2012 NHL Entry Draft

[Guest]

Link to official source regarding the news I have posted before.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=635992

Thanks for that link. That is pretty unbelievable.

[henrique_rauen]

Thanks for that link. That is pretty unbelievable.

Not a problem. I apologize for using a blog the first time.

[DA_Champion]

Thanks for that link. That is pretty unbelievable.

We made the same offer to Pittsburgh in the Mario Lemieux draft.

They turned us down but it was the best draft in Habs history anyway.

[roy_133]

Hard to believe the Isles would offer that much.

It sounds like more than it is. The success rate of players outside of the first couple of rounds is really low.

[THEBIGGESTHABSFAN123]

It sounds like more than it is. The success rate of players outside of the first couple of rounds is really low.

Ya, some people overvalue draft picks.

[jennifer_rocket]

It sounds like more than it is. The success rate of players outside of the first couple of rounds is really low.

Yes, for certain, but it still seems like a dumb move. Were I Columbus I would have taken that deal.

[BeanCountingHab]

Yes, for certain, but it still seems like a dumb move. Were I Columbus I would have taken that deal.

It's a lot, but I think the rumour was that deal was only on the table if Edmonton didn't take Yakupov with the first pick. It makes a little more sense when you consider that.

[jennifer_rocket]

It's a lot, but I think the rumour was that deal was only on the table if Edmonton didn't take Yakupov with the first pick. It makes a little more sense when you consider that.

Oh yes, gotcha. I thought it was because they wanted Murray so badly. I couldn't understand why.

[BigTed3]

Ya, some people overvalue draft picks.

It really depends how you look at draft picks. If you tell yourself a lower-round draft choice could turn into Datsyuk, markov, or Halak, you're technically right but the chances of that happening are exceedingly low. I presented the data on this a while back, but the odds of a pick post-2nd/3rd round making an impact in the NHL is quite low. If you take 30 teams with 20 players in the line-up on a given night, then outside of injuries, the league really only features 600 guys. Of those, let's remove the back-up goalies, 4th line players, and one D man per team, as those guys tend to be in heavy rotation and have shorter tenures/ lesser impact in the NHL. Doing that, we're down to 450 players per season who actually have a significant impact in the league. I'd venture a guess that of those top-9 forwards, top-5 D men, and starting goalies, the average career spans about 8 seasons. Some guys play less due to injury, some play longer. But just using that as a benchmark means that in any given draft year, you're looking at under 60 picks per draft making the NHL in any significant capacity. You can adjust the numbers somewhat (as this is just an educated guess), but the point remains unchanged: that after the 2nd-3rd round, those picks don't end up yielding a whole lot.

So why trade for picks at all? Well, there are still some advantages. There is still the chance that a pick could become a home run. People gamble for the same reason, and teams are sometimes willing to take a chance that they can nail a pick and that it can help turn a franchise around. It would be like saying you can have the proven 15-20 goal scorer on your roster or you could take the chance on what's behind door number two... a 5% chance of finding a 30 goal scorer. Picks are also younger, they're cheaper, and you can develop them into your own system. All of those things can be advantages. We can look at guys like Dietz, Stejskal, Bennett, Nash, etc. and say that individually, none of them offer a high probability of making an impact in the NHL... but if only one of them turns into a solid NHL defenceman, then it was probably worth having those picks/prospects and developing them up. That's just the way the game works.

[Habitom]

It's a lot, but I think the rumour was that deal was only on the table if Edmonton didn't take Yakupov with the first pick. It makes a little more sense when you consider that.

If that is true, then it is reasonable to assume CBJ said no because they would have taken Yakupov. Would MB have taken Yakupov or made the deal and still gotten Gally? Would you?

[roy_133]

If that is true, then it is reasonable to assume CBJ said no because they would have taken Yakupov. Would MB have taken Yakupov or made the deal and still gotten Gally? Would you?

Columbus beat writer said they weren't taking Yakupov if he fell past Edmonton, they coveted Murray. Either way, I feel like this deal sounds far more valuable than it is, there's value in the 2nd and even the 3rd to a lesser extent but after that, it's not that valuable and at the top of the draft, positions are usually much more defined to teams (teams LOVE 1-2 guys usually that they really want).

It's the narrative that has people stunned at the offer, it sounds like a lot. If people heard Islanders offered their 2nd and 3rd to swap picks, people wouldn't say much but they throw in a bunch of late picks with really low % of success and it's a big thing. I actually think it was pretty smart, if they liked a player that much.

[Habitom]

Columbus beat writer said they weren't taking Yakupov if he fell past Edmonton, they coveted Murray. Either way, I feel like this deal sounds far more valuable than it is, there's value in the 2nd and even the 3rd to a lesser extent but after that, it's not that valuable and at the top of the draft, positions are usually much more defined to teams (teams LOVE 1-2 guys usually that they really want).

It's the narrative that has people stunned at the offer, it sounds like a lot. If people heard Islanders offered their 2nd and 3rd to swap picks, people wouldn't say much but they throw in a bunch of late picks with really low % of success and it's a big thing. I actually think it was pretty smart, if they liked a player that much.

I'm not of the opinion Murray is the best D-man 5 years down the road but is the closest to NHL ready, which I guess CBJ needs. I wouldn't degrade those picks though. After-all general concensis is we got 4 potential Ist rounders with a !st, two 2nds and a 3rd, so why not Columbus? After all we have gotten S. Kostytsin at 200. Grabovski at 150, Streit at 262 & Halak at 271 just to name some of our late round picks. Sure puts pressure on Murray.

[roy_133]

I'm not of the opinion Murray is the best D-man 5 years down the road but is the closest to NHL ready, which I guess CBJ needs. I wouldn't degrade those picks though. After-all general concensis is we got 4 potential Ist rounders with a !st, two 2nds and a 3rd, so why not Columbus? After all we have gotten S. Kostytsin at 200. Grabovski at 150, Streit at 262 & Halak at 271 just to name some of our late round picks. Sure puts pressure on Murray.

Well you may not feel that way about Murray, (I don't either) but if Columbus does than they have to decide that value of that. The Islanders weren't offering 2 2nds though and I said that the 2nd and 3rd definitely have value, but I also said people wouldn't have the same reaction if Columbus said no to a 2nd + 3rd for a swap of picks, it's the narrative of it being the whole draft that catches people eye when really, the VAST meat of the value is the 2nd and 3rd rounder. I also never said it's impossible to find players later in the draft, just that the success rate is surprisingly low, cherry picking a handful of examples (4 guys in 9 years) doesn't change the overall odds. There's some value in late picks, just less than people seem to acknowledge.

[DA_Champion]

Well you may not feel that way about Murray, (I don't either) but if Columbus does than they have to decide that value of that. The Islanders weren't offering 2 2nds though and I said that the 2nd and 3rd definitely have value, but I also said people wouldn't have the same reaction if Columbus said no to a 2nd + 3rd for a swap of picks, it's the narrative of it being the whole draft that catches people eye when really, the VAST meat of the value is the 2nd and 3rd rounder. I also never said it's impossible to find players later in the draft, just that the success rate is surprisingly low, cherry picking a handful of examples (4 guys in 9 years) doesn't change the overall odds. There's some value in late picks, just less than people seem to acknowledge.

Further, your odds of finding a "diamond in the rough" don't double if you have twice as many draft picks, because you don't have twice as many roster spots in your farm system and in your 50 player contract limit. You'll likely end up making mistakes two or three years down the line when you decide who gets an ELC and who doesn't, and thus the value is much less than doubling your draft picks, it might be a 50% increase or so.

[BigTed3]

Further, your odds of finding a "diamond in the rough" don't double if you have twice as many draft picks, because you don't have twice as many roster spots in your farm system and in your 50 player contract limit. You'll likely end up making mistakes two or three years down the line when you decide who gets an ELC and who doesn't, and thus the value is much less than doubling your draft picks, it might be a 50% increase or so.

Good point. And even if Columbus did find a way to put all those picks into their system, we'd estimate that a 2nd-rounder has about a 25% chance of becoming a regular in the NHL, a 3rd rounder 15-20%, a 4th 5-10%, and the others all under 5%... so to move up those two spots, the Isles would have been giving Clb about a 65-70% chance of finding a 2nd NHL-quality player in the bunch. It's a bit of an off-the-wall idea, but in reality, if the Isles felt the difference between #2 and reinhart (who they chose at #4) was that great, then it makes sense. They'd have been giving up much less than one would to sign a high-end rfa to an offer sheet.

[BigTed3]

Just wanted to add something I find interesting about this year's draft results... there's been a lot of talk about Justin Schultz being available as a ufa and it's been noted that Danny kristo could follow the same pattern and declare himself a ufa after the upcoming season. We don't have too many good forward prospects at his stage of development, so this would be a reasonable loss to us, and there are those who believe kristo could have made the jump to the NHL within the next year if he had started the season in Hamilton.

However, what I think is interesting to recall is that kristo, while he was our first choice in 2008, was nevertheless a 2nd-round pick, a guy who was drafted at #56 and who was ranked as a second-rounder by central scouting going into the draft. If you look at this year's draft, we came out with 3 guys drafted at positions ahead of where we chose kristo and a 4th who was ranked by many as a potential 1st round pick in the third round. I won't put a lot of stock in the lower-round selections we made just yet, even though we've heard about all their upsides since they were selected. But to come out with 4 guys who could have gone in the first round or early second gives us a very good shot at having 2-3 solid NHLers from this draft. Given how bare the cupboards were, as evidenced by the fact we're desperately waiting for a 56th overall pick four years ago to turn pro, this was an excellent job of re-stocking the pipeline.

[11CaptainKoivu11]

I just listened to TT's interview after the draft and he said they wanted to draft a goalie. I think they wanted to draft Subban and that would be the reason for trying to trade up.

Oh well, at least we got a solid group of prospects from this draft and maybe we can use one of our 2nd round picks on a goalie next year if someone good is available.

I definitely doubt it was Subban, especially with how much they loved Collberg and how surprised they were he slid like that. If anything, they probably wanted a goalie anywhere from round 3 (at the earliest) to 6 and I'd have to guess on the later end of that.

It's risky to draft any goalie in the first 60 picks and with the luxury of having a superstar not even in his prime, we can afford to try and take some chances on guys in the lower rounds, hope we eventually hit on a Rinne or something but otherwise just keep our system stocked with a few goalies at a time. Starter position is taken care of and decent backups are going for real cheap right now.

Yeah, I think the fact is we wanted Colberg at 33, and the only other decent goalie in my opinion left in the 2nd round was already gone anyway (Dansk). I mean if Subban had fallen way down (wasn't going to happen) to the 51st or 64th we would have taken him. There just wasn't a lot of goalie prospects that warranted us using a pick on them in the 2nd or 3rd round.

However next year is a different year, I think we are well loaded up on forwards, maybe we could use another D, but I think our 1st priority, especially if we pick later in the rounds next year, is to get a goalie. And my early personal research is telling my 2013 will be a strong year for goaltenders.