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2018 - 2019 Habs Magic Number & Lottery Race


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2 hours ago, Habs_Hockey_Nutz said:

Been a while since the Habs are below the 2.00 mark needed to make the playoffs... is the run over?

I hope not. The season to date has been a fairly pleasant surprise and I’d hate for it to end without a meaningful 4 games or more.

Need to beat the Rangers on Friday and hope the Hurricane (v STL) and/or Pittsburgh (@ BUF) lose their games to get back on track. 

Big 4-point game against the Penguins on Saturday night. Both teams will be on the latter half of back-to-backs. 

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I think we are secure if we can maintain a little better than .500 as Columbus , Pittsburgh and Carolina have some head to head matcups that should slow their progress.  We don't want to wait until the end as our last 4 games are against some formidable opponents. Carolina has some tough opponents coming up quickly so it is a good time to make up some ground. Ironically if we put a little streak together we may be ahead of the whole Metropolitan division.

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On 2/28/2019 at 3:21 PM, Habberwacky said:

I think we are secure if we can maintain a little better than .500 as Columbus , Pittsburgh and Carolina have some head to head matcups that should slow their progress.  We don't want to wait until the end as our last 4 games are against some formidable opponents. Carolina has some tough opponents coming up quickly so it is a good time to make up some ground. Ironically if we put a little streak together we may be ahead of the whole Metropolitan division.

Indeed the Metro division seems weak this year but I don't know about .500.  17 games left so if we were to win 9 of them, that's only 18 of the 35 points we need to clinch. I'm not sure we can get the other 17 from bonuses alone, despite the games the other teams play against each other.

...

MN is 35.

4-pointer against Pittsburgh tonight. I'm not going to say "must win" but somebody else might.

 

MN 201819.jpg

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According to sportsclubstats...

- Getting to 97 pts gives us about a 90% chance of getting into the playoffs

- Getting to 91 points leaves us with only a 10% shot at the playoffs

- Getting to 94 points puts us at almost exactly 50-50

- Tonight's game, if we win in regulation, is huge: it swings our chances of making the playoffs up by 8.4%! Conversely a loss would be devastating and would drop our chances by 11.7%. The Oilers, if they hold on to win in regulation against Clb, could boost our playoff chances by 2.8%.

So that's the target for now... 10 wins in the last 17 games including tonight. If we win tonight, then we need to find 9 more victories. IMO, the easier ones to win would be

@LA

@Ana

vs Det

vs Chi

@Phi

vs NYI

vs Buf

vs Fla

vs TB (hoping they are locked into the 1 seed by then)

So we really can't afford to drop any home games and we also need to be able to win tonight and steal 4 points on the Western road trip. That's the path if you ask me.

 

 

 

 

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Disaster night after a good afternoon. We lose, Pit wins against us, Car wins, Tor wins... would hard to be worse. Teetering on the edge of the playoffs now with a challenging schedule to end the year. This was almost a must-win and we laid a big stinker. Just not prepared to start the game, which has happened too often in recent weeks.

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21 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

According to sportsclubstats...

- Getting to 97 pts gives us about a 90% chance of getting into the playoffs

- Getting to 91 points leaves us with only a 10% shot at the playoffs

- Getting to 94 points puts us at almost exactly 50-50

- Tonight's game, if we win in regulation, is huge: it swings our chances of making the playoffs up by 8.4%! Conversely a loss would be devastating and would drop our chances by 11.7%. The Oilers, if they hold on to win in regulation against Clb, could boost our playoff chances by 2.8%.

So that's the target for now... 10 wins in the last 17 games including tonight. If we win tonight, then we need to find 9 more victories. IMO, the easier ones to win would be

@LA

@Ana

vs Det

vs Chi

@Phi

vs NYI

vs Buf

vs Fla

vs TB (hoping they are locked into the 1 seed by then)

So we really can't afford to drop any home games and we also need to be able to win tonight and steal 4 points on the Western road trip. That's the path if you ask me.

 

 

 

 

I had  us slipping in with 93 pts over Pit at 91, but today Columbus appears to be the team trying to find their game. Time to get out the Bruin paraphernalia as they play  4 against Pit Carolina and Columbus between now and March 16. Go Bruins????

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7 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Columbus loses in regulation today.

Isles also lose and could be slipping back towards us soon too. Washington wins and looks like the team to beat for the Metro crown right now.

We still need some help. Given that I was resigned to missing the playoffs four months ago or so, I can't help but feel the 2nd WC spot doesn't give much hope for anything past a token first round appearance. I'm desperately hoping we can climb to that first spot.

...

Won't belong before we lose the Conference and Division. Only about 3 games left.

...

MN is 33.

 

MN 201819.jpg

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4 hours ago, Flying_Lion said:

We still need some help. Given that I was resigned to missing the playoffs four months ago or so, I can't help but feel the 2nd WC spot doesn't give much hope for anything past a token first round appearance. I'm desperately hoping we can climb to that first spot.

...

Won't belong before we lose the Conference and Division. Only about 3 games left.

...

MN is 33.

 

 

Yeah, last WC puts us against Tampa in first round and winner of TOR vs BOS in 2nd round ... not very appetizing.

WC1 puts us against the Metro division and easier opponents right up until the Conference finals.

We're being given odds of making the playoffs at 65%, winning the conference finals at 5% and the Stanley cup at 2.7% 

ex0rqf4.jpg

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3 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

Yeah, last WC puts us against Tampa in first round and winner of TOR vs BOS in 2nd round ... not very appetizing.

WC1 puts us against the Metro division and easier opponents right up until the Conference finals.

We're being given odds of making the playoffs at 65%, winning the conference finals at 5% and the Stanley cup at 2.7% 

ex0rqf4.jpg

Ha!

That’s always been my stance re: the playoffs. Get there & there’s hope. The Metropolitan division is definitely the more enticing way to go but we have to beat 2/3 of Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Columbus.

The Blue Jackets are looking the odd team out right now so it would be a matter of securing WC1 over PIT or CAR.

 

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CBJ and the Pens are B2B their next two games. Hopefully one of them sweeps. No 3 pointers please. Next 7 games for the Jackets are all tough ones.

Canes face the Jets and the Preds. Again hoping the stronger West teams come through for us.

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MN is 31.

All the games that mattered to us last night went into extra time with Carolina’s loss being the only saving grace and even that being little consolation while they’re 3rd in the Metro.

At least we kept pace and didn’t fall behind.

Board update later today. 

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Regarding Thursday night's games: we don't get any bonus points from Carolina or Pittsburgh losses. A regulation Columbus loss gives us 2.

I think the ideal is for Columbus to lose 2 straight to Pittsburgh which would give us at least a 1 game cushion on the 2nd WC spot providing we can beat one of San Jose or Anaheim.

Carolina losses would keep the dream of WC1 alive.

MN 201819.jpg

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Here's a new one: MN WC1 is 33.

We're 2 games back of avoiding Tampa while treading water against early tee times.

Go Jets Go.

...

Next Habs loss or Tampa win divides the Division and Conference math by zero.

...

We don't have a lot of tiebreakers.

...

MN is 29.

 

MN 201819.jpg

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