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Free Agent Frenzy

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Graeme-1 All-Star / Super vedette

Graeme-1

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

Might be one of those cases where he's a #1 C in the sense of "one of the best 31 centers in the league" but on a cup-contending team he's going to be a drag in that role (so either you need to be really strong elsewhere to make up for it, or ideally make him the #2).

Just looked at the Sportsnet article, and while I agree with the broader point there's an argument he's top-20, ranking him #8 seems way too high. I get he's well-rounded and consistent, and a better player than numbers alone suggest, but still his career high is 28 goals and 64 points after 9 seasons.

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ChiLla Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

ChiLla

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I like O'Reilly (quite a lot actually) but I agree that he's not a clear-cut #1C you should build your team around. He's perfect in a situation where you already have a strong #1 guy and need to complement that player to spread out offense, but he's not going to turn the Habs into a contender.

He's a better Tomas Plekanec in his prime years IMO and I'm glad we didn't give up any assets to acquire him, it simply doesn't make sense in our situation.

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Habs_Hockey_Nutz Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

Habs_Hockey_Nutz

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The Best of the Rest...

Left wings

    James Neal
    Rick Nash
    Patrick Maroon
    Mike Cammalleri
    Scott Hartnell
    Jason Chimera
    Scottie Upshall
    Tyler Ennis
    Jussi Jokinen
    Benoit Pouliot

Centers

    Joe Thornton
    Antoine Vermette
    Brad Richardson
    Mark Letestu
    Matt Stajan
    Jannik Hansen
    Daniel Winnik
    Shawn Matthias
    Dominic Moore
    Brian Gibbons

Right wings

    Anthony Duclair
    Kris Versteeg
    Alex Burrows
    Nail Yakupov
    Joel Ward
    Drew Stafford
    Lee Stempniak
    Alex Chiasson
    Tommy Wingels
    Chris Stewart

Defense

    Toby Enstrom
    Calvin de Haan
    Brooks Orpik
    Luca Sbisa
    Johnny Oduya
    Paul Martin
    Alexei Emelin
    Dan Hamhuis
    Kevin Bieksa
    Jason Garrison

Goaltenders

    Robin Lehner
    Kari Lehtonen
    Steve Mason
    Ondrej Pavelec
    Jeff Glass

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BigTed3 Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

BigTed3

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9 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

I agree with all the reasoning, but to what extent is it counter-balanced by the fact he's going to be 33 this summer and could become a cap headache (basically takes 7.8 million of cap space until he decides it's time to retire)? Toronto could be especially worried about that cap hit since it could mean losing a good player in a few years.

Absolutely, the age factor is a thing. But to a win-now team like Toronto, I think you tend to overlook that more. Weber is still a #1 D man in the league right now, even if he's not the player he once was. He fits their need for a top-pairing right-handed defenceman who can play the PP. He's Mike Babcock's exact type of player, and they have a history together. I just think there are a lot of things that play into making this a great fit for them.

The other thing is that with the cap going up and the new hits we're seeing in the past little while, 7.8M is becoming more of a reasonable contract. People laughed at Subban's 9M a few years ago, but now look at an equivalent player in Doughty getting 11M for the next 8 years (in addition to the next one that he was already signed for), whereas the Preds could be out of their contract in Subban's early 30's. Doughty will be paid more money than Subban got per year for almost a decade longer. Tavares just got 11M from Toronto. Hedman's at 7.8M. Carlson's at 8M. OEL is at 8.25M. Karlsson will probably clock in above the 11M that Doughty signed for.

If the Leafs want a true top-pairing righty, first off, it'll be difficult to find a guy. How many top pairing D men hit the market this year? None. Other than Karlsson, most of next year's expected free agent crop have already been re-signed, and Karlsson might be an exception just because of how dumb ownership is in Ottawa to drive players out. So Toronto is almost certainly going to have to trade for a guy if they want him in the next two years. Sure, if they were looking to win in 3-5 years, Weber isn't the man. But they need to win now. They have the window. Nylander is expendable and a player they probably can't afford to pay (if you give him 5M instead of giving Weber 7.8, that doesn't leave you much left over to fetch a quality D man). A late 1st rounder next year and a player like Liljegren or Sandin aren't going to make an impact on their ability to win a Cup in the next two years. So if Toronto wants to do nothing and fight it out with Bos or Tampa to even get out of the division, fine. If they want to be proactive and be the clearcut favorite, I think it makes sense for them to go all in and shore up their D. I think they'd be hard-pressed to find a guy who meets their criteria now that another team would be willing to give up for futures at this point in the year. No one else is throwing in the towel on the current season and giving up their #1 D man (again except for Ottawa and their "take Bobby Ryan too" ask). i really do believe that a Weber for Nylander/1st/prospect trade is a deal that benefits both teams immensely, simply because the aims of each team are so different and so complementary.

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Regis22 Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

Regis22

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6 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

Just looked at the Sportsnet article, and while I agree with the broader point there's an argument he's top-20, ranking him #8 seems way too high. I get he's well-rounded and consistent, and a better player than numbers alone suggest, but still his career high is 28 goals and 64 points after 9 seasons.

Well, Max P best  year is 67 points

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ChiLla Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

ChiLla

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Posted
2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Term seems a little long... I'm sure he'll score 20-ish goals each year. Probably not bad value.

Yep, too much term but apparently there aren’t any no-trades involved, making it easy to dump the contract if need be. 

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MALMACIAN_CRUNCH Veteran / Vétéran

MALMACIAN_CRUNCH

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16 hours ago, maas_art said:

But using the actual trade in terms of players in our system, the equivalent would have been:
- 1st rounder (lottery protected, sure but that usually only means for 1 year)
- 2nd rounder
- Scherbak
- Byron & Plekanec (we dont really have anyone quite comparable to Bergland or Sobotka but these 2 would be close). 

So definitely the 2 vets arent "a lot" but they are still serviceable bottom 6 guys.  Throw in a fairly decent prospect and 2 high picks... thats a lot to pay for a (albeit very good) second line centre.

Besides the 1st round pick (although with it being lotto protected softens it a bit), I think I would have made that trade. A 2nd round pick was an obvious part of the price. I like Byron a lot, but I definitely wouldn't consider him off limits. If Sherbak was the only prospect it could have costed than absolutely, but my guess is he wouldn't have been enough. In fact I might have tried to sweeten the pot there, see if we couldn't hold on to the 1st round pick altogether. Poehling and Kotkaneimi would be out of the question, but maybe I'd offer up Ikonen or McNiven or Primeau or even Lingdren. Lots of options. 

That said, it's probably for the better that we sat this one out.    

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habby67 MVP / Joueur par excellence

habby67

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This mess is not a quick fix, a year after he signs Price to a gigantic contract and hoping an aging Weber rebounds. With the team in front of him we expect Price to be Dryden and honestly he deserves to have a good team in front of him for him to succeed. Now if you want to unload your assets, Price for one would have to agree and then take a chunk of salary to trade him and Patches is calling the shots....

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Regis22 Hockey Guru / Grand manitou

Regis22

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Im going to guess that the Habs are stuck with Max until the 2019 trade deadline .

They didn't move at last year's deadline , not during draft week and not at UFA week  ( yet ) , so now teams that may have wanted him have signed who they want to sign so there is no one looking for  him . And if he has another crap year , which with the makeup of this team , is entirely possible , hell be worth very little

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Graeme-1 All-Star / Super vedette

Graeme-1

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15 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Absolutely, the age factor is a thing. But to a win-now team like Toronto, I think you tend to overlook that more. Weber is still a #1 D man in the league right now, even if he's not the player he once was. He fits their need for a top-pairing right-handed defenceman who can play the PP. He's Mike Babcock's exact type of player, and they have a history together. I just think there are a lot of things that play into making this a great fit for them.

The other thing is that with the cap going up and the new hits we're seeing in the past little while, 7.8M is becoming more of a reasonable contract. People laughed at Subban's 9M a few years ago, but now look at an equivalent player in Doughty getting 11M for the next 8 years (in addition to the next one that he was already signed for), whereas the Preds could be out of their contract in Subban's early 30's. Doughty will be paid more money than Subban got per year for almost a decade longer. Tavares just got 11M from Toronto. Hedman's at 7.8M. Carlson's at 8M. OEL is at 8.25M. Karlsson will probably clock in above the 11M that Doughty signed for.

If the Leafs want a true top-pairing righty, first off, it'll be difficult to find a guy. How many top pairing D men hit the market this year? None. Other than Karlsson, most of next year's expected free agent crop have already been re-signed, and Karlsson might be an exception just because of how dumb ownership is in Ottawa to drive players out. So Toronto is almost certainly going to have to trade for a guy if they want him in the next two years. Sure, if they were looking to win in 3-5 years, Weber isn't the man. But they need to win now. They have the window. Nylander is expendable and a player they probably can't afford to pay (if you give him 5M instead of giving Weber 7.8, that doesn't leave you much left over to fetch a quality D man). A late 1st rounder next year and a player like Liljegren or Sandin aren't going to make an impact on their ability to win a Cup in the next two years. So if Toronto wants to do nothing and fight it out with Bos or Tampa to even get out of the division, fine. If they want to be proactive and be the clearcut favorite, I think it makes sense for them to go all in and shore up their D. I think they'd be hard-pressed to find a guy who meets their criteria now that another team would be willing to give up for futures at this point in the year. No one else is throwing in the towel on the current season and giving up their #1 D man (again except for Ottawa and their "take Bobby Ryan too" ask). i really do believe that a Weber for Nylander/1st/prospect trade is a deal that benefits both teams immensely, simply because the aims of each team are so different and so complementary.

All valid points, although the one part that I kind of disagree on is the "window". Given the core they have locked up or theoretically under their control for at least 5-7 years, this team could be good for a long time (think Penguins). With that said, the pressure is now ramped up to deliver right away.

It's impossible to know what the Leafs are thinking, but the current group doesn't seem to be very short-term thinkers. And that contract has a very good possibility of becoming a problem while still inside the core's window. 7.8 million is still a lot if it becomes "dead money". The question is: how confident are they that Weber decides to retire once he starts slowing down? If they're not, they better have a plan to trade the contract - probably possible given the salary structure, but it's going to cost them (like the Mason deal we just made but probably a bit more). If you have to give up a first to get rid of him in a few years, do you subtract that from his value today?

I don't know the answer. I have no doubt Weber would provide huge value for the Leafs for the next couple of seasons. But they have a potentially long-term window if they can continue drafting well to plug holes around the core, so they need to be careful about where their cap space goes in the future.

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