#81 Lars Eller 2014-2015

[ColRouleBleu]

Lars Eller #81

Archive 2013-2014

[jedimaas]

Still hoping they come to a deal before Arbitration but after the mess that was last season, I wont be surprised if they dont. Either way, Id really like Larry signed long-term although I think there's a good chance he signs one more bridge deal before that happens.

[BigTed3]

Still hoping they come to a deal before Arbitration but after the mess that was last season, I wont be surprised if they dont. Either way, Id really like Larry signed long-term although I think there's a good chance he signs one more bridge deal before that happens.

We don't have a lot to play with before he's a UFA though. Really, we should be aiming for a 5- or 6-year deal now. I'd take my chances on Eller, he's got all the tools to be a very good 2nd-line center, giving us something like Ryan Kesler or Mike Richards might give. He's got a bit of a way to go before he gets the offensive output up, but in given how limited his chances have been here, I think the potential's still there to grow.

[Graeme-1]

We don't have a lot to play with before he's a UFA though. Really, we should be aiming for a 5- or 6-year deal now. I'd take my chances on Eller, he's got all the tools to be a very good 2nd-line center, giving us something like Ryan Kesler or Mike Richards might give. He's got a bit of a way to go before he gets the offensive output up, but in given how limited his chances have been here, I think the potential's still there to grow.

I agree, but I think the issue is last year raised more questions than answers so coming up with a fair value is going to be next to impossible: I can't see the Habs giving Eller top-six money (5+ million) and I can't see Eller accepting third-line money. In this case, I don't see a 1 year bridge as a bad thing just to help answer some questions after last season.

[jedimaas]

I agree with both Ted & Graeme. I think a 1 year arbitrator's decision may be where we're headed, although I would personally love (and not be afraid of) a nice cap-friendly deal of 5 or even more years. the absolute worst he'll ever be is a 3rd liner and he may well yet be a 2nd, so if we gave him a long term deal with money somewhere in between, Id be just fine with that...although Im sure Lars' agent is pushing for more.

[RicochetII]

I think Eller's deal has to be at least 2 years. The main reason being our glut of RFA's hitting next season.

Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Tinordi, Beaulieu, is too much as it is. Even on bridge deals, we're talking $10-15M, depending on how they perform this season. We have no significant salary coming off the books next season, so we'll be dependent on what is remaining after Eller and Subban are signed, in addition to the amount the cap rises next season.

We want Eller to have a breakout year this season, but we don't want him to be due for a huge raise next July. We will be in a comfortable situation with $20M+ coming off the payroll, and that includes Plekanec, who Eller may be more able to replace at that point in time.

[jedimaas]

I think Eller's deal has to be at least 2 years. The main reason being our glut of RFA's hitting next season.

Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Tinordi, Beaulieu, is too much as it is. Even on bridge deals, we're talking $10-15M, depending on how they perform this season. We have no significant salary coming off the books next season, so we'll be dependent on what is remaining after Eller and Subban are signed, in addition to the amount the cap rises next season.

We want Eller to have a breakout year this season, but we don't want him to be due for a huge raise next July. We will be in a comfortable situation with $20M+ coming off the payroll, and that includes Plekanec, who Eller may be more able to replace at that point in time.

I agree with what you're saying - BUT - if he signs a 1 year deal, he's still RFA next summer. If he signs a 2 year deal I am pretty sure he's UFA after that one is up...

[habsisme]

I agree with what you're saying - BUT - if he signs a 1 year deal, he's still RFA next summer. If he signs a 2 year deal I am pretty sure he's UFA after that one is up...

yes, he will be a UFA in 2 years

I think Eller's deal has to be at least 2 years. The main reason being our glut of RFA's hitting next season.

Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Tinordi, Beaulieu, is too much as it is. Even on bridge deals, we're talking $10-15M, depending on how they perform this season. We have no significant salary coming off the books next season, so we'll be dependent on what is remaining after Eller and Subban are signed, in addition to the amount the cap rises next season.

We want Eller to have a breakout year this season, but we don't want him to be due for a huge raise next July. We will be in a comfortable situation with $20M+ coming off the payroll, and that includes Plekanec, who Eller may be more able to replace at that point in time.

This is one of the reasons I didn't like the PA trade. Although, in all likelihood you are looking closer to 10 million, we should have some space this season, and it should go up substantially next year. We should be okay to sign everyone.

[RicochetII]

I agree with what you're saying - BUT - if he signs a 1 year deal, he's still RFA next summer. If he signs a 2 year deal I am pretty sure he's UFA after that one is up...

I know there is a risk there, but I would also be in negotiations with Eller and Plekanec during the season for an extension. Anyone who didn't re-sign prior to the deadline would be traded. I wouldn't risk losing either for nothing.

It's possible a 1 year deal works and we're still able to re-sign everyone comfortably, but if a couple of players have the kind of season we would like them to have, they could increase their value significantly.

[BigTed3]

Even though I think Eller is a way better player than Desharnais, the fact is that it would be pretty hard for Eller to argue he's more deserving of the deal DD signed coming off a 60-point season. DD signed for 4 years at 3.5M per season and ate up some UFA years doing it. I think we could make a reasonable argument for something like this with Eller:

2014-15: 3M

2015-16: 3M

2016-17 3.75M

2017-18: 3.75M

2018-19: 4M

2019-20: 4.5M

That's 22M over 6 years, for a cap hit of 3.67M. It pays him like a low-caliber 2nd-line player, which is more than fair for what he's produced thus far but gives us a shot at having a good two-way player on a reasonable cap hit through his prime years. Unless Eller thinks he's going to jump the depth chart and establish higher value in the next two seasons, he's probably better off accepting a guaranteed long-term deal like this from us, and I think from our end that he's worth a risk.

[habsisme]

Even though I think Eller is a way better player than Desharnais, the fact is that it would be pretty hard for Eller to argue he's more deserving of the deal DD signed coming off a 60-point season. DD signed for 4 years at 3.5M per season and ate up some UFA years doing it. I think we could make a reasonable argument for something like this with Eller:

2014-15: 3M

2015-16: 3M

2016-17 3.75M

2017-18: 3.75M

2018-19: 4M

2019-20: 4.5M

That's 22M over 6 years, for a cap hit of 3.67M. It pays him like a low-caliber 2nd-line player, which is more than fair for what he's produced thus far but gives us a shot at having a good two-way player on a reasonable cap hit through his prime years. Unless Eller thinks he's going to jump the depth chart and establish higher value in the next two seasons, he's probably better off accepting a guaranteed long-term deal like this from us, and I think from our end that he's worth a risk.

I would make such a deal, but I don't think Eller would. If he does, I'd do it in a heart beat, but I think he's going to want an opportunity first

[BigTed3]

I would make such a deal, but I don't think Eller would. If he does, I'd do it in a heart beat, but I think he's going to want an opportunity first

If you're Eller, you're stuck here while you're an RFA (next two years). After that, there's a good chance he gets a shot to move up as Plekanec is phased out. He has the chance here to move up in the line-up and displace DD if he plays well too.

[Graeme-1]

I think Eller's deal has to be at least 2 years. The main reason being our glut of RFA's hitting next season.

Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Bournival, Tinordi, Beaulieu, is too much as it is. Even on bridge deals, we're talking $10-15M, depending on how they perform this season. We have no significant salary coming off the books next season, so we'll be dependent on what is remaining after Eller and Subban are signed, in addition to the amount the cap rises next season.

We want Eller to have a breakout year this season, but we don't want him to be due for a huge raise next July. We will be in a comfortable situation with $20M+ coming off the payroll, and that includes Plekanec, who Eller may be more able to replace at that point in time.

I don't really think the number of RFAs affect how long we'd want Eller's deal to be for: whether he's an RFA or signed next summer, we need to work around his salary

I also don't think you'll see huge raises among those players. Both Gally's should get 2-3 million more (Galchenyk could break out of course and earn mre), at this point both dmen haven't even earned a full-time roster spot and dmen rarely have a huge breakout season as a youngster, I don't see Bournival doing enough to justify much of a raise, etc.

Even though I think Eller is a way better player than Desharnais, the fact is that it would be pretty hard for Eller to argue he's more deserving of the deal DD signed coming off a 60-point season.

If you can see it, I can see it, pretty much everyone on this board can see it: why can't his agent argue it? Presumably people who evaluate NHL talent aren't going to just look at the stat sheet.

DD signed for 4 years at 3.5M per season and ate up some UFA years doing it. I think we could make a reasonable argument for something like this with Eller:

2014-15: 3M

2015-16: 3M

2016-17 3.75M

2017-18: 3.75M

2018-19: 4M

2019-20: 4.5M

I'd sign that deal in a heartbeat, but that's because Eller would be crazy to.

[BeanCountingHab]

One interesting thing I didn't realize is that the arbitrator uses (and can only use) statistics from NHL.com when coming up with an arbitration figure. That won't be super beneficial to Eller.

[jedimaas]

Even though I think Eller is a way better player than Desharnais, the fact is that it would be pretty hard for Eller to argue he's more deserving of the deal DD signed coming off a 60-point season. DD signed for 4 years at 3.5M per season and ate up some UFA years doing it. I think we could make a reasonable argument for something like this with Eller:

Ive been thinking they may use DD as the benchmark for Eller's deal. I think its ideal because while, like you, i think Eller is the 'complete player' you cant argue with DD's stats...sheltered ice time or not, he's put up points pretty consistently.

One would think that Lars would go for that dollar amount - and I would imagine the habs would too - but I suspect that term is the real issue. Im sure managment would be happy ot sign him to DD money for 5-8 years but Lars probably wants a short term with that sort of money, or else more money for long term.

Its definitely not the easiest contract to negotiate. Not only his own play but his odd usage makes it very difficult. Not to mention the absolutely "dominant" stretches (there weres times early last year where he looked like a bonefide #1) and his falling of the charts (he was scratched one night to let George Parros into the lineup. Think about that for a second: George Parros).

I dunno what they do. I still think its probably 50/50 it goes to arbitration.

[Manatee-X]

One interesting thing I didn't realize is that the arbitrator uses (and can only use) statistics from NHL.com when coming up with an arbitration figure. That won't be super beneficial to Eller.

Oh wow, that is interesting. Does that mean that they can't use context at all? For example, as a fan you could look at Eller and say that any time that he's been given top line wingers he's played like a top line centre - it's just that for most of his time he hasn't had top line wingers. If all the arbitrator can go on, though, is points/60 minutes and other similar stats then Eller is not going to come out looking great.

I wonder, though, if that will dissuade Eller's camp from going to arbitration or if it won't make much of a difference. If we work under the assumption that the Canadiens are offering a long term deal for mid level salary, Eller's camp still might see it as better for him to take a short arbitration deal at a low salary level with the assumption that he'll be able to break out and sign a better long-term deal next year.

[jedimaas]

I wonder, though, if that will dissuade Eller's camp from going to arbitration or if it won't make much of a difference. If we work under the assumption that the Canadiens are offering a long term deal for mid level salary, Eller's camp still might see it as better for him to take a short arbitration deal at a low salary level with the assumption that he'll be able to break out and sign a better long-term deal next year.

Yes - and if, like i suspect, they are more having trouble agreeing on term vs. salary, arbitration assures short term.

[BeanCountingHab]

Oh wow, that is interesting. Does that mean that they can't use context at all? For example, as a fan you could look at Eller and say that any time that he's been given top line wingers he's played like a top line centre - it's just that for most of his time he hasn't had top line wingers. If all the arbitrator can go on, though, is points/60 minutes and other similar stats then Eller is not going to come out looking great.

I wonder, though, if that will dissuade Eller's camp from going to arbitration or if it won't make much of a difference. If we work under the assumption that the Canadiens are offering a long term deal for mid level salary, Eller's camp still might see it as better for him to take a short arbitration deal at a low salary level with the assumption that he'll be able to break out and sign a better long-term deal next year.

I don't think the eye test gets to really come into it. It's probably how they make it an even playing field for all players. I mean, certainly you'd be able to see from his stats that he's used on the PK, how he's used in the lineup to an extent based on his ice time etc. but I don't think you're going to get much info on linemates/matchups.

[Graeme-1]

One interesting thing I didn't realize is that the arbitrator uses (and can only use) statistics from NHL.com when coming up with an arbitration figure. That won't be super beneficial to Eller.

I honestly have no idea if this is a joke or not

Trying to evaluate a defensive forward or stay at home defenseman from stats alone seems next to impossible. Especially since I'm guessing the official NHL stats don't include some of the Moneyball style statistics.

[BeanCountingHab]

I honestly have no idea if this is a joke or not

Trying to evaluate a defensive forward or stay at home defenseman from stats alone seems next to impossible. Especially since I'm guessing the official NHL stats don't include some of the Moneyball style statistics.

I wasn't joking, but what I wrote may be a bit misleading. I'm saying any stats they want to use can only come from NHL.com so advanced statistics wouldn't come into it. More specifically, this is what I just found:

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

• The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
• Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
• The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:

• The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
• Testimonials, video and media reports.
• The financial state of the team.
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.

[Manatee-X]

I wasn't joking, but what I wrote may be a bit misleading. I'm saying any stats they want to use can only come from NHL.com so advanced statistics wouldn't come into it. More specifically, this is what I just found:

The evidence that can be used in arbitration cases:

• The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
• Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
• The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
• The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
• The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
• The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.

Evidence that is not admissible:

• The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
• Testimonials, video and media reports.
• The financial state of the team.
• The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.

That's an interesting one. The fact that a guy is a fan favourite can actually dictate that he should be paid more.

[Graeme-1]

wasn't joking, but what I wrote may be a bit misleading. I'm saying any stats they want to use can only come from NHL.com so advanced statistics wouldn't come into it. More specifically, this is what I just found:

Ah okay, that's not that surprising given how reluctant the NHL has been to adopt advanced statistics. I thought you meant the decision was based 100% on statistics

[BeanCountingHab]

Ah okay, that's not that surprising given how reluctant the NHL has been to adopt advanced statistics. I thought you meant the decision was based 100% on statistics

It's probably more about assuring one uniform source of data on which the NHL can vouch for the accuracy. Technically, sites like extra skater use data from the NHL (like shots directed, missed etc) to compile Corsi, Fenwick etc but once that data has been manipulated by someone else I guess they no longer have the same level of assurance.

[jennifer_rocket]

Well, just over one week to go before Eller's arbitration date. Hopefully something gets worked out over the next week and both parties can avoid arbitration. Although, like some members have mentioned, Eller going to arbitration wouldn't be the end of the world.

[jedimaas]

every time i see this thread has been updated, i hope it means he's signed. lol.

Well, just over one week to go before Eller's arbitration date. Hopefully something gets worked out over the next week and both parties can avoid arbitration. Although, like some members have mentioned, Eller going to arbitration wouldn't be the end of the world.

As long as the team doesnt play dirty. I dont see it happening but we've seen arbitration cases in the past where the team has said so many critical things about the player (in order to keep the costs down) that he was never again happy to play for that team and eventually driven out of town. Mike Milbury was absolutely horrible for this (making a player cry in one instance) and I think Cammalleri's days in LA were sealed after his arbitration hearing.