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2018 - 2019 Habs Magic Number & Lottery Race


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Clb defeats Pit, which means those teams split those games. Not good for us.

Carolina up 2-1 on Nashville after 2.

Means we are back outside the playoff picture with those other teams holding both games in hand and the tie-breaker on us.

To make the playoffs, I'd guess we'd need to go at least 8-5 and probably 9-4 over the last 13 games. The last four games are tough tough match-ups (unless the opposition is resting players). So it means a this point, we almost certainly need to win the head-to-head games against Clb and Car (both road games). It also means that of the other 7 games on the menu (Det, Chi, Buf, Fla, NYI home and away, and @Phi), we probably need to win 5-6 of them. Bottom line is that we've lost all the games we had as buffer. Starting Tuesday, there really isn't any margin for error. Those 4 home games against non-playoff teams need to be won convincingly.

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MN is 29.

The Islanders can do us a solid tonight. Handing Columbus a loss would bring the Bluejackets in line with us after 69 games each but we'd still be out on account of the tiebreaker. One step at a time, though ....

 

MN 201819.jpg

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Chicago is rolling up the score on Toronto tonight, which tells us they won't be an easy out for us coming up either. Bottom line for me is that I think we're going to need to see Carolina or Columbus really falter to make the playoffs. Sportsclubstats has us at 44.9% to make the post-season right now. If you look at the breakdown, 93 points puts us under 50% odds while 94 points puts us just over 50%. 96 pts is where we start to climb into the high-80% likelihood of making the post-season, so that's likely got to to be the anticipated target right now. That means 15 points in the last 12 games. So count them out... what are the hardest 4 games remaining? Assuming teams aren't resting guys, 3 of them would have to be @Wpg, vs. TB, and @Was near the end of the year. That means in the other 9 games, the Habs have to come up with at least 7 wins... they are

@NYI

Chi

@Phi

NYI

Buf

@Car

Fla

@Clb

Tor

We lose the tie-breaks, so we need to find more wins in the remainder of the season than Clb or 2 more than Car (with the Canes also having a game in hand). Tough tough road ahead to get in, but we can only blame ourselves for that horrid end to the West coast trip...

 

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Here's my take.

Final Predictions

WC1 Columbus 95pts

WC2 Carolina    93pts

Habs 91 pts

 

Here's how I came to that conclusion:

Lets assume Montreal beats Carolina and CBJ in regulation , Carolina loses to CBJ in regulation and Carolina/Pittsburgh split their two. That covers the  ames vs the bottom 4  for WC spots in the East.

Postive games +8 or more pts in standings, close -7 to + 7, Negative -8 or less.   A game against TBL is a loss.

Montreal
NYI -6, CHI 10, NYI -6, BUF 12, CAR Win, FLA 9, CBJ Win, WPG -3, TBL Loss, WSH -8, TOR -8

2-1, 3 positive games, 3 close games, 2 negative games

Carolina
CBJ Loss, BUF 14, PIT Win, TBL Loss, MIN 9, MTL Loss, WSH -6, WSH -6, PHI 7, PIT Loss, TOR -6, NJD 12, PHI 7

1-4, 3 positive games, 3 close games

Columbus
CAR Win, BOS -12, CGY -12, EDM 12, VAN 14, NYI -6, MTL Loss, NSH -2, BUF 12, BOS -12, NYR 12, OTT 29

1-1, 5 positive games, 2 close game, 3 negative

Pittsburgh

BUF 16, STL 6, PHI 9, CAR Loss, NSH 3, DAL 8, NYR 16, NSH 3, CAR W, DET 27
DET 27, NYR 16

1-1, 7 positive games, 3 close games, no negative games

 

Pittsburgh's schedule almost guarantees them a spot.  Even assuming the loss to Philadelphia and win the rest of their positive games, that's 7-2 with three close games.   Puting them at 99 pts with 3 games against similar opponents.  

Columbus - Their positive games they really only have one "sure" thing, and that's against Ottawa.   The other 4 are not as easy but probably still winnable.  So say 4-1 for their positives giving a 5-1 record  over those for 91 pts with 3 close games.

Carolina ...they play Chicago like we do, who are not going to be easy.  so say 2-1 in their positives.   87 pts with 3 close games.

Then Habs ... same boat as Carolina, probably 2-1 in our 3 positive games, leaving us 85 pts with 3 close games.

So with Habs, Carolina and CBJ all have 3 wiggle games ... and thats assuming Habs win against both of them and Carolina loses to CBJ, Habs, Pittsburgh.

CBJ 79gp 91pts

CAR 79gp 87pts

Habs 79gp 85pts

We have no wiggle room ... we have to go 3-0 in those close games to finish with 91pts.    That leaves us 4 games I counted as losses (TBL, WSH, CHI, TOR). In addtion we still have to win against CAR and CBJ.   Lose to either of them and we HAVE to then make it up against one of the top teams.

CBJ unless they fall apart are probably making one of the WC spots ... they have 5 easier games, 2 close games even if they lose to Carolina and us giving them 89pts in 79 they have 7 games against equal or lesser teams to make it up.  

CAR is interesting as they also have no wiggle room.    Even with counting their losses the way I did they have 3 easier games and 3 close games ... 

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

Here's my take.

Final Predictions

WC1 Columbus 95pts

WC2 Carolina    93pts

Habs 91 pts

 

Here's how I came to that conclusion:

Lets assume Montreal beats Carolina and CBJ in regulation , Carolina loses to CBJ in regulation and Carolina/Pittsburgh split their two. That covers the  ames vs the bottom 4  for WC spots in the East.

Postive games +8 or more pts in standings, close -7 to + 7, Negative -8 or less.   A game against TBL is a loss.

Montreal
NYI -6, CHI 10, NYI -6, BUF 12, CAR Win, FLA 9, CBJ Win, WPG -3, TBL Loss, WSH -8, TOR -8

2-1, 3 positive games, 3 close games, 2 negative games

Carolina
CBJ Loss, BUF 14, PIT Win, TBL Loss, MIN 9, MTL Loss, WSH -6, WSH -6, PHI 7, PIT Loss, TOR -6, NJD 12, PHI 7

1-4, 3 positive games, 3 close games

Columbus
CAR Win, BOS -12, CGY -12, EDM 12, VAN 14, NYI -6, MTL Loss, NSH -2, BUF 12, BOS -12, NYR 12, OTT 29

1-1, 5 positive games, 2 close game, 3 negative

Pittsburgh

BUF 16, STL 6, PHI 9, CAR Loss, NSH 3, DAL 8, NYR 16, NSH 3, CAR W, DET 27
DET 27, NYR 16

1-1, 7 positive games, 3 close games, no negative games

 

Pittsburgh's schedule almost guarantees them a spot.  Even assuming the loss to Philadelphia and win the rest of their positive games, that's 7-2 with three close games.   Puting them at 99 pts with 3 games against similar opponents.  

Columbus - Their positive games they really only have one "sure" thing, and that's against Ottawa.   The other 4 are not as easy but probably still winnable.  So say 4-1 for their positives giving a 5-1 record  over those for 91 pts with 3 close games.

Carolina ...they play Chicago like we do, who are not going to be easy.  so say 2-1 in their positives.   87 pts with 3 close games.

Then Habs ... same boat as Carolina, probably 2-1 in our 3 positive games, leaving us 85 pts with 3 close games.

So with Habs, Carolina and CBJ all have 3 wiggle games ... and thats assuming Habs win against both of them and Carolina loses to CBJ, Habs, Pittsburgh.

CBJ 79gp 91pts

CAR 79gp 87pts

Habs 79gp 85pts

We have no wiggle room ... we have to go 3-0 in those close games to finish with 91pts.    That leaves us 4 games I counted as losses (TBL, WSH, CHI, TOR). In addtion we still have to win against CAR and CBJ.   Lose to either of them and we HAVE to then make it up against one of the top teams.

CBJ unless they fall apart are probably making one of the WC spots ... they have 5 easier games, 2 close games even if they lose to Carolina and us giving them 89pts in 79 they have 7 games against equal or lesser teams to make it up.  

CAR is interesting as they also have no wiggle room.    Even with counting their losses the way I did they have 3 easier games and 3 close games ... 

Not saying your wrong but look at our schedule and our record against the Leafs, Jets, Lightening and Caps this year

0-3 vs Leafs (could have been 3-0 with 2 OT losses and one blown 3 goal lead)

0-3 vs Lightening (we kept all 3 close until the 3rd)

1-1 vs Caps 

1-0 vs Jets (handily won that 5-1 last month)

so saying that any of those games is a guaranteed loss is a gross misrepresentation of the season we are having.

not to mention

1-0 vs NYI

0-2 vs Sabres (both OT losses)

1-1 vs Flyers

1-1 vs Hurricanes

2-0 vs Blue Jackets 

I like those odds as we tend to play better against the better competition. 

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Not saying your wrong but look at our schedule and our record against the Leafs, Jets, Lightening and Caps this year

0-3 vs Leafs (could have been 3-0 with 2 OT losses and one blown 3 goal lead)

0-3 vs Lightening (we kept all 3 close until the 3rd)

1-1 vs Caps 

1-0 vs Jets (handily won that 5-1 last month)

so saying that any of those games is a guaranteed loss is a gross misrepresentation of the season we are having.

 

0-3 vs Leafs and 0-3 vs Lightening regardless of the scores, is still 0-6 against those two teams and a fair assumption of an expected loss against them.   No matter how you slice it we have to go 8-4 or 9-3 minimum as Carolina and Columbus have easier schedules.

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22 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

0-3 vs Leafs and 0-3 vs Lightening regardless of the scores, is still 0-6 against those two teams and a fair assumption of an expected loss against them.   No matter how you slice it we have to go 8-4 or 9-3 minimum as Carolina and Columbus have easier schedules.

Yeah. This sucks. I keep thinking of being between ab rock and a hard place and on the wrong side of an eight ball. 

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22 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

0-3 vs Leafs and 0-3 vs Lightening regardless of the scores, is still 0-6 against those two teams and a fair assumption of an expected loss against them.   No matter how you slice it we have to go 8-4 or 9-3 minimum as Carolina and Columbus have easier schedules.

My point wasn't that we should mark Tampa a win but should actually rate it as winnable games not guaranteed losses sort of like you did with Toronto and Washington games.

I too believe it will be a hard row to hoe but not an impossible task. I don't understand why everything has to be so negative all the time. I like believing in still having a shot as long as we are not mathematically eliminated.

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10 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Clb win in regulation over Car tonight. Not the best result, as it would have been better for Car to win. Both teams play tomorrow though, so hopefully they are both gassed and lose their next ones.

With both Buffalo and Boston struggling lately, I wouldn't bet on it... Boston may turn things around vs. the Jackets hopefully

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3 hours ago, HabsRuleForever said:

No it’s not over yet mathematically, however it’s looking pretty bleak.

Math holds out longer than hope. 

Its not necessarily logical but it’s true. 

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1 hour ago, Flying_Lion said:

Math holds out longer than hope. 

Its not necessarily logical but it’s true. 

If giving up hope before your team is actually out of it ( especially after outshooting your last opponent and by double and having over 45 shots) than those that do please don't watch the playoffs if we do make it

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Just now, CaptWelly said:

If giving up hope before your team is actually out of it ( especially after outshooting your last opponent and by double and having over 45 shots) than those that do please don't watch the playoffs if we do make it

If you've officially given up hope now and we make the playoffs and then cheer on the team....that's the definition of a bandwagon fan!

 

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3 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

If giving up hope before your team is actually out of it ( especially after outshooting your last opponent and by double and having over 45 shots) than those that do please don't watch the playoffs if we do make it

Whoa! Careful, now. 

Hope is always there when the math is fair but numbers put pressure on probably outcomes. 

Preparing for a probable outcome is not “giving up”.

I love this number. I love the Habs in the Playoffs. It sickens me that we may not make it after a season where we proved most of the preseason predictions wrong.

My point was: math holds out longer than hope. 

The math is still there. YES! We can still make the playoffs. And I get you. I’m not “Willy-nilly” with my fandom. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know that it doesn’t look good  

The math might be sound as far as the Magic Number goes but a lot of other ones go the other way. 

We’ve just sucked lately during a time when we should’ve been making the most of opportunities. I’m not going to give you the stats, others have thrown them around  in their deeper analysis in other threads, but just because I’m showing the fatigue of calculating our Team’s losses doesn’t mean I’m giving up hope. 

 

Besides: I’d love to be wrong. 

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3 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

If you've officially given up hope now and we make the playoffs and then cheer on the team....that's the definition of a bandwagon fan!

 

That’s just a salvo. 

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On 3/17/2019 at 8:20 PM, CaptWelly said:

If you've officially given up hope now and we make the playoffs and then cheer on the team....that's the definition of a bandwagon fan!

 

That's me in the white shirt on top of the third car!packed-train-pakistan.jpg

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The forum crashes and when it comes back, we're in a playoff position. Maybe we need a longer crash and we can hope for a first-round victory!

Still thinking our schedule looks tougher than Columbus' to finish the year. Carolina's looks decently tough as well, but we need to pass them in points because of the tie-breaker AND they have a game in hand, so that'll be hard. We'll really need to win both games against Car and Clb to have a shot at finishing ahead of one of them.

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