Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

2015-16 State Of The Habs


Guest

Recommended Posts

DRIVE FOR 25

Will we be a threat to win it all this year?

Do we have the guns to go all the way?

Does our coaching staff survive the whole season?

What do we need from our current roster to get over that big hump?

What if any, additions/changes are needed?

A lot of questions to answer in the coming months. This is the place to do it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With our off season moves so far, here's a look at our current roster:

LW: Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, De La Rose

C: Desharnais, Plekanec, Eller, Mitchell

RW: Gallagher, Kassian, Smith-Pelly, Weise, Flynn

RD: Subban, Petry, Gilbert, Pateryn

LD: Markov, Beaulieu, Emelin

G: Price, Tokarski

12 Forwards

7 Defensemen

2 Goaltenders

That leaves us with 2 unclaimed roster spots. Tinordi, Bournival, Thomas and Nygren, are still in negotiations which could end in a one-way deal. That would not guarantee them a roster spot (one-way only affects their salary), but a one-way contract generally means the club intends to use you at the NHL level.

Hudon, Andrighetto, and Holloway will realistically compete for a spot on the roster.

Additionally, there is a chance that another player takes a big step and catches the eye of management, at least earning a trial run with the club to open the season.

That could put us somewhere around 10 players competing for 2 roster spots, with at least one of those being a player capable of playing left wing. Possibly giving Hudon or Bournival an edge based on need.

--------------

We currently have a lot of depth at C and RW.

One would hope we can translate some of that depth into a 2nd line LW and transition Galchenyuk to C this season.

Whether that is achieved through a trade or one of our current players taking that spot is immaterial, but such a move has the best potential to improve our overall team picture.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rico, that's sort of depressing. Despite the 'C' depth, our top four choices still leave a lot to be desired in a top-six capacity. Desharnais, Eller, Plekanec, Mitchell... None can fill the top line void that we have. We also still look like we're missing a proper right-wing after Gallagher. Yeah, it's possible Kassian or Smith-Pelley might impress this season, but it's probably more likely that they score less than 10 goals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really like that this team is going to be very hard to play against. The team defence, in my opinion, is the best it's been in years. Every single forward has a defensive upside. The defence corps is solid. The team is bigger and younger than it has been in previous years. We have the best goalie I'm the league and a decent back up.

I like the team identity and think they will do very well next year.

I would take a chance on Semin at a league minimum to try and get an additional 15 goals. Worth a shot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a segment in the TSN videos where they spoke of McCarron initially, but also mentioned how we need to find more scoring in order to compete in the playoffs and contend for the Cup, and how Bergevin has more work to do. I'm in agreement.

Rico, that's sort of depressing. Despite the 'C' depth, our top four choices still leave a lot to be desired in a top-six capacity. Desharnais, Eller, Plekanec, Mitchell... None can fill the top line void that we have. We also still look like we're missing a proper right-wing after Gallagher. Yeah, it's possible Kassian or Smith-Pelley might impress this season, but it's probably more likely that they score less than 10 goals.

Galchenyuk taking 1st line center position, immediately looks a lot better and makes at least 1 other center expendable.

That's how you get over the "depressing" aspect of the lineup.

Kassian and/or DSP making an offensive impact is one possibility, a prospect would be another. I'm okay with exploring those options before going after an established offensive winger.

I did mention ...

Hudon, Andrighetto, and Holloway will realistically compete for a spot on the roster.

Additionally, there is a chance that another player takes a big step and catches the eye of management, at least earning a trial run with the club to open the season.

It appears McCarron and Scherbak may have both taken big steps. Scherbak has bulked up, which could increase his ability to play amongst the men in the NHL and McCarron had a successful season and additional growth spurt while playing center, en route to the Memorial Cup. Both have been tallying good numbers in the lower leagues.

More hope on the horizon!

I really like that this team is going to be very hard to play against. The team defence, in my opinion, is the best it's been in years. Every single forward has a defensive upside. The defence corps is solid. The team is bigger and younger than it has been in previous years. We have the best goalie I'm the league and a decent back up.

I like the team identity and think they will do very well next year.

I would take a chance on Semin at a league minimum to try and get an additional 15 goals. Worth a shot.

You may find that our "team defense" is actually worse than it at first appears. Simply because our system enables the other team more possession, shots, and scoring chances. Price is the difference here.

Our defense corps, I agree is looking good. Petry and the establishment of Beaulieu (and Pateryn to a lesser extent), should give us a mobile and effective group. How we deploy those assets will be a factor. Markov should be able to have a reduced role so we don't burn him out over the course of the season. Emelin, Gilbert, and Pateryn will have to be used wisely and limited if they should have rough patches over the course of the season.

I do caution that a lack of offensive ability in our forward group does not necessarily equate to defensive ability. We are probably closer to 50/50 in that regard than you would initially believe. This is something that would likely be improved under a different system, but not currently.

I also agree on Semin. At the very least, it would be insulation for our prospects and moving Galchenyuk to center, possibly giving us another legitimate 1st liner out of the deal. He won't sign for league minimum, but he will definitely be a bargain for this season. If we end up with too many forwards in the process, it would be a good time to swap some depth for a prime player that compliments our scoring.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's bang on with respect to a lot of things. Great explanations of why Eller is a superior player to Desharnais, why Emelin needs to be dropped from the top 4, and why Therrien needs to completely change what he is doing. I have pretty low expectations that the coaching staff will listen to Matt Pfeffer though... Therrien has pretty explicitly stated that he doesn't put much stock in advanced stats because they "don't measure grit and character"...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

State of the roster/cap for next off-season (stats.nhlnumbers.com).

Lines are only meant as a guide to illustrate approximately where our money is being spent.

Pacioretty [4.5] - Desharnais [3.5] - Gallagher [3.75]

Galchenyuk [2.8] - Eller [3.5]

DLR [.925] - Mitchell [1.2] - Flynn [.950]

Markov [5.75] - Subban [9.0]

Beaulieu [1.0] - Petry [5.5]

Emelin [4.1] - Pateryn [.800]

Price [6.5]

Buyout [1.33] (Parenteau)

UFA List:

Plekanec [5.0]

Semin [1.1]

Weise [1.025]

Gilbert [2.8]

RFA List:

Kassian [1.75]

DSP [.800]

Bournival [.600]

Barberio [.600]

Tinordi [.851]

Thomas [.600]

Prospect RFA's: Nygren, Carr, Bennett, Dietz, Andrighetto, Fournier, Ellis, Dumont

-------

Signed Forwards [8]: $21.25M

Signed Defense [6]: $26.15M

Signed Goalies [1]: $6.50M

Buyout [1]: $1.33M

Total Signed [15]: $55.23M

*Remaining [8]: $16.17M

*Assuming cap of $71.4M with no increase currently projected

-------

Those numbers don't look all that comforting at this point. For the most part, our money is allocated towards the top end of our roster. With Emelin being the notable exception.

The concerns are the cost to retain our current personnel past this season versus improving our top 6 forward group. While we aren't in a "crunch" situation, we likely don't have enough space to do both barring some player movement.

Plekanec, Weise, and Tokarski, will likely come close to $8M alone (whether we agree with it or not, all three players will get raises, with Weise's being the most significant. That's a side effect of inflating a bottom 6 player's production by playing him on the top line).

Kassian and DSP will be retained, we aren't giving up on either recently acquired player after 1 full season, regardless of their results. That brings us up to $10-11M, filling 5 of the 8 slots.

Semin, Tinordi, Bournival, and Thomas are the question marks. I think it's safe to say we will be letting Gilbert go to free agency at this point. We now have $5-6M left now to spend on 3 roster spots (barring a cap increase of any significant amount). That doesn't sound too bad initially, but we have to account for the need to fill one of those spots with a top 6 forward, which would and should take at least a majority of that space. It also virtually precludes us from adding any of the top free agents next summer (nhl.com list). That isn't necessarily a bad thing, as we know, but it does further illustrate the point that we don't have as much flexibility as we would like. Prospects aren't the solution, as they aren't going to replace the players making the most money, so the savings would be marginal (they might give more "bang for the buck" but the number of bucks isn't that different).

--------

In conclusion, while we can keep our team more or less intact next season, I believe it should be apparent by now that this team is not likely to win the cup. The question is how do we gain the flexibility to make the necessary improvements? Is it by departing with veterans such as Plekanec and Markov, or by moving underwhelming players such as Emelin and Desharnais (or Eller in others' opinion)? Or by some combination of the two? Is this UFA class tempting enough to encourage cap movement to sign a big contract? You would have to be disappointed not to even be able to take a stab at a player as rare as Stamkos hitting the open market, but there are other enticing options ranging from Kopitar to Okposo that we may not even be in a position to consider.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were a total of 6,719 goals scored last season. Of those goals, 1061 were scored by defensemen. No goaltenders scored.

A total of ~$1,040,868,345 (estimated) was spent on forwards.

Ostensibly, forwards are paid to score goals. While they also assume additional roles, when you are paying for a forward, that is the primary consideration when determining their value.

Each goal scored last season was therefore worth ~$183,964, or 10 Goals is worth about $1,839,640, as we tend to refer to players in the multiples of 10 for their scoring ability (as in Gallagher is a 20-goal scorer, even though he actually scored 19 and 24 goals the last two seasons).

I thought it would be interesting to see how our top 6 compares in terms of value.

Using last season's numbers, with green representing value and red representing negative value:

Pacioretty ($4.50M) : 37 goals = $6.806668 ($2,306,668)

Plekanec ($5.0M) : 26 goals = $4.783064 ($216,936)

Gallagher ($3.75) : 24 goals = $4,415,136 ($665,136)

Galchenyuk ($2.80) : 20 goals = $3,679,280 ($879,280)

Eller ($3.50) : 15 goals = $2,759,460 ($740,540)

Desharnais ($3.50M) : 14 goals = $2,575,496 ($924,504)

The remainder of the roster is about in line, with Weise standing out as a 10 goal scorer for $800,000 or so less than expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^ I don't think the analysis is complete, though, without factoring in ice time. It'd be pretty hard to also factor in linemates, strength of opposition, zone starts and so on, but to make the analysis better, I think you need to look at the fact that a guy like Eller is not showing you good value, yet 15 goals for a guy who plays with pretty awful linemates, gets bad zonestarts, almost never plays the PP, etc. is actually pretty good production. 14 goals from a guy like Desharnais who gets 1st line minutes, O-zone starts, and Pacioretty as a winger is conversely pretty poor production, even though their totals are pretty similar. On a lot of websites, you can get reports of goals/ 60 minutes of ES ice time. That's probably a better indicator of production than raw totals. If you look at cost per G/60, even though that doesn't factor in linemates or zone starts, it does a better job of showing fairer comparatives. Just as an example:

Pacioretty: 1.17 G/60 at 5v5... paying 3.84M for every goal per 60 minutes of ice time

Plekanec: 0.73... 6.85M per G/60

Galchenyuk: 0.84... 3.33M

Gallagher: 0.98... 3.83M

Eller: 0.66... 5.30M

Desharnais: 0.42... 8.33M

Semin 0.46... 2.39M

That probably gives you a bit better idea of what you're getting for your money. Semin seems to be great value, followed by Galchenyuk, Gallagher, and Pacioretty. Then there's a bit of a drop-off to Eller and then Plekanec and then Desharnais. Putting it that way, it really shows you that we're getting good value on our top wingers and that Eller is the best value at center, whereas Desharnais is giving us a weak return.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^ I don't think the analysis is complete, though, without factoring in ice time. It'd be pretty hard to also factor in linemates, strength of opposition, zone starts and so on, but to make the analysis better, I think you need to look at the fact that a guy like Eller is not showing you good value, yet 15 goals for a guy who plays with pretty awful linemates, gets bad zonestarts, almost never plays the PP, etc. is actually pretty good production. 14 goals from a guy like Desharnais who gets 1st line minutes, O-zone starts, and Pacioretty as a winger is conversely pretty poor production, even though their totals are pretty similar. On a lot of websites, you can get reports of goals/ 60 minutes of ES ice time. That's probably a better indicator of production than raw totals. If you look at cost per G/60, even though that doesn't factor in linemates or zone starts, it does a better job of showing fairer comparatives. Just as an example:

Pacioretty: 1.17 G/60 at 5v5... paying 3.84M for every goal per 60 minutes of ice time

Plekanec: 0.73... 6.85M per G/60

Galchenyuk: 0.84... 3.33M

Gallagher: 0.98... 3.83M

Eller: 0.66... 5.30M

Desharnais: 0.42... 8.33M

Semin 0.46... 2.39M

That probably gives you a bit better idea of what you're getting for your money. Semin seems to be great value, followed by Galchenyuk, Gallagher, and Pacioretty. Then there's a bit of a drop-off to Eller and then Plekanec and then Desharnais. Putting it that way, it really shows you that we're getting good value on our top wingers and that Eller is the best value at center, whereas Desharnais is giving us a weak return.

We could definitely go deeper into that analysis. Finding ways to go beyond the raw numbers without it taking several hours of stat-gathering, is difficult. I would like to know what the standard value in goals/60 is for the league, and then compare that to our players' goals/60, as it would be a better determination of that specific value.

As far as Eller not showing good value due to his situation, while I would agree, it would not be a determination of his contract value (in the eyes of a generic NHL GM), which was more of the point. If Eller were to sign a new contract today through free agency, he would likely be closer to the $3M mark in terms of salary. If he were signed for more than that, we would generally consider it an over-payment (not you and I perhaps, but the general populace).

Sutter just signed for $4.375M, for example, and had 21 goals last season. Paying him for his current level of play would suggest a salary closer to $3,863,244. He hasn't had the best opportunities and may be capable of more, but when I first saw that contract announced, my initial reaction was "over-payment". Especially for that term. While it may turn out to be good value, in a bubble, it doesn't look like a good signing.

-----

Looking at it another way, the league-wide barometer is 5.44 Goals/Million. (numbers from stats.nhlnumbers)

Pacioretty produced 8.22 Goals/Million

Galchenyuk produced 7.14 Goals/Million (calculated based on his new salary)

Gallagher produced 6.40 Goals/Million (calculated based on his new salary)

Plekanec produced 5.20 Goals/Million

Eller produced 4.29 Goals/Million

Desharnais produced 4.00 Goals/Million

Of the 3 players that are producing below league averaged levels, only 1 of those players has not had the conditions in their favor for any length of time to stimulate their production, and that is indeed Eller. This also shows Desharnais as being the worst value, even without taking ice-time and other factors into consideration. It also suggests Plekanec is being paid close to fair value, although he is still in the negative column.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^ There's still merit in what you've posted here, Ricochet. I just think it gives a more accurate picture to try as best as possible to take into account ice time and opportunity. Doing things the way you have, a player who scored 35 goals in 50 games would be deemed less valuable than one who scored 36 goals in 75 games. A player who puts up 20 goals but scored 15 of them on the PP is given the same value as a guy who put 20 goals without getting any PP time. I think the goal for us in determining the value of each player is to figure out how two guys competing for a job have done in comparable situations.

For example, we could ask whether Galchenyuk or Plekanec or Desharnais would give us the best return as a number one center. But to do that, we'd need to know not just how many goals each guy put up per salary but also what opportunity they were given to produce those numbers. I agree that factoring in linemates and zone starts and figuring out the relative contribution of those factors to a player's production would be tough. But goals per 60 at ES is a pretty easy stat to record and find... the numbers give similar results to what you posted but do show that Pacioretty and Gallagher are not just benefiting from ice time, they're also productive in that time as well. They show that Galchenyuk and Semin are productive players who probably deserve big ice time. And they show that Eller, when you adjust for opportunity, is more productive than Plekanec and way more productive than Desharnais, a guy he looks comparable to if you just look at goals and salary alone. But it would suggest that if you gave Eller the ice time and opportunity given to Desharnais, he'd probably out-produce him by a wider margin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the stats, but would like to see the same done with assists to provide a clearer view of the point value of a player. For some players this may be a bit of an issue ie. Galchenyuk, Desharnais or to a bigger extent a Nugent-Hopkins type who just need to shoot more. This appears to validate how I see this team. We appear to have alot of players who are paid and performing at the level of a 2nd liner, whether caused by coaching or skill set. I am not sure we have a championship level number one line and believe the closest we were to having that was with Vanek and Pacioretty. From a salary perspective Bergevin appears to pay a fair value for his players, although Patches may want to renegotiate in the near future.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/21/montreal-canadiens-15-16-outlook/#comments

(my bold)

The Montreal Canadiens feature two of the things you look for in a championship contender: an elite goalie (Carey Price) and an outstanding, versatile defenseman (P.K. Subban).

Management seems pretty even-keeled about the team’s flaws, especially on offense. Perhaps a division title (not to mention league-wide trends of lower scoring) can breed patience/complacency.*

To most people, P.K. Subban (26 years old) and Carey Price (28) still seem enviably fresh-faced, yet it’s important to remember that windows of greatness can close with cruel quickness in sports.

One can reasonably expect goalies to age a bit more gracefully, yet Price would need to stand on his head to top the award-hogging season he generated in 2014-15. Subban may still have some upside even considering his current level of brilliance, but for how long will either one remain elite?

Look, it’s true that the Canadiens boast a ton of players who are in or around their primes. Max Pacioretty is just 26. Alex Galchenyuk could rocket up the charts, as he’s only 21, while Brendan Gallagher could very well pester for more than a decade considering the fact that he’s merely 23. Heck, Alexander Semin isn’t even that old at 31.

Even so, there’s a cut-off point where a slow-and-steady approach risks throwing away the best years of two of the most talented players on the planet.

If the coming 2015-16 season isn’t a pivotal one for GM Marc Bergevin to decide if he has the right supporting cast around Subban and Price – coach included – then it sure should be.

* – Feel free to use whichever word you think applies to Habs’ management.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest habs1952

The Montreal Canadiens feature two of the things you look for in a championship contender: an elite goalie (Carey Price) and an outstanding, versatile defenseman (P.K. Subban).

Management seems pretty even-keeled about the team’s flaws, especially on offense. Perhaps a division title (not to mention league-wide trends of lower scoring) can breed patience/complacency.*

To most people, P.K. Subban (26 years old) and Carey Price (28) still seem enviably fresh-faced, yet it’s important to remember that windows of greatness can close with cruel quickness in sports.

One can reasonably expect goalies to age a bit more gracefully, yet Price would need to stand on his head to top the award-hogging season he generated in 2014-15. Subban may still have some upside even considering his current level of brilliance, but for how long will either one remain elite?

Look, it’s true that the Canadiens boast a ton of players who are in or around their primes. Max Pacioretty is just 26. Alex Galchenyuk could rocket up the charts, as he’s only 21, while Brendan Gallagher could very well pester for more than a decade considering the fact that he’s merely 23. Heck, Alexander Semin isn’t even that old at 31.

Even so, there’s a cut-off point where a slow-and-steady approach risks throwing away the best years of two of the most talented players on the planet.

If the coming 2015-16 season isn’t a pivotal one for GM Marc Bergevin to decide if he has the right supporting cast around Subban and Price – coach included – then it sure should be.

* – Feel free to use whichever word you think applies to Habs’ management.

Blind, when it comes to the coaching staff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Montreal Canadiens feature two of the things you look for in a championship contender: an elite goalie (Carey Price) and an outstanding, versatile defenseman (P.K. Subban).

Management seems pretty even-keeled about the team’s flaws, especially on offense. Perhaps a division title (not to mention league-wide trends of lower scoring) can breed patience/complacency.*

To most people, P.K. Subban (26 years old) and Carey Price (28) still seem enviably fresh-faced, yet it’s important to remember that windows of greatness can close with cruel quickness in sports.

One can reasonably expect goalies to age a bit more gracefully, yet Price would need to stand on his head to top the award-hogging season he generated in 2014-15. Subban may still have some upside even considering his current level of brilliance, but for how long will either one remain elite?

Look, it’s true that the Canadiens boast a ton of players who are in or around their primes. Max Pacioretty is just 26. Alex Galchenyuk could rocket up the charts, as he’s only 21, while Brendan Gallagher could very well pester for more than a decade considering the fact that he’s merely 23. Heck, Alexander Semin isn’t even that old at 31.

Even so, there’s a cut-off point where a slow-and-steady approach risks throwing away the best years of two of the most talented players on the planet.

If the coming 2015-16 season isn’t a pivotal one for GM Marc Bergevin to decide if he has the right supporting cast around Subban and Price – coach included – then it sure should be.

* – Feel free to use whichever word you think applies to Habs’ management.

Blind, when it comes to the coaching staff.

Blind AND stubborn....not a good combination.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct me if I'm wrong please, because Tinordi isn't showing on the Habs' roster currently.

At the end of the season, all waiver-eligible players are reverted to the NHL roster.

Tinordi's waiver exemption expired with his ELC this season (minus 2 years of waiver exemption due to NHL games played).

So he is officially part of the NHL roster at this time, even if the site doesn't list him, correct?

I've been checking intermittently for weeks, expecting the roster to be updated with Tinordi, but since it hasn't happened yet, it's making me question what I think I know. Just looking for some confirmation.

With 14 F, 8 D, and 2 G already listed, adding Tinordi could be the difference between losing a player to waivers or not.

DLR is waiver exempt, so we have a fall-back option for being 1 man over, but Tinordi would mean a 2nd player has to move, one that is not waiver exempt.

Thomas, Flynn, and Barberio are probably the least likely to be claimed, which isn't exactly comforting, because I could easily see any one of those players being taken. I'd much rather see some player movement than losing a player for nothing anyway, but I'm already thinking ahead to the inevitable expansion draft, where every team is going to lose at least a couple of players. We may see some stockpiling happen from smart GMs, especially where those players have NHL experience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct me if I'm wrong please, because Tinordi isn't showing on the Habs' roster currently.

At the end of the season, all waiver-eligible players are reverted to the NHL roster.

Tinordi's waiver exemption expired with his ELC this season (minus 2 years of waiver exemption due to NHL games played).

So he is officially part of the NHL roster at this time, even if the site doesn't list him, correct?

I've been checking intermittently for weeks, expecting the roster to be updated with Tinordi, but since it hasn't happened yet, it's making me question what I think I know. Just looking for some confirmation.

With 14 F, 8 D, and 2 G already listed, adding Tinordi could be the difference between losing a player to waivers or not.

DLR is waiver exempt, so we have a fall-back option for being 1 man over, but Tinordi would mean a 2nd player has to move, one that is not waiver exempt.

Thomas, Flynn, and Barberio are probably the least likely to be claimed, which isn't exactly comforting, because I could easily see any one of those players being taken. I'd much rather see some player movement than losing a player for nothing anyway, but I'm already thinking ahead to the inevitable expansion draft, where every team is going to lose at least a couple of players. We may see some stockpiling happen from smart GMs, especially where those players have NHL experience.

From EOTP

"For the time Tinordi will be eligible for waivers this upcoming season, which puts him in a tricky situation. If he's not ready for NHL action and gets sent down, there's a great chance that he will get claimed"

Hope this answers your question re Tinordi.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From EOTP

"For the time Tinordi will be eligible for waivers this upcoming season, which puts him in a tricky situation. If he's not ready for NHL action and gets sent down, there's a great chance that he will get claimed"

Hope this answers your question re Tinordi.

Yes, thank you.

Unfortunately, while trying to find a waiver status list, I stumbled accross this ... http://habsprospects.com/waivers.html

If accurate, it would add Bournival, Dumont, Ellis, and Holloway as well.

I still like Bournival and it may be too early to give up on Ellis completely.

I'm not sold on Dumont or Holloway ever making an impact at the NHL level, but still dislike losing assets for nothing.

Not counting the waiver exempt DLR, that puts us in the position of placing 5 players on waivers to start the season.

Out of the group of 7 most likely to be in that position (Thomas, Barberio, Flynn, Bournival, Ellis, Dumont, and Holloway), I could see a number of those players being claimed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...