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2016-17 State of the Habs


BigTed3
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8 minutes ago, Habberwacky said:

Don't think they "tried to". They did let him take his 9 million and go play in a new sandbox. Hope he has a great career, but that;s sports and life so I hope he doesn't mind saving a fortune in taxes. If they had no problems he would still be here. I think it goes without saying he wasn't doing what they wanted for the money he is getting.

Evidence suggests it wasn't just the money. Therrien bashed Subban repeatedly before he ever became head coach. Bergevin tried to stiff him twice in negotiations before he actually got paid (thanks to Molson). Neither guy showed any support for Subban for the Norris nor for the Olympics. The two foxhole guys hated Subban long before he made 9M a year.

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7 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Evidence suggests it wasn't just the money. Therrien bashed Subban repeatedly before he ever became head coach. Bergevin tried to stiff him twice in negotiations before he actually got paid (thanks to Molson). Neither guy showed any support for Subban for the Norris nor for the Olympics. The two foxhole guys hated Subban long before he made 9M a year.

I think Bergevin had a better understanding of the talent. Not sure he was stiffing him. It happens all the time. Many players have been signed to what some would call overvalued contracts but in the end both sides are in mutual agreement. Gallagher and Patches have both signed contracts that some would say are a bargain, but  they get the security. Pk wanted it all and Molson gave in before Bergevin. Part of that might have been PK's fan appeal. Not sure Bergevin and Molson or analytics for that matter are using the same metrics in the evaluation of his dollar value. By analytic standards PK may still be underpayed. 

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6 minutes ago, Habberwacky said:

I think Bergevin had a better understanding of the talent. Not sure he was stiffing him. It happens all the time. Many players have been signed to what some would call overvalued contracts but in the end both sides are in mutual agreement. Gallagher and Patches have both signed contracts that some would say are a bargain, but  they get the security. Pk wanted it all and Molson gave in before Bergevin. Part of that might have been PK's fan appeal. Not sure Bergevin and Molson or analytics for that matter are using the same metrics in the evaluation of his dollar value. By analytic standards PK may still be underpayed. 

By analytics, Subban is one of the top players in the league, so yes.

But with the first negotiation, Subban ended up with a bridge deal at a bargain to the Habs, so he probably gave in more than the team. On the second deal, Subban had just won a Norris trophy. Analytics or more traditional measures both suggested that Subban was an elite talent, and 9M a year was far from an overpayment. You can argue about whether it's smart money to pay one player that high a percentage of your salary cap, but Chicago and Pittsburgh have won multiple Cups and they're allocating fair chunks of change to 1-2 players. Habs are getting Gallagher, Pacman, Price, and Gallagher on fairly good deals right now. They're overpaying for Plekanec, Markov, Emelin, and Desharnais. To me, Subban was far from being the biggest contract problem, and in a couple of years, Subban's 9M might seem like a bargain as other D men re-up for higher amounts than him. He'll be in his prime for most of that contract, so it's really not that egregious.

In the end, MB is free to trade whoever he wants. But I don't think the dislike for Subban had anything to do with his contract. If Subban was making 6M a year, MB still would have looked for an excuse to make the trade. Evidence is strong that MT and MB just didn't like him. They've also been lying to us about this being a hockey trade, and the Subban/Weise/Galchenyuk/DSP statements simply reinforce that there was a personality issue there.

 

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17 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Evidence suggests it wasn't just the money. Therrien bashed Subban repeatedly before he ever became head coach. Bergevin tried to stiff him twice in negotiations before he actually got paid (thanks to Molson). Neither guy showed any support for Subban for the Norris nor for the Olympics. The two foxhole guys hated Subban long before he made 9M a year.

That Colorado goal was just the excuse they were looking for to dump Subban. 

 

 

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Anyone know where to find stats for

Scoring chances given up

and

Shooting percentage

Heard on the radio today Webers 's shooting % is 14 % where his average is really around 7 %

and the Habs have given up approx. 25 scoring chances / game this yr which is more than last yr at approx. 18

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Anyone know where to find stats for

Scoring chances given up

and

Shooting percentage

Heard on the radio today Webers 's shooting % is 14 % where his average is really around 7 %

and the Habs have given up approx. 25 scoring chances / game this yr which is more than last yr at approx. 18

 

 

Not sure where you can find scoring chances given up, but here's where I go to find info. It has scoring percentages for each player on the team. If you finagle around you can find other info too.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nhl/teams/mon/stats/

Not sure if this info is what you're looking for but here's the NHL stats link for shot attempts.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/enhanced?navid=nav-sts-adv

Here's some more gobbley-gook, maybe you can make sense of it all. 

http://behindthenet.ca/fenwick_2011.php?sort=6&section=close

 

 

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1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

SAT is the NHL's name for Corsi; I would highly recommend not using NHL.com because its stats management is terrible. Instead, I'd recommend Corsica.HockeyPuckalytics, and hopefully in not too long I'll have my own to link here. :)

As far as shooting percentage/scoring chances goes... Shooting percentage seems to be heavily influenced by luck. This is not the same as saying it's all luck, but that luck is so ingrained in everything that makes up the system we call "shooting percentage" that luck has approximately as much explanatory power as something else. So when a player has one that's many standard deviations above the mean, caution is warranted.

Scoring chances is more complex. There is no definition of what a scoring chance is. Different organizations define them their own way. The way I'm personally defining them is based on the old War-on-ice site, which used the NHL RTSS location data for shot attempts and categorizes a shot, block, or miss as a scoring chance if it meets certain criteria. If you look at the team tables on Corsica, you'll see something called xGF and xGA; this is Expected Goals For and Against. Without getting into a complicated discussion at the moment, this is not dissimilar to what we conceptually want from a "scoring chance" metric.

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44 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, Habs are ranked #1 team in 5 different power rankings this week:

- Sportsnet

- ESPN

- TSN

- The Hockey News

- NBC sports

 

Keeping in mind we were in this place last year, a lot of pundits seem to think we're back on track right now.

Short of the Sid-less Penguins, we haven't really faced any "elite" teams yet. Similar schedule last season, too. It'll be interesting to see how tomorrow night goes and where we stand next week. 

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5 minutes ago, Flying_Lion said:

Short of the Sid-less Penguins, we haven't really faced any "elite" teams yet. Similar schedule last season, too. It'll be interesting to see how tomorrow night goes and where we stand next week. 

But who are the elite teams in the league? There's a fair amount of parity, so the number of elite teams is probably not that high. Philly and Boston are probably as good as the majority of teams we'll face this season. Pittsburgh gets a pass because of their injuries and the fact they had played an OT game the night before, so not sure that's the best evaluation of how good they can be. Like you, I'd like to see if we can handle the likes of Tampa, Washington, Chicago, LA (albeit without Quick), San Jose, Dallas, Nashville, or St. Louis. In the past, we've had more difficulty with the West, but we've also had a lot of trouble putting away the bad teams. How many times have we played down to the level of Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, or Colorado? It's fine to lose games every now and then. What I'd like to see is more consistency from the team and the ability to play a sound game and put away the lower half of the league easily. We often get off to a great October, so I'll reserve judgment on how good this team is until I know whether they don't have a December-January meltdown.

 

 

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Keeping in mind we were in this place last year, a lot of pundits seem to think we're back on track right now.

It's early

This team could very well do what it did 2 yrs and be # 1 or # 2 in the league 

If it does , what does that say about the " team "  :7072:

 

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7 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

Tonight should show us a bit more about the state of the team. the bolts are a tough team for us and one of the best in the league. we don't have to win but we have to play up to an elite standard if we want to be taken seriously.

Agreed. This is the chance to have a statement game. The Bolts are one of the few really good teams in the league, and we're playing the second half of a back-to-back. This is a really good opportunity to prove we have "no excuses" and get this one done with a fresh Carey and home ice. If this team wants to be a Cup contender and a legit powerhouse the way many media members have anointed them thus far, they need to prove they can win tough games like this.

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33 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Plan the parade :5210:

 

 

Im sure MT and MB are feeling pretty giddy right about now -

Yep I would be too after a really tough injury filled year last year. nice to se many od our new players doing such a good job and the new options we have with them here. I wonder if they are planning a parade in Nashville.....

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Still some concerns about the fact the Habs are a middle-of-the-pack possession team and the fact they've benefited from a fair amount of puck luck. Hands up anyone who thinks they'll continue to have a .952 save percentage and a 10+% shooting percentage the rest of the year. Montoya and Price are currently 1-2 in the league in both GAA and Sv%, and the numbers are fairly ridiculous, even for Price.

That said, there are some positives here. The powerplay has picked up, and the PK (backed by Price) is terrific. The other thing I like is this: even though the possession numbers are not great, the Habs are near the top of the league for shot attempts for and shot attempts against. Obviously the first count is good and the second is bad, but this is something I've been advocating for for quite a while: if you have fantastic goaltending, you want to play in games where the event rate is high. You don't want to play in a tight defensive shell game where each team gets 20-30 shot attempts per game, you want to play in games where both teams are getting chances and where you feel confident your goalie will stop more of those than the other guy. So the fact we're playing in high-event games is a good sign.

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we do need some help yet, we need a good bigger truly offensive center for the second line this would allow us to get away from DD and drop Pleks to the third line which is where he belongs now and although I like Beau a good solid #2 dman who is established would be great for the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. and last a proven 2nd line left winger would be the icing on the cake. I know it is kind of pie in the sky stuff but I truly feel with those things we would be a really top tier threat for the cup. I think that now is the time and if we have to move a couple of folks to get it done we should probably do it.

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10 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

we do need some help yet, we need a good bigger truly offensive center for the second line this would allow us to get away from DD and drop Pleks to the third line which is where he belongs now and although I like Beau a good solid #2 dman who is established would be great for the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. and last a proven 2nd line left winger would be the icing on the cake. I know it is kind of pie in the sky stuff but I truly feel with those things we would be a really top tier threat for the cup. I think that now is the time and if we have to move a couple of folks to get it done we should probably do it.

We currently have about 2.5M in cap space to use... it's not going to leave a ton of options for a trade. If we wait until the trade deadline, we'd have the room to acquire a playe making 10M a year. And next season, Markov, Desharnais, and PAP's buyout come off the book, albeit we will need to re-up Galchenyuk and Beaulieu. Point being, not sure we're going to find an ideal replacement for our 2nd line right now via trade. Either we patch up the hole with DD or Plekanec or we recall McCarron or we wait until later in the year to be able to afford a player who can actually help.

 

 

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before we all start planning the parade rout , again

 

Actully the Islanders have allowed the most shots against

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/2016/10/28/canadiens-are-more-than-misters-october-cox.html

Price, needless to say, is once more the foundation, although his new backup, Al Montoya, actually has put up better numbers in his four appearances than Price has in his. The Habs have needed the goaltending; they’ve allowed the most shots in the league. It’s also worth noting a PDO (save percentage plus shooting percentage) of 105.73 isn’t sustainable.

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On ‎25‎/‎10‎/‎2016 at 3:16 PM, CANADIENS27 said:

That Colorado goal was just the excuse they were looking for to dump Subban. 

Yea and his comment after that he would do nothing different didn't help matters.

 

And when he missed all those games at the end of the year , I think they purposely didn't want him oin the lineup

 

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On 10/23/2016 at 3:54 PM, BigTed3 said:

Right. I don't get Therrien judging certain guys' offensive production based on 2-3 games performance and benching them for a month (Sekac, Briere, PAP, Thomas, Hudon, McCarron, Semin, etc. being other guys who have been deemed "not to have produced enough") yet being okay with the likes of Desharnais going on a 30-game slump or Weise or Prust or Byron not putting up goals for long stretches. Currently, Byron has played well but he's not a fantastic even strength player and he's an awful complement to Desharnais. Carr is much better-suited to playing the 3rd line, and if you really want Byron on the 3rd then you need to put McCarron in there in place of DD to make it work.

The real problem I have is with Flynn being in the starting 12 over Carr though. Flynn hasn't produced much in a couple of years, yet he continues to be given free passes while other guys are expected to produce at both ends of the ice. Flynn in my view shouldn't even be on our NHL roster while the likes of Carr, Hudon, McCarron, and so on don't get a shot.

 

 

Agreed I'm also horrifically sick Terriens "Magic 8-ball" lines.  You know, where he shakes the authentic NHL merch Habs 8 ball and always comes up with DD on a line with Patches.

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