#76 Pernell Karl Subban 2013-2014

[ColRouleBleu]

Pernell Karl Subban #76



__ Stats __.__ Splits __.__ Game Log __.__ Notes __.__ Videos __

Archive 2012-2013
Position: Defenseman Shoots: Right
Birth Place: Toronto, ON, CAN
Birth Date: 13-May-1989 Age: 24
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 216
Drafted by: Montreal Draft Year: 2007 Round 2(43 overall)


@PKSubban1

[East_Coast_Juggalo_13]

I cannot wait to see what PK does for an encore. MTL might be seeing Markov's final season as a Hab due to this guy's contract in 2014.

[jennifer_rocket]

Norris trophy winner. Hopefully he wins another one this season!

[Manatee-X]

It's kind of a fluff piece, but still a nice article:

http://www.tsn.ca/montreal/blogs/habs_report/?id=427956

[weepingminotaur]

Still irks me to see nimrods on TSN's site talking about how he only plays offense. Big Lie principle at work among the sheep. For me, the defensive part of Subban's game is as much a joy to watch as the offensive part.

[jedimaas]

Still irks me to see nimrods on TSN's site talking about how he only plays offense. Big Lie principle at work among the sheep. For me, the defensive part of Subban's game is as much a joy to watch as the offensive part.

Its no surprise, really. Most of these guys watch only their team (leafs, bruins, whomever) and then when they see a stat like PK's huge offensive numbers they assume he's a letang or karlsson.

Even those comparisons by me are unfair though, because both of those players can play good defense as they historically have shown. Unlike those two though, PK is the only one of the 3 whose coach actually puts him in defensive situations.

Time will tell if he starts getting league-wide recognition for his complete game. I dont see why he wont, but you never know. He's in many ways like Chris Chelios - and how sweet it is to have a guy like that on our roster once again.

[kinot-1]

Its no surprise, really. Most of these guys watch only their team (leafs, bruins, whomever) and then when they see a stat like PK's huge offensive numbers they assume he's a letang or karlsson.

Even those comparisons by me are unfair though, because both of those players can play good defense as they historically have shown. Unlike those two though, PK is the only one of the 3 whose coach actually puts him in defensive situations.

Time will tell if he starts getting league-wide recognition for his complete game. I dont see why he wont, but you never know. He's in many ways like Chris Chelios - and how sweet it is to have a guy like that on our roster once again.

At least this year, we will be playing the western conference as well, and more media will see what he can do in both ends of the ice.

[jedimaas]

At least this year, we will be playing the western conference as well, and more media will see what he can do in both ends of the ice.

Indeed, although I think the media actually has seen his value for some time - after all, its the writer's association who gave him the norris...

[kinot-1]

Indeed, although I think the media actually has seen his value for some time - after all, its the writer's association who gave him the norris...

That's what I mean't, jed.

[FirstStar]

Well, in a TSN article concerning our Team Canada line up and guess who's name was mentioned?

That's right, PK Subban. According to the article PK and Price are strongly considered to represent Canada in Sochi.

[KeepsItReal]

Well, in a TSN article concerning our Team Canada line up and guess who's name was mentioned?

That's right, PK Subban. According to the article PK and Price are strongly considered to represent Canada in Sochi.

I think both of them are locks to be there personally.

[FirstStar]

I think both of them are locks to be there personally.

I think they may have someone else in mind if Price struggles again this coming season, but for now yes, I think they're locks.

Canada tenders, seems like they're going with Lou (no surprise there), Price and Crawford. Glad to see that MAF is no longer considered one of team Canada's tender. I think the 2013 post season clinched his fate.

[BeanCountingHab]

I was just thinking, depending on how he's used on the Olympic squad (and assuming he makes it), this could be the moment where the masses realize just how incredibly good he is. I mean obviously the Norris helps, but I would still say the average hockey fan (or hockey media person for that matter) doesn't realize he's much more than an offensive defenseman yet. I know Doughty's progression up the depth charts during the 2010 Olympics really made me realize he was at a different level than I thought.

[Manatee-X]

I was just thinking, depending on how he's used on the Olympic squad (and assuming he makes it), this could be the moment where the masses realize just how incredibly good he is. I mean obviously the Norris helps, but I would still say the average hockey fan (or hockey media person for that matter) doesn't realize he's much more than an offensive defenseman yet. I know Doughty's progression up the depth charts during the 2010 Olympics really made me realize he was at a different level than I thought.

That's true, BCH. That's still the impression I get from anyone who's either not a huge hockey fan or is a fan of another team: Subban is a great offensive player but he's a liability on defence who takes too many chances. I don't think it's generally known that he's as good as he is, even after the Norris.

If nothing else, it would just be a lot of fun to watch him shine on the world stage. When's the last time that we've had someone on the Habs playing for team Canada in a major tournament like this?

[FirstStar]

That's true, BCH. That's still the impression I get from anyone who's either not a huge hockey fan or is a fan of another team: Subban is a great offensive player but he's a liability on defence who takes too many chances. I don't think it's generally known that he's as good as he is, even after the Norris.

If nothing else, it would just be a lot of fun to watch him shine on the world stage. When's the last time that we've had someone on the Habs playing for team Canada in a major tournament like this?

I agree with that statement when you look at PK's first few years in the NHL. Maybe i wouldn't go as far to call him a liability, he did cost us some goals at the beginning, but has learned from his mistakes.

Let the rest of the league continue to think that way, when he shuts them down next season it'll be fun to see the looks on their faces.

Also, it looks like we'll have 2 habs representing team Canada in Sochi, just hope carey (if he makes it), gets to play. I just hope babcock won't be afraid to pull Lou and put in Carey if the pressure gets to lou. If babcock doesn't adjust, lou could be our downfall. If it wasn't for Iggy and Sid, we alsmost lost our gold medal in the final minute due to a bad goal from lou.

[KeepsItReal]

I agree with that statement when you look at PK's first few years in the NHL. Maybe i wouldn't go as far to call him a liability, he did cost us some goals at the beginning, but has learned from his mistakes.

Let the rest of the league continue to think that way, when he shuts them down next season it'll be fun to see the looks on their faces.

Also, it looks like we'll have 2 habs representing team Canada in Sochi, just hope carey (if he makes it), gets to play. I just hope babcock won't be afraid to pull Lou and put in Carey if the pressure gets to lou. If babcock doesn't adjust, lou could be our downfall. If it wasn't for Iggy and Sid, we alsmost lost our gold medal in the final minute due to a bad goal from lou.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsYz6ooBwfg

Two UFA guys in front of Luongo, not a Canadian player between them...not really sure how that's a bad goal on Luo...

Also, in terms of him being afraid to pull Luongo and put in Carey (or Corey)...considering he wasn't afraid to do it in 2010 I don't know why this time around it would be any different.

The thing I like about PK is the way he has improved his game...his defensive lapses are far less often than they were before and last year after back to back years of leading hte league in minor penalties he cut down on his penalties by a fair amount.

I don't think we'll ever need to worry about complacency with PK...he's going to be one of those guys who is constantly improving his game.

[FirstStar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsYz6ooBwfg

Two UFA guys in front of Luongo, not a Canadian player between them...not really sure how that's a bad goal on Luo...

Also, in terms of him being afraid to pull Luongo and put in Carey (or Corey)...considering he wasn't afraid to do it in 2010 I don't know why this time around it would be any different.

The thing I like about PK is the way he has improved his game...his defensive lapses are far less often than they were before and last year after back to back years of leading hte league in minor penalties he cut down on his penalties by a fair amount.

I don't think we'll ever need to worry about complacency with PK...he's going to be one of those guys who is constantly improving his game.

Lou has a history of dropping the ball in high pressure situations. Regardless of who was in front, it's the Olympics, fighting for gold, if there was ever a time for lou to stand on his head, it was then and as i predicted in the final minutes, USA tied the game. Thankfully for all Canucks, we had Sid "clutch" Crosby to score the OT winner.

As for pulling Lou for Carey or Corey, both Corey and Carey are newbies to team Canada. And we all know how Team Canada brass likes to stick with what/who they know. If Brodeur was Lou's back up, i think the decision would be much easier since Marty has so much international experience.

Even if Lou struggles, they may rather keep Lou (who has experience internationally, moreso Olympics) than hand over the tending duties to young kids with little to no international experience.

[Rocket-1]

Norris trophy winner. Hopefully he wins another one this season!

The scary part is... he has a pretty got shot at going back to back if he stays healthy, that contract is just going to be ridiculous after lol. 8 per min

[kinot-1]

The scary part is... he has a pretty got shot at going back to back if he stays healthy, that contract is just going to be ridiculous after lol. 8 per min

His main competition is Karlsonn

[HabsRuleForever]

The scary part is... he has a pretty got shot at going back to back if he stays healthy, that contract is just going to be ridiculous after lol. 8 per min

Def in the 7-8 range after another great season next year.

[KeepsItReal]

One of the most intensely debated moves in the entire NHL last season was Marc Bergevin and the Montreal Canadiens signing P.K. Subban to a two-year $2.875M cap hit deal instead of a long term deal that could provide savings later. It's been written about on Puck Daddy, Backhand Shelf, Driving Play, and even a few non-Habs team blogs that took interest in it.

There are differing opinions as always, but the consensus seems to be that the Canadiens made a serious mistake not signing Subban to a longer deal. Not only was he going to have a higher cap hit on his next deal anyway, but winning the Norris Trophy usually comes with a pay raise.

In order to figure out whether or not signing Subban to a bridge contract was smart, we're going to have to use a fair set of assumptions. Chief among these is that the NHL will continue to see the same average growth that they've had since the previous lockout, and the ensuing effect that will have on the salary cap.

The second major assumption is that Erik Karlsson's contract is Subban's closest comparable (signed last year days before winning the Norris, one year younger). Because of that, we're going to use Karlsson's contract as the basis of Subban's contract as far as structure goes.

Next, we'll be looking at the two most commonly rumoured contracts that Subban's camp was after, a five-year deal worth $25M, and a six-year deal with $36M. The reason we're going to look at those contracts specifically is because we don't live in fantasy land. Lots of fans wanted to sign Subban to an eight-year contract worth $5M a year, and I'd like to own an tiger that obeys my every command and doesn't smell bad, but this isn't a fairy tale.

Methodology

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm going to ignore the fact that a five-year contract would have bought only one UFA year for the Canadiens and was therefore never on the table in the first place, and instead we're going to measure Subban's cap hit impact over the ten years of his current bridge contract and an eight-year extension using the percentage of the (estimated) cap that his contract would eat up on average over each deal.

The salary cap

What will the salary cap look like over the next few years? Over the previous CBA it went up on average by 8.9% per year, which would give us the following breakdown starting with last year's inflated cap:

Year Estimated salary cap 2012-13 $70.2M 2013-14 $64.3M 2014-15 $70.0M 2015-16 $76.2M 2016-17 $83.0M 2017-18 $90.3M 2018-19 $98.3M 2019-20 $107.0M 2020-21 $116.5M 2021-22 $126.8M

What will Subban's contract extension look like?

It's always a bit of a problem trying to calculate what a contract might look like, but I think we can get a good general idea using Erik Karlsson's contract from last year since the salary cap is almost the exact same and the players are in essentially the same situation as well.

Karlsson is paid an average of $6M per year on his remaining four restricted free agent years, $7M for his first two unrestricted years, and $7.5M in his last one. Considering a slightly lower salary cap and that Subban will be signing after winning the Norris instead of just before, I think it's fair to say that he'll be getting more money than Karlsson in each year, but not absurdly more.

It's been estimated that a major award win is worth about $1M extra per year in salary for UFA years, so we'll half that for his RFA years. For the sake of being liberal with estimates on the high side, we'll say that Subban gets a raise in his eight-year extension every two seasons, similar to what Karlsson got. This means his contract structure looks like this:

Year Status Salary 2014-15 RFA $6.5M 2015-16 RFA $6.5M 2016-17 UFA $8M 2017-18 UFA $8M 2018-19 UFA $8.5M 2019-20 UFA $8.5M 2020-21 UFA $9M 2021-22 UFA $9M Annual Average - $8M

$8M per year is likely on the high side for what most Canadiens fans want to see Subban get paid on his next contract (it will make him the highest paid defenseman in the NHL), but I think that's around where it will be. But how does this compare to the other floated deals? Well, for that, we have to figure out what he would be paid on his next deal in both situations; one for five years and one for four. That's easy enough though; all you have to do is multiply the percentage of the cap Subban's salary takes up in the remaining years of that deal by the projected cap in the year he's signing his new deal. What we come up with is the following three scenarios over the 10 years Bergevin could sign Subban for.

The nitty gritty Year Scenario 1 cap hit Scenario 2 cap hit Scenario 3 cap hit 2012-13 $2.875M $5M $6M 2013-14 $2.875M $5M $6M 2014-15 $8M $5M $6M 2015-16 $8M $5M $6M 2016-17 $8M $5M $6M 2017-18 $8M $11.4 $6M 2018-19 $8M $11.4 $12.5 2019-20 $8M $11.4 $12.5 2020-21 $8M $11.4 $12.5 2021-22 $8M $11.4 $12.5 Average % of annual cap space 7.78% 8.81% 9.3%

As you can see, the results are pretty staggering. Bergevin was dealt a serious blow when the cap crunch was announced for 2013-14, and he had to form his team around the incoming six million dollar drop in cap space. What he ended up doing was creating a scenario where he doesn't just get Subban at a severe discount for two years, he's likely to get better value over the next decade, carrying Subban to the age of 33.

Even more surprising is that even if Bergevin isn't as good of a negotiator over the next year and Subban's annual average isn't $8M, but $9M over the course of eight years, the average percentage of annual cap space he would take up would be 8.64%, still lower than the other two situations, and that's without adjusting the higher salaries for those UFA years.

By taking advantage of two UFA years over the course of Subban's contract that covers his prime years, Bergevin may have made a genius stroke.

And just for the record, I was vehemently against the bridge contract. This isn't an "I told you so", it's an "I was wrong".

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/31/4573380/was-marc-bergevin-right-to-sign-p-k-subban-to-a-bridge-deal

[maddienmike]

You say that most pople didn't agree with the bridge contract,but I was watching That's hockey, yesterday,they were talking about Petroangelo's contract,and saying he should take a bridge contract like PK's.The blues GM was saying the RP will get his payday and is trying to do what MB did.

I was never against the bridge contract,it made sense to me,as we can lock him up for more of his UFA years after,the cap hit will go up again,to me that is a forgone conclusion,so it made sense.

Anyway there is no tomorrow so you have to look after today,that always makes sense to me,if it meant getting PK back on the ice,it was a good deal.I was pretty sure PK couldn't stay away,like he said it was killing him to watch the team on TV.MB certainly did the right thing.

GO PK GO :wub:

[Rocket-1]

And just for the record, I was vehemently against the bridge contract.

If we would've signed PK to what he wanted, we would've been over the cap for last season and pretty much exactly on the cap for this upcoming season (or maybe even a little over it who knows).

When you take that into consideration, Bergevin did exactly the right thing.

[MkGee]

i was thinking pk would get 7.5 mil a year around that ballpark and at with his talent and ceiling that's not a problem if we have him around until he's 33.

[dwdemonwolf]

The bridge contract allows us to buy up more of his UFA years.