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2016-17 State of the Habs


BigTed3

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what a new concept

http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/canadiens-notebook-claude-julien-runs-fast-paced-monday-practice-in-brossard

“And that’s what I’m looking for — puck-possession time and it’s not necessarily about analytics. It’s about puck-possession time. If we have the puck more than we don’t, our chances are much better of winning

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11 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

what a new concept

http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/canadiens-notebook-claude-julien-runs-fast-paced-monday-practice-in-brossard

“And that’s what I’m looking for — puck-possession time and it’s not necessarily about analytics. It’s about puck-possession time. If we have the puck more than we don’t, our chances are much better of winning

Good article. Puck possession vs puck luck lol. ^_^

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It is too bad the team did not respond to the coaching change in their first game after the break against a team which was eminently beatable ..... the Jets were a perfect set up to start off the Julien era on the right foot but instead they did almost a complete no show except for Carey, and the result was a horror show. They now play the two New York teams and then go into Toronto on Saturday. Then, they go to New Jersey on Monday and come home for the second game on a back to back on Tuesday night  against Columbus.

I believe the Rangers are overrated but they are far better than the way the Habs are playing so it shouldn't be close at Madison Square. The Islanders are playing well under their new coach and in a dog fight for the playoffs so I fully expect a loss to them at home. Then we go to Toronto for the Saturday night on Elm Street where I expect things to get really embarrassing for the boys ....... That will make it ZIP for 4 under Julien heading into the doubleheader with the Devils and the Blue Jackets. The NJ game may be their only chance for points in this 5 game run as I fully expect them to get creamed in the Tuesday night debacle with the Blue Jackets. If I am right and they are 1 - 5 under CJ after these games they will most definitely not be in first place and will be on the verge of being knocked out of the playoffs.

If I am right, the decision management must then make will be difficult to sell to the long suffering faithful but it is quite possible that the team should be a seller at the deadline and not a buyer. Practically, there probably won't be a will or time to make this transition and I am sure Bergevin will desperately be trying to package a deal to salvage his career beyond the end of this season.  However, if they really go 1 and 4 over the next 5 games then I can fairly easily predict that they are done for this season :7059:

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4 hours ago, Regis22 said:

what a new concept

http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/canadiens-notebook-claude-julien-runs-fast-paced-monday-practice-in-brossard

“And that’s what I’m looking for — puck-possession time and it’s not necessarily about analytics. It’s about puck-possession time. If we have the puck more than we don’t, our chances are much better of winning

"It’s about puck-possession time"

Yes - actual possession!    Not just Corsi.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, rocketbelifleur said:

"It’s about puck-possession time"

Yes - actual possession!    Not just Corsi.

It's encouraging to hear a coach wants to win the possession battle and Julien clearly studies advanced statistics based on some of the things he's talked about. He also knows how to match lines. But in reply to the Cors vs. puck possession thing, I'd ask you this: isn't Corsi just an indirect measurement of possession? If you have lots of possession, then you'd think the goal of having the puck would be to bring it up ice and make attempts at putting the puck on net (which is what Corsi measures). And if you're the team that has the puck in your own end and is just passing it back and forth and not generating shot attempts, then I'd also ask whether that type of possession matters very much...

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25 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

It's encouraging to hear a coach wants to win the possession battle and Julien clearly studies advanced statistics based on some of the things he's talked about. He also knows how to match lines. But in reply to the Cors vs. puck possession thing, I'd ask you this: isn't Corsi just an indirect measurement of possession? If you have lots of possession, then you'd think the goal of having the puck would be to bring it up ice and make attempts at putting the puck on net (which is what Corsi measures). And if you're the team that has the puck in your own end and is just passing it back and forth and not generating shot attempts, then I'd also ask whether that type of possession matters very much...

I have no doubt that Corsi aligns with possession most of the time, but, I think, it can be misleading. Isn't that's why Julien says: " puck-possession time and it’s not necessarily about analytics "?

I don't know why they don't track actual possession (like soccer does - I believe). Maybe it's too difficult to do.

 

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1 hour ago, rocketbelifleur said:

I have no doubt that Corsi aligns with possession most of the time, but, I think, it can be misleading. Isn't that's why Julien says: " puck-possession time and it’s not necessarily about analytics "?

I don't know why they don't track actual possession (like soccer does - I believe). Maybe it's too difficult to do.

 

I think there are places that track possession and there are definitely places that track the amount of time the puck spends in each zone.

WRT Julien, we know he uses analytics. He's already talked about Corsi and he's talked about scoring chance ratios and he's talked about successful zone entry and exit rates. My interpretation of the comment he made was basically his saying whether you subscribe to analytics and Corsi or not, hopefully you can appreciate that having the puck is a good thing. I think he's reinforcing that he wants the team to look at keeping possession and not simply dumping the puck out of the D zone and into the O zone, as Therrien would try to coach us to do.

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Hi BigTed3,

I'm new here and don't want to start off on the wrong foot. I've been following this forum for a year (more, actually) and I've found myself agreeing with the vast majority of your posts.

I guess my question here is: How reliable is Corsi as an indicator of possession? I've been wondering that for a while and thought that the above statement by Julien was an indication that he was kind of separating the two. Maybe your interpretation is right, but I'll still be wondering.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, rocketbelifleur said:

Hi BigTed3,

I'm new here and don't want to start off on the wrong foot. I've been following this forum for a year (more, actually) and I've found myself agreeing with the vast majority of your posts.

I guess my question here is: How reliable is Corsi as an indicator of possession? I've been wondering that for a while and thought that the above statement by Julien was an indication that he was kind of separating the two. Maybe your interpretation is right, but I'll still be wondering.

Hi Rocket, glad that you joined and started posting. Just jump right in and share your thoughts, no need to worry about agreeing with anyone!

Your question is a good one, and to be honest, I don't know the answer and don't know if anyone really does. I think the real question when you're looking for something to measure is does it translate into anything? Does it predict for future success? People have done work showing that Corsi is a predictor of future team success, so it has value. I don't know if time of puck possession does, although one could venture a guess that the more you have the puck, the better your odds are so long as you are turning that possession into more chances for than against (which is where Corsi comes in).

I think Julien's intentions of trying to hold onto the puck more are good. Try to limit cheap turnovers on dump-outs and dump-ins. In theory, the more you have the puck, the more you should be able to turn it into shot attempts and shots and scoring chances. I think he's right that puck possession doesn't necessarily translate into what analytics measures even though it should. But what's more important than just possession to me is meaningful possession, meaning you have to do something with it. And that's where Corsi and Fenwick and so on come in.

 

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Welcome to the playoffs. 6 out of 22 will have one sided consequence. Otherwise I expect bruising, burning battles the rest of the way which includes possible injuries of course. It's going to wipe us out I would guess. I suspect we make it and get knocked out early.

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Who have been our best defencemen over the past month or two? IMO in order it's

1. Markov

2. Petry

3. Beaulieu

4. Pateryn

5. Weber

6. Nesterov

7. Emelin

Just can't have the two guys getting the most ice time being your 5th and 7th best D men. That pairing is the biggest thing killing Habs right now.

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I said at the beginning of the year I thought the D was weak and I think it still is

There is no stud , mobile , D man capable of carrying the puck out of the zone . Of course that's probably because the previous coach's system askrd the D men to chip  it out , there was no skill required . Fall back , somehow get the puck after you've been hemmed in your own zone  and chip it off the boards .

I think the D group is set back a couple of years because of " that " trade that happened last summer

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So this is MB's team . He made a bunch of player changes in the summer, stuck with the same coach and got the same results .

The one change he should have made last year he waited until now to make - change the coach .

And now this team has to get their act together or they are going to miss the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row.

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If we look at the roster that MB has built:

- Pacioretty, Gallagher, Emelin, Markov, Price, Beaulieu, Pateryn, Desharnais, Plekanec were inherited

- Galchenyuk, Lehkonen, McCarron drafted by Trevor Timmins, with Galchenyuk's 3rd overall slot handed to him on a silver platter when MB started

- Byron, Mitchell, Montoya have been useful additions but they are limited role players with minimal impact. Flynn pick-up hasn't really helped in any way.

- Danault was been a very pleasant surprise but again, is ideally a 3rd line player, not a core one

- Weber-Subban trade and Eller-Shaw switch were both awful moves and affected key components of the roster

- Only two stand-out moves still on roster are Radulov and Petry

- Many players have been shipped out for off-ice or personality issues (Subban, PAP, Briere, Thomas, Kristo, Kassian, Semin, DSP, etc.) and many younger players have failed to develop or not been given a shot (Tinordi, Hudon, Fucale, DLR, Leblanc, Scherbak, Nash, Dietz, etc.) all in favor of giving opportunity to scrubs/grinders (Mike Brown, Bouillon, Murray, Allen, Lessio, Farnham, Flynn, Weise, Prust, Moen, etc.).

At this point, there just really isn't much to show for Bergevin's work, and the positives of bringing in Petry and Radulov have to be weighed against the signature trade of losing a Norris winner in his prime for an over-the-hill veteran bordering on being a powerplay specialist at this point and who's on a worse contract to boot. Bergevin has been hesitant to do anything big to add to the core of the team, and his only move to change the make-up of the core laterally ended up being a disastrous trade. It's time MB steps up and makes this team better. It's time he stops telling us his job is too hard. After all, it's on Marc Bergevin.

 

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51 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Has there been a player drafted under MB's regime who made the big club and is an impact player

per

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00006929.html

the only one is AG and they don't know if he's a C or W .

 

After 5 years you'd think they would know. 

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http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/about-last-night-islanders-beat-canadiens-3-0

 

How bad?

• Five straight losses at the Bell Centre – a building that, as recently as the first couple months of the season,  was an impregnable fortress.

• An “attack” that has produced 30 goals in its last 17 games.

• A two-point Adams Division lead over the surging Ottawa Senators, who have three games in hand.

• A four-point lead over the surging Leafs, who have a game in hand … and play host to the Canadiens at the Air Canada Centre Saturday night.

• Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Radulov – two of the Canadiens’ most gifted offensive players – combined for ZERO shots-on-goal against the Islanders. And their ineptitude was not unique: Brendan Gallagher didn’t have a SoG. Neither did Paul Byron.

• Shea Weber had SIX of the Canadiens’ 24 shots. Weber was minus-2 on the game, as were Radulov, Max Pacioretty, Artturi Lehkonen and Andrei Markov. Weber had ONE hit, while Galchenyuk and Andrew Shaw each had five.

Awful.

 

.......................Fearless prediction: It ain’t gonna be pretty at the ACC

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3 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

http://www.hockeyinsideout.com/news/about-last-night-islanders-beat-canadiens-3-0

 

How bad?

• Five straight losses at the Bell Centre – a building that, as recently as the first couple months of the season,  was an impregnable fortress.

• An “attack” that has produced 30 goals in its last 17 games.

• A two-point Adams Division lead over the surging Ottawa Senators, who have three games in hand.

• A four-point lead over the surging Leafs, who have a game in hand … and play host to the Canadiens at the Air Canada Centre Saturday night.

• Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Radulov – two of the Canadiens’ most gifted offensive players – combined for ZERO shots-on-goal against the Islanders. And their ineptitude was not unique: Brendan Gallagher didn’t have a SoG. Neither did Paul Byron.

• Shea Weber had SIX of the Canadiens’ 24 shots. Weber was minus-2 on the game, as were Radulov, Max Pacioretty, Artturi Lehkonen and Andrei Markov. Weber had ONE hit, while Galchenyuk and Andrew Shaw each had five.

Awful.

 

.......................Fearless prediction: It ain’t gonna be pretty at the ACC

You forgot one,,,, 4 shutouts in the last 8 games. 

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Now that bad coaching has been ruled out, the spotlight is on the players. Attitude, desire and hunger. No point telling the post-game media they need to clean up on mistakes, but keep lapsing on the ice.

I still feel a complete rebuild around the young nucleus is the only hope. The current roster, particularly the veteran core, is simply too "tainted" with the decade long culture of satisfaction with mediocrity.  Yes, I'm including even Pacioretty, Markov and Price. Plekanec and Emelin have long become complacent. 

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