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2019-20 If i were GM


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7 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

You keep referring to the Lindros trade as a benchmark for what it would cost to acquire the 1st OVA pick however now your contradicting that by saying a GM would give up the 1st OVA for 2nd, 3rd and 8th.

Lindros went for 

Steve Duchesne
Peter Forsberg
Ron Hextall
Kerry Huffman
Mike Ricci
$15M cash 
1993 1st round pick (#10-Jocelyn Thibault) 
future considerations (Chris Simon 1994 1st round pick (#10-Nolan Baumgartner)) 

how is those 3 picks even close to what Philly gave up? which was

2 - 1st's 93 & 94 which turned out to be 10th OVA picks (Thibault & Baumgartner)
a #1 goalie (Hextall who was only 7 years into his 13 year hall of fame career)

6th OVA pick (Forsberg)

25th OVA pick (Simmon)

A good bottom 6 roster player (Steve Duchene)

20th OVA player in his 5th year in the league (Kerry Huffman although at that point was a throw in)

4th OVA pick in 1990 (Mike Ricci who put up 2 straight 40+ point seasons in his first 2 years in the league)

so lets summarize it a bit 

5 - 1st's

1 - 2nd

1 - Bottom 6 forward

1 - Starting Hall of Fame caliber Goalie

15 Million dollars

Yeah that definitely equals 3 1st's 

1. Ron Hextall... not a hall of famer. He was a good goalie but already 28 at the time of the trade, so not a huge component.

2. The future considerations was actually a make-up for one 1st round pick but because of legal issues with the trade being annulled and then re-instituted by an arbitrator, that draft had already passed.

So the trade at the time the Flyers and Nords agreed to it was for Forsberg, Ricci, Hextall, Duchesne, Huffman, and two first rounders. And as you said, the two 1st's were one 10th overall and one unknown pick. Players also have less value in trades once they are already picked, so I wouldn't equate Hoffman with a 1st rounder in a deal, that's not really equivalent. Try trading Ryan Poehling now for a 1st round pick or Mike McCarron or Nikita Scherbak five years after their drafts and that isn't going to happen.

The actual trade was thus more Lindros for 4 first-round equivalents (Forsberg, Ricci, a 10th overall, and a future 1st rounder) along with some add-on parts in Duchesne, Hextall, and Huffman. Also need to keep in mind that 1st round picks were less valued back in that era and were frequently traded willy-nilly (look at the Chris Gratton trade for example). I'd argue that 3 first-rounders would have more value now in a cap world than they did 30 years ago (when the game was slower, guys played for longer, and less of the game was built on speed nor were there as many international players), and I'd argue that 2nd, 3rd, and something like 8th overall have more value than a 4th overall that already happened, 6th overall that already happened, 10th overall, and a future 1st (which could have been a pick in the 20's).

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1 minute ago, BigTed3 said:

I'd argue that 3 first-rounders would have more value now in a cap world than they did 30 years ago (when the game was slower, guys played for longer, and less of the game was built on speed nor were there as many international players), and I'd argue that 2nd, 3rd, and something like 8th overall have more value than a 4th overall that already happened, 6th overall that already happened, 10th overall, and a future 1st (which could have been a pick in the 20's).

This.

You cant really compare drafts from year to year (you think the oilers wouldnt have traded 1st overall in 2012 for 3 top 10 picks? lol ) and you really cant compare drafts from 30 years ago.

I think its all moot though because no one is making that trade, but i do think that if it was even a posibility there would definitely be a GM who would want it.

For us to get 1st ov you'd either have to win the lottery or be prepared to give up our first round pick (Presumably top 6-9 by the looks of things) and Suzuki, Romanov & probably Kotkeimi. Even that may not be enough. Depends what team wins the lottery and what their needs are.  If its a team like NJ or Detriot they arent giving up 1st because they already have a supporting cast of good young prospects, but a team that lacks any true good young talent might prefer 3 elite players to 1 franchise guy. 

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4 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

1. Ron Hextall... not a hall of famer. He was a good goalie but already 28 at the time of the trade, so not a huge component.

2. The future considerations was actually a make-up for one 1st round pick but because of legal issues with the trade being annulled and then re-instituted by an arbitrator, that draft had already passed.

So the trade at the time the Flyers and Nords agreed to it was for Forsberg, Ricci, Hextall, Duchesne, Huffman, and two first rounders. And as you said, the two 1st's were one 10th overall and one unknown pick. Players also have less value in trades once they are already picked, so I wouldn't equate Hoffman with a 1st rounder in a deal, that's not really equivalent. Try trading Ryan Poehling now for a 1st round pick or Mike McCarron or Nikita Scherbak five years after their drafts and that isn't going to happen.

The actual trade was thus more Lindros for 4 first-round equivalents (Forsberg, Ricci, a 10th overall, and a future 1st rounder) along with some add-on parts in Duchesne, Hextall, and Huffman. Also need to keep in mind that 1st round picks were less valued back in that era and were frequently traded willy-nilly (look at the Chris Gratton trade for example). I'd argue that 3 first-rounders would have more value now in a cap world than they did 30 years ago (when the game was slower, guys played for longer, and less of the game was built on speed nor were there as many international players), and I'd argue that 2nd, 3rd, and something like 8th overall have more value than a 4th overall that already happened, 6th overall that already happened, 10th overall, and a future 1st (which could have been a pick in the 20's).

1. Your right Hextall has not made the Hall my apologies I assumed he had at this point

2. I actually didn't include Huffman in the 5 1st's he was included as the 1 bottom 6 forward. 5 - 1st's were (Forsberg, Ricci, Thibeau,Simon and Baumgartner) if you include Huffman than it was actually 6 - 1st's

Like has been stated many times on numerous threads - ANY trade is possible but not really probable - I was just saying that given the choice of trading 1st OVA of a potential franchise player for 3 good players - I would pass and keep the pick and that I would rather try and trade for a second shot at the lottery.

Besides all of this why is it that I am immediately ridiculed and even told flat out that my proposed opinion is ridiculous and the original posters idea was entertained. Neither scenario is more likely to happen than the other.

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Lol I’m loving the traction this question is getting! 

To keep it in line I think we should keep in mind the difference between a franchise talent and a generational talent. Crosby, McDavid and Lindros were generational talents. Lafreniere, from what I understand is looked at as a franchise talent. Still a big deal, but more in line with a Mathews or a Hall. 

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4 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Lol I’m loving the traction this question is getting! 

To keep it in line I think we should keep in mind the difference between a franchise talent and a generational talent. Crosby, McDavid and Lindros were generational talents. Lafreniere, from what I understand is looked at as a franchise talent. Still a big deal, but more in line with a Mathews or a Hall. 

Indeed. And also what those other players would be.  We have been using the McDavid draft as a comaparison & while McDavid is a generational talent guys like Eichel, Marner, Provorov, Werenski are all elite talents. First line elite, first paring D.  Not generational for sure, but its disingenuous to call them merely "good players" as has been said in this thread.  

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1 hour ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Lol I’m loving the traction this question is getting! 

To keep it in line I think we should keep in mind the difference between a franchise talent and a generational talent. Crosby, McDavid and Lindros were generational talents. Lafreniere, from what I understand is looked at as a franchise talent. Still a big deal, but more in line with a Mathews or a Hall. 

Lafreniere, if I had to put a comparable out there in terms of level of talent, would be in line to me with someone like Vinny Lecavalier. Dominant player who could easily boost your team's Cup chances. Maybe not a generational talent like Crosby or McDavid but he has the potential to be on par with a player like Matthews, like you said, or a Tavares. The thought, regardless, is that he instantly becomes your player with the highest ceiling, and that's what the Habs have been missing for many many years: a true elite skill player.

The concept of the trade becomes interesting because there's a chance that a guy like Stutzle, who has flown under the radar for the most part, could end up being just as productive as Lafreniere over time. I'd compare Stutzle to a Matt Barzal type player who kind of got overlooked at the draft but rapidly became a first-line player. You look at Trevor Zegras, for example, and that's another guy that at the time of the 2019 draft I said could be the biggest steal of the draft and might actually end up having a better career then Hughes or Kakko. He's a bit more of a gamble, but he was one of my favorite draftees at the time. Similarly, you go back to 2017 and the debate was largely Hischier vs. Patrick, but Heiskanen, Makar, and Pettersson have all established themselves as being more valuable thus far. I'd venture that Lafreniere is probably the best talent to come into a draft since Matthews, but nevertheless, you could have other guys who prove to be just as good down the line in his own draft year. At this point, I personally really like Stutzle, Drysdale, and Holtz, and if you told me I could get all three in exchange for Lafreniere, I would think about it.

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1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

1. Your right Hextall has not made the Hall my apologies I assumed he had at this point

2. I actually didn't include Huffman in the 5 1st's he was included as the 1 bottom 6 forward. 5 - 1st's were (Forsberg, Ricci, Thibeau,Simon and Baumgartner) if you include Huffman than it was actually 6 - 1st's

Like has been stated many times on numerous threads - ANY trade is possible but not really probable - I was just saying that given the choice of trading 1st OVA of a potential franchise player for 3 good players - I would pass and keep the pick and that I would rather try and trade for a second shot at the lottery.

Besides all of this why is it that I am immediately ridiculed and even told flat out that my proposed opinion is ridiculous and the original posters idea was entertained. Neither scenario is more likely to happen than the other.

Just to be clear, no one is ridiculing you for throwing out an idea, but I think Jedi and I both disagree in general with the value you placed on Domi or Drouin and would argue that point with you. I also don't think anyone is definitively saying they would or would not trade Lafreniere, but there's more debate when you're talking about lesser-known entities. No one knows how well Lafreniere will do or how well three picks in the top 8-10 would do.

In Domi or Drouin's case, we largely know what they're capable of, and as such, I think GM's aren't going to sell you three quality assets for that. You look at the lottery picks that have changed hands via trade in the past little while and these aren't picks that were traded once they were known to be lottery picks. For the most part, these are picks that are traded by teams before they know they've missed the playoffs... Ottawa trading a 1st to Colorado for Duchene for example and then having their season go rock-bottom. Or San Jose giving Ottawa a 1st for Karlsson a while ago and then suffering a collapse this year. Those teams didn't think the picks they were giving up would be lottery picks. I don't know that any team is willingly giving you a pick that has a 5-10% chance of becoming the 1st overall and a 20-30% chance of being a top 3 pick in exchange for a 2nd-line forward and they certainly wouldn't be doing it giving you two other quality assets at the same time. Likewise, I don't think you would be giving up our 1st round lottery pick this year and then throwing in an "A level prospect" like Romanov and a recent 2nd rounder like Ylonen in exchange for someone like Elias Lindholm or Nikolaj Ehlers. That's the essence of the trade you proposed but from the other perspective.

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18 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Just to be clear, no one is ridiculing you for throwing out an idea, but I think Jedi and I both disagree in general with the value you placed on Domi or Drouin and would argue that point with you. I also don't think anyone is definitively saying they would or would not trade Lafreniere, but there's more debate when you're talking about lesser-known entities. No one knows how well Lafreniere will do or how well three picks in the top 8-10 would do.

In Domi or Drouin's case, we largely know what they're capable of, and as such, I think GM's aren't going to sell you three quality assets for that. You look at the lottery picks that have changed hands via trade in the past little while and these aren't picks that were traded once they were known to be lottery picks. For the most part, these are picks that are traded by teams before they know they've missed the playoffs... Ottawa trading a 1st to Colorado for Duchene for example and then having their season go rock-bottom. Or San Jose giving Ottawa a 1st for Karlsson a while ago and then suffering a collapse this year. Those teams didn't think the picks they were giving up would be lottery picks. I don't know that any team is willingly giving you a pick that has a 5-10% chance of becoming the 1st overall and a 20-30% chance of being a top 3 pick in exchange for a 2nd-line forward and they certainly wouldn't be doing it giving you two other quality assets at the same time. Likewise, I don't think you would be giving up our 1st round lottery pick this year and then throwing in an "A level prospect" like Romanov and a recent 2nd rounder like Ylonen in exchange for someone like Elias Lindholm or Nikolaj Ehlers. That's the essence of the trade you proposed but from the other perspective.

I don't think our value of Drouin and Domi are far off. I just figured a team like Ottawa might view Domi as their 1st line center. Also I didn't think that either Gustoffson or Formenton were that highly touted. It was one of the reasons I didn't suggest someone like Adramov or Branstrom. I figured most of the value coming back was in that 1st with the others just being b or c level prospects mostly cause I don't follow minors much.

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5 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I don't think our value of Drouin and Domi are far off. I just figured a team like Ottawa might view Domi as their 1st line center. Also I didn't think that either Gustoffson or Formenton were that highly touted. It was one of the reasons I didn't suggest someone like Adramov or Branstrom. I figured most of the value coming back was in that 1st with the others just being b or c level prospects mostly cause I don't follow minors much.

To expand a little I viewed Formenton more as a Hudon tupe of prospect and Gustoffson as a Lindgren I guess I was undervalueing them

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20 hours ago, campabee82 said:

The better option for me would be to go to Ottawa and offer either Drouin or Domi for SJ 1st + A prospect + Alex Formenton then you have 2 lottery firsts of your own and potentially a decent backup. Would it hurt sending either Domi or Drouin to Ottawa absolutely but maybe both lottery picks hit and your picking 1 and 3 or 2 and 3 or whatever but even if they don't hit the worst the SJ pick can end up at right now is 8th and the worst the Habs pick can end up at is 12th and this draft has a ton of tallent in the top 10-12 picks. But I think a trade like this has to happen now before the lottery is drawn cause no way the Sens trade it if the pick hits top 5

 

3 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I don't think our value of Drouin and Domi are far off. I just figured a team like Ottawa might view Domi as their 1st line center. Also I didn't think that either Gustoffson or Formenton were that highly touted. It was one of the reasons I didn't suggest someone like Adramov or Branstrom. I figured most of the value coming back was in that 1st with the others just being b or c level prospects mostly cause I don't follow minors much.

If I go back to your original post, though, you didn't write anything about Gustafsson, you wrote an "A prospect"... without harping on that though, I still don't think the Sens would trade a 1st round lottery pick for Domi straight up, never mind what the other two assets are. Again, I'll come back to that question for you... if you look at a comparable player to Drouin or Domi like Elias Lindholm or Nikolaj Ehlers, would you give up our lottery pick for that player (before the lottery has been drawn)? Would you give up whatever we end up with (say a 5-10% chance at Lafreniere and a 20-30% chance at a top 3 pick) for a 2nd line player like that? Even if Domi walks in and wins a top-line spot in Ottawa, his talent level is that of a 2nd-line player. I'm not giving up a lottery pick pre-lottery for Lindholm nor Ehlers nor Drouin nor Domi. Maybe after the lottery is done, you can talk about whether someone would give up a 10th or 15th overall pick for one of those guys, but in a good draft like this one, I don't see anyone giving up a chance at a top 3 pick that could be elite in exchange for a second-rate player... power to you if you feel differently, but I don't see Ottawa doing that and I wouldn't see the Habs doing something similar if the position was reversed.

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

If I go back to your original post, though, you didn't write anything about Gustafsson, you wrote an "A prospect"... without harping on that though, I still don't think the Sens would trade a 1st round lottery pick for Domi straight up, never mind what the other two assets are. Again, I'll come back to that question for you... if you look at a comparable player to Drouin or Domi like Elias Lindholm or Nikolaj Ehlers, would you give up our lottery pick for that player (before the lottery has been drawn)? Would you give up whatever we end up with (say a 5-10% chance at Lafreniere and a 20-30% chance at a top 3 pick) for a 2nd line player like that? Even if Domi walks in and wins a top-line spot in Ottawa, his talent level is that of a 2nd-line player. I'm not giving up a lottery pick pre-lottery for Lindholm nor Ehlers nor Drouin nor Domi. Maybe after the lottery is done, you can talk about whether someone would give up a 10th or 15th overall pick for one of those guys, but in a good draft like this one, I don't see anyone giving up a chance at a top 3 pick that could be elite in exchange for a second-rate player... power to you if you feel differently, but I don't see Ottawa doing that and I wouldn't see the Habs doing something similar if the position was reversed.

LOL I meant a prospect not an A prospect and I originally had Gustoffson in the post then thought about it and changed it to a prospect my phone must have Auto corrected it

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18 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I read somewhere a few days ago (some blog or something) that Bergevin should offer sheet Sergachev. That'd be funny. TB, more than other teams, is pretty darn tight against the cap at all times. Offer Sergachev $5-6 million and they might be forced to let him go. Who knows?

But if you were Sergachev... would you sign that offer sheet? :4224:

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So was looking around to see if MB made any other OS's last season and actually found a clip on TSN where he said he didn't offer either Point or Marner an OS that in fact he never tendered another on other than Aho. More interesting was what he said when asked about trade offers for Primeau. Basically it comes down to this unless the trade involved a 1C he was not interested. On the one hand I am glad he isn't giving up the future #1 goalie on the other hand he needs to be more realistic when listening to trade proposals otherwise other GM's are going to stop dealing with him. Here is the link below:

https://www.tsn.ca/montreal-canadiens-gm-marc-bergevin-says-he-did-not-try-to-offer-sheet-mitch-marner-or-brayden-point-1.1372585

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41 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

So was looking around to see if MB made any other OS's last season and actually found a clip on TSN where he said he didn't offer either Point or Marner an OS that in fact he never tendered another on other than Aho. More interesting was what he said when asked about trade offers for Primeau. Basically it comes down to this unless the trade involved a 1C he was not interested. On the one hand I am glad he isn't giving up the future #1 goalie on the other hand he needs to be more realistic when listening to trade proposals otherwise other GM's are going to stop dealing with him. Here is the link below:

https://www.tsn.ca/montreal-canadiens-gm-marc-bergevin-says-he-did-not-try-to-offer-sheet-mitch-marner-or-brayden-point-1.1372585

 

16 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Yeah, I mean, I don't think you actually OFFER an offer sheet unless you've discussed with the agent/player and they've informed you of their willingness to sign the deal. So, perhaps Bergevin has made overtures about specific players (e.g. Point), but never actually made an offer.

Yes, there were actually reports that Bergevin had had discussions with Brayden Point's agent about offer-sheeting him but Point flat out wasn't interested in leaving Tampa, so they never signed anything. There was no... point.

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4 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Yeah, I mean, I don't think you actually OFFER an offer sheet unless you've discussed with the agent/player and they've informed you of their willingness to sign the deal. So, perhaps Bergevin has made overtures about specific players (e.g. Point), but never actually made an offer.

This.  

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On 2020-03-02 at 0:46 PM, maas_art said:

For us to get 1st ov you'd either have to win the lottery or be prepared to give up our first round pick (Presumably top 6-9 by the looks of things) and Suzuki, Romanov & probably Kotkeimi. Even that may not be enough. Depends what team wins the lottery and what their needs are.  If its a team like NJ or Detriot they arent giving up 1st because they already have a supporting cast of good young prospects, but a team that lacks any true good young talent might prefer 3 elite players to 1 franchise guy. 

Definitely, lottery is the only way. And I highly, highly doubt anyone would trade it. When even is the last time someone knowingly traded the top pick? Fun to speculate though. It’s something I would consider, but I’m not a GM, my job isn’t on the line. It would take balls of concrete to make a move like that. I remember thinking Edmonton should have traded theirs when they instead drafted Yakopov. But fit wise, I think a team that is already stacked with star power would be best suited to attempt a crazy move like trading a 1st overall.

But I’m optimistic, hopefully we can win the pick. Just in case we do (and even regardless of if we do) I’d like to see us try Domi and Drouin in Tatar’s spot down the stretch. It would be worth knowing which of the two are the better fit on that line (I suspect it would be Domi, but who knows). But assuming we do win the lottery, we would be in a good place to trade Tatar and one of Domi or Drouin to find an answer to our LD question (along with adding more picks/prospects). I’ve stated before that I consider Drouin and Domi as “untradable”, but Lafreniere would certainly change that a bit. Could you imagine a lineup like this...

Domi-Danult-Gallagher

Lafreniere-Suzuki-Armia

Byron-Kotkaniemi-??????

Lehkonen-Poehling-Evans

Not sure who to put on Kotkaniemi’s line. I suppose Kovalchuk if we sign him, or possibly another FA. Is there someone already in our system that I’m forgetting? I believe Caufield will choose to turn pro, but I’m hoping they keep him in Laval until he forces himself into the lineup. Though that would be a nice mid-season addition! And I really like Drouin, but he might be the necessary piece to land us Byram ++

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2 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Hypothetical.

Let's say Montreal has the, hmmmmmmmm, eighth overall draft pick in 2020. Would anyone trade the first overall pick for the eighth overall, a 2020 second rounder, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Brook?

I don't see any movement that high in the draft, except for maybe a spot or two BUT I think you're getting the price about right. Three good young players and one that has a high ceiling. I think it would take something like Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, the 8th overall and a second. I wouldn't do it. 

I would make you're trade though, but I don't think it would be quite enough

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10 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Hypothetical.

Let's say Montreal has the, hmmmmmmmm, eighth overall draft pick in 2020. Would anyone trade the first overall pick for the eighth overall, a 2020 second rounder, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Brook?

Would you, if you had Lafrenier at the 1st? Those picks, and those players mentioned (except for Suzuki) are basically unproven. 

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25 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Hypothetical.

Let's say Montreal has the, hmmmmmmmm, eighth overall draft pick in 2020. Would anyone trade the first overall pick for the eighth overall, a 2020 second rounder, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, and Brook?

 

20 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I don't see any movement that high in the draft, except for maybe a spot or two BUT I think you're getting the price about right. Three good young players and one that has a high ceiling. I think it would take something like Kotkaniemi, Suzuki, the 8th overall and a second. I wouldn't do it. 

I would make you're trade though, but I don't think it would be quite enough

I think its basically impossible 1st gets moved because it would (as Malmacian said) take balls of steel. No GM is likely to move Lafreniere.  However, IF it somehow did happen i think it would take two things:

 

1) You'd need a team that already has elite talent. Buffalo for example, if they won the lottery, already have Eichel and Dahlin and some very nice pieces like Oloffson, Reinhart, etc.   So would they be better with one player (Lafreniere) or say 4 or 5 good players?   I could see you enticing them with a package that includes Suzuki, Domi, Romanov, and probably a couple of other pieces. Ottawa, if they win 1st OVA are not moving that pick - no way, shape or form. They need a superstar talent as much as we do.  Now you could certainly argue that trading for that pick is foolish - i mean we'd be 100% in a rebuild at that point - but what a guy to rebuild around. 

2) Our own pick has to be higher. I just cant see any team trading away 1st for a package that drops them back to like 8th or 9th.  If we have say the 3rd or 4th pick.. .maybe you have some wiggle room.  They cant get their 1st choice (Lafreniere) but after him there's a fair bit of dispute so its not out of the question that a team ends up getting the guy they wanted 2nd most with say the 4th pick. 

 

Again, i totally think its moot. I dont think anyone is moving that 1st OVA pick but i think it would take a ridiculous offer to make it happen. 

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