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2013-2014 Magic Number (MN)


Manatee-X

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Yup! Any points the Capitals lose gives us bonuses, and any point we win obviously takes us down as well. So we clinch tomorrow 1) if we win, 2) if the caps lose in regulation or 3)if both us and the Caps lose in OT

Well my work here is done. :P

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Actually it's worth noting that it's a 4-point game in the MN Home Ice count, since TB is our only competitors in that regards.

It drops 4 if we win in regulation.

3 if we win in extra time.

1 if we lose in extra time.

0 if we lose in regulation.

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Well my work here is done. :P

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Actually it's worth noting that it's a 4-point game in the MN Home Ice count, since TB is our only competitors in that regards.

It drops 4 if we win in regulation.

3 if we win in extra time.

1 if we lose in extra time.

0 if we lose in regulation.

iz6xa8.jpg

And unless I'm mistaken our MN Home Ice count is currently 12, correct?

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And unless I'm mistaken our MN Home Ice count is currently 12, correct?

It's a tough one to figure out... if we win out, we could still do so by winning all the games in shoot-outs. In that situation, if TB won its games in regulation, they would pass us in the ROW category. However, because of the head-to-head with TB tonight, if we do get 2 points tonight, TB automatically loses at least one point in the MN standings by virtue of their loss. So technically, if we win all 12 points of our own, we clinch home ice. But if we lose in OT tonight, the MN would still be 12 even though we've gained a point. It'll all become clear after the game tonight, following the MN adjustments that FL has written out. But yes, technically, you are correct... it's just a different way of looking at things.

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It's a tough one to figure out... if we win out, we could still do so by winning all the games in shoot-outs. In that situation, if TB won its games in regulation, they would pass us in the ROW category. However, because of the head-to-head with TB tonight, if we do get 2 points tonight, TB automatically loses at least one point in the MN standings by virtue of their loss. So technically, if we win all 12 points of our own, we clinch home ice. But if we lose in OT tonight, the MN would still be 12 even though we've gained a point. It'll all become clear after the game tonight, following the MN adjustments that FL has written out. But yes, technically, you are correct... it's just a different way of looking at things.

Dang you, Ted. If you're not going to do a Game Day Thread, you might just have to take over this whole MN thing, too! :D:lol:

My math doesn't take the future into account so the Home Ice number still reads 13.

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CLINCHED

multifworks2.gif

Yeppers! I was so caught up in the Home Ice race that I forgot about the Washington game.

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MN is 0.

MN Home Ice is 13.

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Take a drink and celebrate, all. It's been a blast. There were some low moments but the Team overcame adversity and avoided all poorly driven 18-wheelers.

This Is Not An April Fools Prank.

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Can't thank you enough for all the fine work you've done in here this year FL. Let's do it again next year. :D

It's only fun when the number hits 0, so by all means: let's do it again next year. :lol:B):P

I can't take any credit for it, though. It was the Team on the ice that got the job done and made the math work.

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Unfortunately we're going to the dance on a loss and the Lightning clinched as well. They also take the advantage in the race for home ice.

It's a bittersweet evening.

Leafs won, too, so everyone's happy for a bit, right? :rolleyes:

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Guest habs1952

Yeppers! I was so caught up in the Home Ice race that I forgot about the Washington game.

...

MN is 0.

MN Home Ice is 13.

...

Take a drink and celebrate, all. It's been a blast. There were some low moments but the Team overcame adversity and avoided all poorly driven 18-wheelers.

This Is Not An April Fools Prank.

Awesome job FL!

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I really only get interested in calculating clinching and playoff spots with about 4-6 weeks to go in the season. You do great work, FL, to maintain this for the entire year and keep everything so accurate. Great job!

Happy to see the Habs in the dance, but as I said in the GDT, huge blown opportunity to put a stranglehold on home ice last night and we came up empty.

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Hey gang, thanks for all the kind words. In all honesty, I consider it a privilege to be able to contribute to this aspect of the Forum. It was choc's great work that brought me to this site however many years ago it and I'm only trying to carry the torch (as it were) best I can.

I'm totally game for next season but if anyone wants to take the reins and breathe some new life into things, I'm not so proud as to not step aside for fresh blood. Or if nobody wants to but anyone has ideas to make things better, that works too.

The new MN, I guess, is 16. :D

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That said, the MN Home Ice is still 13.

Calgary can play spoilers tonight if they can hand the Lightning a loss. Standard 2-1-0 Bonus Points are available.

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Just waiting for the game to end. Maybe I'm jumping the gun. Had to get out of the GDT because there's so much to respond to. Gotta sleep tonight and work early tomorrow.

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Habs MN Home Ice is 9.



G'night all.

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Might be worth noting that the Lightning's 'game in hand' after tonight will be played Tuesday against Toronto.



Might be worth noting that the Lightning's 'game in hand' after tonight will be played Tuesday against Toronto.

Habs MN Home Ice is 9.

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I feel bad because I've neglected the full table. I forgot that we were counting down towards Toronto golf.

I have to work tomorrow. I'll give you something for Sunday.

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To catch us, Columbus would have to run the table 5-0 and we'd have to go 0-4, which is quite unlikely. So we're pretty much guaranteed to not play Boston in the 1st round now. To pass us, Det needs to go at least 4-1 or 3-0-2 in their last 5. If we win tomorrow night, we are locked into the 2-3 game.

According to sportsclubstats, we now have a 98.8% chance of playing TB in the first round, with small odds of it being Det or Pit instead. We have a 61% chance of finishing 2nd. If we can get to 100 points, it puts our odds over 50%, whereas 99 points puts us at 50% or less chance of getting home ice. So the goal needs to be to grab at least 5 points in the last 4 games.

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Biggest of the games remaining goes tonight... as I said, a win tonight in any form (including a shootout) guarantees Det can't catch us and so locks us into that 2-3 game. If we lose to Det in regulation, however, we sit 5 points ahead of them and the Wings' remaining games are against two bottom-feeders (Buf and Car), a team that is already locked into its playoff position (Pit), and a team that will likely be locked into its position by the time they face them (Stl). Suffice it to say that the best way to not have to let this come down to the wire is to beat Det tonight and end any hope of their catching us.

Re-assessing Tampa's remaining games, they have Dal, Tor, Phi, and Clb at home and Was on the road. The Caps are possibly going to be done by the time that game comes around, but the other 4 are happily against contenders. If we guess Tampa squeezes two points from an unmotivated Washington team and gets 5 of 8 from the other 4 games, it would put them at 100 total on the season. We would own the tie-break in all likelihood, so we'd need to squeeze 5 points out of our remaining 4 games to grab home ice. A win against Det goes a long way towards that, or else it might come down to having to beat a NYR team battling for home ice themselves.

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