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2016-17 State of the Habs


BigTed3
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I am going to go a step further and say the addition of Shaw or Dannault are both showing to be positive in relation to losing Eller. Eller's play is more suited to being a defensive specialist while Dannault and Shaw play a game that puts alot more pressure on the other team be it with net front presence, hitting or sheer speed. I love Eller, but fell we have moved forward with these acquisitions as they become important components of our team. 

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1 hour ago, Habberwacky said:

I am going to go a step further and say the addition of Shaw or Dannault are both showing to be positive in relation to losing Eller. Eller's play is more suited to being a defensive specialist while Dannault and Shaw play a game that puts alot more pressure on the other team be it with net front presence, hitting or sheer speed. I love Eller, but fell we have moved forward with these acquisitions as they become important components of our team. 

Eller remains an under-appreciated player. He really took on tough match-ups, freed up Plekanec/Galchenyuk/DD to get better linemates and zone starts, and managed to put up good possession numbers despite all this. In the few instances he was given quality linemates (EGG for example), he produced well. If Eller were still here, I think he would be the 2C on this team. That said, I 100% agree on Danault being a pleasant surprise as a fill-in and Shaw has come around in the past few weeks. Shaw showed up and to be blunt, played dumb hockey for the first little while he was here... dumb penalties, showboating, immature tantrums, and very little offence to show for his play. But in the past couple of weeks, he's produced more and I've noticed on several occasions that he's drawn penalties or taken hits and skated away without retaliating. If Shaw plays that way, then he's got a spot on the team. I still have a lot of doubt about handing a bottom 6 player a 6-year contract and that type of money based mainly on the fact that "he's a winner." That's the same logic we applied signing Hal Gill and Travis Moen and Brian Gionta and so on, and it's not a great thing to pay for. Players who win Cups with multiple teams are not common-place and most of them can count on skill rather than just being a winner. Other "winners" from Chicago like Andrew Ladd, Patrick Sharp, Dave Bolland, Brian Campbell, and Bryan Bickell haven't been able to re-capture Chicago's magic without Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith, and Qunneville. All that to say that Shaw has been a real plus the past couple of weeks, but I'll withhold crowning him a champ here until that actually happens.

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35 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Hmmm not sure about Eller he has 2 goals and one assist in Washington. new coach new team new start even worse results!

Kind of ironic. I know we talked a lot about giving him a defined role to help him get his scoring together, but it appears he was motivated more by the need to be more resilient in our line-up. His checking and usefulness when matching against some top players was great, but his hands, speed and scoring often took long droughts as happens with many on this team. I know he's been dinged up a little too but we appear to be doing good with that trade. I may have to eat these words when the playoffs start because Lars often picks it up come playoff time. He was an awful expensive pick-up for that kind of production and I think that was one of the reasons Bergevin saw him as expendable. If that money was used to help sign Radu then it was well worth it.

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^^ True that Eller only has 3 points on the year, but he's still being used as a 3rd line player in Washington (i.e. his role hasn't changed any from the one he was given in Montreal). He's 8th among forwards in 5v5 time on ice per game. He has 0 minutes of PP time.

Despite this, he has the BEST Corsi on the team at 57.6%. For reference, that is a better Corsi than every single regular player on the Canadiens, and he sits 9th overall in the entire NHL in that regard (players ahead of him include Patrice Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, Jagr, Krug, Kopitar, Jordan Staal, and Arvidsson, and Eller himself is tied with Sidney Crosby... in other words, these players aren't slouches who are randomly there, they are quality players). He has the 2nd-lowest PDO on the team, just 0.1% better than Justin Williams, and this is driven by an unusually low shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Again, that suggests that he's had bad puck luck, and we should expect his luck will turn and he will start picking up more points over time. Further to this, Eller has the weakest quality of linemates on the entire Washington team as well, meaning he is the guy on his line that is driving possession, not his wingers.

So what does this tell us? It tells us Eller isn't producing much, but it also tells us he's doing a stellar job at winning possession and shutting down the opposition. And when you play the 3rd line in Washington and you have Ovechkin and Oshie and Backstrom and Kuznetsov and Williams ahead of you, you're really being asked to keep the puck out of your own end and let the scorers score. It's the same issue as when he was here: a lot of what he does well isn't measured by traditional stats. I don't expect Eller to pot 20 goals from the 3rd line. But I do expect he'll finish the season with 12-14. And if he were given the chance to play the PP or play in the top 6, I think that number would certainly be higher. Shaw has more points here, but he's also had PP time, 50 minutes more of 5v5 time, a higher quality linemate, a lower personal Corsi, and a much higher PDO than Eller. All these things Shaw has had an easier go of it and that his numbers will regress slightly, while Eller's improve. I'd venture a guess that Shaw will still end up out-producing Eller offensively by year's end, but Eller in my view remains the more valuable player given what he brings to the center position and what a beast he is as a positive possession player.

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47 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ True that Eller only has 3 points on the year, but he's still being used as a 3rd line player in Washington (i.e. his role hasn't changed any from the one he was given in Montreal). He's 8th among forwards in 5v5 time on ice per game. He has 0 minutes of PP time.

Despite this, he has the BEST Corsi on the team at 57.6%. For reference, that is a better Corsi than every single regular player on the Canadiens, and he sits 9th overall in the entire NHL in that regard (players ahead of him include Patrice Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, Jagr, Krug, Kopitar, Jordan Staal, and Arvidsson, and Eller himself is tied with Sidney Crosby... in other words, these players aren't slouches who are randomly there, they are quality players). He has the 2nd-lowest PDO on the team, just 0.1% better than Justin Williams, and this is driven by an unusually low shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Again, that suggests that he's had bad puck luck, and we should expect his luck will turn and he will start picking up more points over time. Further to this, Eller has the weakest quality of linemates on the entire Washington team as well, meaning he is the guy on his line that is driving possession, not his wingers.

So what does this tell us? It tells us Eller isn't producing much, but it also tells us he's doing a stellar job at winning possession and shutting down the opposition. And when you play the 3rd line in Washington and you have Ovechkin and Oshie and Backstrom and Kuznetsov and Williams ahead of you, you're really being asked to keep the puck out of your own end and let the scorers score. It's the same issue as when he was here: a lot of what he does well isn't measured by traditional stats. I don't expect Eller to pot 20 goals from the 3rd line. But I do expect he'll finish the season with 12-14. And if he were given the chance to play the PP or play in the top 6, I think that number would certainly be higher. Shaw has more points here, but he's also had PP time, 50 minutes more of 5v5 time, a higher quality linemate, a lower personal Corsi, and a much higher PDO than Eller. All these things Shaw has had an easier go of it and that his numbers will regress slightly, while Eller's improve. I'd venture a guess that Shaw will still end up out-producing Eller offensively by year's end, but Eller in my view remains the more valuable player given what he brings to the center position and what a beast he is as a positive possession player.

I'll have to check and see, but I get a strong feeling that Eller's goal/primary assist rates over the last 2-3 seasons have scaled pretty linearly with his 5-on-5 ice time and quality of linemates, whereas the same isn't true of Shaw and Danault.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ True that Eller only has 3 points on the year, but he's still being used as a 3rd line player in Washington (i.e. his role hasn't changed any from the one he was given in Montreal). He's 8th among forwards in 5v5 time on ice per game. He has 0 minutes of PP time.

Despite this, he has the BEST Corsi on the team at 57.6%. For reference, that is a better Corsi than every single regular player on the Canadiens, and he sits 9th overall in the entire NHL in that regard (players ahead of him include Patrice Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, Jagr, Krug, Kopitar, Jordan Staal, and Arvidsson, and Eller himself is tied with Sidney Crosby... in other words, these players aren't slouches who are randomly there, they are quality players). He has the 2nd-lowest PDO on the team, just 0.1% better than Justin Williams, and this is driven by an unusually low shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Again, that suggests that he's had bad puck luck, and we should expect his luck will turn and he will start picking up more points over time. Further to this, Eller has the weakest quality of linemates on the entire Washington team as well, meaning he is the guy on his line that is driving possession, not his wingers.

So what does this tell us? It tells us Eller isn't producing much, but it also tells us he's doing a stellar job at winning possession and shutting down the opposition. And when you play the 3rd line in Washington and you have Ovechkin and Oshie and Backstrom and Kuznetsov and Williams ahead of you, you're really being asked to keep the puck out of your own end and let the scorers score. It's the same issue as when he was here: a lot of what he does well isn't measured by traditional stats. I don't expect Eller to pot 20 goals from the 3rd line. But I do expect he'll finish the season with 12-14. And if he were given the chance to play the PP or play in the top 6, I think that number would certainly be higher. Shaw has more points here, but he's also had PP time, 50 minutes more of 5v5 time, a higher quality linemate, a lower personal Corsi, and a much higher PDO than Eller. All these things Shaw has had an easier go of it and that his numbers will regress slightly, while Eller's improve. I'd venture a guess that Shaw will still end up out-producing Eller offensively by year's end, but Eller in my view remains the more valuable player given what he brings to the center position and what a beast he is as a positive possession player.

If at a total of 3 whole points this far into the season and he is 9th overall in the whole league in corsi doesn't that alone say something for  corsi? Stats? Just like +/- which all the advanced people say is unreliable this alone shows how all stats aren't absolute indicators in the game of hockey.

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8 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

If at a total of 3 whole points this far into the season and he is 9th overall in the whole league in corsi doesn't that alone say something for  corsi? Stats?

Like what? You're not making a persuasive assertion, here. If you're saying one player's primary 5-on-5 points count being low while having a high 5-on-5 Corsi For means Corsi is irrelevant, that's the definition of small sample size bias and trying to draw too broad an inference from anecdotal observations. For reference, 5-on-5 Corsi For per 60 does in fact have a relatively convincing positive correlation with 5-on-5 primary points, and around the quarter point of a season (right about now, for instance) it's been shown to have pretty good predictive power for the rest of the season. That doesn't mean Lars Eller is going to finish the season with more 5-on-5 points than Shaw or Danault, but it does mean the Capitals play better when he's on the ice than the Canadiens do when either of them are.

8 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

Just like +/- which all the advanced people say is unreliable this alone shows how all stats aren't absolute indicators in the game of hockey.

Are you ever going to stop repeating this identical strawman? No one here—no one—has ever said any statistic in hockey is an "absolute indicator". You're lying about what people have said, and it's impolite.

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Honestly on Eller I didn't like the whole series of trades that ended up with Shaw for Eller and a couple of less valuable draft picks and I see the adv stats and am impressed and intrigued but he was never a special possession player here relative to the rest of the team. He was a solid top 9 fwd, I think Shaw is close enough to a push that I won't get bent out of shape about it, even though I do prefer Eller by a tiny bit. I hope Lars succeeds and the good possession play translates into a hot streak and a 15 goal season. 

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7 hours ago, roy_133 said:

Honestly on Eller I didn't like the whole series of trades that ended up with Shaw for Eller and a couple of less valuable draft picks and I see the adv stats and am impressed and intrigued but he was never a special possession player here relative to the rest of the team. He was a solid top 9 fwd, I think Shaw is close enough to a push that I won't get bent out of shape about it, even though I do prefer Eller by a tiny bit. I hope Lars succeeds and the good possession play translates into a hot streak and a 15 goal season. 

FWIW, Eller has now moved up to 7th in the league in Corsi...

Agreed that when Eller was here, he wasn't as much of a dominant possession player, but his Corsi relative to his teammates has only been negative in 2 of his 8 seasons thus far. And part of that may have to do with the fact he's given more defensive zone starts than most. A lot of times I remember looking at boxscores and seeing Eller get way more D zone starts and yet still come out with a decent Corsi, often times better than players like DD or Weise or Galchenyuk, who had mainly O zone starts. I think undoubtedly Washington's system has helped his numbers relative to the system Michel Therrien had been running here the past few years, but even within Washington's system, again, his Corsi relative to his teammates is outstanding and his linemates' possession numbers away from him are worse than with him, so he's really the layer propelling his line.

Is Corsi everything? No. But it does predict for future success and if your line is the one getting most of the shot attempts and chances, the law of averages says that eventually that's going to pay off with more goals. Agreed with you that Shaw (at least the Shaw of the past 3 weeks) is pretty close in terms of what he's giving us and he'll likely end up with more points than Eller, but I still also like Eller more than Shaw.

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I didn't mean to imply he wasn't a fine possession player, just he fit in the mold of a top 9 fwd, which is what I think he is. I'm happy to see the adv stats be so good this year, despite the iffy traditional stats. I guess my point is that I don't think he's an all world, dominant, top 10 in the NHL possession player, at least it'll take more time to convince me. I still see him as a solid possession player, 3rd liner who can chip in offensively.

Yes he got a lot of D zone starts here, it's probably the usage that best suits his abilities TBH, I wish we still had him but I don't think it was a significant drop to Shaw.

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Well, we don't play until Friday, so may as well send them down for a game or 2. Also saves us some Cap dollars if i'm not mistaken. I'm not going to sweat the movement of a couple of farm guys up and down. If they get in the odd game of experience with us, then all the better.

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1 minute ago, H_T_L said:

Well, we don't play until Friday, so may as well send them down for a game or 2. Also saves us some Cap dollars if i'm not mistaken. I'm not going to sweat the movement of a couple of farm guys up and down. If they get in the odd game of experience with us, then all the better.

Here's the problem with that:

 

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11 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

,Here's the problem with that:

 

I actually see that as a good reason for sending them down. If they are waiver eligible it's likely the Habs don't want to lose them that way. Still gives us the option of using them as part of a trade down the road. As for Barberio,,,  he would fit into our bottom pairing easily enough, but we already have that covered, Unless an injury occurs from now until Feb when Patty returns,,, he's pretty much an emergency callup. Should that occur,,, then that will force our hand.

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56 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

I actually see that as a good reason for sending them down. If they are waiver eligible it's likely the Habs don't want to lose them that way. Still gives us the option of using them as part of a trade down the road. As for Barberio,,,  he would fit into our bottom pairing easily enough, but we already have that covered, Unless an injury occurs from now until Feb when Patty returns,,, he's pretty much an emergency callup. Should that occur,,, then that will force our hand.

If both are eligible in 11 more days on the roster and we aren't playing for a few days why keep them up and waste those days with days we aren't playing , seems like a smart move.

 

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Tough stretch to finish off the month

Jose and the Caps B2B with Washington on the road and likely Monty's game.

Ducks at home followed by another B2B with Minny at home and Columbus on the road. Looks like Monty might get the road game where he got slaughtered last time.

Then we finish the year on the road with a B2B vs Florida and Tampa and then on to Pittsburg.

Price is going to have to steal us a few points.

 

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I know they like to play Price in front of the home crowd, but wouldn't it make more since to play your better goalie on the second night when your team may need the extra help. Montoya gets the games where you don't get to control the match ups as well and the team is tired. I know home fans would get upset coming to the games and not seeing Price but as a fan wanting wins for the team maybe they'd understand.

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1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

I know they like to play Price in front of the home crowd, but wouldn't it make more since to play your better goalie on the second night when your team may need the extra help. Montoya gets the games where you don't get to control the match ups as well and the team is tired. I know home fans would get upset coming to the games and not seeing Price but as a fan wanting wins for the team maybe they'd understand.

There's an argument both ways, counter would be play your best goalie with your best lineup for your best chance to win and get 2 points in the bank going into a tough second game which then becomes gravy. Could definitely find yourself getting too cute, playing backup in game 1 and losing 4-3 and the tired lineup losing 1-0 or 2-1 the next day with Carey in type of thing.

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2 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

I know they like to play Price in front of the home crowd, but wouldn't it make more since to play your better goalie on the second night when your team may need the extra help. Montoya gets the games where you don't get to control the match ups as well and the team is tired. I know home fans would get upset coming to the games and not seeing Price but as a fan wanting wins for the team maybe they'd understand.

Play for the win with Price and play for the tie with Montoya.

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Eakin ran over Lundqvist behind the bet tonight and knocked his helmet off, sending him to the room for a concussion protocol. Eakin got 5 and a game, and everyone on twittee is saying he should be suspended. So...

- Question 1: how is it that Eakin can hit Lunqvist in the head and get tossed but there's nothing, not even a penalty for Krug doing the same thing to Shaw? If you look at the Lundvist play, the goalie also puts his head down at the last second, so we can't say that Shaw was the only one who "made himself vulnerable."

- Question 2: some might argue that it's because Henrik is a goalie. Could that be it? But wait, Carey Price has been bowled over repeatedly in the past week or so and the only penalty we got called for it was on a play where we ended up being short-handed. So obviously not all goalies are being protected.

Sickening to see the double standards flowing full force yet again here.

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38 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Eakin ran over Lundqvist behind the bet tonight and knocked his helmet off, sending him to the room for a concussion protocol. Eakin got 5 and a game, and everyone on twittee is saying he should be suspended. So...

- Question 1: how is it that Eakin can hit Lunqvist in the head and get tossed but there's nothing, not even a penalty for Krug doing the same thing to Shaw? If you look at the Lundvist play, the goalie also puts his head down at the last second, so we can't say that Shaw was the only one who "made himself vulnerable."

- Question 2: some might argue that it's because Henrik is a goalie. Could that be it? But wait, Carey Price has been bowled over repeatedly in the past week or so and the only penalty we got called for it was on a play where we ended up being short-handed. So obviously not all goalies are being protected.

Sickening to see the double standards flowing full force yet again here.

Seen that hit, and Eakin didn't even try top slow down. We've all seen penalties that were not called and when we compare them with some penalties that were called we fans (and players) get frustrated. There's no consistency in this league. 

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