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So this is where we stand (and we'll assume Ott doesn't win their last two in ROW):

- If the Habs lose to Toronto in regulation, we finish 4th last unless Arizona puts up a win in regulation or OT against Anaheim

- If we lose in OT/SO... we still do not pass Vancouver, so the highest we could do is 5th last. We would need Det to pick up at least 1 point against the Isles to re-pass us and still need Ari to win in regulation or OT to pass us too. So we'd finish somewhere between 3rd and 5th last.

- If we win (regardless of whether ROW or SO)... Arizona could no longer catch us, so we'd be looking at a finish between 4th and 6th last. We would need Vancouver to pick up at least 1 point to pass us and Detroit to pick up 2 (in any type of win) to pass us as well.

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11 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

"If" the Habs lose against TO, and AZ wins at home with the ducks, Habs will get the 3rd draft pick. Habs are 3-6-1 in their last 10 GP. AZ  is 6-3-1 in thier last 10 GP. 

I think you mean the Habs will have the 3rd best odds at the #1 overall pick.

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On 4/4/2018 at 10:10 AM, Manatee-X said:

Not saying that you're wrong, but we should probably find that 1a centre before we start worrying about b, c and d :P

But I think finding that 1a, 1b, 1c, is by giving guys like: Poehling, Evans, Ikonen every chance in training camp to  stick with the team.  Instead of sinking 12 mil into one player, try and build from within.

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"The Tank & Draft" sounds like the name of a tavern/pub chain.

Originated in Toronto, now also with outlets in Edmonton - coming to a Montreal location near you, sometime soon.

 

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Noticed the Red Wings placed goalie Jared Coreau on waivers today. So basically, he got into 6 games, went 0-5, posted an 0.859 save percentage and a 4.35 GAA. It seems the Wings simply used him to tank against us twice and that was that. Cheap tactic from Detroit. It would be like us playing Fucale every time we played the Wings...

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37 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Noticed the Red Wings placed goalie Jared Coreau on waivers today. So basically, he got into 6 games, went 0-5, posted an 0.859 save percentage and a 4.35 GAA. It seems the Wings simply used him to tank against us twice and that was that. Cheap tactic from Detroit. It would be like us playing Fucale every time we played the Wings...

Hopefully nhl or hockey lords intervene with these tactics and they drop 3 places 

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4 hours ago, booboo_mtl said:

Hopefully nhl or hockey lords intervene with these tactics and they drop 3 places 

He has been the Griffons #1 goalie and when Marzek got traded they wanted to see how ready he was for future planning. He was 3rd on their depth list.

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5 hours ago, rocketbelifleur said:

"The Tank & Draft" sounds like the name of a tavern/pub chain.

Originated in Toronto, now also with outlets in Edmonton - coming to a Montreal location near you, sometime soon.

 

Love the pub name, but does it count as a tank when the GM thinks he's building a cup contender?

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Don't know if this has been posted or fully explained, but here, from NHL.com, is the explanation for the 15 non-playoff teams (which cleared things up for me):

"NEW YORK -- The National Hockey League announced today the odds for the 2018 NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held Saturday, April 28 in Toronto.

The 2018 NHL Draft Lottery will consist of three drawings: the 1st Lottery Draw will determine the club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery Draw will determine the club selecting second overall, and the 3rd Lottery Draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

The 15 clubs that do not qualify for the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, or the clubs that have acquired the first-round picks of those non-playoff clubs, will participate in the 2018 NHL Draft Lottery.

 

Non-Playoff Team (Fewest Points to Most), 2018 Odds, 2017 Odds*, 2015 & 2016 Odds

1, 18.5%, 18.0%, 20.0%

2, 13.5%, 12.1%, 13.5%

3, 11.5%, 10.3%, 11.5%

4, 9.5%, 10.3%, 9.5%

5, 8.5%, 8.5%, 8.5%

6, 7.5%, 7.6%, 7.5%

7, 6.5%, 6.7%, 6.5%

8, 6.0%, 5.8%, 6.0%

9, 5.0%, 5.4%, 5.0%

10, 3.5%, 4.5%, 3.5%

11, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.0%

12, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.5%

13, 2.0%, 2.2%, 2.0%

14, 1.5%, 1.8%, 1.0%

15, 1.0%, 0.9%

* Expansion Vegas Golden Knights received same odds as team finishing regular season in 28th place

The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the 1st Lottery Draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery Draw, based on which club wins the 2nd Lottery Draw.

The 12 clubs not selected in the 2018 NHL Draft Lottery will be assigned 2018 NHL Draft selections 4 through 15, in inverse order of regular-season points."

That last line is what I've been missing.

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9 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said:

Love the pub name, but does it count as a tank when the GM thinks he's building a cup contender?

The best reason yet, for someone ruining my little joke.   

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

So Habs officially have 9.5% chance of 1st overall, 9.6% 2nd, and 9.7% 3rd...

Their 2nd round picks will be numbers 35, 38, 56, and 57.

Does this mean we have a roughly 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick?

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36 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Does this mean we have a roughly 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick?

I think it depends on who wins the first, and the second, because our odds o up after each pick. 

Does it really matter? If we don't get #1, I'm not sure I care too much, even if we fall to 7

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2 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

Does this mean we have a roughly 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick?

 

1 hour ago, habsisme said:

I think it depends on who wins the first, and the second, because our odds o up after each pick. 

Does it really matter? If we don't get #1, I'm not sure I care too much, even if we fall to 7

We have a 9.5 + 9.6 + 9.7% = 28.8% chance of winning one of the three lotteries.

We have 26.1% odds of drafting 5th, 34.0% of 6th, 8.3% of 7th, and only 2.8% chance of 4th. So we almost certainly won't end up where we started. The only way that happens is if the first three teams (Buf, Ott, and Ari in some order) win the three lotteries, which is not a likely scenario. So our most likely selection spot is 6th...

As habsisme said, the odds of 2nd and 3rd will vary depending on who wins the first lottery. If Buf wins the 1st one, our odds of moving up in the 2nd and 3rd lotteries goes up, because all of Buffalo's odds are no longer in play after that. If a team behind us leapfrogs us for the #1 pick, our odds of #2 and #3 are lower than 9%. But all in all, the numbers I gave you are the balance of all the possible combinations.

To put things in perspective though, if we had lost one of our games to Ottawa in regulation instead of winning it in regulation, we'd be 2nd last and looking at much better odds. That's how poor our team was this year, that one single game result being flipped would have left us 2nd last..

As it stands, we know we'll have a top 7 pick for sure. Dahlin is 1. If you end up 2-4, it's one of Zvechnikov, Zadina, or Tkachuk, and I don't think we should try to bypass them just because they're wingers. You draft BPA. The real question is what we do if we fall to the 5-7 range. There's a group of 4-5 D men sitting there... Bouchard, Dobson, Hughes, Boqvist, etc. and then maybe a couple of European centers/forwards whom you could reach for. I'm personally of the opinion that you don't reach for a center just for positional value though, you take BPA and figure the rest out later. If the Habs think they can get a center a few spots lower and want to trade out to acquire another asset, that's a different story (e.g. Edm deals #9 and Darnell Nurse to us for #6 or so on). But personally, I'd rather stay where we are, build through the draft, and take the BPA.

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Agree on BPA. Positioning drafting makes more sense in a sport like football where players are expected to make the team immediately, there are more positions, and short careers.

In hockey, it's simply too hard to tell what you'll need in 3-5 years when most draft picks are expected to make an impact, and with only 6 positions with some fungibility between some of them, you can usually make imbalances work and use UFAs and trades to fill some holes.  We look pretty deep at wing right now, but in 2 years both Galchenyk and Pacioretty could be gone, and the rest of that "depth" is more at the 2nd-3rd line level, we could easily be in need of another top-line winger in a couple seasons.

With that said the definition of "best" needs to account for the position. If a 90 point center is considered more valuable than a 100 point winger, the definition of "best" should account for that.

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I mostly agree but I will say that our positions of need are also more important positions generally speaking. We don't just need a quarterback  (center) they are also the most important players in the game. Wingers and goalies just don't have the same impact on the game and they are not hard to find. Puck moving defenseman and elite 2 way centers, they barely exist 

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

As it stands, we know we'll have a top 7 pick for sure. Dahlin is 1. If you end up 2-4, it's one of Zvechnikov, Zadina, or Tkachuk, and I don't think we should try to bypass them just because they're wingers. You draft BPA. The real question is what we do if we fall to the 5-7 range. There's a group of 4-5 D men sitting there... Bouchard, Dobson, Hughes, Boqvist, etc. and then maybe a couple of European centers/forwards whom you could reach for. I'm personally of the opinion that you don't reach for a center just for positional value though, you take BPA and figure the rest out later. If the Habs think they can get a center a few spots lower and want to trade out to acquire another asset, that's a different story (e.g. Edm deals #9 and Darnell Nurse to us for #6 or so on). But personally, I'd rather stay where we are, build through the draft, and take the BPA.

Agree.   If I were gm my plan would be:  

If my pick is #1: Dahlin

If my pick is 2-4: one of the top end wingers

If my pick is #5-6 then Id either pick BPA or may a strong play for a draft-down:  Edmonton's 9th and Nurse for our pick. That would allow us to draft one of the top centres in this year's draft (Projected to be a top end two way guy) and also get another player out of it. 

 

My guess is we'll mess it up, try to play Zadina at centre and then trade him for Lucic in a couple of years.  Maybe then MB will be on the hot seat?   Ps, the rangers fired Vignault today... hint hint Geoff. 

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

I mostly agree but I will say that our positions of need are also more important positions generally speaking. We don't just need a quarterback  (center) they are also the most important players in the game. Wingers and goalies just don't have the same impact on the game and they are not hard to find. Puck moving defenseman and elite 2 way centers, they barely exist 

That's what I mean by adjusting the definition of "best". If a certain position is more valuable or harder to find, you can certainly rank that player higher. Perhaps it would be good to replace "best" with "most valuable".

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