GAME 14 - Kings @ Habs

[Flying_Lion]

1 minute ago, habs_93 said:

Indeed. But that's why I use adjusted 5-on-5 for the graph, to minimize the influence of score effects as much as possible. It's part of why the first period looked and "looked" so good—we just kept pushing no matter what, even when we took the lead.

It is!

I get the idea behind it but how exactly does one "adjust" for 5-on-5? ... probably not the best place to ask, but I've always wondered.

[kinot-1]

2 minutes ago, Flying_Lion said:

I get the idea behind it but how exactly does one "adjust" for 5-on-5? ... probably not the best place to ask, but I've always wondered.

When you ask 93,,, sometimes it's best not to know his answer. 

 

Hanley had 9:14 TOI. so far. 

[HabsRuleForever]

3 minutes ago, kinot-1 said:

Any guesses on how many PKs we'll be on in the 3rd? 

Yes

[vegasrick]

2 minutes ago, Flying_Lion said:

I get the idea behind it but how exactly does one "adjust" for 5-on-5? ... probably not the best place to ask, but I've always wondered.

It's a complex formula involving Quantum Therriens and the Bettman Theorem.  Better not to know.  

[habs_93]

4 minutes ago, Flying_Lion said:

I get the idea behind it but how exactly does one "adjust" for 5-on-5? ... probably not the best place to ask, but I've always wondered.

30,000 feet explanation:

Smarter, more talented people than I have worked out the probabilities that a team in the NHL will be at one of the seven score states (>= -3, -2, -1, Tied, +1, +2, <= 3). Therefor, we can weigh the events which happen at a certain score state based on the probability that the home/away team would produce them at that level.

Here's a blog post by the guy whose formula I've been graciously allowed to use: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/11/13/adjusted-possession-measures/

[kinot-1]

Just now, HabsRuleForever said:

Yes

Well??????????? Ya keeping them to yourself?  

[kinot-1]

Just now, habs_93 said:

30,000 feet explanation:

Smarter, more talented people than I have worked out the probabilities that a team in the NHL will be at one of the eight score states (>= -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, <= 3). Therefor, we can weigh the events which happen at a certain score state based on the probability that the home/away team would produce them at that level.

Here's a blog post by the guy whose formula I've been graciously allowed to use: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/11/13/adjusted-possession-measures/

Told ya so, FL. 

[rkgoalie]

2 minutes ago, HabsRuleForever said:

Yes

I will go with 4

[HabsRuleForever]

Just now, kinot-1 said:

Well??????????? Ya keeping them to yourself?  

No 

[vegasrick]

5 minutes ago, kinot-1 said:

Any guesses on how many PKs we'll be on in the 3rd? 

1. At least two

2. More than they need.

3. Until the game is tied.

4. 

[habs_93]

And actually, that's the wrong blog post but it's a good one. Here's the one I was thinking of, which goes into some detail on the formula: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/senstats

[Eyez]

7 minutes ago, kinot-1 said:

Any guesses on how many PKs we'll be on in the 3rd? 

None.... didn't we tell you ?

 

he is in Nashville now ... .try to keep up Kinot

[H_T_L]

We've already killed 2 calls against us. I expect we'll get one for us soon. Then we'll see them get a bunch.

[kinot-1]

1 minute ago, Eyez said:

None.... didn't we tell you ?

 

he is in Nashville now ... .try to keep up Kinot

No you didn't tell me,,,, you better not be lying to me,,, Karma will getcha, ya know. 

 

Why was I not notified? I say conspiracy to keep important information from me. 

[Flying_Lion]

5 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

30,000 feet explanation:

Smarter, more talented people than I have worked out the probabilities that a team in the NHL will be at one of the seven score states (>= -3, -2, -1, Tied, +1, +2, <= 3). Therefor, we can weigh the events which happen at a certain score state based on the probability that the home/away team would produce them at that level.

Here's a blog post by the guy whose formula I've been graciously allowed to use: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/11/13/adjusted-possession-measures/

 

4 minutes ago, kinot-1 said:

Told ya so, FL. 

I think I actually get it on some very basic level, had to read it over and over again for a few minutes, but then I tried to wrap my head around the first few paragraphs of that link and went to the fridge.

[vegasrick]

Just now, kinot-1 said:

Why was I not notified? I say conspiracy to keep important information from me. 

By the way, don't forget to vote on November 8.  

[vegasrick]

Habs will be shorthanded soon.  

[Flying_Lion]

Another bullet dodged.

And then Emelin goes down.

[BigTed3]

8 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

If tonight is the turning point, and we play like this more often than we play like we have in the last half decade, there's a lot to be happy abou;. There's no real tangible reason why it can't be, either.

That said, because of a few self-inflicted and "intangible" reasons, I doubt it will be.

If you can out-play and out-possess a Corsi juggernaut like LA, then you should theoretically be able to do that to any other team as well. The Habs have the skill and speed to be able to do it, and for the most part it's been Therrien standing in the way of this type of success with his "grit first" and "we must play DD the most at all cost" and "rah rah for Murray and Bouillon and Weise." He's still got 4th liners up and down the line-up but at least now they're guys with enough speed that they don't hurt us as much (and in fact are actually playing well, though I have my doubts that any of Byron, Danault, or Mitchell will stay at current pace and score 25 goals a year.)

[H_T_L]

Anybody get the feeling this is going to be a longggggg period??

[Habs=stanleycup]

Just now, vegasrick said:

Habs will be shorthanded soon.  

The Bettman factor

[habs_93]

Just now, Flying_Lion said:

I think I actually get it on some very basic level, had to read it over and over again for a few minutes, but then I tried to wrap my head around the first few paragraphs of that link and went to the fridge.

Basically, if you're interested in exactly how a game went down as a sort of sports historical sense, all situations is what you want to look at it. You can tell exactly what happened when.

I'm not so interested in that. We're watching the game, after all. Adjusted 5-on-5 is a way to see into the game and maybe project a bit into the future.

 

Also, Dustin Brown is a scumbag.

[BigTed3]

Just now, Flying_Lion said:

Another bullet dodged.

And then Emelin goes down.

Dirty hit from behind by Dustin Brown. Should have been a penalty, maybe a major. Who was just saying they wanted him here? Not me. Total scumbag.

[kinot-1]

1 minute ago, vegasrick said:

By the way, don't forget to vote on November 8.  

There's a write in vote,,,, I'll vote for you, Rick. 

[HabsRuleForever]

2 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Anybody get the feeling this is going to be a longggggg period??

At least 20 minutes.