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Draft Lottery Odds


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This year’s NHL draft lottery has a very different dynamic to it. We will see the début of the top three spots all determined by a bounce of some lottery balls. With that comes some intriguing possibilities for outcomes.

Just because you finish in 30th doesn’t guarantee you a spot in the top three. In fact, the chances of the last place team picking fourth is almost a coin flip at 47.5%. Even though last place has the best odds of landing the top pick at 20%, more often than not, someone below jumps up and steals the pick from them.

These are the odds of getting the #1 pick in this years draft with the last number being games remaining. It's the most updated i've come across, however it's one or two games behind. Please feel free to post the most up to date odds if you can find them.

Edmonton Oilers 20.0% 67 3

Toronto Maple Leafs 13.5% 67 6

Vancouver Canucks 11.5% 67 6

Columbus Blue Jackets 9.5% 68 6

Winnipeg Jets 8.5% 69 5

Calgary Flames 7.5% 70 5

Buffalo Sabres 6.5% 73 5

Arizona Coyotes 6.0% 75 6

Montreal Canadiens 5.0% 76 5

Ottawa Senators 3.5% 79 5

Carolina Hurricanes 3.0% 82 5

New Jersey Devils 2.5% 82 5

Colorado Avalanche 2.0% 82 5

Detroit Red Wings 1.0% 87

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Apr. 3, 9:10 AM:


1.Edmonton Oilers - 20 per cent

2.Toronto Maple Leafs - 13.5 per cent

3.Columbus Blue Jackets - 11.5 per cent

4.Winnipeg Jets - 9.5 per cent

5.Vancouver Canucks - 8.5 per cent

6.Calgary Flames- 7.5 per cent

7.Buffalo Sabres - 6.5 per cent

8.Arizona Coyotes - 6 per cent

9.Montreal Canadiens - 5 per cent

10.Ottawa Senators - 3.5 per cent

11.New Jersey Devils - 3 per cent

12.Colorado Avalanche- 2.5 per cent

13.Carolina Hurricanes - 2 per cent

14.Boston Bruins - 1 per cent
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What are the odds Habs pick up a top 3 pick? Is it ~15% or am I doing the math wrong? I know it partially depends on who wins the first and then who wins the second, but is it as simple as just adding it up?

I don't know why but I got a good feeling about have getting one of those picks

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What are the odds Habs pick up a top 3 pick? Is it ~15% or am I doing the math wrong? I know it partially depends on who wins the first and then who wins the second, but is it as simple as just adding it up?

I don't know why but I got a good feeling about have getting one of those picks

It would be more than 15% in our current spot. It's 5% of winning the 1st spot, but the % chance of winning the 2nd overall pick changes and as you said, it changes by an amount that depends on who won the 1st overall choice. If someone like Edm or Tor won the 1st pick, our odds of winning the 2nd go up quite a bit. If a lower-ranked team sneaks up and wins the 1st, our odds of the 2nd go up only slightly. Overall, we probably have a 16-18% chance of a top 3 choice.

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It would be more than 15% in our current spot. It's 5% of winning the 1st spot, but the % chance of winning the 2nd overall pick changes and as you said, it changes by an amount that depends on who won the 1st overall choice. If someone like Edm or Tor won the 1st pick, our odds of winning the 2nd go up quite a bit. If a lower-ranked team sneaks up and wins the 1st, our odds of the 2nd go up only slightly. Overall, we probably have a 16-18% chance of a top 3 choice.

Those aren't bad odds at all *fingers crossed* An immediate top 6 player if did win even just the 3rd overall pick

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Those aren't bad odds at all *fingers crossed* An immediate top 6 player if did win even just the 3rd overall pick

I would estimate a 15-20% chance of moving up, a 40-50% of moving down and a 30-40% chance that we actually pick where we end up ranked. It's pretty unlikely we fall 3 spots, but definitely possible to fall 1-2 spots if we don't win one of the top 3 ourselves.

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1.Toronto Maple Leafs - 20 per cent

2.Edmonton Oilers - 13.5 per cent

3.Vancouver Canucks - 11.5 per cent

4.Columbus Blue Jackets - 9.5 per cent

5.Calgary Flames - 8.5 per cent

6.Winnipeg Jets - 7.5 per cent

7.Arizona Coyotes - 6.5 per cent

8.Buffalo Sabres - 6 per cent

9.Montreal Canadiens - 5.5 per cent

10.Colorado Avalanche - 3.5 per cent

11.New Jersey Devils - 3 per cent

12.Ottawa Senators - 2.5 per cent

13.Carolina Hurricanes - 2 per cent

14.Boston Bruins - 1 per cent

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