference teams win out (so in this case we want a Carolina loss).

Team GR NL

1 Montreal Canadiens......82.......0

2 Carolina Hurricanes......82.......0

3 Pittsburgh Penguins......82.......0

4 Philadelphea Flyers.......82.......0

5 Buffalo Sabres.............82.......0

6 Atlanta Thrashers.........82.......0

7 Washington Capitals.....82.......0

8 New York Rangers........82.......0

----------------------------------------------

9 New York Islanders.......82.......0

10 Ottawa Senators..........82.......0

11 New Jersey Devils.........82.......0

12 Boston Bruins...............82.......0

13 New Jersey Devils.........82.......0

14 Tampa Bay Lightning.....82.......0

15 Toronto Maple Leafs......82.......0

GO HABS GO!!!

It feels great to have hockey back :)

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Don't we want a Boston no-go magic number as well?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the Toronto NO GO number came about via a special request by HateThoseLeafs several years ago :P

Nearer to the end of the season we normally start putting up the NO GO numbers for any other teams who are in danger of missing out on the dance, but it's just a little too much to keep track of them all throughout the year. From the look of their team (and especially if Savard comes back well enough to play like his usual self) I'm guessing that Boston will unfortunately not be one of the numbers we'll be following very closely.

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I have never seen this thread before

That's why I got it wrong trying to keep score

Great it's another place for me

So that I can always see

That our HABS are doing well

How far we'll go who can tell

But for me the only place is number one

Won't be happy until it's done

Gotta get ourselves a cup while I'm still able

To read and digest a hockey table

So to all of you out there

Your the ones that really care

Lets give our team all the support it needs

So that we can sow the seeds

Of the path to Stanley

GO HABS GO :D :D

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Well,,,no points tonight :(

Missed the first period but i liked what i saw the rest of the game. Despite our missing stars, we still were a handfull for the Leafs, and could have easily been on the other side of the final result. I guess we wait till game 2 for the first MN move down.

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Well overall.... that could have gone better. There's always next time, though, and hopefully we'll start to see some movement this Saturday. As my father likes to say, we're just backing up to get a run on :)

The current magic number is still 165

There are again no bonuses available, as once more the 8th place team after tonight won't have played a game. For future bonuses we want to see the best from the West, meaning wins for Minnesota and Dallas over Carolina and Jersey, respectively.

Team GR NL

1 Carolina Hurricanes......81.......0

2 Philadelphea Flyers.......81.......0

3 Toronto Maple Leafs......81.......0

4 New Jersey Devils.........82.......0

5 Buffalo Sabres.............82.......0

6 Atlanta Thrashers.........82.......0

7 Washington Capitals.....82.......0

8 New York Rangers........82.......0

----------------------------------------------

9 New York Islanders.......82.......0

10 Ottawa Senators..........82.......0

11 New Jersey Devils.........82.......0

12 Boston Bruins...............82.......0

13 Tampa Bay Lightning.....82.......0

14 Montreal Canadiens......81.......1

15 Pittsburgh Penguins......81.......1

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Well,,,no points tonight :(

Missed the first period but i liked what i saw the rest of the game. Despite our missing stars, we still were a handfull for the Leafs, and could have easily been on the other side of the final result. I guess we wait till game 2 for the first MN move down.

Don't forget that Price was not in top shape either...

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Well,,,no points tonight :(

Missed the first period but i liked what i saw the rest of the game. Despite our missing stars, we still were a handfull for the Leafs, and could have easily been on the other side of the final result. I guess we wait till game 2 for the first MN move down.

Yeah our PK has been excellent from what i have seen.

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Happy 1st Points Off Night!

MN should be 163, right? I can't imagine there was a bonus kicking around so early in the season.

I absolutely LOVE that we totally stole points from the Penguins. :lol::P :P :lol:

Methinks your correct. Our first move of the season on an awesome comeback victory.Well done. :D

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Hey folks, sorry I haven't been keeping up to date with the whole MN thing but it's been pretty hectic around here and I haven't had much time to get on to the forum.

As far as I can tell at a glance, the magic number is currently at 161. As always, we'll reduce it by two points when the Habs mop the floor with the lightning tonight :)

There are no bonuses available tonight. In terms of future bonuses: believe it or not, as the standings currently sit it would be theoretically be preferable to have Buffalo, NYI and Toronto win their games. Seeing as how I can't see them staying ahead of NJ, Washington or Pittsburgh for much of the season, however, I think we can safely wish for the aforementioned three teams to lose.

Especially, of course, in the latter game ;)

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Well,,,we knocked one off anyways. Another great game by Carrey ruined by a late week call. Oh well. Time to put it behind us and go hunt some Buffalo. I'm trying my best to go see this one in person (if possible) and put my perfect 9 and 0 record on the line, Working on it. ;)

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Well,,,we knocked one off anyways. Another great game by Carrey ruined by a late week call. Oh well. Time to put it behind us and go hunt some Buffalo. I'm trying my best to go see this one in person (if possible) and put my perfect 9 and 0 record on the line, Working on it. ;)

We should be used to this already (mid-week... but it was weak) :huh: Well 3 out of a possible 6 points in the standings is better than ZERO. And the MN did go down :D

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We should be used to this already (mid-week... but it was weak) :huh: Well 3 out of a possible 6 points in the standings is better than ZERO. And the MN did go down :D

I flunked English HHN. :lol:

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