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State Of The Habs 2018-19


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1 hour ago, ChiLla said:

The problem with Marner is that you‘ll basically have to outbid Toronto to make sure they can‘t afford to match Cap-wise. That‘s going to cost you 4 first round picks if I’m not mistaken. Is he worth that? Maybe. Is he worth that to us specifically? I don’t think so. He‘s an amazing player but he’s not going to put us over the top to the extent that we can afford to spend 4 first rounders for him IMO.

 

1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Very true. Sacrificing four first round draft choices for either Point or Marner would be... a lot to sacrifice. I do believe that Marner and Point are good enough to make us a playoff team, so those first rounders are probably not in the top-15, but... maybe they are. Who's to say? :unsure: Anywho, it's fun to speculate. I'd love to see the offer sheet used more frequently in the NHL.

Up until about 4 years ago, Id take that risk. We had some really bad 1st round picks (beau, tinordi, mccaron, scherbak, leblanc etc).  but the last few have been promising and I wouldnt trade Marner for Kotkaniemi + Poehling + Sergachev and Juulsen.  Obviously this is stacked because JK was a 3rd ova and Sergachev was 9th but even still, the other two were late first rounders so hopefully our drafting is getting better. 

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Charles Hudon at the presser yesterday:

"Hudon became very emotional when talking about his possible future in the organization and eventually walked away from the media. 

His future with the Canadiens is in doubt and during the season we even heard chatter that Hudon had asked for a trade. 

At the moment it seems like Hudon will look to exit Montreal as soon as possible. 

The young forward deleted his profile picture and bio regarding the Canadiens off his Twitter account. 

It's a clear indication that Hudon has no plans on moving forward as a member of the Montreal Canadiens. "

 

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3 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Bergevin said the team would consider using an offer sheet? :mellow: Well then. That's surprising.

I don't think there's a team in the league which doesn't consider an offer sheet. Being a GM means making your team better and using every option available while considering the consequences. 

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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

Charles Hudon at the presser yesterday:

"Hudon became very emotional when talking about his possible future in the organization and eventually walked away from the media. 

His future with the Canadiens is in doubt and during the season we even heard chatter that Hudon had asked for a trade. 

At the moment it seems like Hudon will look to exit Montreal as soon as possible. 

The young forward deleted his profile picture and bio regarding the Canadiens off his Twitter account. 

It's a clear indication that Hudon has no plans on moving forward as a member of the Montreal Canadiens. "

Well. Not surprising, really. It seems it would be in the interest of the team and Charles to part ways. As a RFA, what is the process for this? You simply don't make a qualifying offer, allowing the player to become an UFA?

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36 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Well. Not surprising, really. It seems it would be in the interest of the team and Charles to part ways. As a RFA, what is the process for this? You simply don't make a qualifying offer, allowing the player to become an UFA?

Yup, no qualifying offer before July 1st means he automatically becomes a UFA.

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2 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

Charles Hudon at the presser yesterday:

"Hudon became very emotional when talking about his possible future in the organization and eventually walked away from the media. 

His future with the Canadiens is in doubt and during the season we even heard chatter that Hudon had asked for a trade. 

At the moment it seems like Hudon will look to exit Montreal as soon as possible. 

The young forward deleted his profile picture and bio regarding the Canadiens off his Twitter account. 

It's a clear indication that Hudon has no plans on moving forward as a member of the Montreal Canadiens. "

 

I feel bad for him. I mean what changed from 2017-2018 to 2018-2019?   Sure, we had a lot of injuries in 2018 but hudon went from 72 games (many of them next to Pleks and Gallagher) one year to 32 games (most on the 4th line) the next.   Same coach, same system.  Its really odd.

I mean honestly he's a support player & its not going to hurt us to lose him but I cant understand why he is on the outside looking in while guys like DLo and were given ample changes.    

in the small amount of games Hudon did play this year he looked lost to me.  Like he was trying to do so much to impress that he just totally got away from his game.   I can see us letting him walk as a RFA and him going on to have a good solid 40point a year career somewhere else.   Not the end of the world but not great asset management and very strange that he fell out of favour so quickly. 

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26 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I feel bad for him. I mean what changed from 2017-2018 to 2018-2019?   Sure, we had a lot of injuries in 2018 but hudon went from 72 games (many of them next to Pleks and Gallagher) one year to 32 games (most on the 4th line) the next.   Same coach, same system.  Its really odd.

I mean honestly he's a support player & its not going to hurt us to lose him but I cant understand why he is on the outside looking in while guys like DLo and were given ample changes.    

in the small amount of games Hudon did play this year he looked lost to me.  Like he was trying to do so much to impress that he just totally got away from his game.   I can see us letting him walk as a RFA and him going on to have a good solid 40point a year career somewhere else.   Not the end of the world but not great asset management and very strange that he fell out of favour so quickly. 

Actually ...

2017-2018 games missed by Top 9 forwards :

Drouin 5

Pacciortetty 18

Danault 30

Plekenac 22

Lehkonen 26

Shaw 31

Byron, Gallagher and Galchenyuk missed 0

 

Roll into this season ... Paccioretty is replaced by Tatar, Galchenyuk by Domi.    Kotkaniemi takes Pleks spot ... Armia now takes up another spot in the top 9.    We lost a spot in the top 9 ... witness Byron or Lehkonen playing on 4th line down the stretch.

This year, only Shaw, Byron and Armia missed games.   There really was less opportunity for Hudon to break into the top 9 and we had better options many nights for the 4th line (Weal, Peca, Agostino, Chaput, Thompson etc)

 

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7 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Bergevin said the team would consider using an offer sheet? :mellow: Well then. That's surprising.

Consider and do are two different things. He also said they've considered it in past years too. It would take a special player in a situation where you know the other team is really in a jam to make it happen.

6 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Curiously, IF the team did make a pitch for Marner or Point, what are we thinking the AAV of those offers has to be? Surely Marner will want Auston Matthews money, right? Point will probably want something similar. Maybe he looks at Kucherov and says, "I should make somewhere CLOSE to that."

 

6 hours ago, ChiLla said:

The problem with Marner is that you‘ll basically have to outbid Toronto to make sure they can‘t afford to match Cap-wise. That‘s going to cost you 4 first round picks if I’m not mistaken. Is he worth that? Maybe. Is he worth that to us specifically? I don’t think so. He‘s an amazing player but he’s not going to put us over the top to the extent that we can afford to spend 4 first rounders for him IMO.

I can't think of a single player I'd give up 4 first-rounders for. Not McDavid, not Matthews, no one. Marner reportedly wants a deal in the same range as Matthews, which puts us in the 4 first-rounder category and that's a no-go for me.

Point probably falls more in the 9-9.5M range, which ends up being two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Keep in mind that you have to hold your own picks in these slots to be able to do this, so there are already 7 teams (Was, Pit, Clb, SJ, Dal, Col, and Buf) who can't even make this offer because they lack the picks to make it happen (unless they re-acquire them).

That said, even if you know the Leafs or Lightning will match, let's say you do offer 9.5M a year for 5 years to Point. Now you've forced TB to pay that out and move someone else off their roster to make it happen. It still weakens a divisional opponent. Ditto Marner... force the Leafs to accept a long-term deal worth 10M a season and it means they can't just bridge Marner with a one-year 7.5M deal or something like that while they're waiting for Marleau to come off the books. It would at the very least make it more likely they'd have to dump Kapanen and maybe Kadri and be unable to re-sign Gardiner... maybe it also takes these teams out of the running for other free agents like Karlsson or Dzingel or Skinner or so on.

I'll come back to the Habs though. Our biggest need is a LHD, and it's what we need to transform our line-up. So if you really can't swing a deal for a player through a trade, then it makes more sense to spend your time offer-sheeting a LHD than a forward. Go after one of the guys from Clb (Werenski or Murray) or Phi (Sanheim or Provorov) or even a righty like McAvoy in Boston or Trouba in Winnipeg. Say to McAvoy well give you a 7-year deal for 8M a season. Overpayment? Maybe. Maybe not down the line for a guy who could be a first-pairing player for you and who's only 21. Boston's onyl got about 10M in cap space, so at worst, it handicaps them into using it all up on McAvoy without being able to bridge him and then having to re-up Carlo as well. Boston doesn't really have anyone major coming off the books next year, so it really forces their hands there to make a trade and/or it takes them out of the market for other free agents. At best, you give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder in a year where you should be able to make the playoffs and you get a premiere young D man through his prime from a rival. That makes more sense to me than targeting Marner or Point.

 

 

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Given how the modern draft works, most 1st round players make the NHL ... say 90% of them.   And most of those have an impact.    Giving up 4 first rounders back in the 80's or 90s when the draft was more of a crapshoot might have made sense.    But in today's league 4 first rounders for one player is giving up far too much ... each of those picks is potentially somebody in your top 9 forwards or top 4 D.

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55 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Consider and do are two different things. He also said they've considered it in past years too. It would take a special player in a situation where you know the other team is really in a jam to make it happen.

 

I can't think of a single player I'd give up 4 first-rounders for. Not McDavid, not Matthews, no one. Marner reportedly wants a deal in the same range as Matthews, which puts us in the 4 first-rounder category and that's a no-go for me.

Point probably falls more in the 9-9.5M range, which ends up being two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. Keep in mind that you have to hold your own picks in these slots to be able to do this, so there are already 7 teams (Was, Pit, Clb, SJ, Dal, Col, and Buf) who can't even make this offer because they lack the picks to make it happen (unless they re-acquire them).

That said, even if you know the Leafs or Lightning will match, let's say you do offer 9.5M a year for 5 years to Point. Now you've forced TB to pay that out and move someone else off their roster to make it happen. It still weakens a divisional opponent. Ditto Marner... force the Leafs to accept a long-term deal worth 10M a season and it means they can't just bridge Marner with a one-year 7.5M deal or something like that while they're waiting for Marleau to come off the books. It would at the very least make it more likely they'd have to dump Kapanen and maybe Kadri and be unable to re-sign Gardiner... maybe it also takes these teams out of the running for other free agents like Karlsson or Dzingel or Skinner or so on.

I'll come back to the Habs though. Our biggest need is a LHD, and it's what we need to transform our line-up. So if you really can't swing a deal for a player through a trade, then it makes more sense to spend your time offer-sheeting a LHD than a forward. Go after one of the guys from Clb (Werenski or Murray) or Phi (Sanheim or Provorov) or even a righty like McAvoy in Boston or Trouba in Winnipeg. Say to McAvoy well give you a 7-year deal for 8M a season. Overpayment? Maybe. Maybe not down the line for a guy who could be a first-pairing player for you and who's only 21. Boston's onyl got about 10M in cap space, so at worst, it handicaps them into using it all up on McAvoy without being able to bridge him and then having to re-up Carlo as well. Boston doesn't really have anyone major coming off the books next year, so it really forces their hands there to make a trade and/or it takes them out of the market for other free agents. At best, you give up a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounder in a year where you should be able to make the playoffs and you get a premiere young D man through his prime from a rival. That makes more sense to me than targeting Marner or Point.

 

Agree with what you're saying.  If i was going to offersheet a player right now it would be a LHD. 

As far as who i would give up 4 first rounders for - i agree there arent many but I think i would do it for McDavid (or Crosby when he was under 25). 

 

 

 

 

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The thing that keeps sticking in my craw, and I've kept repeating it so many times over and over is that this 'most-winning-est-team-in NHL-history' seems to keep settling for second best. It's not good enough to miss the playoffs, it's not good enough to only MAKE the playoffs, the only thing good enough for our team is winning the Stanley Cup and hiring the best staff, the best coach, the best GM to get it done. Never-mind they are exciting to watch, what counts is for us to actually win the CUP and to get it done. That in itself would be one heck of an exciting thing to experience once again. I'm not a professional player, I'm not a coach, I'm not a GM but I'm a loyal fan who demands more from his team and its commitment to win.

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Preface : I am not making excuses for MB

I think the days of any team dominating for more than a few years are long gone.   Pre-1980 the Canadiens won 22 stanley cups.  We've won 3 since.   In fact with the exception the 80's Oilers no one team has dominated for multiple years the way the Canadiens did pre-1980.

Now what's contributed to that? 

Expansion and Free Agency.     Free Agency started in 1972 ... but i'd argue it didn't really start having an impact on teams till about the 90s.    During the 70's there was still essentially the Haves (the original 6) and the have-nots (expansion teams).    You started to see some player movement in the 80s but Free Agency didn't have a major impact until the Salary Cap Era.    Expansion through the 80s and 90s from 12 teams to 31 has helped that along.

Players now have 31 destinations to choose from.    There are 31 GM's potentially bidding for their services.   30 years ago, that was definitely not the case.  Montreal regardless of your love for the city is NOT a preferred destination regardless of its hockey history.   There are quit a few reasons for that from taxes, to language etc.   So Les Canadiens rebuilding through free agency has always been unlikely.

Which brings us to the draft ... for the most part we've sucked for the past 30 years at drafting.   Yes that can somewhat be laid at the feet of poor management (I'm looking at you Rejean Houle) but I think there's another subtle thing at play here that many of us overlook.    In the past 30 years we've tended to draft in the bottom half.  When we do draft high we have success (Price, Sergachev, Kotkaniemi) but the bottom half of the first round is a bit of a crapshoot.

And I think the fear of tanking has kept us a bubble team for that very reason.   The owners and management don't want to risk a riot if we say missed the playoffs for 4-5 years.

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1 hour ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

The thing that keeps sticking in my craw, and I've kept repeating it so many times over and over is that this 'most-winning-est-team-in NHL-history' seems to keep settling for second best. It's not good enough to miss the playoffs, it's not good enough to only MAKE the playoffs, the only thing good enough for our team is winning the Stanley Cup and hiring the best staff, the best coach, the best GM to get it done. Never-mind they are exciting to watch, what counts is for us to actually win the CUP and to get it done. That in itself would be one heck of an exciting thing to experience once again. I'm not a professional player, I'm not a coach, I'm not a GM but I'm a loyal fan who demands more from his team and its commitment to win.

To win the cup we need to make the playoffs. As I watch tonight's games it is very upsetting that we are not in them. We need to over spend on a free agent or two in the summer. Even thou I stick up for Drouin on every occasion if we need to trade him to improve I would be okay with that. Next season we have to be in the race. Next season we have to be part of the chase.

But lets start sticking up for the players we have and not the ones we do not. Tough enough to play in Montreal without the fans being on your case. Love your team and ALL the players on it. 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

 

Agree with what you're saying.  If i was going to offersheet a player right now it would be a LHD. 

As far as who i would give up 4 first rounders for - i agree there arent many but I think i would do it for McDavid (or Crosby when he was under 25).

Here are the reasons I wouldn't give up 4 1st's, even for McDavid:

1. McDavid's already 22 and he's got 4 years of NHL mileage on him. He's got a target on his back, and he's had some injuries. Sure, he'll be dominant for a while if he stays healthy, but you have to wonder how long he'll be at full force. Crosby missed significant periods of time during his career because of concussions and wear and tear, and the funny thing about forwards is that most of them peak in their early 20's. So if you trade for McDavid, you'd better be damn sure you're in the top 3-5 teams in terms of chances of competing for a Cup. Edmonton hasn't been able to say that even with McDavid, so it's not a guarantee that having him changes things here either, especially if we don't also fix our left D.

2. Money. 4 first round picks might not all pan out, but at least a couple should be decent players and the other aspect of that is that they're going to be on ELC for a while. That's cost control. McDavid, or other RFA's that you offersheet for 4 firsts are making well over 10M a season. That means you're not only giving up the 4 firsts, you're also giving up the extra cap space you'd have by paying entry-level players lower amounts.

3. There's always a risk one of those picks could be a lottery pick. McDavid gets hurt and suddenly maybe you're in the lottery. Price or Weber get hurt and maybe you're in the lottery. And when you're in the lottery, then maybe you're losing the 1st overall pick. Maybe that's Alexis Lafreniere AND three other 1st rounders you just gave up. Guys who would be cost-controlled as well. It's one thing to give up 4 firsts if you know they're going to be in the 23-31 range every year. But there are a lot of unknowns and you can be bitten in the butt very quickly for giving up 1st's that you no longer have control over where they are... just look at Ottawa. There's zero chance they thought they'd be a lottery team after acquiring Duchene but things turned very quickly and suddenly they have no Karlsson, no Hoffman, no Stone, no Duchene, and they got lucky that they didn't give up Jack Hughes. IMO, I'd be okay including one 1st rounder for an RFA signing when you have a good idea you're likely to be a playoff team in that season. Otherwise, it starts to put a lot of guesswork into things.

 

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Canadiens prospect Cayden Primeau won the Mike Richter Award Friday night as the top goalie in U.S. college hockey.

Primeau, selected by the Canadiens in the seventh round (199th overall) at the 2017 NHL Draft, posted a 25-10-1 record during his sophomore season with Northeastern University, along with a 2.09 goals-against average, a .933 save percentage and four shutouts in 36 games. 

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On 4/13/2019 at 10:48 PM, HARBORSPORT said:

i saw some of the Laval game against the Syracuse Crunch....mcniven was in goal......not a good night for him  .....let in 7.......so I guess he'd fit right in......:6351:

Yeah, isn't Laval still horrible like they've been for years? We gotta do a better job with the AHL team.

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So going into this summer have pretty much NO core free agents but we have some decent/important players.  

UFA:
Niemi, Weal, Thompson, Benn, Folin, Knight

RFA:
Armia, Lehkonen, Kulak, McCarron, Reway, Reilly, Olofsson, Ouellet, Lernout, Audette, Shinkaruk, Hudon

 

There's a few obvious ones there (Neimi will not be back, Armia, Lehks and Kulak should all be offered contracts) but there's definitely some interesting question marks.  My biggest questions:

- will we resign our bottom pair (Benn/Folin) - imho we dont need to (we already have similar or better options) but I wouldnt be surprised to see MB sign at least one. 

- will McCarron get another offer?  By all accounts, under Bouchard he took big strides this year prior to the season ending injury, but is it enough?  Is he just a late bloomer?

- will Hudon be offered a contract?  He was easily a top 9 player on the roster 1 year ago but couldnt crack our top 12 this year and with Suzuki and Poeling in the wings it will only get tougher.

- Will late season additions like Weal and Thompson be back? I feel like Weal might bed offered a contract but i think he might look for a longer deal elsewhere

- Is Mike Reilly in our plans any more?  He looked like a legit top 4 guy for the first 1/4 of the season but barely played at all in the last 1/4

 

Obviously we dont yet know what (if any) UFA we'll be going after and if we're going to make any trades but im curious what everyone thinks?

 

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18 minutes ago, maas_art said:

So going into this summer have pretty much NO core free agents but we have some decent/important players.  

UFA:
Niemi, Weal, Thompson, Benn, Folin, Knight

RFA:
Armia, Lehkonen, Kulak, McCarron, Reway, Reilly, Olofsson, Ouellet, Lernout, Audette, Shinkaruk, Hudon

 

There's a few obvious ones there (Neimi will not be back, Armia, Lehks and Kulak should all be offered contracts) but there's definitely some interesting question marks.  My biggest questions:

- will we resign our bottom pair (Benn/Folin) - imho we dont need to (we already have similar or better options) but I wouldnt be surprised to see MB sign at least one. 

- will McCarron get another offer?  By all accounts, under Bouchard he took big strides this year prior to the season ending injury, but is it enough?  Is he just a late bloomer?

- will Hudon be offered a contract?  He was easily a top 9 player on the roster 1 year ago but couldnt crack our top 12 this year and with Suzuki and Poeling in the wings it will only get tougher.

- Will late season additions like Weal and Thompson be back? I feel like Weal might bed offered a contract but i think he might look for a longer deal elsewhere

- Is Mike Reilly in our plans any more?  He looked like a legit top 4 guy for the first 1/4 of the season but barely played at all in the last 1/4

 

Obviously we dont yet know what (if any) UFA we'll be going after and if we're going to make any trades but im curious what everyone thinks?

 

My guesses:

- we shouldn't bother re-signing Benn or Folin unless the plan is to send Folin to Laval as a depth player. However, knowing MB, he loves his veteran depth defencemen and I think he will offer Benn a 2-year deal worth about 2.5-3M a year. IMO, a big mistake, but I think that's what he'll do. The team repeatedly moved him into the top 4 over the past couple of years, so they clearly think he is more capable than he actually is.

- The biggish news on McCarron this year was that he's been playing with a nagging shoulder injury for 4 years before deciding to get operated this year. So it's a legitimate question as to whether correcting whatever was nagging him will make a difference. If his recovery goes well, I wouldn't be surprised if they give him one more chance.

- I don't think they will let Hudon go for nothing. I think they will qualify and sign Hudon to a one-year deal and maybe look at him in camp. I think the odds of his making the team out of camp are virtually nil and either he'll be traded over the summer or before the start of the season, or else he'll be placed on waivers to send down and possibly be claimed that way.

- Like Benn and Folin, I think MB will be over-infatuated with Weal and Thompson. However, I do think he might show some more restraint on offering them big money. I think he'll be willing to offer Weal something like 3 years at 2-2.2M a season. I also wonder if he'll talk to Thompson about a one-year deal. Thomspon has stated he really liked playing here and hopes to be back, so I think he'd be willing to sign for one year if that's all we offered him. In the end, I think the odds are higher that Thompson is back, but it's touch and go for both. Neither is a priority.

- Reilly will probably be a bit like Hudon... I think we'll make him an offer but he'll have to win his spot back in camp. Whether he makes it will depend a bit on what else MB does for the D depth over the summer. Weber, Petry, Mete, Kulak, and Juulsen are all clearly ahead of him on the depth chart right now. Benn will be too if he's back. Then it depends on whether we make another signing or whether Brook is ready or so on. The left side is still our glaring weakness, so I think there's still a roster spot for Reilly to lose if MB can't find another option.

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34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

So going into this summer have pretty much NO core free agents but we have some decent/important players.  

UFA:
Niemi, Weal, Thompson, Benn, Folin, Knight

RFA:
Armia, Lehkonen, Kulak, McCarron, Reway, Reilly, Olofsson, Ouellet, Lernout, Audette, Shinkaruk, Hudon

 

There's a few obvious ones there (Neimi will not be back, Armia, Lehks and Kulak should all be offered contracts) but there's definitely some interesting question marks.  My biggest questions:

- will we resign our bottom pair (Benn/Folin) - imho we dont need to (we already have similar or better options) but I wouldnt be surprised to see MB sign at least one. 

- will McCarron get another offer?  By all accounts, under Bouchard he took big strides this year prior to the season ending injury, but is it enough?  Is he just a late bloomer?

- will Hudon be offered a contract?  He was easily a top 9 player on the roster 1 year ago but couldnt crack our top 12 this year and with Suzuki and Poeling in the wings it will only get tougher.

- Will late season additions like Weal and Thompson be back? I feel like Weal might bed offered a contract but i think he might look for a longer deal elsewhere

- Is Mike Reilly in our plans any more?  He looked like a legit top 4 guy for the first 1/4 of the season but barely played at all in the last 1/4

 

Obviously we dont yet know what (if any) UFA we'll be going after and if we're going to make any trades but im curious what everyone thinks?

 

I think Hudon will be gone, i don't think he wants to stay, but I'd give him another chance. Hudon had a bad year, previously he showed promise. Personally I would like to see Thompson, Weal and Benn  return at about 1.5 million or less on a 2-3 year deal (1 year deal for Thompson) and I think that will happen. I don't see any reason not give McCarron a contract, its not going to cost much. Not sure about Reilly.

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

So going into this summer have pretty much NO core free agents but we have some decent/important players.  

UFA:
Niemi, Weal, Thompson, Benn, Folin, Knight
 

 

Keep Weal and bid adios to the rest. 

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