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Habs Magic Number 11/12 Season


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Another season is upon us and this thread will help us chart our march towards the playoffs. We've had a few members do the calculations on a daily basis in past years. Hopefully this season will be no different. I haven't received official notice from any member as of today,,,, so if you are able to contribute in running this thread,,,please state that intention in here, and thank you in advance. ;)

This is how it works............

WHAT IS THE MN ( MAGIC NUMBER)

The MN is a mathematical calculation of how many points are required by the Habs to be GUARANTEED a playoff position.

HOW DOES IT WORK

The starting number is 165. This number is based on 82 games at 2 points each for a total of 164. We must add another point as the tie breaker thus totaling 165.

This number is reduced by 2 points for every regulation, overtime or shootout VICTORY by the Habs.

Its reduced by 1 point for every overtime or shootout loss by the Habs ( considered a TIE).

The number can also be reduced by what we call BONUS POINTS.

These occur whenever the team(s) in 9th place loses points ( 2 for regulation loss and 1 for OT or SO loss) whether or not the Habs are playing on that day.

NOTE: not all teams will have played an equal amount of games on any given point of the season therefore calculations are bassed on net losses.

OTHER MN NUMBERS

MN EPD ( Estimated Party Date )NUMBER

This number is a prediction of when the MN will hit 0 based on current pace of points accumulated to date,,, and the maintaining of that pace going forward.

MN HOME ICE, DIVISION & CONFERENCE NUMBERS

Same principle is applied as the regular MN number. When these numbers hit 0 then we have clinched that honour.

MN T.O. NO GO NUMBER

A different twist to this number. When it reaches 0 then the LEAFS are officially ELIMINATED from the playoffs.

Looking forward to our first point drop of the season vs the Leafs. :D

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Just a question HTL,,,,for me,,,I will be willing to get into it, but it seems too confusing to me (I am probably alone on this :( ). However, if and when I am able to "connect the dots" and can get in on this, will I be able to join in the prognostications as the games move forward? :unsure:

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Just a question HTL,,,,for me,,,I will be willing to get into it, but it seems too confusing to me (I am probably alone on this :( ). However, if and when I am able to "connect the dots" and can get in on this, will I be able to join in the prognostications as the games move forward? :unsure:

You aren't alone, but I do have quite a bit more time on my hands as of late, I will try to figure it out and try to do some updates, but I'm not going to be able to do this daily full time as others have in the past...

That is, I will give a definite maybe.

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You aren't alone, but I do have quite a bit more time on my hands as of late, I will try to figure it out and try to do some updates, but I'm not going to be able to do this daily full time as others have in the past...

That is, I will give a definite maybe.

OK,,a defintie maybe,,,,can I count on that? :lol:

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About time! I almost started this thread myself yesterday though I'm glad I didn't.

I can certainly help out with updates. I pitched in with bonus updates on Manatee's behalf last season when he was unavailable. Choc still provided the main update when he could. Otherwise, I think I can figure things out if needs be.

That said, GO HABS! Let's knock a pair off that number right out of the gate. It would be nice to see the MN start with a hit while seeing the TO-NO-GO take a tumble, too. :):D

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When I get some time this weekend I'm going to try and wrap my head around the formula here and maybe I can whip out a quick app to track it...I think I can easily enough pull the statistics from NHL.com either through a syndicated feed or scrape it...

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Holy Moley, I almost forgot all about this thread! The playoffs still seem a long way off, I guess :P

In any case, tonight's breakdown is pretty easy :). No Bonuses, and hopefully a Habs victory!

I haven't seen choc around these parts in a while, but I'm hoping that he'll saunter back in heroically before too long. I don't mind keeping up the tables in his absence. I think while waiting for the game to start tonight after work I might even try to do something up in Excel so that you won't have to suffer through my low-budget updates again :P

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Thanks to all the volunteers. I haven't heard from our very busy chocolate as of yet, but its great to see some of our previous vets stepping up to pitch in. There is an actual formula floating around somewhere, however,,,being math challenged, it still seemed a little over my head. :P All the math genes were passed on to my eldest daughter who happens to have a masters in statistics.Go figure. :lol:

F.L. & manatee ,,,you did an awesome job filling in for choc in the bonus updates last year. That seems the most complicated to keep track of (especially early on) when multiple teams are floating around that 9th spot.Appreciate your work in that area. ;)

Thanks to , kinot, unci and Corazu for your interest and contributions also.

Let's get this puppy moving early and fast. :D

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Been looking foward to this thread all summer. Now I'm looking forward to watching it drop!!!!

As far as the formula, it's going to take a lot of rum to figure out & that's even after Manatee explained it to me!

That's exactly my formula for figuring out the formula. :P :P

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Holy Moley, I almost forgot all about this thread! The playoffs still seem a long way off, I guess :P

In any case, tonight's breakdown is pretty easy :). No Bonuses, and hopefully a Habs victory!

I haven't seen choc around these parts in a while, but I'm hoping that he'll saunter back in heroically before too long. I don't mind keeping up the tables in his absence. I think while waiting for the game to start tonight after work I might even try to do something up in Excel so that you won't have to suffer through my low-budget updates again :P

that would be great man much appreciated..

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By the way, for everyone's benefit (in particular if there's anyone new or anyone who's had too much rum ;)), here's the simplest way to find our magic number.

Basically the whole idea behind the number is the question: "How many points would we need if every other team won every other game for the rest of the year".. Obviously that can't actually happen (if one team wins another has to lose) but that's what we use, since the number is kind of a worst-case scenario sort of thing.

So at the beginning of the year if every team won every game they'd all have 164 points - hence the starting magic number being 165. As teams start to lose games that number goes down: Boston, for example, can't possibly get more than 162 points after their loss last night. That's why you'll see us use the NL (or number of losses) standings instead of the regular standings to rank teams; other teams' max season points only go down when they lose (they stay the same when they win).

But we don't have to beat every team, we just need to make the playoffs (for magic Number purposes, anyway). So all we need to do is beat the team in eigth place. So to find the magic number, look at the team who is currently eigth in the NL standings. Find their maximum season points, which is the number of games they have remaining times two points/game, plus the number of points they already have. That's the number of points we'll need in order to make the playoffs in our worst-case magic number scenario.

After that we just subtract the number of points we already have (which should eventually be more than zero <_<) and voila, there's your magic number!

For the mathematically inclined, I'll summarize it as follows:

MN = (G) * 2 + P - H

Where

G = 8th place team's games remaining

P = 8th place team's points

H = Habs' points

Hope that helps!

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By the way, for everyone's benefit (in particular if there's anyone new or anyone who's had too much rum ;)), here's the simplest way to find our magic number.

Basically the whole idea behind the number is the question: "How many points would we need if every other team won every other game for the rest of the year".. Obviously that can't actually happen (if one team wins another has to lose) but that's what we use, since the number is kind of a worst-case scenario sort of thing.

So at the beginning of the year if every team won every game they'd all have 164 points - hence the starting magic number being 165. As teams start to lose games that number goes down: Boston, for example, can't possibly get more than 162 points after their loss last night. That's why you'll see us use the NL (or number of losses) standings instead of the regular standings to rank teams; other teams' max season points only go down when they lose (they stay the same when they win).

But we don't have to beat every team, we just need to make the playoffs (for magic Number purposes, anyway). So all we need to do is beat the team in eigth place. So to find the magic number, look at the team who is currently eigth in the NL standings. Find their maximum season points, which is the number of games they have remaining times two points/game, plus the number of points they already have. That's the number of points we'll need in order to make the playoffs in our worst-case magic number scenario.

After that we just subtract the number of points we already have (which should eventually be more than zero <_<) and voila, there's your magic number!

For the mathematically inclined, I'll summarize it as follows:

MN = (G) * 2 + P - H

Where

G = 8th place team's games remaining

P = 8th place team's points

H = Habs' points

Hope that helps!

This makes it much easier to understand. I should be able to cook something up to do everything automatically assuming I can find a reliable source for the game stats...worse comes to worse I'll scrape it.

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By the way, for everyone's benefit (in particular if there's anyone new or anyone who's had too much rum ;)), here's the simplest way to find our magic number.

Basically the whole idea behind the number is the question: "How many points would we need if every other team won every other game for the rest of the year".. Obviously that can't actually happen (if one team wins another has to lose) but that's what we use, since the number is kind of a worst-case scenario sort of thing.

So at the beginning of the year if every team won every game they'd all have 164 points - hence the starting magic number being 165. As teams start to lose games that number goes down: Boston, for example, can't possibly get more than 162 points after their loss last night. That's why you'll see us use the NL (or number of losses) standings instead of the regular standings to rank teams; other teams' max season points only go down when they lose (they stay the same when they win).

But we don't have to beat every team, we just need to make the playoffs (for magic Number purposes, anyway). So all we need to do is beat the team in eigth place. So to find the magic number, look at the team who is currently eigth in the NL standings. Find their maximum season points, which is the number of games they have remaining times two points/game, plus the number of points they already have. That's the number of points we'll need in order to make the playoffs in our worst-case magic number scenario.

After that we just subtract the number of points we already have (which should eventually be more than zero <_<) and voila, there's your magic number!

For the mathematically inclined, I'll summarize it as follows:

MN = (G) * 2 + P - H

Where

G = 8th place team's games remaining

P = 8th place team's points

H = Habs' points

Hope that helps!

Thanks for that dummied down version for us Manatee. Looks good. ;)

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By the way, for everyone's benefit (in particular if there's anyone new or anyone who's had too much rum ;)), here's the simplest way to find our magic number.

Basically the whole idea behind the number is the question: "How many points would we need if every other team won every other game for the rest of the year".. Obviously that can't actually happen (if one team wins another has to lose) but that's what we use, since the number is kind of a worst-case scenario sort of thing.

So at the beginning of the year if every team won every game they'd all have 164 points - hence the starting magic number being 165. As teams start to lose games that number goes down: Boston, for example, can't possibly get more than 162 points after their loss last night. That's why you'll see us use the NL (or number of losses) standings instead of the regular standings to rank teams; other teams' max season points only go down when they lose (they stay the same when they win).

But we don't have to beat every team, we just need to make the playoffs (for magic Number purposes, anyway). So all we need to do is beat the team in eigth place. So to find the magic number, look at the team who is currently eigth in the NL standings. Find their maximum season points, which is the number of games they have remaining times two points/game, plus the number of points they already have. That's the number of points we'll need in order to make the playoffs in our worst-case magic number scenario.

After that we just subtract the number of points we already have (which should eventually be more than zero <_<) and voila, there's your magic number!

For the mathematically inclined, I'll summarize it as follows:

MN = (G) * 2 + P - H

Where

G = 8th place team's games remaining

P = 8th place team's points

H = Habs' points

Hope that helps!

Exactly what I thought! ;)

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By the way, for everyone's benefit (in particular if there's anyone new or anyone who's had too much rum ;)), here's the simplest way to find our magic number.

Basically the whole idea behind the number is the question: "How many points would we need if every other team won every other game for the rest of the year".. Obviously that can't actually happen (if one team wins another has to lose) but that's what we use, since the number is kind of a worst-case scenario sort of thing.

So at the beginning of the year if every team won every game they'd all have 164 points - hence the starting magic number being 165. As teams start to lose games that number goes down: Boston, for example, can't possibly get more than 162 points after their loss last night. That's why you'll see us use the NL (or number of losses) standings instead of the regular standings to rank teams; other teams' max season points only go down when they lose (they stay the same when they win).

But we don't have to beat every team, we just need to make the playoffs (for magic Number purposes, anyway). So all we need to do is beat the team in eigth place. So to find the magic number, look at the team who is currently eigth in the NL standings. Find their maximum season points, which is the number of games they have remaining times two points/game, plus the number of points they already have. That's the number of points we'll need in order to make the playoffs in our worst-case magic number scenario.

After that we just subtract the number of points we already have (which should eventually be more than zero <_<) and voila, there's your magic number!

For the mathematically inclined, I'll summarize it as follows:

MN = (G) * 2 + P - H

Where

G = 8th place team's games remaining

P = 8th place team's points

H = Habs' points

Hope that helps!

Well said, Manatee. I wouldn't have dreamed of trying to say it any better myself.

One point of concern, though: isn't the MN based on beating the 9th place team? That would put us in 8th, which is good enough for the playoffs.

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Well said, Manatee. I wouldn't have dreamed of trying to say it any better myself.

One point of concern, though: isn't the MN based on beating the 9th place team? That would put us in 8th, which is good enough for the playoffs.

Well there's the rub :P. I didn't want to get into it in the initial explanation so as not to complicate things, but it changes depending on where we currently are in the NL standings.

If we're currently sitting out of the playoff picture (like we are right now) then we need to overcome the eighth place team and we therefore use team 8 in our formulae.

I'f we're currently one of the top eight teams ourselves (like we were all of last year) then we simply need to stay ahead of the ninth place team, and therefore use team 9 in our formulae.

If we want to get technical I guess you could say that we always use the team that would be eighth place if the Habs weren't part of the standings, but I'm not sure if that sentence makes things clearer or fogs them up :P

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