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State Of The Habs 2018-19


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1 minute ago, kinot-2 said:

While Andrew Shaw and Max Domi stole the show, it was rookie  Jesperi Kotkaniemi that joined an exclusive club thanks to the performance. 

The 18 year old now has 31 points in his rookie season which includes 11 goals and 20 assists. 

Kotkaniemi now joins Rasmus Dahlin, Patrik Laine, Ilya Kovalchuk and Jaromir Jagr as the only European players to score 30+ points at the age of 18. 

Anytime you're in the same group as Jagr, that's usually a good thing!

Kotkaniemi is also apparently first in the league in Fenwick right now (similar to Corsi)... so he's had some coaching help with zone starts but still doing an excellent job in possession.

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Have to wonder whether Carey Price is starting to work himself into the Vezina conversation... he's been maybe the hottest goalie in the league the last two months and after a horrid start, he's now up to 5th in the league in wins, 10th in GAA, and 11th in Sv % officially. HOWEVER, when you look at the list of guys ahead of him in save percentage, only two (Vasilevskiy and Andersen) have played 40 or more games. And in the GAA category, only Vasilevskiy and Rinne have played 40 or more. At 51 games, Carey has played significantly more than any goalie ahead of him statistically and many of the guys ahead of him are splitting time and are not true #1's this year... Rask and Halak are basically even in time played for Boston, Lehner and Greiss with the Isles, Campbell in LA, McElhinney in Car, Khudobin and Bishop in Dal. None of those guys are realistically Vezina candidates given they've only been in half their teams' games. So Vasilevskiy is the only guy ahead of Carey in both Sv% and GAA. Rinne and Andersen are each ahead and behind Carey in one category respectively. And MAF has gotten a lot of talk for the Vezina, but he's running a .908 save percentage, which is ordinary at best. IMO, Price is really at this point in the top 4  in this discussion and has the ability to lift himself into the top 3 if he can continue to do what he's done of late.

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20 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Have to wonder whether Carey Price is starting to work himself into the Vezina conversation... he's been maybe the hottest goalie in the league the last two months and after a horrid start, he's now up to 5th in the league in wins, 10th in GAA, and 11th in Sv % officially. HOWEVER, when you look at the list of guys ahead of him in save percentage, only two (Vasilevskiy and Andersen) have played 40 or more games. And in the GAA category, only Vasilevskiy and Rinne have played 40 or more. At 51 games, Carey has played significantly more than any goalie ahead of him statistically and many of the guys ahead of him are splitting time and are not true #1's this year... Rask and Halak are basically even in time played for Boston, Lehner and Greiss with the Isles, Campbell in LA, McElhinney in Car, Khudobin and Bishop in Dal. None of those guys are realistically Vezina candidates given they've only been in half their teams' games. So Vasilevskiy is the only guy ahead of Carey in both Sv% and GAA. Rinne and Andersen are each ahead and behind Carey in one category respectively. And MAF has gotten a lot of talk for the Vezina, but he's running a .908 save percentage, which is ordinary at best. IMO, Price is really at this point in the top 4  in this discussion and has the ability to lift himself into the top 3 if he can continue to do what he's done of late.

Ive seen a few "vezina prediction" articles over the past month or so & every one of them has Price in the discussion (usually they talk about 5 goalies).  Most are saying Vas. and Fleury are the guys to beat & that if Price can have a strong finish he should (at least) finish as a finalist & possibly have legitimate potential to win.  

 

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16 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Have to wonder whether Carey Price is starting to work himself into the Vezina conversation... he's been maybe the hottest goalie in the league the last two months and after a horrid start, he's now up to 5th in the league in wins, 10th in GAA, and 11th in Sv % officially. HOWEVER, when you look at the list of guys ahead of him in save percentage, only two (Vasilevskiy and Andersen) have played 40 or more games. And in the GAA category, only Vasilevskiy and Rinne have played 40 or more. At 51 games, Carey has played significantly more than any goalie ahead of him statistically and many of the guys ahead of him are splitting time and are not true #1's this year... Rask and Halak are basically even in time played for Boston, Lehner and Greiss with the Isles, Campbell in LA, McElhinney in Car, Khudobin and Bishop in Dal. None of those guys are realistically Vezina candidates given they've only been in half their teams' games. So Vasilevskiy is the only guy ahead of Carey in both Sv% and GAA. Rinne and Andersen are each ahead and behind Carey in one category respectively. And MAF has gotten a lot of talk for the Vezina, but he's running a .908 save percentage, which is ordinary at best. IMO, Price is really at this point in the top 4  in this discussion and has the ability to lift himself into the top 3 if he can continue to do what he's done of late.

You also forgot that he is 5th in SO with 3 only MAF with 6 and Vasalevski with 6  Brobrovski with 5 and Kinkaid with 3 (but with 10 less starts) are ahead there. Only MAF and Brobrovski have played more than 45 games making Price 3rd of goalies over 45 games.

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8 hours ago, maas_art said:

Ive seen a few "vezina prediction" articles over the past month or so & every one of them has Price in the discussion (usually they talk about 5 goalies).  Most are saying Vas. and Fleury are the guys to beat & that if Price can have a strong finish he should (at least) finish as a finalist & possibly have legitimate potential to win.  

 

 

8 hours ago, campabee82 said:

You also forgot that he is 5th in SO with 3 only MAF with 6 and Vasalevski with 6  Brobrovski with 5 and Kinkaid with 3 (but with 10 less starts) are ahead there. Only MAF and Brobrovski have played more than 45 games making Price 3rd of goalies over 45 games.

I don' think Carey's a finalist and definitely not a winner if they vote today... BUT you could argue that Vasilevskiy is playing behind a powerhouse team and isn't the main reason for his own fantastic numbers. Andersen and Rinne are in the same ballpark as Price right now but not clearly ahead of him. And everyone else is simply put behind Price in the important statistical categories. I really don't get the love for MAF at this point. He had a great start to the season but his numbers at this point are ordinary. Not sure how you can give a goalie with a .908 save percentage the Vezina. And even if he's got 6 shutouts, his GAA is inferior to the a host of other guys, meaning for every shutout he's gotten, he's also had a worse game to make up for it. I personally think shutouts are a bit overrated. The benefit of a shutout is reflected in your GAA. To me, a better number would be how many games a goalie has allowed 2 goals or less, which theoretically should set your team up to win the game. Still a team stat to some degree, but probably more reflective of a strong start than shutouts alone. I'd take the goalie who allows 1 goal against in 10 games straight rather than the goalie who has 4 shutouts in that span but allowed 4 goals in three other games. In baseball, they have a stat for pitchers called "quality starts" and the same thing can kind of be termed for goalies. Probably a more useful evaluation term than shutouts...

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Montreal has 7 games against non playoff teams + this 1 tonight, so really 8. 

Columbus, Carolina and Pittsburgh all play each other twice I believe, so there's 6 (hopefully) regulation losses in some combination to the teams 

Montreal basically controls their own fate.

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5 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Montreal has 7 games against non playoff teams + this 1 tonight, so really 8. 

Columbus, Carolina and Pittsburgh all play each other twice I believe, so there's 6 (hopefully) regulation losses in some combination to the teams 

Montreal basically controls their own fate.

I personally hate the games against non playoff teams. Those guys are loose and playing for jobs next year. Always a ton of upsets the last 5 weeks of the year. Hope we're not the victim of any of those.

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We also only have one game against all 3 of those teams with tonight being the only home game.  Only 7 home games left after tonight

Canes play CBJ, Pens (2), Habs  with 9 home games left

CBJ play Pens (2), Canes, Habs with 7 home games left

Pens play Habs, CBJ (2), Canes with10 home games left

I think the Pens have the easiest schedule remaining, and CBJ has the toughest, even thought they have the most home games left. They face the Jets, Pens (2) NYI (2), Boston (2), Canes, Calgary, Habs, & Preds among the playoff teams.  Ours and the Canes look about equal. 

Wouldn't it be something to see Columbus knocked out after pretty much bowing out of this years draft? And to boot they have a ton of UFA's this summer.

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4 hours ago, CANADIENS27 said:

No reliable backup for Price.  

 

 

I believe our last set of back to backs is this week with San Jose and Anaheim. I would start Niemi in San Jose unless we lose to LA. Price is likely to start until we clinch or are eliminated. we need to find a solid back up for a couple of years until Primeau is ready to share the load. I think barring injury to Price, Niemi has played his last meaningful game as a Hab. Julien cannot afford to have Niemi be responsible for a loss that knocks us out of the playoffs.  At this point the decision is being made for him by the position the team has put themselves in. A tired Price will still play significantly better than a rusty Niemi.

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2 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

I believe our last set of back to backs is this week with San Jose and Anaheim. I would start Niemi in San Jose unless we lose to LA. Price is likely to start until we clinch or are eliminated. we need to find a solid back up for a couple of years until Primeau is ready to share the load. I think barring injury to Price, Niemi has played his last meaningful game as a Hab. Julien cannot afford to have Niemi be responsible for a loss that knocks us out of the playoffs.  At this point the decision is being made for him by the position the team has put themselves in. A tired Price will still play significantly better than a rusty Niemi.

One more on the 23rd 24th after this week.

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It really looks like we're going to be in a tough, tough battle to scrape into the post-season. Philadelphia is also making a late season push, which will complicate matters. And stupid Carolina winning five games in a row. It appears is if we just have to beat out one of Pittsburgh, Carolina, or Columbus. That should give us a wildcard berth. Unless Philadelphia continues their push.

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34 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

It really looks like we're going to be in a tough, tough battle to scrape into the post-season. Philadelphia is also making a late season push, which will complicate matters. And stupid Carolina winning five games in a row. It appears is if we just have to beat out one of Pittsburgh, Carolina, or Columbus. That should give us a wildcard berth. Unless Philadelphia continues their push.

really hoping we a) make the playoffs and b ) dont end up last wild card 

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9 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Yeah, last wildcard puts us against Tampa, right? Tampa is SCARY.

I'd rather miss the playoffs then face Tampa because there is no chance of winning and giving the experience to the young kid. We would likely get swept, maybe win one game. I'd rather enter the lottery, even with a small chance of winning 

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34 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I'd rather miss the playoffs then face Tampa because there is no chance of winning and giving the experience to the young kid. We would likely get swept, maybe win one game. I'd rather enter the lottery, even with a small chance of winning 

I would much rather make the playoffs. The intensity the crowds , playoff hockey is all a great experience. Usually games are played tougher and generally less penalties no 3 on 3 OT . The HAB's have been one of the best 5on5 teams in the league so playoff hockey actually gives us a better chance. Price gets hot you never know. Upsets happen. 

 

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52 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Yeah, last wildcard puts us against Tampa, right? Tampa is SCARY.

Yup.   I think its a foregone conclusion TB will be 1st in the conference so #8 (#2 WC) is basically a date with the SC favourite. 

I think we have a chance against pretty much every other team in the east.  The only way we beat TB is if Price has basically the best 7 game stretch of his career. And even then, we need someone to score.  

That said, if we dont figure out our special teams - especially our PP - in the next 15+ games we arent beating anyone & probably arent even making the post season. 

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1 minute ago, CaptWelly said:

I would much rather make the playoffs. The intensity the crowds , playoff hockey is all a great experience. Usually games are played tougher and generally less penalties no 3 on 3 OT . The HAB's have been one of the best 5on5 teams in the league so playoff hockey actually gives us a better chance. Price gets hot you never know. Upsets happen. 

 

I will also say, if it was finish 29-31st. or just make a playoff spot then that's different, but to just miss or playoffs to me always playoffs!

 

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