Tue, 15 Dec 2015 Sharks @ Canadiens 7:30 PM EST RDS Sportsnet East CSN California TSN 690

[habs_93]

SHARKS (14-14-1) at CANADIENS (20-8-3)

TV: RDS, Sportsnet East (US Centre Ice GAME06 HD), Comcast Sportsnet California (DirecTV 698/779, DIsh Network 412-01/475-07)
Radio: TSN 690 CKGM, KFOX 98.5FM KUFX

Canadiens Last 5: 1-4-0 (W1)
Sharks Last 5: 0-4-1 (L1)

Canadiens: 20.4% PP (11th), 86.7% PK (3rd), 3.19 Goals/G (2nd), 2.23 Goals Against/G (4th), 31.5 Shots/G (4th), 28.1 Shots Against/G (T-6th), 52.8% 5-on-5 Corsi for (5th), 52.8% 5-on-5 Fenwick for (5th), 53.9% 5-on-5 Score Adjusted Corsi for (3rd), 53.8% 5-on-5 Fenwick Close (4th), 1013 PDO (5th)

Sharks: 17.7% PP (19th), 81.5% PK (13th), 2.55 Goals/G (16th), 2.69 Goals Against/G (19th), 29.7 Shots/G (14th), 28.0 Shots Against/G (5th), 49.9% 5-on-5 Corsi for (13th), 51.6% 5-on-5 Fenwick for (T-7th), 49.4% 5-on-5 Score Adjusted Corsi for (16th), 52.1% 5-on-5 Fenwick Close (8th), 989 PDO (T-24th)

Season series: The Montreal Canadiens and the San Jose Sharks split shutout wins last season. Montreal goalie Carey Price made 29 saves, and Tomas Plekanec had a goal and an assist in a 2-0 win on March 21. San Jose forwards Joe Pavelski and Ben Smith each had a goal and an assist, and goalie Alex Stalock made 20 saves in a 4-0 win on March 2.

Sharks team scope: Forward Logan Couture will miss San Jose's five-game trip that begins Tuesday. Couture, who has been limited to five games because of injuries, had surgery to repair a bleeding artery in his right thigh Thursday, an injury he sustained during San Jose's 4-3 overtime loss at the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday. "We knew that when Couture went out that we were going to have to rely on a foundation of our defensive game and be able to win 2-1 and 3-2," coach Peter DeBoer told the San Jose Mercury News on Sunday. "When you take a 60-70 point guy out of anybody's lineup, a No. 1 or No. 2 center, you have to make sure that foundation is in place, and you have to be prepared to win games 2-1." The Sharks have lost six straight and are 11-13-0 without Couture. "Drop six in a row, it gets frustrating out there," Pavelski told the Sharks website. "We've got to calm down a little bit and realize where we're at."

Leading Scorer: Joe Pavelski (13-13-26)
Leading Possession Player: Joe Thornton (53.8% 5-on-5 Corsi For)
Ice Time Leader: Brent Burns (26:36 ATOI)
Potential Sleeper (High Possession/Low PDO): Brent Burns (54.4% 5-on-5 Fenwick For, 960 PDO)
Narrative Player (Low Possession/High PDO): None, really.

Running Statistics
Last 5:
5-on-5 Fenwick For: 53.21%
5-on-5 Fenwick Close: 54.05%
5-on-5 Score Adjusted Fenwick For: 51.31%
PDO: 928
GD: -7
Actual P%/Pythagorean Expected P% Delta: -0.121

Last 10:
5-on-5 Fenwick For: 52.69%
5-on-5 Fenwick Close: 52.86%
5-on-5 Score Adjusted Fenwick For: 51.43%
PDO: 960
GD: -6
Actual P%/Pythagorean Expected P% Delta: -0.025

Canadiens team scope: Goalie Dustin Tokarski will make his third consecutive start. Tokarski earned his first win since March 17 in Montreal's 3-1 victory against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday. Coach Michel Therrien said center Torrey Mitchell should be back in the lineup against the Sharks. Mitchell has missed 10 games with a lower-body injury. "He had such a great start with us," Therrien said. "He's a dynamic player and we certainly missed him when he was not there because he was a big part of our success, like we all remember, early in the season. So we're glad that he's going to be back. He's a guy who can kill penalties, play against top lines and do a lot of good things." Injured right wing Brendan Gallagher skated Monday. Gallagher is recovering from surgery to repair two broken fingers on his left hand after he blocked a slap shot from New York Islanders defenseman Johnny Boychuk on Nov. 22.

Leading Scorer: Tomáš Plekanec (7-20-27)
Leading Possession Player: Sven Andrighetto (60% 5-on-5 Corsi For)
Ice Time Leader: P.K. Subban (25:12)
Potential Sleeper (High Possession/Low PDO): None, really.
Narrative Player (Low Possession/High PDO): Brian Flynn (47.7% 5-on-5 Fenwick For, 1033 PDO)

Running Statistics
Last 5:
5-on-5 Fenwick For: 56.23%
5-on-5 Fenwick Close: 58.73%
5-on-5 Score Adjusted Fenwick For: 56.7%
PDO: 967
GD: -3
Actual P%/Pythagorean Expected P% Delta: -0.172

Last 10:
5-on-5 Fenwick For: 54.35%
5-on-5 Fenwick Close: 55.43%
5-on-5 Score Adjusted Fenwick For: 55.15%
PDO: 998
GD: 3
Actual P%/Pythagorean Expected P% Delta: -0.014

All Time Record vs. San Jose: 15-11-4-2 (.563 Point %)

Last Meeting: 21/03/15

SJS 0 - MTL 2

[kinot-1]

Hey, 93,,, cool GDT . not understanding the "gobbley-gook" that comes with it,,, but I trust your judgement.

[habs_93]

Hey, 93,,, cool GDT . not understanding the "gobbley-gook" that comes with it,,, but I trust your judgement.

Thanks. I decided to add something I find myself wanting: a 5/10 game snapshot of both teams. Next on the to do list: graphs!

[kinot-1]

Thanks. I decided to add something I find myself wanting: a 5/10 game snapshot of both teams. Next on the to do list: graphs!

Ya,,,, like I will understand those.

[RicochetII]

Hey, 93,,, cool GDT . not understanding the "gobbley-gook" that comes with it,,, but I trust your judgement.

Thanks 93!

I don't follow the Delta P% yet, so I could use an explanation? If it's already in the stat discussion thread, let me know. If not, I'll be looking forward to a post about it.

For Kevin:

Basically, both teams have been playing relatively well and had some bad "luck" (PDO) in their last 5 to 10 games (though we have generally been playing better). While both teams have been heading downwards and left points on the table, the Sharks have had worse luck than us.

If both teams carry an equal shooting % and save % for this game, it is a game we should win.

Low PDO basically means a team will eventually see higher shooting % or save %'s that will bring them back towards the average.

In short don't be surprised if the Sharks win this one.

[Marathon.Man]

GO HABS GO!!!

[habs_93]

I don't follow the Delta P% yet, so I could use an explanation? If it's already in the stat discussion thread, let me know. If not, I'll be looking forward to a post about it.

It's relatively simple, it's the difference between the team's actual point percentage and a Pythagorean expected point percentage formula without a corrected exponent, GF² / (GF² + GA²). This isn't perfect thanks to the three point games and ROW rules in the NHL, but it's pretty good. Think of it as how much better or worse a record has been versus what it "should" be. In this case, both teams are having rather horrid luck, which the numbers agree with. As it's goal-based it's relatively noisy, though. I'm going to spend part of my break on Pythagorean expectation (I'm a barrel of fun, truly ), so with a bit of effort and luck I'll have something better to work with before the season's over.

Here's a visual comparison of the cumulative 5-on-5 data. Left axis and areas are 5-on-5 Fenwick For, right axis and lines are PDO:

[Guest]

Expecting a good match tonight,,,especially if our goaltending holds up. Sharks will be hungry trying to end their losing streak and we should be just as hungry for the 2 points knowing we have an 8 game road trip coming up. I'm almost expecting this one to end up in O.T.

[HabsRuleForever]

So sink or swim tonight.

[jennifer_rocket]

Both teams with poor results in their last five games.

[RicochetII]

It's relatively simple, it's the difference between the team's actual point percentage and a Pythagorean expected point percentage formula without a corrected exponent, GF² / (GF² + GA²). This isn't perfect thanks to the three point games and ROW rules in the NHL, but it's pretty good. Think of it as how much better or worse a record has been versus what it "should" be. In this case, both teams are having rather horrid luck, which the numbers agree with. As it's goal-based it's relatively noisy, though. I'm going to spend part of my break on Pythagorean expectation (I'm a barrel of fun, truly ), so with a bit of effort and luck I'll have something better to work with before the season's over.

Good luck. I enjoy numbers as well, but I think you're a little more into it.

This might be a little abstract for me.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something ... this is our season so far?

Habs GF = 3.19 GA = 2.23

3.19 * 3.19 / [(3.19 * 3.19) + (2.23 * 2.23)]

= 10.1761 / (10.1761 + 4.9729)

= 10.1761 / 15.149

= .6717 (expected point percentage)

.6935 is our actual point percentage, so the difference (or Delta P%) is .0218?

So our actual point percentage (for the season) is ~.022 (or 2.2%) above expectations in relation to our goal production/prevention?

If I have that wrong let me know. (I'm also curious as to why it is termed as Pythagorean while applying a square to the variables appears rather arbitrary, so maybe that's why I'm not getting it. Pythagorean implies a direct correlation between 3 squared values in a triangle, I don't see a relationship between the values here. You can't determine one of these values based upon the others, and the actual formula is 4 values, where x = GF^/(GF^ + GA^).

If you reply, maybe it should be in the stats thread. We don't want to spam the GDT and once rick gets here and starts picking on blaming kinot, it will be difficult to track the relevant posts.

[southernhabfan]

So sink or swim tonight.

Wha??? Expecting soft ice???lol....wait...oh yeah...come on boys..win this thing..we all know how you have such had time with bottom dwellers...or close to it. Go Habs! Thanks 93 for the heads up!

[fnveenie]

The Sharks are bad, so that means we'll probably lose.

[vegasrick]

Ya,,,, like I will understand those.

So sink or swim tonight.

SHARK! SHARK!

[southernhabfan]

SHARK! SHARK!

Who are you???????????????????

[Eyez]

The Batman will take care of those sharks ....

[vegasrick]

The Batman will take care of those sharks ....

In summary, this was an illegal hit to the head.

The shark was injured and did not return to the water.

Batman has never been suspended in his long career of fighting monsters.

The NHL Department of Player Safety has suspended Batman for two games.

[kinot-1]

The Batman will take care of those sharks ....

I think that's a rubber shark,

In summary, this was an illegal hit to the head.

The shark was injured and did not return to the water.

Batman has never been suspended in his long career of fighting monsters.

The NHL Department of Player Safety has suspended Batman for two games.

[RicochetII]

The Batman will take care of those sharks ....

I prefer left shark

and lol at the shark having a concussion.

[southernhabfan]

In summary, this was an illegal hit to the head.

The shark was injured and did not return to the water.

Batman has never been suspended in his long career of fighting monsters.

The NHL Department of Player Safety has suspended Batman for two games.

Could be one of the NHL's LOAN sharks.

[vegasrick]

The Sharks playing without Hertl will face quite a hurdle, and the hurt'll be evident.

[Eyez]

PUCK IZ DROPPED !

[vegasrick]

If this turns out to be a boring game, I'll blame San Jose's coach.

[Clues]

I just pulled some jumbo chocolate chip and holiday m&m cookies out of the oven. So if we lose it's not my fault.

[Guest]

If this turns out to be a boring game, I'll blame San Jose's coach.

HUH,,,,,not kinot???